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Federal Deficit Reality

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Federal Deficit Reality

Postby trespam » Wed 08 Sep 2004, 00:09:09

Federal Deficit Reality
http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bi ... cle/id=278

I recommend reading the above article. It quantifies what many of us have known for a while: The US government is in very precarious financial condition. It's really a shame when a country like the US, that could be such a leader of the world, is instead little more than a bad example to be avoided.

Other interesting tidbits like this can often be found on:
http://www.prudentbear.com/homepage.asp
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Postby MonteQuest » Wed 08 Sep 2004, 00:39:39

This is a new twist of book-cooking! I have been watching all this quite closely. So, just where do governments get the enormous amount of money they need? Most, of course, comes from taxation; but governments often spend more than they are willing to tax from their citizens and so are forced to borrow from the Federal Reserve and international bankers. The public is led to believe that our government borrows from “the people” through savings bonds. Actually, however, only a small percentage of the national debt is held by individuals in this form.

Most government bonds, except those held by the government itself through its trust funds, are held by vast banking firms known as international banks. Total foreign ownership is now almost half of our total debt. Foreign holdings accounted for just 20 percent of U.S. debt in 1993 but they have swelled in recent years as Asian banks loaded up on U.S. Treasuries, seeking to depress their currencies against the dollar to boost exports.

In 2003 alone, the foreign reserves held by Asian central banks grew by a third to $1.9 trillion—$1 of every $4 the U.S. government owes alone. The two biggest foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries are Japan and China. South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, China and Japan say they plan to shift out of U.S. treasuries to the euro. Asian-held U.S. debt has allowed the U.S. government to finance its budget deficit and maintain low interest rates. America has to attract approximately $1.7 billion a day from foreign lenders and investors to finance this debt. Many people fear that such immense U.S. wealth in foreign hands could boomerang if, for example, the assets are unloaded abruptly in a deliberate attempt to destroy the American economy. This huge issue is hardly being covered by the CFR dominated media, is it?

In his address to the Democratic National Convention, former President Bill Clinton said, “Sure, they're competing with us for good jobs but can we enforce our trade laws against our bankers?”

In 1791, Jefferson said: “To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. If we run into such debts, we (will then) be taxed in our meat and our drink, in our necessities and in our comforts, in our labor and in our amusements. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labor of the people under the pretense of caring for them, they (will) be happy.”

“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies… The Central Bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the principles and form of our Constitution...if the American people allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”
—Thomas Jefferson 1791
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Postby trespam » Wed 08 Sep 2004, 00:59:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')his is a new twist of book-cooking! I have been watching all this quite closely. So, just where do governments get the enormous amount of money they need? Most, of course, comes from taxation; but governments often spend more than they are willing to tax from their citizens and so are forced to borrow from the Federal Reserve and international bankers. The public is led to believe that our government borrows from “the people” through savings bonds. Actually, however, only a small percentage of the national debt is held by individuals in this form.


I just want to emphasize that there are really two unaccounted items in the deficit: (a) current borrowing against social security trust fund receipts, which are current net positive and (b) the amount of money that should be put aside for future social security and medicare payments.

These numbers are particularly good to look at:

GAAP-Based GAAP-Based
Fiscal "Official" Deficit Without Deficit With
Year Deficit Soc. Sec., Etc. Soc. Sec., Etc.
------------------------------------------------------------
2004 est. $445 Billion $800 Billion $4.3 Trillion
2003 $374 Billion $665 Billion $3.7 Trillion
2002 $158 Billion $365 Billion $1.5 Trillion
------------------------------------------------------------


It shows that the actual deficit is probably more like $800 billioin for 2004. And then the $4.3 trillion number is what we should be putting aside in order to put social security and medicare into shape for 2018 and beyond.

So the government is not borrowing money from any secret places. They are (a) borrowing social security payments that are currently available and (b) not putting aside the money necessary for social security.

