Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

PO MAY BE OUR SALVATION

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: PO MAY BE OUR SALVATION

Unread postby aldente » Sun 21 Aug 2005, 03:48:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Macsporan', ' ') the 3000 mile Salad or cannibalism, everything or nothing
Wait a second, the Kunstler salad is the current state of trade while cannibalism is a worp in your mind. Hold off with the scenarios. Even they need time to unfold... For now I have my salad for dinner. Cheers!
Image
User avatar
aldente
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 1554
Joined: Fri 20 Aug 2004, 03:00:00

Re: PO MAY BE OUR SALVATION

Unread postby whiteknight » Sun 21 Aug 2005, 11:56:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spudbuddy', ' ')I still believe that capitalism is like a bad guard dog with big teeth and a ravenous appetite on a leash that's way too long.


Logic is like pretty flower, that smells bad...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spudbuddy', 'W')e wouldn't be in this position if reasonable limits to growth had been set up a long time ago. They weren't...in fact, the opposite happened.
It looks to me like a religious dogma...you have to grow grow grow or you die.
Why?


We are in this postion because the govts of the western world have been willing to trade blood for cheep oil for 50 years. When the first feilds started peaking in the 70's instead of letting the price slowly rise as it should have we racheted up the bloodletting and kept a long line of tinpot dictators in power as long as they would keep cheep oil flowing.

Had we not used politics and power projection to keep the prices down we would have been bringing efficency solutions online much sooner and as the price continued to rise we would have worked on alternatives and other such things.

However, we now fact the facts that no amount of bombs or ships can make the oil flow faster and new consumers are commng online. So we need to go from power projection and politics to direct involvement to do what is neccisary to keep our peice of the oil pie.

As for the growing or dieing thing... thats a function of our monetary policy. The govt needs to print money to pay for programs that we cant realy afford and that money needs to be absorbed into the economy, as we print more than we realy need the economy needs to grow in stupid ways to keep sucking the money up.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spudbuddy', 'I')t's the all or nothing kind of mentality.....what rules demand that?


Entropy man, entropy! Its the second law man! Doncha see man! Banana man, banana!

Actualy no rules demand that. Its all in the minds of bananaers. They have a world they WANT to see, and they figger the banana scenario will bring it about. They ignore anyting that goes against that central goal.
User avatar
whiteknight
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 254
Joined: Tue 09 Aug 2005, 03:00:00

Re: PO MAY BE OUR SALVATION

Unread postby skyemoor » Sun 21 Aug 2005, 12:19:05

In a sense, PO may reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, unless we make a big shift to oil shale, coal, etc. All we would do then would be to slightly delay PO, but accelerate climate disruption.

It all depends upon how sacred people hold their highly energy gluttonous livestyles, and how much fossil fuel campaign contributions sway their votes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')However, Duke's are usually appointed on high and not amongst the
lowly. That is, in the unlikely event that a feudal system breaks out,
your Duke will be a buddy of the Grand Gumball-possibly a relative
or at least a TRUSTED corrupt confidante of the people at the higher
level.


These people are currently known as Pioneers and Rangers, and here's the list to consult;
http://www.whitehouseforsale.org/Contri ... search.cfm

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Personally, I'd rather work to prevent all this feudal roughness.
Sack cloth makes me itchy.


Considering the plight of other nations (e.g., Somalia) that have descended into thousands of skirmishes their governments could'nt cope with and failed as a result, you might want to start raising some Merino sheep for more comfortable clothing.

It's one thing to say that the UN will march in everywhere when governments start failing, but what happens when you pull out the bottom portions of a house of cards?
User avatar
skyemoor
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1512
Joined: Sat 16 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Appalachian Foothills of Virginia
Top

Re: PO MAY BE OUR SALVATION

Unread postby DaveA » Sun 21 Aug 2005, 22:05:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whiteknight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')However, Duke's are usually appointed on high and not amongst the
lowly. That is, in the unlikely event that a feudal system breaks out,
your Duke will be a buddy of the Grand Gumball-possibly a relative
or at least a TRUSTED corrupt confidante of the people at the higher
level. I hope you have kissed the Gumball's behind to this point.
It may not be enough. In fact the Gumball isn't even in sight right
now. He just emerges after the usual bloodletting.


Most of the "royalty" of early feudalism were romans who never packed up when the empire rolled back. Some were nothing more than local bandits who rolled up on a farming villiagge and said "nice place you got here, be a shame if it got trashed" There was no "appointment" just an acceptance over time.

Mind you, if the gubbement can keep its shit togather through all this then the whole feudal thing is a moot point, but if they are affected as much as the rest of soceity is then there will be great big areas they wont give a damn about and at that point its up for the best organized group to deal with it. Isuspect the rich areas of town will be their primaryfocus and all theoutlaying areas will get to suffer without any formal protection. In that vaccume power will be there for the grabbing. Once gubberment can start rolling out again they will find these defacto settlements and either bust them all up wasting lots of effort and lives or accept the status quo. While they might snicker behind my back at "Duke Graves" they will accept the products flowing from my foundries and take their cut happily.


