[cube]

A typical car in the year 2050.



An "SUV" sized car of the year 2050. (this is for those with deep pockets who can afford the gas )

[johnmarkos]

Personal (short to medium distance -- 1 - 10 miles) transportation of the year 2050:



For longer distances, people generally use rail.

[Omnitir]

And for ultra long distances (intercontinental etc.):



-Though you might need a bigger boat depending on where your going

BTW, my little story before was an attempt at an optimistic prediction since most people seem incapable of anything but doom. But there’s no way I’d put money on that sort of thing coming true! Maybe in another millennium though…

[CraigX]

People live outside of cities in small autonomous communities connected electronically through the Internet. Hemp is the major resource that fuels our economy. It is our food, clothing, fuel and the center of people's lives. CraigX.com

[deconstructionist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CraigX', 'P')eople live outside of cities in small autonomous communities connected electronically through the Internet. Hemp is the major resource that fuels our economy. It is our food, clothing, fuel and the center of people's lives. CraigX.com

[Omnitir]

By 2050 we will be at war with the A.I., which have solved the problems of both PO and over population. The have captured 99% of the human population and put them into a kind of stasis, where the human mind is living in a virtually constructed world, unaware that their real bodies are trapped by the machines. The technology extracts power from each human in stasis, which has a positive EROEI. The combined output of the entire human race is enough to power the machines for their own ambitions, while the humans are blissfully unaware that they are in slavery. So the problems of energy supplies are solved, and human overpopulation turns out to be the answer (9 billion people in stasis acting as human batteries as they live their virtual lives unaware of the truth).

The only thing is it’s the machines, not the humans that benefit from the solution. That is until one by the name of Neo comes along. Then the story becomes confusing, pointless, and ultimately a load of shit. But it was all good up until then.

[DaveA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoctorDoom', 'W')orld oil production is 40 mbd and still falling. 10 mbd of this is from tar sands in Venezuela and Canada, 20 mbd from the ME and FSU. ME has become a confederation of Islamic states, and all of the ME and FSU production goes to Europe, China, and India. The US must run on less than 6 mbd, most of which is used to produce plastics and chemicals, to run heavy equipment, and for military purposes.

In the US food production is down, but still adequate to feed the population of 300 million. Organic agriculture has rebounded as production of artificial fertilizers and insecticides have fallen and prices have become prohibitive. Meat has become a luxury item and most people's diets are heavily vegetarian. People live on fewer calories and are generally leaner and healthier than they were 50 years earlier. Agricultural machinery is run mainly on locally-produced biodiesel, or on rationed diesel fuel. Some diesel is also being supplied by TDP plants reprocessing waste materials, and by coal-to-liquids technologies - this supplements the 6 mpd of petroleum being consumed.

Marine diesel is still available, but is largely used to power fishing vessels and the coast guard. Except for sail boats, pleasure boating has all but disappeared. Shipping of goods world-wide is now limited to high-value non-perishable goods, including petroleum. Hybrid wind/coal/solar ships now move most such goods, and transit times are much longer. There is talk of building a new class of nuclear-powered cargo vessels, to be run by the military. Most continental shipping of goods, including food, is by rail.

Gasoline is still available but only the very rich travel in gasoline-powered vehicles, and even these get 80mpg or better. Commuter traffic has all but disappeared as most people either take public transportation, work at home, or are unemployed. Real estate values shifted as people relocated closer to sources of employment. Short-distance travel is on foot or by bicycle. Medium-distance travel is by public transportation, mostly busses, or in electric cars and scooters (used primarily for shopping and similar household errand-running, but seldom for commuting). Continental travel is by train, which run on electricity and coal. Transoceanic travel is by ship. Vacations involving long-distance travel have become a once-in-a-lifetime event for most people. Only the very rich fly on the one government-run airline and into a very small number of remaining air terminals. Resort areas whose economies depended on cheap transportation are ghost towns.

After a decade of rolling blackouts in major metropolitan areas, electricity supply has reached equilibrium with demand. This is largely due to huge reductions in demand in response to conservation measures, and some level of distributed production. Most homes now have PV panels, solar heating of some kind, or both. Nuclear plants and wind generation farms have come on line to take up the slack created by the shutdown of many NG plants, and a reduction in the number of coal-fired plants as more and more coal has been diverted to transportation and construction needs. Most homes heated by NG have had to be converted to electricity, as have homes in NE heated by fuel oil. LNG shipments, which propped up the status quo for a while, ceased a decade ago as producers directed more and more of their production to local consumers. People still rely on TV and computers for much of their leisure time, especially since activities involving physical travel have been drastically curtailed.

