by pup55 » Sun 19 Mar 2006, 19:46:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')s there a valid rationale for saying that federal budget deficits and debt do not matter to the economy
You are from Texas, so you were probably looking for more or less a straight answer.
The answer is, most of the time, deficits and debt matter to the economy a lot. Sometimes, they work in our favor, sometimes they do not. Sometimes they do not matter. So, at times, the statement is correct, but this is pretty rare, frankly.
Deficits and debt have been popular since the founding fathers of the country used them to finance the revolutionary war. The reasoning at the time was that we needed an army to fight King George, and there were no tax laws at the time to speak of, so it was logical. The other reason was to ensure the loyalty of the elite class, in that if the elite loaned the government a lot of money, it stood to reason that they would do what they could to make sure the government succeeded so they could get their money back.
It makes a lot of sense for the government to borrow money to pay for projects that increase productivity, and improve the economy. In fact, it's in the preamble to the Constitution (promote the general welfare). I am thinking about the Erie Canal, for example. Because of that Canal, trade became more productive, the economy got better, the population expanded, etc. and eventually, the project paid for itself.
Lincoln financed the civil war initially by borrowing, but decided in 1862 to institute a tax to shake down the public to join him in his noble struggle against the secessionists. The result was the Tammany Riots of 1863 and 1864 which almost got him thrown out of office. The confederates used both debt financing and cranking up the printing press to keep their side financed
reference and the end result was use of these bonds and currency as wallpaper in many of the houses in the south during the reconstruction.
After the stock market crash of 1929, even Hoover used government spending to boost the economy (example: Hoover Dam) and this idea was carried to its maximum logical extent by FDR.
Govt response to the Stock Crash
In this case, a lot of this spending was on infrastructure (ex: the blue ridge parkway, grand coulee dam, Route 66, the TVA, Rural Electrification, local sewer systems, a lot of the Airports) that later sowed the seeds of the strong, powerful America that we all know and love.
In other words, a lot of this money was an investment that paid off later on with higher productivity.
The prime example of debt and deficits being used in a spineless way to avoid going to the taxpayers and asking them for more money but still doing the spending anyway, was LBJ, who tried to finance both the Great Society social programs and the Vietnam War by writing bad checks. Note that this was not really an investment in the country: Needless to say, Vietnam was money poured down a rathole, and the Great Society programs were mainly a transfer of wealth (with a few exceptions--some may disagree with this).
Reagan's deficits in the early 80's were similarly spineless. He wanted to finance a huge military buildup, to intimidate the USSR, but he had run on a platform of smaller government, and lower taxes. What to do? Reagan the Liberal chose deficit spending to avoid going to the taxpayers and asking them to support his program with their pocketbooks. Ironically, the deficit spending was not an investment, it was just an exercise in frivolity, to supposedly "defend the country" against an economy that was not capable of designing a practical refrigerator, as we later found out.
in order to undo what, at the time, was regarded as a terrible mess, George I had to go against his pledge, and raise taxes in 1989. Although this cost him the election, he at least had the courage to go to the people and ask them to chip in for the party. Ultimately, this (plus helpful lowering of interest rates by Greenspan) sowed the seeds for renewed confidence in the economy, and the resultant boom and surplus of the 90's.
Which brings us to George II, the champion bad check writer of all time, spender of $8T more than he has taken in, and, out of pure audacity, creating a situation that makes 1986 and 1987 look like a panhandling operation. This is another clear case of spinelessness, refusal to ask the American People to sacrifice in this so-called "war on terror", and simultaneous looting of the treasury to enrich the People's Republic of China, the richest 1% of the population and the defense contractors. Once again, the tragedy is, this money was spent with minimal benefit to infrastructure and future productivity, and in fact, was just a party. The real irony was, we did not really even get that much economic growth out of it: As Perot would say, spending that much money more than you take in, we should be living in utopia: have no poverty, an efficient way to stop communicable diseases and do hurricane repairs, a nation full of new bridges and sewers and highways and ultra modern everything. We could even have invested in railroads, etc. for improved energy efficiency. But, instead, we have frittered this money away, and have essentially not squat to show for it.
As to the future: Per our earlier post, the economy is big, and this situation is controllable, but it is not sustainable indefinitely. This money will have to be paid back, and if you believe in a supreme being, he or she had better start cooperating, because if we do not get really greatly improved economic growth, we will eventually grind to a screeching halt when people start to doubt the ability of the government to pay back this money. At some point, interest rates will have to be high enough to attract investors to our junk bonds, at which point we will be in the same boat as such economic powerhouses as Ecuador, whose prime rate is 25%. At that point, we will have the great cleansing: no one will be able to afford to buy a house, a car, or anything else on credit, and we will be looking for scapegoats, starting with the elected officials that got us into this mess, and finishing up with the people, and we all know who they are, who fattened up during this historic time. Blood may have to run in the streets before this happens, like it nearly did during the depression.
Sorry for the diatribe and history lesson. Others may wish to comment.