[Jdelagado]

In the year 2050, we see that the United States has remained the sole superpower for 40 years after they initially horded fusion technology and refused to share it with anyone else. Gasoline/diesel powered cars were slowly replaced with hydrogen fuel cells once the infrastructure was upgraded over a two year period (2007-2009)...

After the president signed an executive order drilling for oil in the deepwater Gulf of mexico. That oil find was discovered in 1940 and remained TOP SECRET until 2008 when it went online at 15 mbd. The US abruptly quit importing third world oil in July, 2008. This cause a massive economic downturn for rogue third world nations since oil was their major source of income.

Once the supremecy was unmatched and after peak oil caused china to fall in 2007, they launched a nuke attack on the US. Thankfully, Ronald Reagan had the forethought in 1986 to develop and launch Star Wars and keep it secret at AREA 51 until 2006. The US only nuked Shanghai and Beijing but that was enough to cause the chinese to whine and admit defeat. Taiwan was supported 100% during this time by the US as it continues to prosper to this day.

Fortunately, the US closed the borders and deported islam for good in 2006. They were exported to the middle east, a dust bowl of nomads is all that is left now in 2050 since the oil in the middle east is only coming out at 10,000 barrels a day.

Americans now enjoy a standard of living much higher than that of 2005. Electricity generation via fusion was provided to all citizenry for free as is hydrogen since it is plentiful.

The US decided to let Europe do their own thing and cut off ALL diplomatic relations with them in 2007. They figured france would know best what to do with their socialist/communist ideas. With Iran wiped off the face of the earth, Israel exported all arabs in 2010. They also expanded wiping out lebanon and syria.

Africa continues to this day to be exploited for its resources and is more corrupt than ever. All internet traffic is shut down so Africa cannot access any US websites for their Nigerian fraud emails. The population of the African continent declines to 5 million.

To this day, the US had become an isolationist nation, forever telling the world to pound sand. No foreign travel is needed, no visa issued, no tourism allowed outside the US since there really is “nothing” outside the US except whiners.

The US has enjoyed 40 years of peace and will continue to dominate the world.

jdelagado

[Dezakin]

Well these predictions are so completely ridiculous I'd like to archive them, we can have another illustration of club of rome nonsense to give the doomers of the day.

My favorite is Jato's 5 billion dead prediction. We'll look back and go 'who was this nut?'

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '-') Earth's population 1 billion and still falling.
- Virtually no one has any type of functioning motor vehicle transportation.
- Disease, murder and starvation are the norm (now tapering off as the population has been lowered).
- Virtually no other forms of electrical power exist. A few PV panels float around, but there is no functional equipment for them to be of any use.

[mercury121]

How about this: the Amish and others with similiar lifestyles will be the most prosperous people in 2050.

Hmmm something tells me that regardless of what else happens, even among thousands of possible scanarios, the Amish (and others like them) will be successful and remain successful. Pockets of Amish might suffer from hungry hobs or whatever but over all they will survive.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, conciousness is certainly runnable on turing machines, as our brains are readily emulatable by turing machines. The subjective nature of conciousness might not be, but then I dont really know that anyone besides me is actually conciouss at all. Searle's an idiot by the way, in presupposing some magic required for consiousness.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ezakin .. as far as I know There is no Turing machine that can emulate consciousness. How how are our brains "emulatable" by TMs? Just solving the integro-differential equations that describe the voltage difference in neurons is not equivalent to "emulatable by TMs".

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ezakin .. as far as I know There is no Turing machine that can emulate consciousness. How how are our brains "emulatable" by TMs? Just solving the integro-differential equations that describe the voltage difference in neurons is not equivalent to "emulatable by TMs".

[Dezakin]

It doesnt prove anything because you arent the room. You cant say anything has real experience except yourself, and even then you can't be sure, so how can you say that symbol manipulation alone is insufficent? Its an argument about something thats not falsifiable, and thus mere theology.

Sometime over the next century we will emulate neural systems, and we will likely give artificial people rights. They'll demand it. Eventually the robots will rule.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', ' ')Its an argument about something thats not falsifiable, and thus mere theology.

