[pjd2]

Hi I am new to the concept of peak oil. I just found out about it about a week ago. I wish I would have found out about it sooner, because I wish I had time to prepare.

Here is my situation:
25 yr old male. Living with his parents in a suburb of chicago.
Chemist with a masters degree: makes decent money.
Just paid off a 12k credit card debt.
Have 15k in student loans. (if possible can pay off in 5 months, but wont have any other essentials like food etc.)
I am in pretty good shape, but Ive lived in the burbs all my life, and am scared I will not have the skills to cut it.
Am scarred/depressed sh**less

What I've done:
Tried to talk to parents/friends about it, but they give the typical aint gonna happen shpeil.
Joined two suburban/city peak oil groups. Can't hurt to network.
Bought a wilderness survival book.

Have some questions: What esle should I buy/do?
Is a gun essential? (I hate guns, but survival is most important).
How do you people cope, especially doomsday scenario people?

Any help is appreciated.

Pat

[Barbara]

Welcome Pat.
Being a chemist, you're far more better than other people here: a chemist will forever be in high value (learn low-tech chemistry... if something like this exist! LOL).
You're almost free from debt, which is great. You joined two peakoil groups. You bought a book on survival... well, you did more in one week that most people here did in one year!

About guns, I can't help because I'm in the EU and no guns are allowed here (and people hate them).

What you can do more? Go visit those uncles/relatives/grandpa or whatever you have in the country and always found veeery boooring! Don't speak about peakoil, just listen their teachings and look around for a place for you to stay in the future.

Welcome again, Barbara

[pjd2]

Thanks Barbara,

That makes me feel better.
My family has pretty much always been in the chicagoland area, ever since my ancestors got off the boat. So there isn't a lot of people I know that farm. I have an aunt and step-uncle that live in downstate illinois, and a couple of college friends who lived on farms (until they got theyre degrees and moved city wise).

Drunkedly I joked with a friend of mine that if I ever cant find a job ill come be a sharecropper on his farm. I might just have to take him up on that offer.

[venky]

Nobody can predict what will happen post Peak Oil. You will figure that out after spending sometime on this site.

Dont worry about the 'time to prepare' thing. From what I read you seem to be better off than most people. People with your skills will always be required.
In anycase the first few years post peak oil will probably be a repeat of the 70's. What happens after that is impossible to say, but generally speaking things can be expected to stay much the same in most parts of the world (even if there is and energy shock and recession) for sometime to come, probably for a decade or more.

[MonteQuest]

Pat,

I have been following this for over 30 years. Not peakoil per se, but the overarching driving force behind it and it's consequences.

There are two big unknowns:

1. How much oil can still be recovered.

2. What the rate of decline will be.

Without knowing these things, it is very hard to predict who is, and who is not, prepared.

Move forward knowing that everything is going to get more expensive...just like it has been, but at a greater rate and magnitude.

Spend some time reading the Planning for the Future and Psychology forum. Many of your questions have already been addressed.

MQ

[Jack]

Welcome to Peak Oil, pjd2.

I'm one of the worst of the doomers, as others will no doubt tell you. That being said, I suspect you're in pretty good shape. Your degree in Chemistry should hold up well; in fact, I expect you'll still be making a good income 3 years from now.

You probably don't need to worry too much about your parents. A sense of urgency is normal, but it takes time for events to transpire. They will notice the increase in natural gas and gasoline prices. They will see the news headlines as matters develop. Ultimately, they will realize that something is wrong - and then, you will be there for them.

It might be a good idea to get into really good physical condition - perhaps a gym membership (find an inexpensive one. There are far too many rip-offs) and get a combination of weight training and cardiovascular training.

Cultivate contacts with lots of people - the security guard at work, perhaps. The waiter at your favorite restaurant, maybe. Your coworkers, definitely. The neighbors, maybe. Any nurses or paramedics - absolutley. They can be valuable sources of information; and, perhaps, other things as well. A plate of home-baked cookies, a box of doughnuts, or other such things are inexpensive, but are effective ice-breakers.

You ask about guns, and I seem to recall that your area has restrictive laws. I, personally, think that having a firearm is a good idea. A pump-action shotgun is inexpensive, is effective at close range, and could be quite useful. Be sure to check your local laws!

I hope you enjoy your time here.

[pjd2]

Thanks everyone so far.

Jack, I currently have a gym membership, and I just ran a marathon, so right now Im not too worried about my physical shape.

