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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE US Economy (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 12:37:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')I can't wait for someone stupid enough to announce nuke planes.


"Here at Delta(tm), we want you to know that we care about keeping your airfares as affordable as possible. That's why we are implementing the new Boeing 787 Nukeliner(tm) into our fleets, running on clean burning, long lasting uranium. Of course, there will be no requisite upgrade to the food service fare, so enjoy that half-bag of pretzels and 3/4 can of Sprite.
Delta(tm) - We're with you all the way."

Kid on the ground: "Daddy, why is that plane glowing?" :-D
Last edited by emersonbiggins on Wed 10 Aug 2005, 12:42:19, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby nth » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 12:39:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Z', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')consumerism is bad.
it is what got us into this PO issue today.
but what will the world be like without it?
probably constant wars and such.
consumerism seems to pacify people.


Too much consumerism is bad.
Too much of anything is bad.


hrm... no.
Too much love is good.

Yeah, you are right. :P
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Unread postby emersonbiggins » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 12:45:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Z', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')consumerism is bad.
it is what got us into this PO issue today.
but what will the world be like without it?
probably constant wars and such.
consumerism seems to pacify people.


Too much consumerism is bad.
Too much of anything is bad.


Very true.
Extremism and gluttony of all kinds is the bane of our existence.
It's the 'kid in a candy store' logic that we never outgrow.
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Unread postby nth » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 12:46:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '
')
I don't know about that. Are we not the most warlike nation to ever exist on the face of the earth? We probably consume to forget about a reality that is increasingly bittersweet.


Nah, we do somewhat less fighting compare to the empires like GBR, Holy Roman Empire, Roman, Greek, etc.

Actually, I need to stop kidding myself. We do equivalent.
When is there ever a time when US armforces are not deploy on combat duty?
How about the British?
How about the French?

I can't think of it.
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Unread postby emersonbiggins » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 12:52:54

Nah, I don't even think the Cold War was relatively 'peaceful', because of all the proxy wars we were/are fighting.
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Unread postby nth » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 12:57:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')I can't wait for someone stupid enough to announce nuke planes.


"Here at Delta(tm), we want you to know that we care about keeping your airfares as affordable as possible. That's why we are implementing the new Boeing 787 Nukeliner(tm) into our fleets, running on clean burning, long lasting uranium. Of course, there will be no requisite upgrade to the food service fare, so enjoy that half-bag of pretzels and 3/4 can of Sprite.
Delta(tm) - We're with you all the way."

Kid on the ground: "Daddy, why is that plane glowing?" :-D


This belongs on the Simpsons!
With pretzels glowing and sprite glowing too.
Oh and the plane is owned by Burns!
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Unread postby emersonbiggins » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 13:01:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')I can't wait for someone stupid enough to announce nuke planes.


"Here at Delta(tm), we want you to know that we care about keeping your airfares as affordable as possible. That's why we are implementing the new Boeing 787 Nukeliner(tm) into our fleets, running on clean burning, long lasting uranium. Of course, there will be no requisite upgrade to the food service fare, so enjoy that half-bag of pretzels and 3/4 can of Sprite.
Delta(tm) - We're with you all the way."

Kid on the ground: "Daddy, why is that plane glowing?" :-D


This belongs on the Simpsons!
With pretzels glowing and sprite glowing too.
Oh and the plane is owned by Burns!


That's a great idea - a PO episode on The Simpsons. They've been hitting hard on some great issues, like "Sprawl-Mart" and Frank Gehry (tm)-brand architecture. The episode could be like a doomsday scenario of $200/barrel oil and all the chaos that envelops Springfield because of it.
It runs the risk of trivializing the issue, but the Wal-Mart episode never lost its satirical 'edge', so who knows?
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Unread postby tokyo_to_motueka » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 21:59:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tokyo_to_motueka', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')07,000 jobs were created in July.

Of the new jobs, 26,000 (about 13%) are tax-supported government jobs. That leaves 181,000 private sector jobs. Of these private sector jobs, 177,000, or 98%, are in the domestic service sector.

Here is the breakdown of the major categories:
• 30,000 food servers and bar tenders;
• 28,000 health care and social assistance:
• 12,000 real estate;
• 6,000 credit intermediation;
• 8,000 transit and ground passenger transportation;
• 50,000 retail trade; and
• 8,000 wholesale trade.

(There were 7,000 construction jobs, most of which were filled by Mexicans immigrants.)


nth,

pls forget about Paul Craig roberts.
pls explain the above stats.
seems to me the US is exporting all the good jobs. no? where are they?
Full Spectrum Disorder, by Stan Goff.
Just read it!
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Unread postby tokyo_to_motueka » Wed 10 Aug 2005, 22:55:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tokyo_to_motueka', 'w')hy would the Chinese manufacturing operations of bankrupt US companies not be cheap? the US companies' creditors will be forced to sell these assets off to recoup at least a fraction of their money.


