[reggieUK]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')ell, with only 24 respondents so far, I can hardly say this is representative or indicative of anything.

[Freeholdfarm]

I couldn't respond on the poll because of the way it was phrased (can't cut back on something you aren't spending money on in the first place!). So I'll respond here.

What will you cut back on to compensate for higher energy prices?

Travel -- I have one more long-distance trip to make this summer, back East for my middle daughter's wedding. That will probably be the last trip I make anywhere, unless on foot, and I'm still uncertain whether it will even be possible to make that trip (she's going to be really, really unhappy if Mom misses her wedding). If you are talking about general driving, we are consolidating trips to town, and making as few as possible. Eventually, I'll have to go back and forth with my bike, but I'm building up to that, as it is 12 miles each way, and I'm an out-of-shape middle aged person.

Eating out/Entertainment -- we don't eat out (have celiac disease, which makes eating out very difficult). And most of our entertainment is already free or extremely cheap.

Groceries -- I'm enlarging the garden, raise chickens and dairy goats, have some fruit trees and am going to plant more, plus some berry plants. We are adding ducks and geese this year, too. We already cook from scratch, and buy most stuff only when it's on sale. We can, and root cellar, and I plan to build a solar food dryer this year.

Purchases of capital goods -- not sure what 'capital goods' are. But I probably can't afford them anyway!

Tech Toys: Cell phones, cable TV, etc. -- we don't have cable, don't watch TV. My autistic daughter watches a lot of videos, but we check those out of the library. Don't have cell phone. I do have DSL for the computer, but that will go shortly (I think I have a one year contract, with several months left on it).

Investments -- my investments are practical things like the garden, the dairy goats, soap-making equipment, and so on. I don't have any stocks, or retirement funds.

Recreation -- most of my 'recreation' is practical stuff, such as sewing supplies, useful books, garden seeds. I'm getting stuff together to make a tent and packs for the goats, but camping is pretty cheap recreation, and the stuff will be useful if we ever had to 'bug out'.

Our place is paid for -- aside from the cars (two; one belongs to my grandmother, who seldom drives anymore, and one belongs to me), our largest expenses are utilities and property taxes. Utilities can be cut, property taxes will hopefully drop when property values drop. Other than these basic expenses, we have no debt, and can grow most of our food here, and have water, so we are in pretty good shape for whatever is coming. All we really still need is a wood stove, and Grandma isn't going to see the necessity for that until it's almost too late, I'm afraid.

Kathleen

P.S. I'm on several other forums, none of which are Peak Oil forums, and on almost all of them Peak Oil is being discussed, so a lot of people really are 'getting it'. Most of my family is aware of it, though with differing degrees of response as I don't think any of them realize yet just how serious and immediate the problem really is.

[MonteQuest]

I first posted this in April. Let's see how things have changed since then.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarnbY', 'I') agree with Elijah that conservation has great potential. What I'm worried about is the fact that the people who have a lot of 'slack to pull in' on their energy consumption, are also the ones that are well off. They're not gonna start cutting down until prices get really high. By that time the people who are already conserving (not because of energy shortage, but 'cause they have a hard time paying the bills) will be out on the streets. Add to that everyone who will lose their jobs in the travel and leisure industries. I doubt these millions of people are gonna sit around and accept the situation... Then again, Americans never cease to amaze me with the crap they put up with from their government

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'S')o who really cares? As long as people have food, we won't have rioting. And there's plenty of investments going into food and consumer staples as defensive stocks, right now.

[kmann]

It makes sense to cut back most on what takes the most energy. I voted for travel. I remember taking a "little" drive up to Fairbanks back in '98 (that's 1998) thinking I would never see gas prices that low again. Turned out to be pretty close.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'S')o who really cares? As long as people have food, we won't have rioting. And there's plenty of investments going into food and consumer staples as defensive stocks, right now.

[MonteQuest]

Another bump up. Someone said there was nothing left to discuss about the ramifications of hydrocarbon depletion.

[Revi]

People are already giving things up because of energy prices. Even with lots of incentives the average person isn't buying an SUV. The real estate bubble is popping. Who is going to disneyland? People don't have the expendable income. It's been gobbled by higher energy prices.

[IslandCrow]

Due to financial difficulties (not related to PO) the organisation I work for has posponed the purchase of a new vehicle - actually they trade in an old vehicle for a newer but still 'secondhand' and take a loan to cover the difference. Now the exchange has been posponed by at least a year. So here it is making expensive vehicles last longer.

Personnal, have always been fairly prudent (some might say tight) with my spending, so it is hard to say where cuts can be made of any significant size. There are a lot of little savings, such as buying less biscuits (= cookies for those in N.A.). Facing a pay cut, I have also almost stopped buying things for the house, and carefully consider alternatives. I need more storeage jars, but realised that a large jar of beets in a 'cheap lable brand' costs less than a empty jar of similar size in the hardware store.

As money gets tight, I think that people will use the large cheap stores more, and so the small shops will go out of business, before oil prices get to the point where people will stop driving to the mall and need to walk to the local store. I am afraid that we will destory the infrastructure that we would need on for a the power-down stage.