The military can and will be fully functional no matter what happens, a friend of mine told me military bases run pretty efficiently, and they have the largest stockpiles of... well everything!

It is because of this I don't see the federal government collapsing, if the dollar reaches a value of zero they will use food as a bargaining chip to keep the masses working with government ration programs.
User avatar
DaveA
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Thu 18 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: PO MAY BE OUR SALVATION

Unread postby Beagle » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 00:32:36

I think one of the problems with the "doomer" outlook is the fact that here in the west we're a few generations into an incredibly wasteful lifestyle and quite a lot of forumers here cannot even imagine how we can possibly conserve and contract our use of resources. It's either the status quo or total breakdown.

For example, we have endless sprawling suburbs of monster houses being heated for only 2 or 3 people, yet for some reason we're going to start burning tonnes more coal to maintain them all instead of moving more people into fewer houses. Why cannot intelligent people figure out that it uses a lot less energy to heat one big house to house 15 or 20 people than a whole block with 3 or 4 people per house.

So the economy takes a nosedive, your neighbours are losing their jobs and your relatives houses are being foreclosed on? No problem, you're just going to have to modify your living arrangements. Extended families will move back in together and pool resources. Gas too expensive? Well, lose the cable T.V. and no drive to Florida this year. However, this type of shift is not going to start until it is unavoidable.

Today, I see wealthy couples living alone in 4000 sqft. houses in the exurbs on 1 or 2 acres of ex-farmland surrounding every city in North America. These houses are fully serviced by their cities at incredible expense and use incredible amount of energy. This type of thing is the epitome of excess and waste in our society. We will go a long way in elliminating this stuff before we have to start eating our neighbours.

Of course, if you're one of these couples and you can't possible see what's wrong with your lifestyle or imagine changing it. "Oh, I'd just die if I didn't have 600 thead count percale sheets and a down duvet"... Then you just might.

It's not hard for me to see the above type housing supporting large extended families in the future who use all that land to grow food and raise a few animals. Perhaps they'll have one car amongst them to take the occasional trip into town to get supplies and maybe sell some things. With our modern communications maybe someone will be working from home and maybe some others will carpool into the city on Monday and stay there till Friday and carpool back. Kinda like the 30's but vastly different of course due to advances in technology etc.

The question is can we adjust fast enough to compensate for a 2 to 3% decline in oil production per annum over the next decades. I think we can. At least some countries will. It all depends on leadership (and that's where my personal pessimism kicks in).
O Quam cito transit gloria mundi...
User avatar
Beagle
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 20
Joined: Sat 17 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re: PO MAY BE OUR SALVATION

Unread postby DaveA » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 03:02:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beagle', '.')


So the economy takes a nosedive, your neighbours are losing their jobs and your relatives houses are being foreclosed on? No problem, you're just going to have to modify your living arrangements. Extended families will move back in together and pool resources. Gas too expensive? Well, lose the cable T.V. and no drive to Florida this year. However, this type of shift is not going to start until it is unavoidable.

Today, I see wealthy couples living alone in 4000 sqft. houses in the exurbs on 1 or 2 acres of ex-farmland surrounding every city in North America. These houses are fully serviced by their cities at incredible expense and use incredible amount of energy. This type of thing is the epitome of excess and waste in our society. We will go a long way in elliminating this stuff before we have to start eating our neighbours.


What will happen to these wealthy couples (many of them baby boomers) when peak oil hits (or more accurately when the housing bubble pops, which I believe will do wonders for softening peak oil for the United States)? Their children with their little kids will be kicked out of their mcmansion they couldn't affoard in the suberbs and move back in with mom and dad and bring their kids with them - this scenario will play out a million times over country wide.


They lose their $30,000 SUV (only $4000 or so of which they've payed for) and have to go buy a used car for a modest price - and being more wiser with the $5,6,7,etc gas prices it will be of a type that gets better gas mileage (for example, my 98 pontiac gets ~30 MPG in stop and go traffic and costed way less than my brothers titanic SUV which drinks up gasoline like an alcohalic locked in a liquor store). You've now reduced the energy required for this group of people subsantially, multiple this by hundreds of thousands or even MILLIONS of families across the country which will be in similar situations when the housing bubble pops (something which I see as a good thing - being outside the bubble myself), having a net effect of cutting nationwide demand pretty substantially. This is completely seperate from conservation measures, California is proof of those measures being in and of themselves quite effective.

Image

Now it did not take California very long to implement these measures, and they haven't ever deviated from them despite the capacity for them to given increases in the economy along the way, I think the same could be said for most of the rest of the country if we had to reduce our output.