What this article really means is that social security is DOA.
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Postby MonteQuest » Wed 08 Sep 2004, 01:17:11

I agree. If you read my Perfect Storm thread in Round table, you saw I placed a lot of emphasis on that issue. It was all over the news tonight with Scarborough Country on MSNBC finally giving it some air time.

What has me stratching my head is what the powers that be have it mind to deal with this issue? The international banking cartel has always been controlled by members of the ruling elite. Look at Weimar Germany. In New York and London, these bankers manipulated the mark vs dollar exchange rate. In late 1922, the German government had tried to support the mark by purchasing it in the foreign exchange markets. However, since they continued printing new currency at a feverish rate, the attempt failed. The printing presses literally could not run out money as fast as it was depreciating. This also flooded the market with hoarded Reichsmarks, causing the rampant inflation in Germany in 1923. In almost no time, a loaf of bread cost thousands of marks to buy.

The bankers used dollars to buy jewelry, artwork, homes, businesses, farms, and factories from Germans who needed the money to buy food. Within months, the German bankers had become multi-millionaires and the German people had been reduced to paupers. While the rest of the world experienced the Roaring Twenties, a time of great prosperity, Germans were in abject poverty. Many of them starved and froze to death.

Is the same scenario in store for us?
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Postby gg3 » Wed 08 Sep 2004, 05:03:56

That last quote by Jefferson is downright prophetic: "...the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless..."

Children waking up homeless are now a commonplace.

I heard that some dissident Republicans in New York were wearing T-shirts with a picture of Lincoln and the words, "It's my Party and I'll cry if I want to!"

God help us.
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Quotes

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 08 Sep 2004, 12:25:28

All that is needed to effectively control a government is to have control over the nation's money: a central bank with a monopoly over the supply of money and credit. An early attempt at an American central bank, was abolished by President Andrew Jackson, who believed that it threatened the nation.

He wrote: “The bold effort the present bank had made to control the government, the distress it had wantonly produced...are but premonitions of the fate that awaits the American people should they be deluded into a perpetuation of this institution or the establishment of another like it.”


The Rothschilds became incredibly wealthy during the nineteenth century by financing governments to war with one another. Amschel Mayer Rothschild, founder of the Banking House of Rothschild stated in 1838: “Give me the power to control the issue of a nation's currency and I care not who makes that nation's laws.”

“It is easier to rob by setting up a bank than by holding up a bank clerk.” —Bertolt Brecht 1898-1956, German Dramatist, Poet

Sounds like we have been forewarned many times doesn't it?
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Postby Guest » Wed 08 Sep 2004, 21:16:37

What would it take to institute a class-acttion suit against the govt. for those folks who are paying into SS and will never see a dime? Given that payouts are supposed to be there, and haven't been provided for seems obvious. Would the refusal of folks to pay into what essentially seems a pyramid scheme (take a look at the back of a dollar bill and notice how important the pyramids are to money ;) get them thrown in jail? Rhetorical questions.

Does sovereign immunity bar such claims?

If the U.S. was a corporation, these acctg. deceptions would land its' officers and directors in jail, don't you think?
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Postby MonteQuest » Wed 08 Sep 2004, 21:39:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', 'W')hat would it take to institute a class-acttion suit against the govt. for those folks who are paying into SS and will never see a dime?


Remember the old saying, "You can't get blood out of a turnip." The money has already been spent. We can't get it back and we can't ask our children to pay it, so were are screwed.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Postby Guest » Thu 09 Sep 2004, 01:06:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')emember the old saying, "You can't get blood out of a turnip." The money has already been spent. We can't get it back and we can't ask our children to pay it, so were are screwed.


Ah, yes. I know. But since Greenspan has now given legitimacy to the inevitabilty that the "promise" will have to be broken, now some folks (meaning anyone younger than, oh, 53, by Al's reckoning) can decide to stop contributing because that money ain't ever coming back. By "decide to stop contributing" I mean to say, through lawful political process, of course....March on Washington stuff, call your legislators demanding change...but you know as well as I do that also "ain't gonna happen."

The only Marches on Washington will be on this issue is when folks don't get their checks....and then it's too late..