Why would a company that has high tech knowledge of how to make equipments needed for manufactures sell it cheap to China?

i was never talking about US machine tool or factory equipment makers.
just plain old consumer goods manufacturers.
who have shifted all their manufacturing to China.
ever heard of Wal-Mart?
when the US consumer goes belly up, these companies are toast.
they will have to sell their Chinese assets for a song (or more likely their creditors will).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'N')o matter how bad the economic climate is in the US. US businesses still have tremendous purchasing powers. Why is that? Simply look at what companies are successfully doing business in China. China's economic rise is making millions of dollars for US and European firms.

making money from cheap manufacturing operations that sell goods to Europe/Japan/US.
Chinese consumers make up a small fraction of their markets.
a lot of these factories are in export-only zones which cannot sell into the Chinese market.
if the US economy goes down the toilet, these companies will be rescued by consumers where?
China?
India?
do you know how small a share of the Chinese economy consumption is?
do you have any clue?
Morgan Stanley
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')n 2004, household consumption fell to a record low of 42% of Chinese GDP — the smallest consumption share of any major economy in the world.

and in the US?
Mastercard
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n 2003, household consumption accounted for 66.1% of GDP in the US
Full Spectrum Disorder, by Stan Goff.
Just read it!
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Major cracks in the US economy

Unread postby Eli » Tue 27 Sep 2005, 16:01:07

A new report out today shows that new home sales took a 10% decline in sales while prices continued to rise for the homes.

Also consumer confidence is way down as well.


There is some good news however in the article about home sales decline a Realtor group says that new home sales actually rose by 2% in August. I am sure they are being completely unbiased in there reporting.

2 cracks

Realtors say 2% increase in home sales
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Re: Major cracks in the US economy

Unread postby rogerhb » Tue 27 Sep 2005, 17:20:58

Why is it that first time buyers being priced out of the market without insane borrowing schemes is counted by economists as good news?
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Re: Major cracks in the US economy

Unread postby MicroHydro » Tue 27 Sep 2005, 21:57:56

Burn baby burn :twisted:
"The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
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Re: Major cracks in the US economy

Unread postby EnemyCombatant » Wed 28 Sep 2005, 08:44:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he national median home price rose to $220,000, up 15.8 percent from a year ago, the report showed. That was the largest annual increase in prices since July 1979.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Stubbornly low mortgage rates have helped sustain the rally in housing, creating robust demand that has driven prices up by double-digit percentages in some areas and led some analysts to worry that the market was a bubble set to burst.



It's not just the interest rates, but the easy lending practices. In addition, too many are getting adjustable rate mortgages. Adjustable rates are not a problem if this is a short term investment. But if housing is over-valued, then you won't be able to sell short term.


BTW, an excellent peak oil job is being a RE investor.
Now why didn't I take the blue pill.
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Re: Major cracks in the US economy

Unread postby pup55 » Wed 28 Sep 2005, 08:54:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he seasonally adjusted percentage of credit card accounts 30 or more days past due rose in the April-to-June quarter to 4.81 percent. That followed a delinquency rate of 4.76 percent in the first quarter and was the highest since the association began collecting this information in 1973.


yahoo news

note: most of the big increase in fuel prices did not hit until the third quarter (July-September) so this number is sure to get worse.
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Re: Major cracks in the US economy

Unread postby kenohio » Wed 28 Sep 2005, 09:49:20

I just read where consumer credit card delinquencies in the US have hit an a high that hasn't been seen since the 70's. They are blaming it on high gas prices and low savings rates giving consumers little wiggle room.
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Re: Major cracks in the US economy

Unread postby Eli » Wed 28 Sep 2005, 10:36:24

I understand and appreciate eternal optimists. But there is a good reason that every recession we have ever had has been proceeded by a rise in energy costs.

If we head over three bucks a gallon again which seems assured what is that going to do to consumer confidence?

And a company hitting an all time high on home sales is called a peak. It would not be time to invest in said company to make money you have to get in early not late.


The credit card thing is telling. the lowest consumer confidence in 15 years and the highest default rate since the 70's on credit cards and oil prices spiking like the...... wait for it the 70's. Time for old peanut head to run again and time to stock up on Billy beer.
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Re: Major cracks in the US economy

Unread postby tokyo_to_motueka » Wed 28 Sep 2005, 11:19:35

1 in 20 credit cards overdue in the APR-JUN quarter.
well before petrol prices really took off.

wait till winter heating costs--double to triple last year's--start to kick in.
this is going to get very ugly between now and next March.

another 50 basis points shovelled on by the FED, and the carry-trade trillion dollar scam is all over too.

Ouch!
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Re: Major cracks in the US economy

Unread postby Eli » Wed 28 Sep 2005, 12:13:22

I think what she is referring to is that if you walked up and asked the man on the street if they though gas was ever going to go below 2.00 a gallon again they would say no.
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Re: Major cracks in the US economy

Unread postby Kingcoal » Wed 28 Sep 2005, 12:24:27

I would say the real estate is still a good investment. You have to remember that it's not the real estate that is appreciating; it's your money that is depreciating. In order for prices to come down, the money supply needs to deflate (appreciate.) This happened during the early Great Depression, after FDR came to power, he inflated the money supply to attempt to counteract it. Today, we are in virgin territory as never has there been so many dollars floating around the world. Much talk as centered on when these dollars will come home to roost. If this happens, we will see a situation similar to pre WW2 Germany. Asset holders would be in a good position, cash holders would be in a very bad position. Some sort of rebalancing act would be needed. Possibly sky high real estate taxes?
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