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THE Oil & NGas Infrastructure Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby marko » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 10:19:17

Seb, is your first language Japanese? If so, you must be congratulated for a perfect translation from French into English! Very impressive.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seb', 'O')n the positive side, I only see the end of the driving season BUT refineries will have to switch to produce heating oil quite soon.

The driving season accounts for only a relatively small change in consumption. The overwhelming majority of US gasoline consumption is for commuting to work, transporting goods by truck, and household errands. None of that demand goes away at the end of the summer.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'O')k this is even worse to consider IMHO. EVERYONE who works at these refineries and facilities likely lives close to the damage. The infrastructure for basic things like power, water, food don't exist. Its not just the actual equipment damage that is going to cause problems. This could well be an even larger problem. It is going to take weeks and months just to begin to restore these basic services. To start repairing facilities probably won't happen for quite some time.

This, in my opinion, is an excellent point. There is at present nowhere to live for the personnel who would have to repair the region's entire infrastructure, including roads and power supply. Before the regional infrastructure is repaired, it will be impossible to repair and bring most of the oil, shipping, and refinining infrastructure back online.
I have done some calculations based on gasoline stocks as of last week, recent US gasoline consumption data, and the capacity for refining and importing gasoline.
Assuming a 10% loss of refining capacity, and assuming that ALL of the US gasoline imports can be redirected to ports outside of the damage area, US gasoline stocks will be severely depleted (less than enough to provide for one week of consumption) by December.
And it is looking more and more like it could take that long to bring the infrastructure back online.
This means that we will see physical shortages of gasoline unless prices rise high enough to force a substantial drop in gasoline consumption.
Gasoline prices high enough to ration consumption for more than two months will almost certainly send the economy into recession, even as measured by government statistics that distort economic growth positively.
IMHO, this will not be a normal recession but the beginning of a probable global depression because of the very fragile and unbalanced state of global financial flows.
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby Leanan » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 10:20:15

I think it will be a long time before we have info about underwater damage. They need to be able to get equipment and divers on site. And before the divers will be allowed the water, they will have to check for hazards, clear debris, etc.
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby LadyRuby » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 10:46:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'O')cean Warwick aground:
Image


That's amazing. Here's what it once looked like:

Warwick
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby strider3700 » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 10:49:23

someone from loop was just on CNBC. They say there is no major damage, they have people on site and once they get their generators going again they expect to move some oil through the pipeline today.

So it's looking like oil will be coming in still. What we can do with it is still the question
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: White House to release petroleum reserves

Postby falser » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 11:05:27

I'm very surprised they're bothering with it. Everyone knows this won't help in the short or long term, it's purely a political gesture.
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby khebab » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 11:05:39

Reuters$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')n oil refinery is submerged in water in Codin, Alabama, August 30, 2005.
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby EnemyCombatant » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 11:10:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', 's')omeone from loop was just on CNBC. They say there is no major damage, they have people on site and once they get their generators going again they expect to move some oil through the pipeline today.
So it's looking like oil will be coming in still. What we can do with it is still the question

Yeah, right! [smilie=bduh.gif]
Now why didn't I take the blue pill.
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby khebab » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 11:12:59

Image
Image
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby DigitalCubano » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 11:21:01

Actually I read a blurb on cnn.com yesterday that the LOOP weathered the storm just fine and is in operational condition (it was buried in one of their oil & gasoline price stories). I'll try to find the story and post the link.
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby LadyRuby » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 13:00:30

Check out this on oil drum: Oil Drum
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are MANY production platform missing (as in not visible from the air). This means they have been totally lost. I am talking about 10's of platforms, not single digit numbers. Each platform can have from 4 to 100+ wells on it. Most larger ones have 20-30 wells in this area, with numerous caisson wells. They are on their sides, on the bottom of the gulf - they will likely be left as reef material, provided we can get permission. MMS regulations require us to plug each of the wells that were on these platforms - HUGE cost now, as the platforms are gone... Hopefully, MMS will grant `abandon in place' status for these wiped out structures.

Of course wild rumours at this point, but sounds horrible.
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby khebab » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 13:02:17

from the rigzone:

Image
( Shell's Mars TLP )
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby Leanan » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 13:25:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')ttp://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/8/31/83553/8973#more

Holy crap. That is really scary. And I think it's more than wild rumors, because this person's info has been accurate before. She seems to actually be an oil industry insider.
I think we're on the verge a sea change in our lifestyle. One that most Americans never imagined. Even though I was sort of expecting peak oil in the fall of 2005, I am not ready for this.
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby frankthetank » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 13:33:17

I'll add this..thought it was interesting..from my local paper..
LINK
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'g')ranted, it wasn't your average boat.
Obgartel works for a company that transports workers and equipment to oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. He is a 1965 graduate of Holmen High School who lives with his wife and grown children in Houma, La., and is a crew member of a jack-up boat, a massive structure with three steel legs that can lift the boat out of 170 feet of water. His particular rig is 194 feet long and 90 feet across, weighs a couple thousand tons and can hold 13 semitrailers on its deck like Hot Wheels.
He and the five other crew members returned from a job Friday with Katrina following across the gulf. They jacked the boat out of the water at a coastal town called Venice, 80 miles southeast of New Orleans at the tip of Louisiana. Two of the men left. Four stayed to ride out the hurricane on the boat, designed to withstand 150 mph winds.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince they moved to Houma in 1983, Obgartel said he had ridden out six hurricanes, five in the jack-up boat and one, Hurricane Andrew, at home with his family in 1992.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')e and the remaining crew rode it out in the wheelhouse, lying down and watching the massive storm pass from water to land though a window as the jack-up boat shook like an oversized "Tinkertoy."
"They gave us a choice (to leave or stay)," he said. "I knew my family had gone to Texas. I thought, ‘I'm good here, because I rode out the others.'"
Was it the right choice?
"No sir. There's an old saying, live and learn. I don't want to learn anymore.
"It was a sight to behold," he said. "It made me doubt my sanity."

And the part i found most interesting
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey were planning to head back to work in the gulf sometime Tuesday night.
"There's a lot of repairs out there to be made," he said.
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby backstop » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 13:43:00

Does anyone know what scale of refined fuels could be imported daily at other docks around the US, beside the LOOP ?
Would rather go against the grain of the "Energy Independence" piffle, but who'd give a damn.
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby gego » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 13:56:06

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

Interesting description of the damage and of the crisis that is resulting from Katrina superimposed upon the current oil situation.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Currently, about 95% of all Gulf of Mexico O&G production is shut-in and much of it will not be recoverable in the near-term. Though inventory of offshore and onshore damage in the wake of Hurricane Katrina is just begun, it is clear that the oil and gas industry in the Gulf of Mexico has suffered a severe blow.
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby Teclo » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 14:09:59

Has anyone seen this: Oil Drum
Says that dozens of rigs are missing... production will take years not months to recover
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby Jaymax » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 14:33:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('khebab', 'f')rom the rigzone:

photo (Shell's Mars TLP )

Before the pics became public:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')oyal Dutch Shell said an aerial inspection of its Mars platform in the gulf indicated some damage to its upper deck

Factually correct, but 90% spin.
If you assume the same level of spin for all the other news and missing news (ie: that 'some damage to upper deck' somehow gives an idea how long it's gonna take to fix MARS - or that Shell still don't know if we're talking days, weeks or months to fix THAT) then things might be considerably worse than even I was dreading.
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby Leanan » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 14:56:37

From AP:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Oil refineries still shut down
(AP) - Eight Gulf of Mexico refineries remain shut and one is operating at a reduced rate while damage from Hurricane Katrina continues to be assessed by oil and gas companies.
Access to some of the refineries is difficult. Conditions at those locations are as follows:
_ Baton Rouge, La. - At nearly 394,000 barrels a day, one of the gulf's largest refinery owned by Exxon Mobil Corp. is running at a reduced capacity.
_ Pascagoula, Miss. - Chevron Corp.'s 325,000 barrel a day refinery remains shut. The company says access to the refinery remains difficult.
_ Norco, La. - Valero Energy Corp.'s St. Charles refinery is not likely to resume its 260,000 barrel a day operations for up to two weeks.
_ Garyville, La. - Marathon Oil Corp.'s 245,000 barrel a day refinery remains shut. Access is limited.
_ Belle Chasse, La. - ConocoPhillips' Alliance refinery remains shut while the company continues to assess damage to the 255,000 barrel a day facility.
_ Convent, La. -- Motiva Enterprises's 255,000 barrel a day facility sustained minimal damage.
_ Norco, La. - Access to Motiva Enterprises's 242,000 barrel a day refinery is limited, so damage still is being assessed.
_ Chalmette, La. - Exxon Mobil has not been able to visit the 183,000 barrel a day refinery, which shut down on Sunday.
_ Meraux, La. - The 125,000 barrel a day facility by Murphy Oil Corp. remains shut down as access remains limited.
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Re: Katrina - Oil Infrastructure

Postby Jaymax » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 15:06:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Marathon Ashland Petroleum refinery in Catlettsburg has scaled back operations until the pipeline from the Louisiana coast goes back into operation, said Angelia Graves, spokeswoman for the company.
"We have a decrease in our supply of crude oil," Graves said Wednesday morning. "The refinery is continuing to run and continuing to produce products at this time."

Link
This is in Kentucky.
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Katrina equals lower (or at least not higher) oil prices?

Postby clv101 » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 15:15:47

US wholesale gasoline prices in the US have risen 50% and natural gas has risen over 25% over the last two days. Yet crude oil hasn't moved much.
Most of Gulf extraction is offline ~25% US production (~1.5mbpd) and 12% of US import (~1.4mbpd). Can this ~1.4mbpd be redirected to other US ports? It seems to me that US imports of oil might fall, effectively making more oil available to the rest of the world. Presumably there are super tankers on route to the LOOP at the moment which may not be able to be received. They'll have to turn around and head somewhere else.
Over the next month or so US oil imports could be ~1.4mbpd down, that's a lot of extra oil available. Bad news for the US but could be a bit of a breather for the international oil market.
(Mods feel free to add this to an existing thread if not deemed significant enough to stand alone.)
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