Oh hell, it's already too late.

Incidentally, I just saw the movie "Open Water." Reminded me again that when it's man against nature...

This great petroleum bubble we are living is soon to burst. Our great military nation-states, no, our great corporate/elitist/kleptocracies masquerading as nation-states, which rose out of and because of petroleum, and so will fall with it, too. Never before has the world seen such awesome power displayed in the hands of so few.

Too many people, drawing too much resources, continually drawing down every resource available, too many disparities...the crash will happen. I wish it weren't so. But when? Soon enough.

I'm awestruck by how something likely to be so profoundly changing receives so little attention. Something that will occur, at best, no more than 30 years from now (EIA says 2037 and we all know how exceedingly optimistic that is). We are blindingly short-sighted. It astounds me. We are all hoping that some miracle transformation will occur, but no one knows exactly what, or how. Denial seems so fundamentally human, or shall I say, so animal, and so powerful. The entire "civilized" (as Rummy likes to call it) world hangs on by a thread, and it's so astoundingly tenuous, so breathtakingly perilous, it strikes terror in my heart, because I face what I know to be the truth. We had our chance. Every time I get in my car I sigh, and I imagine my children, and if they're lucky, their children, learning to hate me so for wasting such a valuable resource on something so incosequential as my cavalier trip to an air-conditioned movie theater.

Soon we will reach the tipping point. Remember the story "How the Grinch Stole Christmas? " When the Grinch finally brings that loaded sleigh atop the high mountain peak, it wobbles, so minutely balanced, so precariously perched, back and forth, with but a mere breath to send it forward, only to see that once that balance point is crossed, no amount of effort can stop the inevitable, inexorable, slide down the mountain.

I think back how the world was just a few hundred years ago. How vast oceans had to be crossed, how farming was so life or death, how folks crowded into cities for survival. How this fledgling nation (U.S.) had such a vast, "untapped" wilderness (save for the soon to be well, exterminated, Native Americans (the effect of disease, invasion, decimation of the bison, etc)). There was, what, 1-2 million people in the entire nation? Now, the city I live in has twice that. Amazing, really. Historically speaking, on Earth's time scale, this will be but a nanosecond flash over millions of years. Dinosaurs ruled for eons more than humans ever will.

As we reach the point where hydrocarbon depletion is utterly undeniable to the masses, the panic that will set in will sweep the world like a brush-fire, and in our haste, we will construct hundreds of new reactors, wage massive and prolonged energy wars, which only merely slows our precipitous fall, but fall we will. We will hope against hope for a miracle technology, but we will revert back to coal and other fundamental things. The wealth of this brave new world will be as it were 200 years ago, food, clothing, survival. A world divided into the energy have's and have-nots. I'll vie for my daily allotment of BTU's no doubt, thank you very much.

...Not new thoughts I know, but utterly profound to me. Whether it's next year or 2010, or 2037, it's in my lifetime, and my children's lifetime, and I'm not happy about it!

Well, on that happy note!
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Postby MonteQuest » Thu 09 Sep 2004, 01:18:55

Nice words, my friend. I have great empathy for what you are feeling. I used to be a NPS ranger, worked all over, Yellowstone to Mesa Verde. When I was 40 I wrote a little essay. Since you shared so much with me, I will return the favor.

Forty years old. Not so old, really. As a child I remember thinking about growing old, reaching "forty," or perhaps beyond. It seemed like a long way off. But as we all too suddenly find out, it is but the blink of an eye. As I reflect back through the years, I find the roots of my being: the failures, the successes, the trials, the tribulations; all the ingredients that go to make up a life. Someone once said, "The older you become, the smarter your parents appear to be." I imagine that the wise old sage who blubbered that bit of wisdom was, like myself, a recalcitrant little know-it-all in his younger days.

