[MD]

Hi adi, welcome!

All the data you could ever want regarding Peak Oil is contained within these forum records!

Post your questions also, everyone here is happy to answer even if it has been posted many times

To answer your question:

The most pessimistic think peak oil production has alrerady passed, which means each year the world will produce less.

The most optimistic put the date out about 25 years.
(expect the real extremist who thinks the world is full of oil and we will never run out)

[clv101]

Welcome to the forum! For the UK perspective check out www.powerswitch.org.uk.

[Raxozanne]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('adi', '
')Thats very soon indeed. Is it correct to assume that leading companies and governments are aware of this and making plans or is that too optimistic?

[adi]

You would think a country like Britain with rapidly declining 'home' oil reserves would be planning for such events surely?

It does sound as though times could become pretty tough. They can't be that negligent can they?

[Raxozanne]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('adi', ' ')They can't be that negligent can they?

[adi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('adi', ' ')They can't be that negligent can they?

[Raxozanne]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('adi', '
')And I suppose when the shit does hit the fan they can always blame previous administrations for failing to spot the trend and planning accordingly.

[jsurly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', '
')Well an official report (I can't remember the name of the report) stated that planning needed to have started 30 years before peak to mitigate any serious problems. This didn't occur.

[Lukethedrifter]

Hello, I'm new to this idea of peak oil. I just learned about it in the last 3 or 4 days and I'm not at all suprised at anything I've learned. I'm not in panic mode but rather I am prepared to prepare myself. I'm not one to think that the world will end tommorow but I am willing to accept the fact that the life I've known for 27 years will change. I forsee people having to learn to be self reliant due to the fact that I expect unemployment to rise and there to be food shortages. (5 to 10 years out) It seems that there is still time to prepare one self and no need for panic. I've been reading all about peak oil and all the opinions on the net as to what will happen. Some I believe, some I don't. I don't think that anyone can say for certain whether our society will stay in tact or whether it will be chaos as some predict. But, as I said, I am prepared to prepare. I feel fairly confident in my paticular situation but I have a few questions and would like some advice about my situation (a basic outline below). I am also concerned with sharing this information (about peak oil) with my family and those close to me. I've been discussing it with my girlfriend and closest friends and they don't seem to be real concerned. They are the types that watch MTV all day and are not intersted in world events. I, however, am and have always been intersted.

Here's my situation and I would like advice as to what the next step I should take.

I'm 27, living in a rented duplex in Austin, TX, USA. I recently graduated with a Business Management degree and am working in Telesales. I come from a fairly well to do family and my father owns 60 acres in central Texas. We have two wells (on electric pumps) on the property. We have about 50 goats, a horse and a rooster (we're trying to trap some coyotes). My father, at this point, knows nothing of peak oil, he just likes living in the country and having a simple life. There's no garden as of yet there because the deer will eat everything in it. The land is located about 6 miles from a medium sized town, 6 miles from a small town, 35 miles from Austin, and about 50 miles to San Antonio. We all drive SUVs. One of the biggest problems I feel that I am facing is that my girlfriend is Diabetic, and insulin dependent. At this point, I picture the price of everything going way up in 10 years and insulin not being affordable. Unfortunetly, one needs a prescription to obtain insulin and you can only get a little bit at a time. Right now, there is no food stored past about a months supply. I feel one would need a year's supply or more to be safe. We have A LOT of tools, welders, grinders, saws, and all that good stuff. However, most of them are electric. Like I said, I rent a duplex in Austin with the lease expiring in Dec. I'm trying to decide if I should move back in with my parents or go on with my life like I was before. I would rent for another 6 months but was considering buying a house soon. Currently, I have no debt, except for my girlfriends student loans ($10,000 or so).

So, that's my situation as best as I can think of it right now. Any advice?

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'I'm 27, living in a rented duplex in Austin, TX, USA.')

Weather good, people friendly. No state income tax. You have it made. What a great time in life!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')working in Telesales.

[SilentE]

Be smart. Even if oil peaks this year, it's going to plateau for a long time, before gradually declining, not drop off like a stone before 2010.

What do you do? Do what you been doing all along, but minimize your exposure to rising transit costs. When you buy a car, buy a small hybrid. If you can, consider a rechargable electric scooter. If there's mass transit, use it. When you buy a house, pay a little more now to live close to the urban center, because commuting 50 miles a day at $4/gallon will suck lick you can't afford.

You don't live in the Northeast, so you probably don't use heating oil. If you did, you'd want to switch to gas REAL fast (yes, gas is becoming expensive, but its more efficient than electric for severe cold). In Texas, use an electric heat pump and you'll be fine. Despite the panic stories you may read, peak oil is about OIL. Gas and Coal are secondary concerns, to be sure, but the timeframe there is at least a decade longer. As for electricity, that's gonna stay relatively cheap for much longer (very little oil is used in power plants). Still, when you make major purchases, consider spending more for high-efficiency equipment like refrigerators, washing mashines, and other major appliances.

As for healthcare, don't worry about insulin shortages and such. Austin's a big enough city that it won't become economically moribund, like smaller rural towns in KS with no jobs or hospitals. It'll come down to economics - and while healthcare in the US is screwed up beyond recognition, that's not an energy problem, its a political and market problem.

