[backstop]

TS -

Good for you.

I'm logging off now but will be around tommorrow.

Regards,

Backstop

[peakoildiary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheStorm', 'L')ong time lurker, first time poster here.

Many people here, for example, seem to believe that the Iraq war is an oil war ( ). I also think its unrealistic to think that PO will have the same effects everywhere. Anyway, I look forward to debate and discussion with you all!

[peakoildiary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Show me some hard evidence.

[JoeW]

I don't think there is going to be a smoking gun anywhere that shows this war is about oil, but there are clues.
1) VP Cheney speech states something to the effect that regarding the future of oil exploration "the middle east is where the prize ultimately lies". The use of the word "prize" is telling to me. Prizes are won, as are wars...as are drilling contracts. It is ambiguous, and could go either way.
2) Protection of the oil production facilities was a primary military concern, and President Bush was quoted numerous times telling Iraqis not to sabotage their oil facilities when the US & coalition forces invaded.

There are more clues, but no hard evidence. It is like trying to figure out why the Fed does the things that they do, or trying to figure out what Greenspan means when he says different things. You look at all the facts and make an educated guess. Or you blindly trust the rhetoric of politicians trying to get elected.
I believe in making educated guesses, and it is pretty clear to me that oil is at least one piece of the puzzle regarding the Iraq conflict. I don't believe that Saddam Hussein posed any greater threat to the US than many other dictators. The removal of Hussein from power should have sent a strong message to other nations that it is unwise to openly defy the will of the US. However, some leaders seem not to have gotten the message...

[TheStorm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')raq war may or may not be about "Oil". We Canadian agree with Cindy Sheehan that American are killing, raping, and murdering Iraqis to please Israel. Her son was murder by American’s Government and so were Iraqi Children. Only a fool will believe anything else. We all know American have supported Israel in every Near East conflict. Other people can read Colin Campbell's interview from Global Public Media for more.

Personally, I don't really think that you are interested in "debate" if Israel is thrown in, you only wanted to give your opinion why Iraqis are being murder, raped, and killed by American, and Brits.

[Reality_Conference]

TS,

If you are waiting to see hard evidence of the government's motivation for ANYTHING, I would suggest that you will be waiting a long, long time. It's not always about evidence. Use your gut feeling, your common sense. Are you so steeped in the scientific way of thinking that you no longer have the ability to accept things without direct empirical evidence?

If that is so, you wouldn't be alone. We humans have entirely too much faith in our physical senses, convincing ourselves that if we can't see it, touch it, taste it, hear it, or smell it, then it doesn't exist. So not true, and it's to our collective detriment that we do this.

I don't claim to know what the motivation was for getting involved in Iraq. I think there were probably a number of reasons. If one of the main reasons we were told by our government was complete BS (those pesky unfounded WMD) then is there any reason why I shouldn't speculate as to the real motives? And this comes from the very same government that tells me a sub-standard Marine who was a poor shot was on the 6th floor of the TSBD and with world class shooting managed to take out Kennedy.

Might I be suspicious? Oh, I might.

[swingbolder]

Thank you all for the welcomes, and the book recommendations too.

Alpha and okek: Do you all know other people in our area who are aware of PO and making plans (or at least thinking about it)? I'm in the Hudson Valley, which I think will be an okay place to be, if you can survive the winters. We're right on the river and the trainline, with a lot of farms nearby.

[Simon_in_Samui]

Hi, just introducing myself as a new member. I'm a British guy, 46 years old. I worked for 20 years in the space & satellite business. But I now live in Thailand, on the beautiful island of Samui.

I've always been very interested in self-sufficiency, as well as the impending oil crisis. Now that I live in Thailand I hope to be in a position to achieve my self-sufficiency goals.

Together with my Thai wife, we have just bought 3 rai (about 2.5 acres of land in Samui, about 100 metres from a beautiful beach. We are going to build a small holiday bungalow resort for disabled (and able-bodied) tourists. So there will be wide doors, no steps etc! As part of our project we are going to try to make the resort as self-sufficient as possible. Samui is a sunny place, so solar heating should be easy. Solar electricity can also be achieved, although I'm aware that the PV panels are not cheap. We get our water from a deep well, but we can also install a salt water desalination plant.

Overall, I think we are in a relatively safe location. Samui is not in an earthquake zone. There are very low chances of tropical storms. There are no nuclear plants anywhere nearby! Although Samui is a popular tourist island, the chances of a terroist bomb are small (because it is an island and there are easier targets such as Bangkok or Phuket).

Oh, I'm also a radio amateur, so I will get my shortwave rig up and running when we finish the building work!

Simon

[Barbara]

Welcome Simon. Samui is a wonderful place to be . Were you hit by the tsunami?

[Macsporan]

You've caught us at an awkward time: everyone is preoccupied with Katrina and the Wave.

Welcome.

Hope you enjoy the information available here and are entertained by the debating and ranting.

Your insights will be greatly valued.

Mac.

[Simon_in_Samui]

Samui is on the eastern side of Thailand, so we had no problems with the tsunami

Simon

[hanrahan]

I'm thinking of retiring shortly and Tailand is on my "must do" list.

Who knows, might meet you. (I'm an Aussie BTW)

[midnight-gamer]

Hello

My wife is also Thai. I have been to Thailand twice myself. Great to find a peak oiler from there.
Are you not worried about muslim extremist from the southern part of Thailand? All in all it's not a bad place to be. I'm considering living there myself.

[knightrd]

Hi, I'm Matt. I've been following peak oil news, as well as theories, for quite a while now. I have background in the oil industry on the IT side of things, but I've learned more since I've left than I knew as an "insider".

[RonMN]

Welcome Matt

Sorry, i couldn't resist

Welcome to PO...what do you mean you have more insites now than when you were an "insider"?

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', '.')..what do you mean you have more insites now than when you were an "insider"?

[RonMN]

goodly spellling is overraighted

[IslandCrow]

This is my first post. Having been a 'young man' at the time of the last major oil shock, I am aware of the problems of oil depletion (and the predictions of when it actually will happen). I have been interested in the idea of PO for some time, but only really got a sense of urgency when looking at graphs that ESSO published in a their annual report last year - the graphes showed clearly that extraction was running way ahead of discovery, meaning that trouble is on the way. However, I've not made up my mind when it is likely that TSHTF.

I tend to side more with some of the pessimistic opinions, not because oil will run out, but because I am not sure how well society will hold up - and when society fails then there tends to be waves of destruction [for example in the Russian revolution when the farms of the richer landowners were destroyed because they had belonged to the rich, making the famine all the worse].

I live in a block of flats, which is hooked upto a city wide heating system, and see that this will not be very viable as the effect of higher energy prices starts to bite into the general life style here. I am in the process of buying a place in the country, and plan to work from there (I have being doing distance work for 11 years - so the job will not be too much of a problem). I will be looking to the forums to get ideas of what I can do with the place, but at this stage cash is rather limited so I will not be rushing into too many things unless I have too (like the 32 year old oil boiler breaking down - I am looking at heat exchange,but with my bank balance I am praying that the boiler will last a bit longer. BTW the house has a wood burning sauna, water heater (not hooked to the plumbing) and a brick fire place so if the oil boiler does go we would survive

[Barbara]

Welcome!
Plenty of scandinavians here...

[julianj]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')TW the house has a wood burning sauna