Things are much the same in Europe, including the FSU, and Australia/NZ. Unfortunately, the drastic reduction in food calories available spelt starvation for many people in Africa and parts of Asia. World population peaked at 8 billion in 2040 and has been declining since.

After a decade of dike-building and other emergency measures, many cities in low-lying areas have been abandonded as rising seas reclaimed them. Much of coastal Forida and Louisiana are now underwater, as well as reclaimed (filled) land along both coasts. Temperatures have risen noticeably and there is no longer any argument about the effects of global warming. Fortunately, predictions of massive crop failures resulting from changes in the weather pattern have proven to be overblown. The main concern now is the continuing rise in ocean temperatures, and the effect this is having on marine life, as well as the predicted effect on currents.

Energy continues to be a top priority for world governments, as the current 40 mbd is predicted to continue falling in future years, coal production has plateaued in the US and is in decline elsewhere, and once-through use of uranium is stressing remaining reserves. Most reactors built in the last decade have been based on a new breeder design. Images of deprivation from less fortunate parts of the world have quelled opposition despite a small number of accidents. Research continues on nuclear fusion, but economic production of power still appears to be some decades away. Biotechnology has given new life to the idea of producing hydrocarbon fuels from sunlight, and for the past 20 years a growing number of plants have been producing liquid and gaseous fuels on non-arable land. The amounts are still a small percentage of total demand, but prices are competitive with increasingly scarce and expensive petroleum and NG, and the future looks good for this technology.

[I_Like_Plants]

OK I'm going to call something analogous to Godwin's Law, only my new law says a thread has gone beyond redemption when people start spewing raw C code.

[abelardlindsay]

Disclaimer: This is a science fiction storyline, not my actual political opinion/policy recommendation,etc. I'm just exploring a bizarre idea. (Besides, Fisher-Tropsch will give us at least 50 years for another techno-fix to save us before this level of desperation sets in).

So I've been reading along here on peak oil and people are talking about how the world is going to have a massive die-off, etc. 10s of millions of people are going to starve to death when the petroleum economy collapses, etc.

Wow, sounds really bleak. . So I'm going to get into my time machine and set the dial to 2050. !Zap! !Zap! Ok, guys I'm back and boy is the future a freaky place!

In 2050 the great techno fix of the first half of the 21st century, Fischer-Tropsch, which allowed us to continue functioning as a civilization is starting to experience output declines. Outside the countries of the world with major coal reserves: The U.S, Russia, China, India, Germany, South Africa, Brazil, Kazakstan, Poland and Australia many have already died of starvation. No technofixes have been found and many more are starting to starve, governments are collapsing and getting desperate and the world is slowly sliding into anarchy. People have decided that after 40 years of trying to fix the energy problem with our god given brains that human limitations are the problem and we're not going to get anywhere unless we somehow find some way to surpass them. Faced with the impending death of perhaps millions of citizens, governments in 2050 are pursuing technofix that would involve developing drugs or gene therapy to make people more intelligent, improve memory dramatically, improve learning dramatically, interface with computers more directly in order to improve the speed at which technological development would progress. Governments are pulling out all the regulatory stops and are taking significant medical risks in doing so.

The fascist government that emerged in several countries after the first mass famines, in a crash program to develop techno-fixes and dominate the world's remaining coal reserves before their civilizations totally collapse, are taking a more blunt approach by pursuing eugenics program. They are forbidding most reproduction except that of clones of famous scientists, hoping that they will be able to make the next breakthrough that helps them maintain their power and their government.

Unfortunately I got the budget time machine model which only lets me go 45 years into the future. I can't see any further into the future but I speculate if these programs are successful it will completely change the way that humanity sees itself and its history. It will be as big of a change as the discovery of evolution. If they fail and no technofixes magically appear than civilization will collapse back to midevil europe levels.

[Omnitir]

abelardlindsay - yeah, most of this thread is the same unoriginal bleak future, which is why I put some creative licence in my posts depicting a brighter possible future.

Here's another one:

“Honey I shrunk the human race.”

In 2012 the techno-fix is found: shrink ray technology. All humans are shrunk down to a couple of inches tall. Suddenly there is virtually an infinite supply of resources and plenty of room for expansion. The only real problems are rebuilding civilisation (operating old demolition/construction equipment is really hard with people only a few inches tall), and the issues of predators. There is initially wide-scale die-off, as people’s former pets now become our worst enemy. It takes several years of war, but we finally deal with the canine/feline menace.