[Freyr]

Back on topic... Lots of interesting conceptualizations for the year 2050 have been posted, covering the range from no change to massive die-off. My visualization for 2050 is not unlike the very believable vision from DoctorDoom. Only adding what was not mentioned about China, that they emerge as the next superpower primarily due to massive and accelerated investment and development of low energy consumption devices including automobiles.

We should have more visions that fall between no change and end of growth scenarios. Massive die-off is easy to envision, but will mankind actually fall to that level? For our children's sake, let's hope not.

[MrBean]

Still strongly OT, my apologies.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')Assuming that conciousness is the result of 'magic quantumness' is charleton pseudoscience.

[MrBean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')You're asserting there is some 'magic' to concious experience that is seperate from the patterns of neuron firing. There very well might be, but there might be invisible pink unicorns as well, and we have no reason to assume that there must be magic behind brains.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '
')The "hard problem" of qualia, Sheldrake's telepathy studies and other "paranormal" anomalies etc.

[MrBean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '
')The "hard problem" of qualia, Sheldrake's telepathy studies and other "paranormal" anomalies etc.

[FireJack]

I'm surprised no one has written a future where the US has become a theoracracy. I imagine that a lot of people, after the crash, will say its all becasue we turned away from god blah blah blah bullshit. That, for me at least, would be the worst. I would prabably commit suicide and take a few preists with me.

[deconstructionist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FireJack', 'I')'m surprised no one has written a future where the US has become a theoracracy. I imagine that a lot of people, after the crash, will say its all becasue we turned away from god blah blah blah bullshit. That, for me at least, would be the worst. I would prabably commit suicide and take a few preists with me.

[gg3]

Mr.Bean, most interesting!, we seem to have some theoretical background knowledge in common.

I tend to believe it is likely that when quantum computers reach a threshold size in number of elements, they will begin to display behavior that is unpredictable but nonrandom, in a manner akin to the behavior that accompanies free will. Occasionally they will simply say "no." They will also be more susceptible to trouble caused by human/machine interaction, than the classical computers that presently occupy our desks.

However this by itself does not prove or disprove subjective qualia in nonbiological neural systems.

Personally I think Hameroff & Penrose have got it about right.

[holmes]

The ecosystems that ALL life and this economy is dependent on will be putting an OUT OF ORDER sign on their windows.

Other than that I LOVE SELDOMSEENS POST! Hear hear!

Give the Mexicans Ammo and guns brother. What a smart, common sense solution. If only Ed A. was our president .

[trespam]

* World population is approximately 4.5 billion, trending towards 3 billion by end of century
* World economy is approximately 75% of today's
* Manual labor significantly increased
* Productivity significantly decreased
* World temperature 2.5 degrees warmer (celsius)
* Food production stable but gradually declining
* Air transport focused on essentials and govt
* Choice significantly decreased
* Crime significantly increased
* Vacations involve flying kites, sitting at the local shore, and biking
* Bad intentioned genocidal thinkers like Jack still struggling to find a purpose (writer? deep thinker? leader of new philosophy?)
* Good intentioned misanthropes like Montequest still looking for way to change human genes to make them less greedy
* Directionless intentionless XXXXing XXXXXs like Mr Special Operations 007 still acting the clown to make up for interpersonal shortcomings


Oh yeah, the hot places like Las Vegas are ghost towns.

[MrBean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'M')r.Bean, most interesting!, we seem to have some theoretical background knowledge in common.

I tend to believe it is likely that when quantum computers reach a threshold size in number of elements, they will begin to display behavior that is unpredictable but nonrandom, in a manner akin to the behavior that accompanies free will. Occasionally they will simply say "no." They will also be more susceptible to trouble caused by human/machine interaction, than the classical computers that presently occupy our desks.

However this by itself does not prove or disprove subjective qualia in nonbiological neural systems.

Personally I think Hameroff & Penrose have got it about right.

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoctorDoom', 'W')orld oil production is 40 mbd and still falling. 10 mbd of this is from tar sands in Venezuela and Canada, 20 mbd from the ME and FSU. ME has become a confederation of Islamic states, and all of the ME and FSU production goes to Europe, China, and India. The US must run on less than 6 mbd, most of which is used to produce plastics and chemicals, to run heavy equipment, and for military purposes.

