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THE US Economy (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Unread postby jimmydean » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 18:28:12

In north america, since cash is cheap for now, I think everyone is betting on the economy improving. As long as people can keep borrowing cheap and spending we can continue to keep ignoring the problems.

Granted services industry has grown but can it really make up for outsourcing of existing manufacturing and white collar work? If you don't believe that it can at some point real consumer spending must fall due to unemployment and lower wages regardless of how much we can borrow. We will have people chasing fewer lower wage jobs ; a deflationary environment.

I don't see any indication that new job creation of similar wages is equal to jobs lost.

Globalization must result in the increasing of prosperity of the hot outsource spots and a lowering in prosperity from where the jobs were taken from unless new job creation of equal wages = lost jobs. That $20/hour that an American worker made in a manufacturing plant is now 0.50c/hour job of an asia pacific worker with the rest of the profit being pocketed by the manufacturers and/or middlemen delivering the product to the consumers.

Adios to middle class north america.
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Unread postby jimmydean » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 18:34:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'T')his building of plants overseas is accelerating!!!

What I like is looking at shirts that say made in China and seeing a price tag of $35 8)


GG

I find it alarming that it's almost impossible to find "made in U.S.A" or "made in Canada" no matter what store I go to these days.

Building plants overseas = accelerating corporate profits (see Belch's post) especially if imports manage to maintain quality levels of typical north american made goods there is no reason to charge less ... JUST MAKE MORE MARGIN :)
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Unread postby BabyPeanut » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 21:38:50

http://www.bls.gov/schedule/archives/wkyeng_nr.htm

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/news.release/Hist ... 62005.news
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '===============================================================================================================
Table 6. Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by selected characteristics, annual averages


Number of workers Median weekly earnings
(in thousands)


Characteristic In current dollars In constant (1982)
dollars
2003 2004

2003 2004 2003 2004

SEX AND AGE

Total, 16 years and over................... 100,302 101,224 $620 $638 $325 $326
')

most recent quarter shows your money becoming worthless very fast:

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/news.release/Hist ... 02005.news

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '===============================================================================================================
Table 1. Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by selected characteristics, quarterly averages, not seasonally adjusted


Number of workers Median weekly earnings
(in thousands)


Characteristic In current dollars In constant (1982)
dollars
II II
2004 2005
II II II II
2004 2005 2004 2005

SEX AND AGE

Total, 16 years and over................... 101,300 103,332 $639 $643 $326 $319')
2005 dollars adjusted in 1982 show the value of money falling fast.
Last edited by BabyPeanut on Mon 08 Aug 2005, 13:33:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby cube » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 22:43:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jimmydean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'T')his building of plants overseas is accelerating!!!

What I like is looking at shirts that say made in China and seeing a price tag of $35 8)


GG

I find it alarming that it's almost impossible to find "made in U.S.A" or "made in Canada" no matter what store I go to these days.
..........
It actually gets more "interesting". Even Products that are officially "made in America" are not necessarily completely American. For example the smoothbore cannon of the M1A1 tank (America's main battle tank) was developed by the Germans and the composite armor was a knock off from a British design. You know things are getting pretty bad when you have to rely on other nations to develope your military weapons. Maybe one day the Chinese will also get a contract? :-D
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more like economic change

Unread postby Cool Hand Linc » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 23:15:56

I see it, JimmyDean.

It is more like a change. Some areas are slowing. Some are moving and evolving.

When jobs go over seas. Buying power here decreases. Buying power over seas increases. So here we are having a recession of sorts.

working class wages are becoming lower. I don't have data on this but when I look in the paper and see what is being offered for starting wages. It seems they are lower.

My wages haven't increased at the rate of inflation for 8 years. 1 or 2 % less each year. Cost of goods keeps going up. Everything!
Peace out!

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Unread postby jtmorgan61 » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 23:23:43

Britain's growth is mostly slowing down because their housing bubble popped. The central bank is finally starting to lower interest rates now that they are satisfied. It will be interesting to see if the economy picks back up in response.

In the developed world, every country is consistently growing at under 4%. The high achievers are the US and Australia, who average over 3%. The euro area is growing more like 1%.

Wages aren't rising in the U.S. because outsourcing or the threat of outsourcing is keeping them depressed. It will take an awful long time until chinese labor wages rise up to the point that it no longer makes sense to manufacture in China.