So why hasn't our country responded in such a way yet? It's because the people believe that high energy costs are just a fad, the fault of some brown people in some crappy part of the world somewhere - I have a feeling "conservation" will re-enter the national vocabulary sometime within the next year or two.
User avatar
DaveA
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Thu 18 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: PO MAY BE OUR SALVATION

Unread postby whiteknight » Tue 23 Aug 2005, 02:35:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DaveA', 'T')he military can and will be fully functional no matter what happens, a friend of mine told me military bases run pretty efficiently, and they have the largest stockpiles of... well everything.


Checked with a couple 20 year veterans I know. I was only in for one term and saw fewer bases so I had to double check my impression with some long timers.

A) Bases are horribly inneficent, wasn't just the ones I saw but ones that two twenty year vets saw. The military and efficency dont go togather real well. The military and breaking shit does go togather...

B) Stockpiles of ammo and feul but not food. They may have some MREs laying around but not enough for the population of the base for more than a few weeks. Unless they trade ammo for food they will be as screwed as we would be. They are dependant upon the same supply and transport systems that we are.
User avatar
whiteknight
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 254
Joined: Tue 09 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: PO MAY BE OUR SALVATION

Unread postby oiless » Tue 23 Aug 2005, 10:55:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whiteknight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DaveA', 'T')he military can and will be fully functional no matter what happens, a friend of mine told me military bases run pretty efficiently, and they have the largest stockpiles of... well everything.


Checked with a couple 20 year veterans I know. I was only in for one term and saw fewer bases so I had to double check my impression with some long timers.

A) Bases are horribly inneficent, wasn't just the ones I saw but ones that two twenty year vets saw. The military and efficency dont go togather real well. The military and breaking shit does go togather...

B) Stockpiles of ammo and feul but not food. They may have some MREs laying around but not enough for the population of the base for more than a few weeks. Unless they trade ammo for food they will be as screwed as we would be. They are dependant upon the same supply and transport systems that we are.

No experience with the US military. Last dealings I had with the Canadian military they were switching to JIT (just in time, or "just a bit too late", as I call it) supply. I would not expect the US to be different. So, supplies of munitions and machinery, and not much else.
My experience also confirms the inefficiency of top-down military systems. Lots of busy work and ass-covering, not much efficiency. Lots of breaking stuff, throwing stuff away, and wasting money.
User avatar
oiless
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: British Columbia, Canada
Top

Re: PO MAY BE OUR SALVATION

Unread postby oiless » Tue 23 Aug 2005, 11:00:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whiteknight', 't')he powers tha be wont give a shit if you call yourself "CEO" "Owner" "Duke" or "Master of Reality" and they certainly wont give a shit how you treat the employees as long as you turn out the products. As for how you handle plant security they again could care less as long as the products keep flowing and the bribes keep finding thier pockets.


Business as usual in other words. No change. :lol:
User avatar
oiless
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: British Columbia, Canada
Top

Re: PO MAY BE OUR SALVATION

Unread postby holmes » Tue 23 Aug 2005, 12:51:21

please note: DO NOT SMOKE CRACK BEFORE OR WHILE BROWSING OR POSTING ON PO.COM.
PLEASE REFRAIN FROM USING ANY REFERENCES TO THE BIBLE. IT IS A STORY made up by man. I am sure it has some factual references however it is not SCIENCE. science is observation and what is actually going on around you on this earth. do not muddy po.coms waters with sewage and industrial pollutants. thank u.

ok now with california. read up:

Land area, 2000 (square miles)
Persons per square mile, 2000

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06000.html
http://www.sprawlcity.org/studyCA/index.html

calfornia will be a migrating cascadeing ecological death zone. But they might have their lights on. :lol: :lol: :lol:
holmes
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2382
Joined: Tue 12 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: PO MAY BE OUR SALVATION

Unread postby DaveA » Tue 23 Aug 2005, 14:19:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whiteknight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DaveA', 'T')he military can and will be fully functional no matter what happens, a friend of mine told me military bases run pretty efficiently, and they have the largest stockpiles of... well everything.


Checked with a couple 20 year veterans I know. I was only in for one term and saw fewer bases so I had to double check my impression with some long timers.

A) Bases are horribly inneficent, wasn't just the ones I saw but ones that two twenty year vets saw. The military and efficency dont go togather real well. The military and breaking shit does go togather...

B) Stockpiles of ammo and feul but not food. They may have some MREs laying around but not enough for the population of the base for more than a few weeks. Unless they trade ammo for food they will be as screwed as we would be. They are dependant upon the same supply and transport systems that we are.


Ahhh but the cogs will keep turning, since the primary use of the SPR will be keeping the military running.

As for efficiency, maybe it was just that one base my friend was at? He said they had solar cells on the barracks for power, as an example.
User avatar
DaveA
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Thu 18 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Previous

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron