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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The hopeless, the Optimists, and the Realists

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: The hopeless, the Optimists, and the Realists

Unread postby bart » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 14:30:49

Can I give an analogy?

Sick person comes to a self-trained doctor. Self-trained doctor says, "Hopeless. Nothing you can do."

Has the self-trained doctor advocated anything? No.
Does his lack of judgment cause suffering? Yes.

MQ has set himself up as an expert. As far as I can tell, he is self-trained and doesn't have connections with an academic institution or with other people working in the field. These connections don't guarantee truth, but they weed out cranky theories and obvious errors.

Most of the time, self-proclaimed experts are harmless; they're writing about invisible energies or strange archaeololgical findings.

Unfortunately, Monte posts voluminously on a site devoted to a critical problem, frequented by newbies. Also, peakoil.com is a site where outsiders come to get an impression of Peak Oil people.

Personally, I'm sure he's a great guy. As I said, he's sincere and works hard. So, this isn't about personal criticism.

Nor is it about different opinions. I agree with much of what MQ says.

The problem is that he's dug himself into an intellectual hole; he's not getting or listening to feedback that would keep him connected to reality. If anyone is serious about social theories, they don't work alone and post proclamations on a loosely moderated discussion board. That's not how significant intellectual work takes place.

As counter examples, consider Richard Heinberg or Julian Darley. They write about the same material, but they're publishing books, speaking in public, getting feedback from professionals in the field.
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Re: The hopeless, the Optimists, and the Realists

Unread postby bart » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 14:48:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')o predict resource wars when you are in one is not "inventing from scratch."


Predicting resource wars I agree with, as do many others. As you say, it's not hard to predict a resource war when you're in one!

The problem is a dismissal of "Powerdown" -- political and social action. In this, you are way out of line and your predictions can be harmful. Check out other people working in the field. They recognize the dangers of making fatalistic predictions in an uncertain field. It is of critical importance to outline a positive program for change. Heinberg and Darley are very careful to point a direction for people to go.
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Re: The hopeless, the Optimists, and the Realists

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 15:05:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', 'T')he problem is that he's dug himself into an intellectual hole; he's not getting or listening to feedback that would keep him connected to reality. If anyone is serious about social theories, they don't work alone and post proclamations on a loosely moderated discussion board. That's not how significant intellectual work takes place.

As counter examples, consider Richard Heinberg or Julian Darley. They write about the same material, but they're publishing books, speaking in public, getting feedback from professionals in the field.


Really? I"m glad you know so much about my affiliations and connections. How do you know who I am listening to? I speak regularly in public and read extensively and primarily outside of peakoil.com. I am drawing upon my years of front-line involvement with the NPS, US Forest Servive, US Fish and Wildlife, and local and state agencies involved in resource management for much of what I write. I work with Sustainable Arizona and sit on the excecutive board with the local Sierra Club.

Again, you make assumptions that I am not connected to reality.

Perhaps this observation shows your denial of the reality around you.
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Re: The hopeless, the Optimists, and the Realists

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 15:09:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')o predict resource wars when you are in one is not "inventing from scratch."


Predicting resource wars I agree with, as do many others. As you say, it's not hard to predict a resource war when you're in one!

The problem is a dismissal of "Powerdown" -- political and social action. In this, you are way out of line and your predictions can be harmful. Check out other people working in the field. They recognize the dangers of making fatalistic predictions in an uncertain field. It is of critical importance to outline a positive program for change. Heinberg and Darley are very careful to point a direction for people to go.


Dismissal of a powerdown? I am a strong advocate of powerdown, however, I see no move in that direction whatsoever.

I'm sorry, but that is reality.
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Re: The hopeless, the Optimists, and the Realists

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 15:12:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', 'P')ersonally, I'm sure he's a great guy. As I said, he's sincere and works hard. So, this isn't about personal criticism.


It isn't? Funny...sure sounds like that to me. You wish to critique my content, that's one thing...

So, you disagree with this quote from one of my earlier threads?

Peak Oil Solutions: Ideology versus Reality
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic6305.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, just who is winning this "battle for a solution"? Neither camp. For now, it is an intellectual battle of ideals while another battle rages and dominates. We are reverting back to the time-honored and time-tested takeover method of enhancing human carrying capacity, albeit a rather focused one on who gets enhanced. That is the reality of the current "solution" in progress.

From society's point of view, geopolitics is a Darwinian collective struggle for increased carrying capacity; but from the individual geostrategist's viewpoint, it is a game they are convinced they can win. And that, my friends, is the game that is afoot. For the moment, we can forget a techno-fix or a powerdown, what we get instead as an answer and solution to Peak Oil is a Resource War disguised as a War on Terror.
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Re: The hopeless, the Optimists, and the Realists

Unread postby bart » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 15:37:21

MQ, I base my remarks on reading many and many a post of yours.

