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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Nothing to fear but fear itself

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby Ludi » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 21:31:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'B')y the way, Ludi. As soon as you take me away, you place the experiment in a controlled situation, which we can't say the supposeable die-off is the equivilant to a scientific experiment in a controlled area. Doesn't work.


I'm sorry, but I can't make any sense of what you're saying there. The fact is, you aren't here when I drop a heavy object. It's not a "controlled experiment"- it is a demonstration of gravity, which you apparently don't believe in! Gravity exists for me whether you are here or not!

Sorry, but as far as I can tell, you're just talking nonsense.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 21:33:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'S')o are you trying to tell me that there just isn't enough sun for us to get the energy we need. And I have a hard time believing that solar is .001% of the energy accessible to man if you're comparing it to oil. According to this article, it can supply energy for the whole United States in an area that's equal to 9% of Nevada. Please explain.


No, the received solar flux is immense, but it is diffused, and is a flow, not a stock. It is intermittent.

Solar vs Fossil; The Future and the Past
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic2059.html+past

Solar is 1000th of 1% of the energy currently accessible to man. In other words, of all the energy produced currently by man, solar technologies account for only 1000th of 1% of it.

The scalability required is immense!
Last edited by MonteQuest on Tue 30 Aug 2005, 21:40:35, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby backstop » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 21:35:04

JudoCow -

just so you'll maybe cease showing off your scientific illiteracy,

I'd point out that the article you're quoting has been very badly hyped, for whatever reason, and you appear to have fallen for it.

It says "100 square miles" when it should say "100 miles square", which is of course 10,000 square miles. Bit of a difference, just X 100 . . .

It is 10,000 square miles that is roughly 9% of Nevada, whose area is 109,865 square miles.

regards,

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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby JudoCow09 » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 21:38:59

You apparently don't seem to get what I'm saying. You are taking away a variable, or something that effects the expirement. Eliminating variables does not work once something outside the controlled enviroment is used. It's like saying you were to drop this object in the middle of the desert. You're picking conditions that favor the success of the experiment. You could say the object will fall, but you can't say it will hit the ground.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 21:44:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'Y')ou apparently don't seem to get what I'm saying. You are taking away a variable, or something that effects the expirement. Eliminating variables does not work once something outside the controlled enviroment is used. It's like saying you were to drop this object in the middle of the desert. You're picking conditions that favor the success of the experiment. You could say the object will fall, but you can't say it will hit the ground.


But is the law of gravity that predicts the fall sound? Of course.

And that is the question.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby Ludi » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 21:46:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'Y')ou apparently don't seem to get what I'm saying. You are taking away a variable, or something that effects the expirement. Eliminating variables does not work once something outside the controlled enviroment is used. It's like saying you were to drop this object in the middle of the desert. You're picking conditions that favor the success of the experiment. You could say the object will fall, but you can't say it will hit the ground.


What you are saying makes NO sense!

It is NOT "speculating" to predict that when a heavy object is dropped it will hit the ground. You suddenly showing up in my room to catch said object is so far outside of the realm of possibility as to be virtually impossible! Therefore, it is so extremely likely that the object will hit the floor that it is to all reasonable expectation a CERTAIN OUTCOME!

Argh!
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby JudoCow09 » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 21:56:36

That doesn't change the fact that something can interfere with the fall.

Let's say a relative was over, or a cat walked under it. Not me, but anything. The same idea applies to Liebig's Law. Something can interfere. Liebig's Law applies to all species, yet did we ever consider a major variable that no other species has called imagination?

Anyway, so you're saying that .001% of all energy we produce is solar? And have you ever considered advancements in solar technology? There not here now apparently, but there's a few years to go, and some isn't half bad now like the Stirling Engine Technology.

Did you know 25% of the U.S. is powered by electricity from nuclear and hydro? So what's stopping us from building 4 times as many hydro and nuclear plants to answer our energy needs? Technology advances, and the world moves right on beside it.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby Z » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 22:09:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')hat you are saying makes NO sense!

Argh!


I predict this thread will end up in the Hall of Flame. I call this 'the law of contrarian views'. It's when an optimist and a pessimist try to convince each other of the rightness of their views ... :roll:
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby Ludi » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 22:09:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'T')hat doesn't change the fact that something can interfere with the fall.


There is no likelihood[ that something will interfere with the fall!

Therefore it is NOT "speculation" to predict the object will hit the floor, and if you think it is, I seriously question your ability to think rationally.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby Ludi » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 22:12:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Z', '
')
I predict this thread will end up in the Hall of Flame. I call this 'the law of contrarian views'. It's when an optimist and a pessimist try to convince each other of the rightness of their views ... :roll:


You're probably right - and I'm not even really much of a pessimist!

I just try mightily hard to make sense of things...

But gettin' mighty close to flamin' here....

