[Leanan]

June is usually a slow month for heating oil, but not this time:

http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/02/markets/oil/index.htm

[FrankRichards]

Add meteorologists to geologists on the list of folks economists don't listen to.

Northeastern North America just had its second in a row heating season with a late fall and then a late spring. So a bunch of oil that wasn't burned in December got burned in May. Any trader who watched the Weather Channel instead of Financial News Network could have seen this coming and made a bundle.

(FWIW, the wet weather kept loggers out of the New England woods too, so expect firewood prices to rise even more this year.)

[frankthetank]

Yup...but thankfully models are now showing plenty of heat moving into the NE through the next 7 days atleast.

[Raxozanne]

A bull run on the sweet crude was averted by higher than expected stockpile gains.

[Leanan]

The CNN article claimed people were confused by the unexpected June demand. Some traders are speculating that it's the airlines to blame. They are locking in prices by buying long-term contracts for jet fuel.

If so, the fact that they want to "lock in" $50 a barrel tells its own story...

[SidneyTawl]

Or LOL it was this

http://somalinet.com/news/world/Somalia/506

it snowed in somalia first time ever. And not a little dusting it seems either.

probably not the reason, but syncronicity is fun

[Tyler_JC]

It was 44 degrees last week. It is freakin' freezing up here in the North East. May is supposed to be the month where no heating or A/C is used. Instead it felt like March and everyone kept the heat on.

Now it's June and hot. May never happened. We are going straight from heat to A/C. That's bound to increase fuel consumption somewhat.

[basil_hayden]

Howdy -

Did a search and couldn't find a thing, so here goes.

I think it's important to put this peak oil knowledge to use in some way, not gold or futures and certainly not by having a philosophical disagreement between cornucopians and doomers, or worse yet - doomer cornucopians! Face it - we'll use up what we have long before we find something else to oxidize.

I got a home heating oil contract offer in the mail yesterday from my oil delivery company. I live in Connecticut, Northeast USA, and even at these prices, oil is for a me a far better alternative to spending the next month or so chopping firewood. So you have an idea of my approach here. I've always blown these off for the past 15 years, some years I win, some years they win.

Here's the deal, just for others to compare:

I can estimate my usage from October through March (about 500 gallons I'd guess) and pay 100% up front and get oil for 2.249 per gallon or pay 25% up front and the rest in 10 monthly payments for 2.299 per month.

The nickel difference seems to be insignificant to me, the real issue, that they can't guarantee, is that I'll get 500 gallons of heating oil as I need it this winter. In other words, I don't want to pay then find out it isn't there when my tank is empty.

Looking at khebab's and friends prediction curves (nice work!) it seems like locking in prices now is a no-brainer.

[Leanan]

One thing to keep in mind: there have been increasing problems with oil delivery services not holding up their end of a long-term contract. Some of them are fly-by-night operations that never intended to deliver the oil. Some just got in over their heads. If they promise oil at a certain price, and their costs rise too much, they are forced into bankruptcy.

Personally, I think smart home heating oil companies wouldn't be offering long term contracts at all in the current market.

[MrPC]

If you pay on a credit card and they fail to deliver, can you not dispute the transaction and get your money back? (And if they do deliver, hold the firewood you'll spend the next month chopping over til the following year or flog it off to someone that's run out?)

[Leanan]

You know, I'm not sure. I think it depends on the credit card. Some credit cards won't do subscriptions, because of the chargeback issue. I believe Discover will, but not MC and Visa.

[BabyPeanut]

My oil furnace is going to be 30 years old in April. I am in the process of switching to GHP. Your circumstances might be different, do your own research. Here's a good place to start:

http://energysavers.gov/

[Olaf]

I don't know about everyone else, but when heating oil costs nearly double over three heating seasons, it is time to get worried.

2003 - $1.20/gallon here
2004 - $1.60/gallon
2005 - $2.30/gallon

Olaf

[gego]

Incomes have not and will not keep pace with these increased costs, so you can see how the dieoff will develop. Eventually families will not have enough income to pay for all the increased costs associated with declining energy production, and will be forced to do without. Doing without will ultimately have a deleterious effect on survival and the grave yards will start to fill up until population is down to a sustainable level given the reduced resource base.

There will be many invisible deaths occuring behing closed doors, first with the elderly and poor, but increasingly with the former middle class. But don't worry about the government people, cause they will take enough to keep themselves safe until even they find it difficult to make it.

[Olaf]

I was speaking with a co-worker of mine about this and how it affects fixed income elderly especially. Apparently certain low income brackets of elderly receive a stipend to subsidize their fuel expenses (not sure if state or federal program). He indicated to me that this program had remained at a constant funding level with everyone getting the same amount over the last few years, despite the changes in fuel cost. as indicated previously, this will greatly impact the elderly earlier than some others.


Olaf

[bruin]

Many will most likely move as well to warmer areas.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bruin', 'I')ncomes have not and will not keep pace with these increased costs, so you can see how the dieoff will develop. Eventually families will not have enough income to pay for all the increased costs associated with declining energy production, and will be forced to do without. Doing without will ultimately have a deleterious effect on survival and the grave yards will start to fill up until population is down to a sustainable level given the reduced resource base.

There will be many invisible deaths occuring behing closed doors, first with the elderly and poor, but increasingly with the former middle class. But don't worry about the government people, cause they will take enough to keep themselves safe until even they find it difficult to make it.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bruin', 'M')any will most likely move as well to warmer areas.

[falser]

For as long as I can remember natural gas heating has been significantly cheaper than electric. Has this come into alignment now? I happen to be in an apartment with electric heat, will I be spared the excess cost this winter?

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('falser', 'F')or as long as I can remember natural gas heating has been significantly cheaper than electric. Has this come into alignment now? I happen to be in an apartment with electric heat, will I be spared the excess cost this winter?