It will be interesting indeed to see what happens when the US housing bubble pops...
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Unread postby jdmartin » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 23:42:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd they are going to be building a new factory over in China to make some of the products we are making here in the US.


One of the hilarious features of our new economy (I am being facetious in my use of "hilarious") is the increased use of today's employees to build plants and train replacements so that they can be fired tomorrow. A local acquaintance of mine who works at Eastman was sent to Malaysia to help them build a chemical plant that woud eliminate a bunch of local jobs. I have heard local stories of people receiving notice they will be 'downsized' in 3 months, and the company bringing in their replacement for training before they leave.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ages aren't rising in the U.S. because outsourcing or the threat of outsourcing is keeping them depressed. It will take an awful long time until chinese labor wages rise up to the point that it no longer makes sense to manufacture in China.


This is unlikely to happen in our lifetimes. Either the global economy will be in shambles by that point or the Chinese will continue to work for nothing. In a land grossly overpopulated and highly dependent upon the government, with a historically high tolerance for pain and an excellent work ethic, it is likely that the Chinese will just work for whatever they can get. The Chinese empires enjoyed thousands of years of peace without internal conflict, so I find it unlikely that a denial of Tommy Hilfigers will cause a revolution. People will simply drop back to Faded Glory or the other Box-store brands.
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Unread postby MagnoliaFan » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 02:53:40

Maybe these guys can be retrained to clean swimming pools? (link to article)

A job is a job is a job. It seems lately that the words "nationalist" and "protectionist" have become dirty words... why? Why should the US government allow jobs to go out of its country in the name of globalization?

“Free Markets” = “Globalism” = “Multiculturalism” = Socialism = Third World Hellhole = One World Government = Global Slave Plantation = Genocide =You live out of a station wagon and your kids eat spam for the rest of their lives if they are lucky.

I pray TSHTF will come fast and hard, in the hopes that the NWO scumbag traitors will be trampled to death by the teeming masses that they pretend to represwent. Instead, what is happening now is the classic frog being slowly boiled to death scenario.

Nobody notices that they're getting screwed up the a**.
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Unread postby jimmydean » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 12:48:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MagnoliaFan', '[')url=http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-08-04T175819Z_01_N04631538_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-BIZECONOMY-MANUFACTURING-DC.XML]Maybe these guys can be retrained to clean swimming pools? (link to article)[/url]

A job is a job is a job. It seems lately that the words "nationalist" and "protectionist" have become dirty words... why? Why should the US government allow jobs to go out of its country in the name of globalization?

“Free Markets” = “Globalism” = “Multiculturalism” = Socialism = Third World Hellhole = One World Government = Global Slave Plantation = Genocide =You live out of a station wagon and your kids eat spam for the rest of their lives if they are lucky.

I pray TSHTF will come fast and hard, in the hopes that the NWO scumbag traitors will be trampled to death by the teeming masses that they pretend to represwent. Instead, what is happening now is the classic frog being slowly boiled to death scenario.

Nobody notices that they're getting screwed up the a**.



Seems corporations control the government agenda these days.

From a western perspective globalization clearly gives future wage leverage and wealth to the wealthy and corporations that take advantage of offshoring. This is just the beginning and we are all asleep at the wheel as it unfolds. What happens when the thousands of companies like AmericanEmpire's migrate manufacturing to China over the next 10 years. GM just announced that it will be buying auto parts from India now; $1B dollar deal initially that I'm sure will grow.

Wealth being transferred overseas to the "new" middle class of these countries as well as the pockets of corporations and wealthy.
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Unread postby BabyPeanut » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 13:37:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', 'I')t will be interesting indeed to see what happens when the US housing bubble pops...

There's a lot of weath left in the US and not a lot of places to invest in. The housing prices are being kept high because the weath is being funneled into homes. Reductions in value may not take the form of a sudden decline across the board. There might be something more gradual except for some regions.
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Unread postby anthem » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 14:57:35

Speaking of the housing bubble popping:

San Diego Housing Market Slowdown
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Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 15:12:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MagnoliaFan', '')Free Markets” = “Globalism” = “Multiculturalism” = Socialism = Third World Hellhole = One World Government


No way, this is capitalism at its finest. I cannot believe that you'd equate socialism with what's going on all over the world. Clearly, globalization is not an altruistic movement by the "enlightened" to spread equal prosperity across the globe, but, rather, corporations finding the cheapest possible labor pools in order to maximize profits. And, isn't that what capitalism is all about? :roll:
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Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 15:16:20

Yep electricians, plumbers, carpenters, landscapers, Home Depot, Lowe's, Orchard Supply Hardware, paint co's, lumber co's etc are all doing great - until the real estate bubble pops and pop it will. Not if, when.