Although I was born in Winslow, Arizona, the locale that probably had the most influence on my life was good ol' Missouri. At the tender age of three, I went to live with my grandparents on a farm in Northwest Missouri, just a stone's throw from the Iowa line. It was there, under the influence of my grandfather, that the ground work was laid for the conservation ethic that has so dominated my life. He was a very frugal man; making do with what he had, and if forced to buy something, it was usually second-hand. This austere life, coupled with his discrete use of insecticides, herbicides, and inorganic fertilizers, made a great impression on me. It was my first lesson in the philosophy...that less is more.

During the peaceful post-war years of the 1950's, life was idyllic for a small boy with 212 acres to roam. I learned to hunt and to fish, milk a cow, drive a tractor, and, as my mother once observed, enjoy being little. I enjoyed hunting a great deal; but in later years, as I grew more aware of the environment, I found that hunting no longer had place in my life. We ate everything we shot in those days; but it was not subsistence hunting—it was sport.

Nature is at her best in the eyes of a small boy. I spent a great deal of time playing down by the "crick" on those lazy, hot summer afternoons of my early childhood; building dams, catching frogs, and remembering the first word from my Dick and Jane book.... Look! I shall never forget that time in my life. It was the best. The freedom I had then as a boy can not be bought anywhere. I will cherish those memories forever.

Throughout my life, I have been rather appalled at the way mankind has treated this planet. It has a given me very strong convictions about life and how to live it. Through diversity, we have stability; through conservation, we preserve that diversity. If only one area can be viewed as sacred, let it be the National Parks.

By the time the National Parks System was created in 1916, the frontier was gone. No longer did the bison roam the plains; never again would Native Americans follow their old ways. The thought bothered people. Thank God! Suddenly, the observations of John Muir took on a new meaning. Still, we had to go through the era of garbage-gobbling bear-feeding shows, "firefalls" in Yosemite, and, of course, the tree tunnels in Sequoia. The National Parks could not be, at once, wilderness sanctuaries and public playgrounds. The demands of conservation, we have found, are far more complex than first imagined.

In today's world, an unprotected wilderness is doomed. Edward Abbey once wrote of Canyonlands National Park: "...The least inhabited, least inhibited, least improved, least civilized...most grim bleak barren desolate and savage quarter of the state of Utah—the best by far." Like Abbey, I, too, love the desert. The desert visitor tends not to revere the desert as he would the green pine forest. Thus, as a result of unintentional bias, the more fragile desert plays second fiddle. If you can't handle the hard facts of solitude, searing heat, and scarce water; you are not likely to smell the flowers.

Henry David Thoreau once enumerated, "The paths to money, invariably, lead downward. To work merely for the wages your employer pays you, is to be cheated. You cheat yourself." It was with this thought in mind, that I decided to join the National Park Service. Rangers who work for the Park Service are motivated for reasons other than financial—no doubt! A concern for the environment, a dedication to public service, and an envied occupation, just to name a few. To help preserve our American heritage is our duty, and responsibility, as stewards of the earth. From the miracle of Crater Lake's blue...to the endless sawgrass prairies of the Everglades; these are our National Parks, to me, the closet thing to a sacred place. The dreams and memories they contain are in our care today; tomorrow's generations depend on us to keep them whole.

I now enter the summer years of my life; my passion has mellowed, and I don't stay up quite so late. My adamancy has been tempered with the years, and I am better able to articulate my views. All in all, everyone who touched my life affected it in some way, good or bad, more or less. Thank God, it was mostly good.

In my next forty years, I hope we all gain some wisdom into the workings of old Mother Earth. The intricate web that she weaves across this planet, startles and confuses us, one and all. "In wildness," wrote Thoreau, "is the preservation of the world."
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Postby Guest » Thu 09 Sep 2004, 01:44:34

Thank you for expressing what I feel in my heart to be true.

For but brief moments in my life, too, I've had the kind of clarity you have known and lived.

The two weeks when I was six at my grandfather's farm in New Hampshire.

The 17 days every summer from in my adolescent years in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, in the Quetico. The beauty and number of stars never ceased to amaze me, the sounds of winds through the trees, the water on the shore. I carried my life with me on my pack, and paddled where I wanted to go. I shared with others, learned to be thankful, and enjoyed the briefest of moments of complete serenity and solitude.