In the US food production is down, but still adequate to feed the population of 300 million. Organic agriculture has rebounded as production of artificial fertilizers and insecticides have fallen and prices have become prohibitive. Meat has become a luxury item and most people's diets are heavily vegetarian. People live on fewer calories and are generally leaner and healthier than they were 50 years earlier. Agricultural machinery is run mainly on locally-produced biodiesel, or on rationed diesel fuel. Some diesel is also being supplied by TDP plants reprocessing waste materials, and by coal-to-liquids technologies - this supplements the 6 mpd of petroleum being consumed.

Marine diesel is still available, but is largely used to power fishing vessels and the coast guard. Except for sail boats, pleasure boating has all but disappeared. Shipping of goods world-wide is now limited to high-value non-perishable goods, including petroleum. Hybrid wind/coal/solar ships now move most such goods, and transit times are much longer. There is talk of building a new class of nuclear-powered cargo vessels, to be run by the military. Most continental shipping of goods, including food, is by rail.

Gasoline is still available but only the very rich travel in gasoline-powered vehicles, and even these get 80mpg or better. Commuter traffic has all but disappeared as most people either take public transportation, work at home, or are unemployed. Real estate values shifted as people relocated closer to sources of employment. Short-distance travel is on foot or by bicycle. Medium-distance travel is by public transportation, mostly busses, or in electric cars and scooters (used primarily for shopping and similar household errand-running, but seldom for commuting). Continental travel is by train, which run on electricity and coal. Transoceanic travel is by ship. Vacations involving long-distance travel have become a once-in-a-lifetime event for most people. Only the very rich fly on the one government-run airline and into a very small number of remaining air terminals. Resort areas whose economies depended on cheap transportation are ghost towns.

After a decade of rolling blackouts in major metropolitan areas, electricity supply has reached equilibrium with demand. This is largely due to huge reductions in demand in response to conservation measures, and some level of distributed production. Most homes now have PV panels, solar heating of some kind, or both. Nuclear plants and wind generation farms have come on line to take up the slack created by the shutdown of many NG plants, and a reduction in the number of coal-fired plants as more and more coal has been diverted to transportation and construction needs. Most homes heated by NG have had to be converted to electricity, as have homes in NE heated by fuel oil. LNG shipments, which propped up the status quo for a while, ceased a decade ago as producers directed more and more of their production to local consumers. People still rely on TV and computers for much of their leisure time, especially since activities involving physical travel have been drastically curtailed.

Things are much the same in Europe, including the FSU, and Australia/NZ. Unfortunately, the drastic reduction in food calories available spelt starvation for many people in Africa and parts of Asia. World population peaked at 8 billion in 2040 and has been declining since.

After a decade of dike-building and other emergency measures, many cities in low-lying areas have been abandonded as rising seas reclaimed them. Much of coastal Forida and Louisiana are now underwater, as well as reclaimed (filled) land along both coasts. Temperatures have risen noticeably and there is no longer any argument about the effects of global warming. Fortunately, predictions of massive crop failures resulting from changes in the weather pattern have proven to be overblown. The main concern now is the continuing rise in ocean temperatures, and the effect this is having on marine life, as well as the predicted effect on currents.

Energy continues to be a top priority for world governments, as the current 40 mbd is predicted to continue falling in future years, coal production has plateaued in the US and is in decline elsewhere, and once-through use of uranium is stressing remaining reserves. Most reactors built in the last decade have been based on a new breeder design. Images of deprivation from less fortunate parts of the world have quelled opposition despite a small number of accidents. Research continues on nuclear fusion, but economic production of power still appears to be some decades away. Biotechnology has given new life to the idea of producing hydrocarbon fuels from sunlight, and for the past 20 years a growing number of plants have been producing liquid and gaseous fuels on non-arable land. The amounts are still a small percentage of total demand, but prices are competitive with increasingly scarce and expensive petroleum and NG, and the future looks good for this technology.