by DaveA » Mon 22 Aug 2005, 03:02:34
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beagle', '.')
So the economy takes a nosedive, your neighbours are losing their jobs and your relatives houses are being foreclosed on? No problem, you're just going to have to modify your living arrangements. Extended families will move back in together and pool resources. Gas too expensive? Well, lose the cable T.V. and no drive to Florida this year. However, this type of shift is not going to start until it is unavoidable.
Today, I see wealthy couples living alone in 4000 sqft. houses in the exurbs on 1 or 2 acres of ex-farmland surrounding every city in North America. These houses are fully serviced by their cities at incredible expense and use incredible amount of energy. This type of thing is the epitome of excess and waste in our society. We will go a long way in elliminating this stuff before we have to start eating our neighbours.
What will happen to these wealthy couples (many of them baby boomers) when peak oil hits (or more accurately when the housing bubble pops, which I believe will do wonders for softening peak oil for the United States)? Their children with their little kids will be kicked out of their mcmansion they couldn't affoard in the suberbs and move back in with mom and dad and bring their kids with them - this scenario will play out a million times over country wide.
They lose their $30,000 SUV (only $4000 or so of which they've payed for) and have to go buy a used car for a modest price - and being more wiser with the $5,6,7,etc gas prices it will be of a type that gets better gas mileage (for example, my 98 pontiac gets ~30 MPG in stop and go traffic and costed way less than my brothers titanic SUV which drinks up gasoline like an alcohalic locked in a liquor store). You've now reduced the energy required for this group of people subsantially, multiple this by hundreds of thousands or even MILLIONS of families across the country which will be in similar situations when the housing bubble pops (something which I see as a good thing - being outside the bubble myself), having a net effect of cutting nationwide demand pretty substantially. This is completely seperate from conservation measures, California is proof of those measures being in and of themselves quite effective.
Now it did not take California very long to implement these measures, and they haven't ever deviated from them despite the capacity for them to given increases in the economy along the way, I think the same could be said for most of the rest of the country if we had to reduce our output.
So why hasn't our country responded in such a way yet? It's because the people believe that high energy costs are just a fad, the fault of some brown people in some crappy part of the world somewhere - I have a feeling "conservation" will re-enter the national vocabulary sometime within the next year or two.