[tsakach]

Hurricane Ivan caused significant damage to underwater oil and gas pipelines due to rigs breaking free of their moorings and ships dragging anchors across pipelines.

With all these rigs floating around in the gulf, there is no telling at this point how much damage to underwater pipelines has occured.

[OilsNotWell]

Here is the MARS platform 'before' picture:

[seb]

Based on this week in petroleum report.
Last week gasoline stocks come down 3.2mbto 194.9mb. The US gasoline production is 8.6mbad whose 3.5mbad come from the Gulf Coast.
For now it is hard to say how much has been lost, but clearly a loss of 1mbad or more is expected in the Gulf Coast for the mid-term. I mean for weeks. In this realistic non doomer scenario, we can expect a drop of 10mb of gasoline stocks in a week.
Of course the driving season is almost over, but I really see the stock sgoing down in the 170-180mb range.

This will be well below the average range and will be a super bullish picture for gasoline price.

Today report will not show it because it will present statitiscs for the week before Katrina had any impact. A figure like 191-192mb stocks would look normal. Next week will show a big drop I guess.

Any comment?

[strider3700]

A 10 million barrel drop seems perfectly reasonable next week. The issue is there currently appears to no way that most of these units will be repaired and fully functional within the next few weeks. A month of this and we're in the 150 million barrel range thats damn low and will be crippling to the economy unless prices are locked at some point. If the government sets prices then shortages are almost certain. Things could be really really serious soon. One more event and it could break the camels back.

[backstop]

As I understand it there are a series of choke points to be cleared before delivery into the main land pipelines northward can begin to develop full normal flow.
Of these, the refineries were already in dangerously short supply. Those north of Fuchon may be ok, but of those to the east, Pascagoula had a 25ft surge come over it followed by chaotic breaking 20ft waves. How much is left seems rather secret at present.
While it may be reparable, if it has actually been wiped out, like the Rig Repair base at Venice, then how long does it take to build it's replacement ? Years, surely ?
Does anyone know what thruput is lost while it's being mended or rebuilt ?
Regards, Backstop

[seb]

On the gasoline supply side we have to evaluate 3 things :
- the loss in refinery capacity
- the loss of already built stocks
- the loss of imported refined products

On the positive side, I only see the end of the driving season BUT refineries will have to switch to produce heating oil quite soon.

I still don't know where we are going to, but it looks pretty bad at least for gasoline.

[clv101]

Can anyone explain why natural gas has increased in price 20-30% since Katrina?

[Grimnir]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', 'C')an anyone explain why natural gas has increased in price 20-30% since Katrina?

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', 'C')an anyone explain why natural gas has increased in price 20-30% since Katrina?

[AirlinePilot]

I have not found any news yet on the LOOP or underwater infrastructure. I am guessing it may be at least a few weeks until they learn the real extent of the damage. I sense some really bad undertones in the lack of info and speculation going on right now. With all the rigs that were floating around how does that affect underwater piping? Do those things have anchors/moorings to drag around if they break free?

NO is in very bad shape and until the city can get its act together everything else around it is going to be affected by it's problems. I believe electric power is going to be a real hurdle right now. Almost total destruction of the grid down there apparently.

[Macsporan]

No amount of life saved due to careful planning and selfless heroism on the part of the rescue services can possibly compensate us for the loss of these beautiful oil refineries.

[DantesPeak]

Ocean Warwick aground:

[seb]

From Boursorama (French online news site)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')a gigantesque plateforme Mars de Royal Dutch Shell est la dernière "victime" de Katrina et potentiellement la plus grosse si l'on en juge aux photos qui montrent son sommet sérieusement endommagé. Celle-ci pompe quotidiennement en temps normal 220.000 baril de brut sans compter le gaz.

[Bubbling_Crude]

WASHINGTON - Energy Secretary Samuel W. Bodman said Wednesday the Bush administration has decided to release oil from federal petroleum reserves to help refiners affected by Hurricane Katrina.
The move, which was expected later in the day, is designed to give refineries a temporary supply of crude oil to take the place of interrupted shipments from tankers or offshore oil platforms affected by the storm.

[seb]

This makes sense : crude oil can not come from the sea in the GOM, so it comes from the strategic reserves from the ground. This can help refineries to have something to refine.

[khebab]

What's the quality of the crude in the SPR? I doubt it's light sweet crude!

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his can help refineries to have something to refine.

[AirlinePilot]

I'm not so sure this is necessary right now. It s PR game they are playing. With 9% of the refinery capacity down at the moment it just doesn't matter. What we have is a major disruption to both supply, and refining capability. You don't solve the refining prolem until you get EVERYTHING back on line. All the crude on the planet won't solve that problem.

I submit that the Infrastructure around new Orleans, including the people which work at these refineries will be the real issue. No telling how bad the impacts of NO POWER, and NO BODIES to man your refineries will be.

I would bet its more than 9% of capacity we lose for at least another month, maybe longer due to those two issues alone.

[retiredguy]

I concur. Releasing oil from the SPR is purely a political move and its effects will be very temporary, if felt at all.

Better to leave the oil in place and give the American public a taste of what things will be like in the near future.

[linlithgowoil]

you would think they would have a refined products reserve as well though? there isnt a whole lot of point in having tons of crude if you cant refine it is there.

anyone know if they also have been buying up gasoline, heating oil, diesel fuels etc and storing them in tanks?