A sereneness I have never felt before or since. Thoreau has it right. Muir, too. So, too Chief Seattle, and Sigurd Olson. Not in the commonly vilified tree-hugging way, but real, true, honest, understanding of the power and limits of nature and our world.

We have been ripped from the land that sustains us, have lost our traditional knowledge, and now face what we must face. I have little hope that this way of life will continue. We will continue blindly marching on, to our destruction. The truth is, though, the Earth will survive, forests will re-grow, the tectonic plates will continue to re-birth and subsume continents, and so forth. Whether a significant number of people will be around seems rather doubtful. Sometimes I get a strange notion that Mars was once like us many millions of years ago, and serves as a warning to the unchecked growth of a species. But examples in nature are all around us, if we choose to listen, and to learn.

Catabolic state is what we will soon be in, where in order to survive, we must win at the sake of others. But then no one wins.

One thing is certain, I cherish each day, and try to set an example like someone did for you.
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Postby MonteQuest » Thu 09 Sep 2004, 01:56:31

Ah...waxing poetically. We don't do it often enough. Here is one of my more cynical proses while a ranger at Rainbow Bridge NM.

Rainbow Bridge. Great place. Well, at least it once was...that was before the dam. Rainbow Bridge was first seen by the "White Man" on August 14, 1909. At that time, this region was probably one of the most isolated, pristine settings anywhere in the continental United States. Only a few enchanted souls had ever gazed upon this Nonnesoshi; the "rainbow turned to stone." Then, in 1964, came Lake Powell and the Glen Canyon Dam, and the magic almost vanished.

Now, each year, hundreds of thousands of "comfort-loving, boating enthusiasts" lurch and stagger their drunken way up the path that leads to this magnificent arch of Navajo sandstone. Most of them appear content to only go half-way, take a picture to prove that they were really there, and stumble back again for another "cold-one." What was once a trip only the most hardy ever attempted, had now become something not worth completing. Degenerates, and other senseless individuals continue to battle immortality by worrying their names into the stone; somehow extending a life of questionable worth. The vegetation is trampled, rock panels defaced, litter neatly snuggled in the handy rock crevices, and cigarette butts ground into the soil even as a Ranger speaks. People ask me, " How soon will Rainbow Bridge fall down?" I reply, "Long after Man has joined the ranks of the extinct." "The Indian never trusted the "White Man," as he appeared to the Indian as quite presumptuous; a quality they never fathomed. How could anyone presume to improve upon Nature, much less, out live it?

A very strange clientele frequents this lake; although for the sake of the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, they only converge on the 13% that the lake represents. As one makes the 53 mile boat trip to Rainbow Bridge NM, he usually makes at stopover at the Dangling Rope Marina. Dangling Rope...strange moniker for a remote canyon deep within the labyrinth of Lake Powell. But, indeed, it is a strange place; a floating gas tank servicing the myriad collection of boats and water toys that frequent this rich man's playground. Gone are the days when one could purchase an old inner-tube and slowly float the waters of Glen Canyon. Hidden beneath the impoundment of "Lake Foul," lie glens of magnificent beauty, ruins of the long gone Anasazi, and tons of boat litter; from fishing poles to disposable diapers.

Visitors on the dock congregate near the ever present schools of carp, gleefully participating in the inevitable "feeding of the wildlife" that occurs in every park, especially near posted signs. Swimsuits vary, of course, some leaving little to the imagination, while others floss the anal cavity. More alcohol is probably consumed than gas, fueling the cause of most boating accidents.

Many say they come here to get away from it all. But, in actuality, few really do. In fact, most of them bring it with them in the form of toys from jet skis to VCR's. Far from the comforts of civilization, they still queue up in zigzagging lines to "reach out and touch someone" via Ma Bell. When the phone is down, so is visitor morale. They feel so cut off from the world...And, you know, they're right. They are.
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Federal budget defecits - do they matter?