Ill head on over to the other forums and check out some of the other news. (Ive already done quite a bit of lurking).

Most likely I will get a gun within the next year. I am also going to be trained for emergency response (CPR/basic first aid) by my work in the spring. (If I still have a job. you doomsayers.)

Ill prolly keep buying books and networking, but this shizzle scares the beejeezus out of me.

[trespam]

pjd2: I can provide you some pointers at some point. For the time being, just remember: (1) There is a hell of a lot of oil remaining. Over half. (2) We use far more oil that we need to (3) people have been predicting the end of the world for a long time. (4) this site is moderated by and large by some folks who are very very negative. Some are genocides and would like to kill people in other countries in order to steal their resources. Others believe in goverment conspiracy theories. Be cautious.

As far as background, I'm 45, got degrees in physics, mathematics, engineeiring, and applied physics from UCSD in San Diego. I've got 10 years experience at a company called Bolt Beranek and Newman (created original internet) and another ten years at QUALCOMM (wireless communications powerhouse).

Right now, I'm a retired investor.

That said, please take your time. Don't let the doomers get to you. I personally find their negativism appaling and a disgrage to the problem of peak oil, but you be the judge. They're amusing at times, but add little value to the discussion.

[RonMN]

Being afraid is quite natural when you first learn of PO. I also suggest a gun (shotgun & .22 & maybe a good pellet gun), but i would also suggest taking a firearms safety training class usually offered by the city.

In my opinion one of the most valuable tools will simply be ready to adapt to change. And to have a few preparations on hand...you don't need a year supply of food, but look how valuable a lousy 2 gallons of water would have been to those people on the rooftops in new orleans right now.

Not to mention, with each new prep i do...i feel less anxiety...so even if somehow i don't need those preps, they still made me breathe easier.

Welcome!

[trespam]

Another important point to remember: Survivalism and peak oil are completely different topics. We've got people on this site right now using most of the bandwidth to say "katrina, earthquake, supply kits" "See, told you so....blah blah blah."

What I say? If you live in a two story house, no how to get out if there is a fire. Have life insurance. Have health insurance. Have water. And the rest of that kind of stuff.

Peak oil has nothing to do with survivalism but they collect hear anyway. Some of the people involved with peak oil were the same ones planning for Y2K.

that said, peak oil is real. Just separate the issues carefully. You're more likely to die of food poisoning or auto accident than peak oil. Though you'd never know it from reading stuff posted here.

[pjd2]

Thats totally the way I want to see it, and I appreciate the support. I've spent the last week. In a zombie haze, semi depressed and haven
't been sleeping normal hours.
Talking to people like you guys (the royal guys for you ladies) helps, and I'd like to be prepared.
I'm scared about some of the possible scenarios.

For instance; On CNN today there is reports of a near for sure recession due to Katrina. If a global recession occurs, could a global depression follow? I would not be prepared for this even if it were three years down the road.

::sigh:: I guess its just one day at a time.

[trespam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pjd2', 'T')hats totally the way I want to see it, and I appreciate the support. I've spent the last week. In a zombie haze, semi depressed and haven
't been sleeping normal hours.
Talking to people like you guys (the royal guys for you ladies) helps, and I'd like to be prepared.
I'm scared about some of the possible scenarios.

For instance; On CNN today there is reports of a near for sure recession due to Katrina. If a global recession occurs, could a global depression follow? I would not be prepared for this even if it were three years down the road.

::sigh:: I guess its just one day at a time.

BTW: my real name is Patrick. PJD comes from my nickname. PJDangerous

[LadyRuby]

I don't really see a fast collapse of society. As someone else pointed out, just think how much oil could be saved simply through conservation. I understand that when it's all so new and fresh you feel like all your dreams are for nothing. It takes some getting used to the idea that society will be different. I don't agree with many of the super-doomers here that it will be a complete collapse of society. So relax, keep preparing by getting out of debt and knowing what your options are, etc. Also, as far as living there are shared communities you can look into as well. For example, one in Illinois but they're all over the country:
http://www.stellecommunity.com/index.html

[trespam]

Another pointer. My post on the hopelessly hopeless, the hopelessly optimistic, and the realists [link]

A couple of other pointers:

1. the news posted here every day is good. Keep to to date with it. but also checkout oildrum and energybulletin (i'll let you google).