Given today's news of the EU cutting sugar subsidy, I would not be suprised to see several farmers in this area going out of business, although they may survive a while by switching to early potatoes. BTW I find it ironical the the EU is finally cutting subsidies on sugar at a time when the FAO is prodicting that demand will outstrip supplies. FAO Food Outlook - basic food commodities

[Revi]

Sugar prices are going up big time here in the US. A big Domino sugar factory was hurt by the hurricanes and will lead to a jump in prices. It may help the price of maple sugar. Maybe it'll make it competitive with cane sugar, but I doubt it. The price to produce it will go up as well, because of the price of oil and wood needed to produce it. We have a small maple sugaring operation and I am glad to have it now, because it may become more and more necessary to have a source of sugar in a hydrocarbon limited world. It will still work as bicycle fuel!

[Wrencher]

Hmmm.... near term... Having been through all the oil shocks in the 70's and early 80's, I am reminded of how inelastic the market for energy is. When prices go up, people cut back on 'luxury' goods and services, and those business' suffer and die. Obvious - but also new goods and services spring up to solve the new problems.

I am not sure how solvable PO is, but I have faith that there will be partial solutions to these 'new' problems.... car pooling sites, standardized shifts to allow workers from different companies to ride togther. Solar retrofitting services, both electrical and heating. Magazines, schools, retreats, and workshops will spring up to teach practical skills such as caprentry, sewing, gardening.

People don't really know how to do much anymore - they watch TV, and surf the net, and play golf and watch sports. Artisans might well flourish - potters that can use local clay might find their skills in demand. Barter might well spring up should we have a banking crisis.

I don't know anymore than anyone else. But 'back in the olden days....' a lot of this did happen, and when prosperity over took us in the 80's and 90's some good things dissappered.

Interesting thread.

Wrencher

[Chaparral]

I'm cutting back on everything except investments and books, skills and materials which I regard as investments for a post-petroleum life.

High energy prices don't affect my pocketbook that much but they will certainly affect the ability of my tenants to pay their rent. One day the tenants may start to go out of business one by one. First the rent checks will bounce, then the phones will be disconnected and then the offices/suites will be emptied of belongings. If that day comes then I hope to have bugged out by then, but until then, most of my spare pennies are going into my rural land with water and trees fund.

[dohboi]

And most of sventvkng's HEAVILY armed would-be rebels are very easily manipulated into blaming their poor, brown neighbors rather than the wealthy for any and all of their problems.

[GenghisKen]

Near term effects. It strikes me as the most obvious one will be the elimination of the US economy. The rest of the world works together much better than the US works with the rest of the world. It makes sense to gut the US economy because by doing so you eliminate 24% of the worlds energy use by only 5% of the population(the other 95% actually might eat more than once a day). Get rid of the US you gain a lot of breathing room for the rest of the world. They would be crazy not too.. so gold will rise the dollar will drop(Iran will sell in Euro's) we will watch TV and hear all is well and US the military will stay in Iraq because gas is cheaper there than back home.





Wishing ya the best all, but we already burned it

[Luckystars]

I have already cut most things. I live/work, don't drive, don't travel, don't buy things...I guess groceries.

[VinceG]

Near Term Economic effects of Peak Oil?

U.S. Deficit soars unexpectedly to $68.9 billion in October despite a drop in the cost of imported oil(!)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in October to a record $68.9 billion despite a drop in the cost of imported oil(...) Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected the trade gap to shrink in October to $62.8 billion, and the surprising growth in the imbalance suggests fourth-quarter economic growth will likely be even weaker than first thought.

While oil import prices declined in the month to an average $56.29 per barrel, the volume of crude imports surged 9.3 percent(!!!), driving the value to $17.1 billion, the second-highest on record. Imports of energy-related petroleum products, a wider category that includes propane and butane, hit a record $26.2 billion.

Isn't it unbelievable that the U.S. trade deficit widened DESPITE lower oil import prices?? Just imagine what will happen if oil prices start rising again towards 65-70 dollars a barrel...

[M_B_S]

The automobile sector is the first to die !


After big GM and FORD now the german flag ship MERCEDES is in trouble.

14000 jobs cut


It is interesting because Dubai and Kuwait are big share holders so the management from Mercedes knows the decline of Burgan oil field very well .....

[Revi]

The major US car companies are in trouble.
Why won't they sell cars that people want to buy?
Could it be because they want to dump their pensions and sell Geelys?
I looked at a car that GM has that is actually very nice the other day. It gets over 30mpg and has AWD. It turns out to be made by Toyota.

[Novus]

The whole idea of cars is non-sence anyway. Most people travel thousands of miles to and from work every year. At some point that is going to have to come to an end. In the near term GM is going to go bankrupt and the government will bail them out only to see them sink again into the abyss that is PO. Toyota and Honda will fall a few years later. In the very near term the powers that be will do everything in their power to keep this wastefull way of life going. In the very near term we will see ever growing wastefullness when we should be cutting back. At some point however, there will be a breaking point when everything just goes to hell very quickly. Think of October 1929 where in the course of one month the industrail economy went from all out boom to near complete shut in of the depression. Millionire businessmen went from selling stocks to selling apples almost overnight.