Best be leavin'.....
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby JudoCow09 » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 22:17:31

*sigh*

Listen. There is a chance that object will not hit the floor. The chance could be great, or it could be minimal. What if you dropped an object of a building onto a busy street? Would it still hit the ground? YOU dropping an object in YOUR room is one example. In my sister's room, it would never reach the actual floor because there is so much garbage covering the floor. What if the object was tied to helium balloons? All different situations, all with different results.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby sameu » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 22:23:38

people please :-D

the concept is realy not so hard to grasp

no one can predict the future with 100% certainty, and especially not something like the status of the entire planet
we people can't even tell when peak oil will happen (not by year let alone the exact month and day)
and trust me there are a lot of 'laws' who hmmm, suddenly didn't quite coresponded with the things that happened
A few hundred years ago, everybody knew that the earth was flat. If you could google back then, every website would have told you the same. The earth being flat wasn't a speculation, it was a fact.
Don't forget, the physical laws are based on induction, water cooks at 100°celsius @1atm, we checked it, billion times, so we can say it cooks @ 100°, but nothing assures me that tomorow it will still cook at 100°
I'd bet all my money on it, but I wouldn't risk my life for it.

Monte and everybody else who is so sure: isn't there any slight remote possibility that you overlooked something, or that there will take events place who you simply couldn't foresee, and that you would have to say, well be darned, who on earth could of guessed that? Maybe you have every possible variable checked and rechecked, but isn't it possible that there is something you simply can't factor in? That you'll have to say, yes but that was impossible for me to know at that time...

Je pense donc je suis...
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 22:30:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'T')hat doesn't change the fact that something can interfere with the fall.

Let's say a relative was over, or a cat walked under it. Not me, but anything. The same idea applies to Liebig's Law. Something can interfere. Liebig's Law applies to all species, yet did we ever consider a major variable that no other species has called imagination?


Interfere? Judo, out of the things we can all agree on that are necessities for human suvivial, which one is subject to change: air, water, food, shelter, or energy? Might we evolve to the point we don't need any one of them? Not in our lifetime, if ever.

You can imagine yourself all day not eating, drinking, breathing, or seeking shelter from a CAT 5 hurricane, but it won't change a thing. If you don't, you will die.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyway, so you're saying that .001% of all energy we produce is solar? And have you ever considered advancements in solar technology?


Advance away. It is not about the technology, it is about the scalability.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')id you know 25% of the U.S. is powered by electricity from nuclear and hydro? So what's stopping us from building 4 times as many hydro and nuclear plants to answer our energy needs? Technology advances, and the world moves right on beside it.


Electricity does not address our liquid fuels problem. What prevents us from building 4X more nuke and hydro plants?

Geology with regard to hydro. Few, if any places left. Long construction times. Unsustainable, as it turns into a waterfall in time.

Nuclear? Long construction time. Capital costs. Current technology unproven for investors, siting regulations, waste storage issues are still unresolved, security costs,...I could go on forever. But time is the biggest issue.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 22:38:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', 'M')onte and everybody else who is so sure: isn't there any slight remote possibility that you overlooked something, or that there will take events place who you simply couldn't foresee, and that you would have to say, well be darned, who on earth could of guessed that? Maybe you have every possible variable checked and rechecked, but isn't it possible that there is something you simply can't factor in? That you'll have to say, yes but that was impossible for me to know at that time...



Is there a chance that a human can live without air, food, water, and shelter from the elements in the world as we know it?

No, no chance whatsoever.

Do these things limit us? Yes.

If one if in less abundance than the others, will that be the limiting factor?

Yes. That is Liebig's Law.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 22:44:49

You guys wish to question the biology behind the die-off predictions, then focus on that which predicts it! Overshoot, not Liebig's Law, as it merely predicts what the die-off will turn on....the root cause. The limiting factor. The trigger.

Why is this so hard to grasp? This is high school biology, for christ sakes!
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby JudoCow09 » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 22:57:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou can imagine yourself all day not eating, drinking, breathing, or seeking shelter from a CAT 5 hurricane, but it won't change a thing. If you don't, you will die.


You can sit here all day Monte and also imagine how much P.O. will effect us and continue to do so until it happens.

Of course, the rest of the world who wants to stop P.O. from crashing society are imagining ways to deal with the problem.

We call what you're doing stereotyping. You infer every living species reacts the same way to the same problems. You infer when we burn out most of our resources that we will just die off until we can feed everyone. Have you ever thought of a great way to replace all that energy that goes into making our food? What if all the energy wasted by couch potatoes was suddenly put into action to harvest food. What if everyone lived in tight communities around farms and fed their own societies? Is it impossible to believe we could support a population greater than 1 billion like 3 billion if everyone put wasted energy to work?

Back on topic, I have to agree that you can't 100% predict the future. Like sameu said, many years ago everyone knew the world was flat. It was a fact. Have you ever applied that here? Do you know how much knowledge we gain as a world over time? All of the world's knowledge doubles in an average of eight years at a time. Think about that.

Here's a really interesting quote for you.

"An educated person is one who has learned that information almost always turns out to be at best incomplete and very often false, misleading, fictitious, mendacious - just dead wrong."
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby JudoCow09 » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 23:03:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy is this so hard to grasp? This is high school biology, for christ sakes!


Trust me. We're saying the same thing.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 23:15:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy is this so hard to grasp? This is high school biology, for christ sakes!


Trust me. We're saying the same thing.


I'm done here. I've "boiled the ocean" long enough. :roll:
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby JudoCow09 » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 23:59:23

A stalemate. Until we meet again.
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Re: The Only Thing We Have to Fear...

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 31 Aug 2005, 01:11:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JudoCow09', 'A') stalemate. Until we meet again.


Hardly, my son. You have much to learn and experience. If you don't get it by now, anything I say will fall on deaf ears.
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