I don't see many connections or citations in them to work that is being done elsewhere. I don't see published articles. I don't see interactions with the leading people in the field. I see mistakes which could be easily corrected with some feedback.

That's what I mean about getting out of the basement.

Peakoil.com is not going to give you the feedback you, or any intellectual worker, needs. You've repeatedly expressed frustration with people misunderstanding you. Well, right! That's because this is a lightly moderated board open to John Q. Public. You need rigorous but sympathetic criticism. Anybody trying to do what you're doing does.

Again, this is not a personal attack even though it may feel like one. If you look back at what I've written, I have listed many things that I admire and like in your work. There are specific things I'm critical of, and I've tried to explain exactly why.
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Re: The hopeless, the Optimists, and the Realists

Unread postby bart » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 15:57:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MQ', '.')..For the moment, we can forget a techno-fix or a powerdown, what we get instead as an answer and solution to Peak Oil is a Resource War disguised as a War on Terror.

Do I disagree with this?

This is actually a good example of the problem. You have outlined a general trend, but present it as an oracular vision, to be completely accepted or rejected.

First, this is not a unique analysis. You are only one of a community of people basically saying the same thing. It would lend credibility to your work, to cite them appropriately.

Second, since this type of analysis has been around for centuries. It would be a good idea to recognize this and build on what other people have done. Professionals will look at your work and determine your credibility by whether you are familiar with the literature in the field.

Third, in any analysis, one has to be able to look at the different parts and criticize those that are weak. We should be able to discuss this objectively.

In the quote you give, the weak point is the assumption that there is only one possibility: powerdown, technofix or war. The reality is that all these trends are ongoing. As David Holmgren says, all the predictions that people make about Peak Oil will come true, at different times, in different parts of the world.
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Re: The hopeless, the Optimists, and the Realists

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 16:05:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MQ', '.')..For the moment, we can forget a techno-fix or a powerdown, what we get instead as an answer and solution to Peak Oil is a Resource War disguised as a War on Terror.

Do I disagree with this?

This is actually a good example of the problem. You have outlined a general trend, but present it as an oracular vision, to be completely accepted or rejected.

First, this is not a unique analysis. You are only one of a community of people basically saying the same thing. It would lend credibility to your work, to cite them appropriately.

Second, since this type of analysis has been around for centuries. It would be a good idea to recognize this and build on what other people have done. Professionals will look at your work and determine your credibility by whether you are familiar with the literature in the field.

Third, in any analysis, one has to be able to look at the different parts and criticize those that are weak. We should be able to discuss this objectively.

In the quote you give, the weak point is the assumption that there is only one possibility: powerdown, technofix or war. The reality is that all these trends are ongoing. As David Holmgren says, all the predictions that people make about Peak Oil will come true, at different times, in different parts of the world.


"For the moment" is not an oracle vision, it is an observation of the facts open to debate in the forum.
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Re: The hopeless, the Optimists, and the Realists

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 16:24:00

Trespam's logic is flawed.

His worldview (and those who follow other absolutes) looks like this:

Everything would be fine except for the doomers, criminals, selfish people, communists, warmongers, etc. (Bad People)

Those Bad People are wrong in their logic, we are correct in ours.

If anyone follows the worldview of the Bad People, bad things will happen.

We must discredit the Bad People in order for our worldview to suceed.

Now the reality:

The world does have Bad People. In fact, because there are so many different ideological camps, everyone is a Bad Person to someone.

The Bad People will always outnumber the Good People, unless you pick a rather benign version of Good People. In which case you aren't really accomplishing anything.

The reason that this is the case is, of course, because there is NO universal way of thinking. Except for a few very basic rules, thou shalt not kill and Coke is the real thing. But again, very basic concepts don't allow for radical change.

In order for Trespam's world to work, the Bad People must not be allowed to interfere. But by the very nature of Trespam's ideology, the Bad People include a rather large portion of the people on this site and for that matter, most of humanity... :roll:

Good luck Trespam, that's all I can say, good luck. :lol:
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Re: The hopeless, the Optimists, and the Realists

Unread postby Sonny » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 16:56:29

Like others have said recently, I find Trespam's views refreshing. Its hard trying to stop yourself sliding down the slippery slope of doomerdom when according to many here humans are simply merciless, insane cannibals just bursting to break out the cutlery and start the main course (slight exaggeration :P ).

In order to get myself through the day I have to keep believing that at least some of us can act calmly and rationally in a crisis, rationally not meaning fleeing into the nearest forest with a loaded shotgun and 3 years worth of military rations.

You may be pleased to know that your speech redirected my morality compass a little more from the choppy waters of hopelessness. Or maybe not, doesn't matter, thanks anyway :-D !!

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