Postby Texas_T » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 16:41:41

I know that the issues of the Federal government budget defecit and national debt are generally racked with emotion - "we are borrowing from future generations", etc. Yet my late father, a very pragmatic non-political man, who knew a lot about economics, always said that the federal defecits and national debt do not matter at all.

I am not well educated in economics myself, so I wanted to throw the question out here for those that are a lot smarter than I am - all politics and emotion aside, is there a valid rationale for saying that federal budget deficits and debt do not matter to the economy?

I should point out that my father made these statements during the "Reaganomics" era of Reagan and Bush. I have always assumed (perhaps wrongly) that what he meant had a lot to do with the government's ability to print money and control the money supply, making the federal govt fundamentally different from the "typical" debtor.
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Re: Federal budget defecits - do they matter?

Postby jaws » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 18:26:44

If federal budget deficits didn't matter, we could get rid of all taxes and fund the government exclusively through deficit spending.
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Re: Federal budget defecits - do they matter?

Postby rogerhb » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 18:29:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'I')f federal budget deficits didn't matter, we could get rid of all taxes and fund the government exclusively through deficit spending.


I thought that was their plan (oh, and just printing money)....

edit: sp
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Re: Federal budget defecits - do they matter?

Postby aldente » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 19:43:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Texas_T', 'I') should point out that my father made these statements during the "Reaganomics" era of Reagan and Bush. I have always assumed (perhaps wrongly) that what he meant had a lot to do with the government's ability to print money and control the money supply, making the federal govt fundamentally different from the "typical" debtor.


If you want to educate yourself about deficit spending and how it was introduced during the Reagan time listen to the interview with Dr. Craig Roberts that PetroDollar recommends.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic17216.html
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Re: Federal budget defecits - do they matter?

Postby pup55 » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 19:46:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')s there a valid rationale for saying that federal budget deficits and debt do not matter to the economy


You are from Texas, so you were probably looking for more or less a straight answer.

The answer is, most of the time, deficits and debt matter to the economy a lot. Sometimes, they work in our favor, sometimes they do not. Sometimes they do not matter. So, at times, the statement is correct, but this is pretty rare, frankly.

Deficits and debt have been popular since the founding fathers of the country used them to finance the revolutionary war. The reasoning at the time was that we needed an army to fight King George, and there were no tax laws at the time to speak of, so it was logical. The other reason was to ensure the loyalty of the elite class, in that if the elite loaned the government a lot of money, it stood to reason that they would do what they could to make sure the government succeeded so they could get their money back.

It makes a lot of sense for the government to borrow money to pay for projects that increase productivity, and improve the economy. In fact, it's in the preamble to the Constitution (promote the general welfare). I am thinking about the Erie Canal, for example. Because of that Canal, trade became more productive, the economy got better, the population expanded, etc. and eventually, the project paid for itself.

Lincoln financed the civil war initially by borrowing, but decided in 1862 to institute a tax to shake down the public to join him in his noble struggle against the secessionists. The result was the Tammany Riots of 1863 and 1864 which almost got him thrown out of office. The confederates used both debt financing and cranking up the printing press to keep their side financed reference and the end result was use of these bonds and currency as wallpaper in many of the houses in the south during the reconstruction.

After the stock market crash of 1929, even Hoover used government spending to boost the economy (example: Hoover Dam) and this idea was carried to its maximum logical extent by FDR. Govt response to the Stock Crash

In this case, a lot of this spending was on infrastructure (ex: the blue ridge parkway, grand coulee dam, Route 66, the TVA, Rural Electrification, local sewer systems, a lot of the Airports) that later sowed the seeds of the strong, powerful America that we all know and love.
In other words, a lot of this money was an investment that paid off later on with higher productivity.

The prime example of debt and deficits being used in a spineless way to avoid going to the taxpayers and asking them for more money but still doing the spending anyway, was LBJ, who tried to finance both the Great Society social programs and the Vietnam War by writing bad checks. Note that this was not really an investment in the country: Needless to say, Vietnam was money poured down a rathole, and the Great Society programs were mainly a transfer of wealth (with a few exceptions--some may disagree with this).