[Lukethedrifter]

Sounds like sound advice. Already got gas generators. How did you know the girlfriend didn't work already? Doesn't graduate until May, I will slave drive her then. Why do you suggest dropping the insurance for only coverage and how did you know I had full coverage? (do you know me?) I'm afraid there's no prarie dogs or I would have shot them for target practice already. How did you know I have high-speed, cell phones (which I just finally got) and cable? I'm working on the income problem, of course, why wouldn't I be. Been working on getting promoted from my current position. Buying a duplex has been an option of mine for some time. Still haven't made my mind up about that yet. Silent E, I find it funny that you gave me advice on your first post here. Though, I guess you had start somewhere and I appriciate your words of wisdom.

Thanks,

Luke

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')e smart. Even if oil peaks this year, it's going to plateau for a long time, before gradually declining, not drop off like a stone before 2010.

[pip]

Hey Luke,

Here's an off the wall question. You're not an Aggie baseball fan are you? (I recognize the user name from my other favorite message board and just thought I'd ask)

My advice for you since you're in Texas is to get a job in the oil and gas industry. I'm an engineer in oil refining. Your job will be somewhat more secure and the bonuses and raises are still doing great.

[Mo_Oil_Dave]

Hello Luke...

The only thing I can recomend is for you to secure the two wells on the ranchette. You mentioned that they are electric, so I am assuming they are dependent on commercial power.

So, look into converting at least one of them to solar power. I have seen several adds in Home Power magazine for kits to do just that.

Water is life, Water is in-dependence.

Then you can fence off an area around the well for your garden.

Good luck

David

[Lukethedrifter]

Pip,

Nope, not an aggie fan. I have used the same user name many times but I ain't interested in sports. Would you care to give me a reference for a place at your company? If so, pm me and I'll get you my resume. It sounds like a smart idea to me.

Dave, I'll keep that in mind.

[pup55]

People buy insurance because they are afraid something bad will happen. The insurance companies know this of course.

If you run into somebody else's car, your insurance pays to have the other guy's car fixed. This is the liability part, and is required by law. If somebody else hits you, it's the same thing, because he is required to have liability too.

But anything over and above that is so that you can get your own car fixed if you wreck it yourself.

So what you have to have is a two-part strategy: a. Don't wreck your car. This is 99% controllable by you. All you have to do is drive like a little old lady. b. get a cheap car, so the worst case scenario is if you wreck it, you are sad, and just walk away. To insure a young man for collision might cost you $1000 per year over and above the minimum liability. You should check this to see if that is the case, but I think it is about right. If you drive a $5000 junky car, and you drive it for five years, the worst case scenario is that you get into a wreck once every five years and break even. But, remember, that you are not going to wreck it, so basically you just put this money in your pocket. The system works.

Anyway the insurance companies know the probabilities on all this, and set the rates and deductibles so as to be able to make a nice fat profit. So, since you are not going to get into a wreck, you can beat this game, and use this money for some good PO projects.

[DigitalCubano]

Hi everyone. While I've already published a couple of posts, I neglected to write an introduction blurb. My name is Tony and I live in Quincy, MA. I'm a PhD student in Aero/Astro at MIT working on developing a Real Options methodology for product development and investment in the air transportation industry. I became aware of Peak Oil via my research and I have developed a kind of morbid curiousity in the subject as it appeals to my background in engineering, logistics and finance. Given some of the more dire scenarios that I've read, I guess it also appeals to my survival instinct!

Despite my asssociation with a technological institution, I do not advocate the strategy comprised of putting our blind faith solely into the confluence of market forces and technical ingenuity (i.e. what Heinberg termed "Waiting for the Magic Elixer"). I hope for a forum wherein representatives of many, if not all, of the relevant stakeholders get together to comprehensively address the issue from all angles: ecological, enviromental, economic, etc. Maybe this message board is a first step? I've already learned quite a bit from your myriad posts and hope that I can contribute something as well!

Ideological Stance: Doomer at first, cautious optimist at present.

[seldom_seen]

MIT? Do you have anything to comment on this thread? transportation breakthrough!

Welcome to the thunderdome!

[OilsNotWell]

Hello as well, and welcome to the forum!

I had some experience working with some particularly proprietary 'methodologies' concerning reservations with a major airline [hint: it's based in Texas ] that perhaps parallels your interest.

However, due to my recent and quite extensive research regarding the peak in world oil production and the profound changes it will by necessity engender, I have come to believe there is not too much hope for the airline industry as it now stands.

What this means is whether peak is now, 2007, or 2010, or even 2015 in the outermost consensus (save for the crackhead politicos at the USGS), the industry will collapse upon itself and we will, in stages, revert back to the 50's, then to the 30's, in terms of numbers of passengers and number of routes. It will be reserved for the wealthy and for unusual (e.g. out of the ordinary) trips.

As far as your career goes, if you remain in academia you might have a chance, or if you are a consultant on how best to manage a collapsing industry, you might be ok.

But you would be wise to heed your doomer instincts and develop your backup plans.

Cheers.

Oh, and while it may be too late (but I don't think so) to short airline stocks, some might do well in shorting airport muni bonds. Write when you get rich.[Disclaimer: not investment advice, do your own damn due diligence ]