2. James Hamilton, at UCSD, is an economist focusing on energy. He's been interacting with the dudes at OilDrum. Check him out also. I'd provide links but I'm too lazy right now. I'll make you do the googling.

3. I give the doomers shit here 'cause it's fun and I think they detract from the discussion like a crazy aunt screaming in the attic detracts from a normal dinner conversation. Nothing you can do with the crazy aunt. Nothing you can do with the doomers. They've been dooming since the development of agriculture (actually a pretty nasty step in human development on the path to overshoot). There was some doomer blogger-want-to-be-hunter-gatherer screaming about the agriculturalists. Nobody listened.

4. And don't forget: 6 billion people guaranteed to die over the next century. Nothing we can do about it. If something bad don't get 'em, old age will.

Have fun.

[pjd2]

Thanks trespan,
I'll google away to my hearts content. I don't mean to sound whiney or anything. Its just a sudden shock to my well being.

I just look at everything around me and realize how much non-renewables there are involved. Not just oil. Coming face to face, with not only your own mortality, but the potential mortality of everyone on the earth present and future is kindof an awaking. It's like that machine in one of the Hitchikers guides books where it allows you to enter the Total Perspecitive vortex. It's a dealing process.

I've taken Biology courses on the subject (the earth as a biosphere) and for some reason it never hit me until just last week.
I doubt It will be the worst case scenarios Ive seen posted, but I know it wont be roses either.
I'm learning to deal.

Thanks for the support.
Pat

[Pops]

I get the feeling that all the PO Doom sprouting lately Trespam has hurt some of your investments.

Anyway Pat, my thought, for what it’s worth, is that one should go with their existing skills and inclinations. I’m not really sure what the connotations of survivalist are but aside from joining a militia, buying a ton of weapons or being extremely religious (I fail those tests) but I could probably fall in the classification due to my interest in trying to be as independent from energy costs as possible. But like anything else, just take the part that woks for you.

If you are interested in wilderness survival then go for it, if on the other hand if you have never been closer to the wilderness than the city park then perhaps you should expand your skills in other directions such as medicine as you mentioned. But the main thing is not to simply proceed into the old trap of becoming so specialized that you need a 1,000 other specialists just to survive (oh that dread survival word again).

Anyway take it easy and research everything you can before swallowing it whole - after a while the idea sort of becomes ingrained and the little panic attacks go away - somewhat.

[trespam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') get the feeling that all the PO Doom sprouting lately Trespam has hurt some of your investments.

[Barbara]

I think your main concern now is losing your job, losing money, losing our "way of life". I think this is just unavoidable in the future: our way of life is not made to last. It's impossible. We enjoyed heaven on earth, in the past not even emperors live in same luxuries any western middle class person live today. How can it go on?
Being prepared, to me, it's not about having 10 gallons of water and gasoline in the cellar. Being prepared means asking to elders what WWII here in the EU was; means the deep certainty that our way of life is an anomaly in history. Most of us will lose their jobs, sooner or later: who will need, say, a cartoonist or an interior designer in a depression or a big energy crisis?
Being a chemist, it will be not hard for you to figure an alternative job in your field which will pay you a salary in bad times. For us so-called "literates", it will be much harder...

[kelee877]

Welcome..I am prepper, like to be prepared for whatever SHTF..I started 5 years ago..mine is a different story, cause I packed what I coud one day in my car and moved 500 miles away from my home town(it was getting to big). Anyways start with baby steps..plan on a 3-5 survival pack..A BOB bag as we call it..water food and rope matches..there alot of good sites that people will show you how they have packed these bags..most of us are on a tight budget when it cames to the extra prep items..and the pre-done bags may not have what you like
Try this site for some usefull information on prepping for the long run..
www.timebomb2000.com
they are very helpfull in the preps department..for example if you are going to store flour, you have to freeze it for 2 weeks, gets rid of small bugs that can grow in it..
And again welcome take care..

[kelee877]

I would like to also say is; depending on your location..what do you have to get ready for?
I think Katrina was an eye opener for me, I am in the cold thundra of the north, so my preperations may vary from yours.. I have to be ready for snowstorms..which means alternative heat sources, food enough for days on end, althou I think I have enough for a year.
Do you think in terms of long term or short term, are you thinking a pandemic, where you might be confined to your house for years..
You have opened the perverbel can of worms..it deepends on what you are looking at as to how to get ready..p.s yes I look at all possibilities..