Reagan's deficits in the early 80's were similarly spineless. He wanted to finance a huge military buildup, to intimidate the USSR, but he had run on a platform of smaller government, and lower taxes. What to do? Reagan the Liberal chose deficit spending to avoid going to the taxpayers and asking them to support his program with their pocketbooks. Ironically, the deficit spending was not an investment, it was just an exercise in frivolity, to supposedly "defend the country" against an economy that was not capable of designing a practical refrigerator, as we later found out.

in order to undo what, at the time, was regarded as a terrible mess, George I had to go against his pledge, and raise taxes in 1989. Although this cost him the election, he at least had the courage to go to the people and ask them to chip in for the party. Ultimately, this (plus helpful lowering of interest rates by Greenspan) sowed the seeds for renewed confidence in the economy, and the resultant boom and surplus of the 90's.

Which brings us to George II, the champion bad check writer of all time, spender of $8T more than he has taken in, and, out of pure audacity, creating a situation that makes 1986 and 1987 look like a panhandling operation. This is another clear case of spinelessness, refusal to ask the American People to sacrifice in this so-called "war on terror", and simultaneous looting of the treasury to enrich the People's Republic of China, the richest 1% of the population and the defense contractors. Once again, the tragedy is, this money was spent with minimal benefit to infrastructure and future productivity, and in fact, was just a party. The real irony was, we did not really even get that much economic growth out of it: As Perot would say, spending that much money more than you take in, we should be living in utopia: have no poverty, an efficient way to stop communicable diseases and do hurricane repairs, a nation full of new bridges and sewers and highways and ultra modern everything. We could even have invested in railroads, etc. for improved energy efficiency. But, instead, we have frittered this money away, and have essentially not squat to show for it.

As to the future: Per our earlier post, the economy is big, and this situation is controllable, but it is not sustainable indefinitely. This money will have to be paid back, and if you believe in a supreme being, he or she had better start cooperating, because if we do not get really greatly improved economic growth, we will eventually grind to a screeching halt when people start to doubt the ability of the government to pay back this money. At some point, interest rates will have to be high enough to attract investors to our junk bonds, at which point we will be in the same boat as such economic powerhouses as Ecuador, whose prime rate is 25%. At that point, we will have the great cleansing: no one will be able to afford to buy a house, a car, or anything else on credit, and we will be looking for scapegoats, starting with the elected officials that got us into this mess, and finishing up with the people, and we all know who they are, who fattened up during this historic time. Blood may have to run in the streets before this happens, like it nearly did during the depression.

Sorry for the diatribe and history lesson. Others may wish to comment.
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Re: Federal budget defecits - do they matter?

Postby mrflora » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 19:53:45

Franklin Roosevelt, after his administration began deficit spending during the Depression, was quoted as saying, "After all, we only owe it to ourselves". That is not true today. A very large chunk of the total debt, in excess of 50% (I believe) is owed to foreigners, the top three being the British, the Japanese, and the Chinese. These people expect to get interest on their investment, which means more U.S. government outlays for payments.

The Reagan administration began large-scale tax cuts and the selling of bonds and T-bills to replace tax revenues, thus causing wealthy Americans and foreigners to foot the bill for the federal bureaucracy (wealthy Americans like this because their taxes are reduced, AND the government owes them money). The U.S. is the only nation that can do this on such a large scale, due to its huge and (relatively) stable economy, the fact that the dollar is the world reserve currency, and of course U.S. military dominance, the ultimate "big stick".

Can this system continue much longer? I do not know, although I suspect that it will reach some sort of peak in the next 10 years or so. If the U.S. ever defaults on its interest payments, it will be a watershed event and (I suspect) will mark the beginning of the period of decline for the U.S. as the world's dominant power.

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Re: Federal budget defecits - do they matter?

Postby rogerhb » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 20:31:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrflora', '"')After all, we only owe it to ourselves".


.... and it's your children who will pay.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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