We're going to substitute natuarl gas for gasoline/diesel in the near future, I think. With that change, we'll probably be able to retrofit cars and trucks to burn natural gas without too much trouble. That should extend our current economy another 20-30 years!
Collapse is inevitable eventually, but it might not be anywhere near as bad as we think. LNG is coming, and will be here for quite a while. We'll be building electric cars and trucks soon, and that will carry us forward as well. More nuclear plants, cleaner coal, and a little demand destruction will serve us well.
I don't think it'll be the catastrophe I was convinced it was. We'll have cars that get 250+ MPG within the next ten years, thanks to VW. They put out a demo two-seater a little while ago that got 256MPG. Even with gas at $20/gal, that wouldn't make all that much of a difference to my budget, since I'd be getting 8x the utility out of a gallon that I get now. Couple that with bicycle trips for local things, an improved public transportation system, and conservation efforts based on higher prices, and we've extended the economic crash out another 20+ years!
I don't think we'll be seeing the end of life as we know it any time soon. True, we'll have to keep this issue percolating, but it really might not make a huge impact on our lives in the short term.
PeakOil is You
THE Peak Oil & Economics Thread (merged)
THE Peak Oil & Economics Thread (merged)
by Ayoob » Thu 09 Sep 2004, 12:23:04
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Re: Peak Oil won't change our economic situation much for a
by MonteQuest » Thu 09 Sep 2004, 13:13:03
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob', '
')I don't think we'll be seeing the end of life as we know it any time soon. True, we'll have to keep this issue percolating, but it really might not make a huge impact on our lives in the short term.
')I don't think we'll be seeing the end of life as we know it any time soon. True, we'll have to keep this issue percolating, but it really might not make a huge impact on our lives in the short term.
The USA's real economic condition is about as bad as it could be; like I said earlier—it is the most debt-ridden nation on earth, owing about $25,000 U.S. for every single one of it's 290 million men, women and children. It is worse than the position of Indonesia when it imploded economically a few years ago, or more recently, that of Argentina.
Even without the advent of peak oil, we cannot sustain this level of debt. Have you read my Peak Oil Perfect Storm? There is a lot more at play here than you suggest.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by Falconoffury » Thu 09 Sep 2004, 13:44:19
A lot of people don't even own a total of $25,000 in assets and money. Homeless people basically own nothing.
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
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by MonteQuest » Thu 09 Sep 2004, 13:46:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'A') lot of people don't even own a total of $25,000 in assets and money. Homeless people basically own nothing.
I miss your point. Could you clarify, please?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by Falconoffury » Thu 09 Sep 2004, 13:58:37
What you said is that the debt is $25,000 for everyone. That includes people who have lived in poverty their whole lives, and couldn't hope to ever pay that much money.
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
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by MonteQuest » Thu 09 Sep 2004, 14:03:29
That figure is what the per capita national debt is today, not including private debt.
Our national debt is $7.3 trillion dollars or $25,000 per capita, with a projected deficit for this year alone of $521 billion—which exceeds the entire national debt at the end of 1972 which was $449 billion—every cent of it borrowed at interest from somewhere. Check the figures for yourself here: http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov
And I still miss your point.
Our national debt is $7.3 trillion dollars or $25,000 per capita, with a projected deficit for this year alone of $521 billion—which exceeds the entire national debt at the end of 1972 which was $449 billion—every cent of it borrowed at interest from somewhere. Check the figures for yourself here: http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov
And I still miss your point.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by Falconoffury » Thu 09 Sep 2004, 14:09:03
I don't understand how national debt can possibly be measured by person. I don't understand how people who haven't made $25,000 in their lives be considered in debt of that much money. What does the "per capita" measurement really mean? You can't slap a debt on someone who has no control over it.
"If humans don't control their numbers, nature will." -Pimentel
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
"There is not enough trash to go around for everyone," said Banrel, one of the participants in the cattle massacre.
"Bush, Bush, listen well: Two shoes on your head," the protesters chant
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Falconoffury - Expert
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by MonteQuest » Thu 09 Sep 2004, 14:18:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Falconoffury', 'I') don't understand how national debt can possibly be measured by person. I don't understand how people who haven't made $25,000 in their lives be considered in debt of that much money. What does the "per capita" measurement really mean? You can't slap a debt on someone who has no control over it.
The national debt is the money our government has borrowed to finance the business of our country and to pay its bills. What we don't collect in taxes, we must borrow. Per capita debt is how much that borrowed money represents when divided amongst the people on the receiving end, Social Security, infrastructure, Medicare, etc. It is not an amount that individuals owe per se that they must pay back, but a debt that the country owes to those from which we borrowed. In our case, we owe it mostly to Japan and China at the tune of about 3.7 trillion.
When a country finds itself at this level of debt, is becomes unsustainable.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by trespam » Thu 09 Sep 2004, 14:38:03
And the $7.3 trillion doesn't even include the Social Security and Medicare imbalance. I think the article I posted here the other day brings the effective debt to $37 trillion dollars.
From:
http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bi ... cle/id=278
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')eyond the $3.7 trillion deficit in 2003, however, the numbers get even worse, because the shadow deficit has been taking its toll ever since the Johnson era. According to the Treasury's 2003 financial statement, the U.S. government has a negative net worth of $34.8 trillion. That $34.8 trillion reflects $36.2 trillion in financial liabilities offset by $1.4 trillion in assets, of which only $0.4 trillion are liquid.
Part of the underlying reality-the actual operating cash shortfall-is reflected in the growth of the federal debt. During fiscal 2003, for example, gross federal debt increased from $6.2 trillion to $6.8 trillion, or by $600 billion, against the unified $374 billion deficit. As of the end of August 2004, the debt had increased to $7.3 trillion.
While gross federal debt is at a record, relentlessly pushing against borrowing ceilings, the markets, press and politicians generally ignore that portion of the debt borrowed from Social Security and similar programs. So, the September 30, 2003 debt level commonly is reported as only the $3.9 trillion owed to the public, instead of the total $6.8 billion. Again, the more accurate GAAP estimate of total government liabilities is $36.2 trillion.
From:
http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bi ... cle/id=278
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')eyond the $3.7 trillion deficit in 2003, however, the numbers get even worse, because the shadow deficit has been taking its toll ever since the Johnson era. According to the Treasury's 2003 financial statement, the U.S. government has a negative net worth of $34.8 trillion. That $34.8 trillion reflects $36.2 trillion in financial liabilities offset by $1.4 trillion in assets, of which only $0.4 trillion are liquid.
Part of the underlying reality-the actual operating cash shortfall-is reflected in the growth of the federal debt. During fiscal 2003, for example, gross federal debt increased from $6.2 trillion to $6.8 trillion, or by $600 billion, against the unified $374 billion deficit. As of the end of August 2004, the debt had increased to $7.3 trillion.
While gross federal debt is at a record, relentlessly pushing against borrowing ceilings, the markets, press and politicians generally ignore that portion of the debt borrowed from Social Security and similar programs. So, the September 30, 2003 debt level commonly is reported as only the $3.9 trillion owed to the public, instead of the total $6.8 billion. Again, the more accurate GAAP estimate of total government liabilities is $36.2 trillion.
So everyone is really in debt by about $250,000. Take that to the bank. Good news though: the government can print money to pay everything off. That'll solve the problem. Just ask post WWI germans.
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