[MrBill]

Well, I am guessing that the shock of Katerina - at the pump and the psychological images of regional shortages - will likely depress gasoline demand from 9.5 mbpd to 8.5-8.8 mbpd in the short to medium term (it was already down to 9.287 mbpd last week YOY) with overall demand falling about 1.1% to 20.789 mbpd. Gasoline demand is inelastic, but apparently there is still some discretion on how much or often to drive and certainly surcharges on airfares will cut into discretionary flights. That will help to relieve some price pressure, but, of course, Americans are still going to have a long, cold winter with natgas prices close to $12 bcf or +/- 70% higher than last year. That plus higher interest rates will crimp disposable income at a time when the savings rate was already a negative 0.6% of income. I think at the margins it is going to affect consumer attitudes and overall consumption of all goods & services?

[azreal60]

Mr bill and pj, glad to have you aboard. And no, your not in the wrong place.

There is an important thing to keep in mind when talking about peak oil. Well, hundreds of them, but one very germaine to this discussion. And that is, the path we are on Right now is the one that is not sustainable and leading us to the worst case senario that the doomers say is what is going to happen. No one says we can not change that path. Where the arguement i think should be is are we too far down that path to effectively change it, and are people going to believe enough people in time to actually understand how to change it. I can tell one person about peak oil and effectively make them believe, but are they going to go out and change their life because of what i say? That's a hard question to answer.

I guess i would say take the best survival tips you can get, at the worst you know more than you did before. Try to plan your life without oil, and at worst you simply are living in a less oil based world than before. I know i believe that this is going to be a huge life altering issue, which is why i am glad i discovered this site. I would say however that like all life altering issues, it need not be met with depression. Being depressed about the end of your way of life isn't going to change it. It's simply going to make you less able to deal with the changes that come. Change is the one constant we can count on in life. Learn to enjoy it.

[cephlon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow long have you known about peak oil?
How do you cope with the nagging negative/hoplessness feelings?

[pjd2]

Hi cephlon.
It's been three weeks, and the topic has begun to settle with me, but I fear I am becoming more of a doomer by the minute.
I joined the peakoil group, and was interested in going. I will most likely be there and hopefully see you there too.
Thanks for the input too. Right now I have been putting my finances in order as well, and am learning/doing as much as I can given what I have.

Thanks again for the note.
pj