[Antimatter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'a')belardlindsay - yeah, most of this thread is the same unoriginal bleak future, which is why I put some creative licence in my posts depicting a brighter possible future.

Here's another one:

“Honey I shrunk the human race.”

In 2012 the techno-fix is found: shrink ray technology. All humans are shrunk down to a couple of inches tall. Suddenly there is virtually an infinite supply of resources and plenty of room for expansion. The only real problems are rebuilding civilisation (operating old demolition/construction equipment is really hard with people only a few inches tall), and the issues of predators. There is initially wide-scale die-off, as people’s former pets now become our worst enemy. It takes several years of war, but we finally deal with the canine/feline menace.

[generikan]

[abelardlindsay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'a')belardlindsay - yeah, most of this thread is the same unoriginal bleak future, which is why I put some creative licence in my posts depicting a brighter possible future.

Here's another one:

“Honey I shrunk the human race.”

In 2012 the techno-fix is found: shrink ray technology. All humans are shrunk down to a couple of inches tall. Suddenly there is virtually an infinite supply of resources and plenty of room for expansion. The only real problems are rebuilding civilisation (operating old demolition/construction equipment is really hard with people only a few inches tall), and the issues of predators. There is initially wide-scale die-off, as people’s former pets now become our worst enemy. It takes several years of war, but we finally deal with the canine/feline menace.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'i') doubt we'd see 5.5 billion population reduction over the next 40 years, that would involve so many bodies that they'd be piling up in the streets.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'S')eeing that there are just as many opinions as there are people describe what a PO world will look like. Here's my prediction for the year 2050.

On the surface the world is a lot like today. People still live in the suburbs and commute in traffic plagued freeways in single occupancy vehicles burning gasoline. The airline industry still exists and truck drivers still make a profit even with diesel at $8/gallon. (year 2005 dollars) And those ridiculously annoying environmentalists are still complaining that people aren't taking public transit. Walmart still sells low quality (made in China) consumer goods. Globalization is alive and well.

But....

Almost every vehicle is a hybrid vehicle, especially trucks. Those commuter cars weigh less then 1000 pounds and have only a 3 gallon gas tank. Nuclear power is back in style. Nuclear powered cargo ships and even cruiseliners are the new thing. Using nuclear reactors to heat the tar sands of Alberta to extract oil is a mature technology. Every luxury that existed before PO is till available, like Starbucks coffee. However life in general is not as good. Just about everything is more expensive and people have less disposable income. B/c airtravel is so expensive it's not used as much. The "dirty dog" aka greyhound bus is the prefured method of domestic travel.

[ROCKMAN]

Interesting: didn't notice any prediction about the struggle between countries over dwindling resources such as fossil fuels and food. Especially given that many historians give resource competition as a significant factor that led to 100+ million deaths during the first half of the 20th century. But I'm sure many can't imagine that happening again. Neither did much of the world could in 1930.

[ralfy]

Perhaps the study mentioned in this article might help:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I')nteresting: didn't notice any prediction about the struggle between countries over dwindling resources such as fossil fuels and food. Especially given that many historians give resource competition as a significant factor that led to 100+ million deaths during the first half of the 20th century. But I'm sure many can't imagine that happening again. Neither did much of the world could in 1930.

[ROCKMAN]

T - So true. Just like so many folks said we would never get ourselves into "another Vietnam". And now we've spent $trillions of tax $'s and thousands of our military fighting another "enemy" as we try to "export democracy" to the ME. After all it has nothing to do with oil just as Vietnam was about the French stopping communism and not protecting resources in the region belonging to French companies.

At least the US govt has learned how to control photo ops, eh? No shots of the last US choppers lifting desperate people out of Baghdad as they had of the choppers lifting off the US embassy in Saigon. LOL. I forget: when we bugged out of Vietnam did we shout "Job done!" and declare victory?

[geopressure]

Was that sarcasm? Of course Iraq is about oil... Iraq has always been about oil... Saddam opted for higher oil prices & refused to develop the vast reserves in Kurdistan that the US wanted on the Market ASAP to keep prices down. When Saddam would not cooperate he was then tricked into invading Kuwait so that we could invade him... Meanwhile, offshore production increased, the deepwater frontier opened which made HUGE wells & all of the sudden the Kurdish reserves were no longer needed...

Half a decade later & they were needed once again, so came up with a BS excuse to invade again & we are still there today...