I was talking to a gal who works at a real estate office, she says places (here in the bay area) are getting "less multiple offers" now, but "starter" places are still doing well - then she went on to describe a deal on a starter place that was in the $700k range! That's a starter!?!?!?!
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Unread postby cube » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 15:20:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MagnoliaFan', '.')............
A job is a job is a job. It seems lately that the words "nationalist" and "protectionist" have become dirty words... why? Why should the US government allow jobs to go out of its country in the name of globalization?
..............
Do you suggest the US enact laws to prevent this from happening? What about the rights of individuals? Lets assume I have a steel mill in the US but it's not very competitive. Maybe I can make more money if I move my operations to South Korea to take advantage of the cheaper labor. What right does the US government have to dictate what I can and can't do with my money?

Granted it's doubtful that I or anyone else on this board will ever have that type of money within our lifetime, but you cannot be a promoter of freedom unless you give it to everybody. And besides you're travelling down a very slippery road. If you give the government the power to decide what someone else can or cannot do with their money then what's to keep the government from doing the same to YOU?
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Unread postby JoeW » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 15:22:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MagnoliaFan', '')Free Markets” = “Globalism” = “Multiculturalism” = Socialism = Third World Hellhole = One World Government


No way, this is capitalism at its finest. I cannot believe that you'd equate socialism with what's going on all over the world. Clearly, globalization is not an altruistic movement by the "enlightened" to spread equal prosperity across the globe, but, rather, corporations finding the cheapest possible labor pools in order to maximize profits. And, isn't that what capitalism is all about? :roll:


Roger that. EB has it right, that this is the capitalist system, where the only winners are those with the capital, while the rest of society is there to feed from the scraps off of the capitalists' tables. If you are born into poverty, the deck is stacked against you. If you are born into wealth, your every indulgent fantasy will be realized at the expense of the peasants.
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Unread postby Kez » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 15:23:44

Does anyone have the current figures for service vs manufacturing in this country? In the 80's, I remember reading the Economist magazine and it said the U.S. at that time was 70% service, 30% manufacturing.

That means most people earn their money from service, or they buy junk from overseas and put it together, and sell it again, they don't actually make anything. Since I, too, rarely see anything 'Made in the USA', I can only guess the ratio is around 85% - 15%.
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Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 15:24:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jimmydean', '
')Wealth being transferred overseas to the "new" middle class of these countries as well as the pockets of corporations and wealthy.


Oh, hell no, the "middle class" you are referring to has yet to acquire wonderful things such as labor protections and environmental regulations, and as soon as those things come down the pike, then *BOOM*, offshore to country X, where no such conditions exist.

Your anger towards the "wealth transfer" would perhaps be better focused on the corporations causing it, and the governments that condone this behavior. You can't blame people for working there.

The strange aspect of 'globalization' is that, like 'democracy', it can't be foisted upon an unsuspecting country without great ramifications for the future. The capital markets of developing nations must be at least partially developed from within, in order to secure a nation's economic future. Foreign capital that can be invested at will (in, say, India), can be easily removed at will, as well.
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Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 15:33:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MagnoliaFan', '.')............
A job is a job is a job. It seems lately that the words "nationalist" and "protectionist" have become dirty words... why? Why should the US government allow jobs to go out of its country in the name of globalization?
..............
Do you suggest the US enact laws to prevent this from happening? What about the rights of individuals? Lets assume I have a steel mill in the US but it's not very competitive. Maybe I can make more money if I move my operations to South Korea to take advantage of the cheaper labor. What right does the US government have to dictate what I can and can't do with my money?

Granted it's doubtful that I or anyone else on this board will ever have that type of money within our lifetime, but you cannot be a promoter of freedom unless you give it to everybody. And besides you're travelling down a very slippery road. If you give the government the power to decide what someone else can or cannot do with their money then what's to keep the government from doing the same to YOU?


I love this argument. Back to the meatpacking plants in 1920's Chicago we go. The problem with 'outsourcing' labor is that while you suggest that you're spreading "freedom", this is not your primary motive. Profit, if you're a good capitalist, is your motive. If anything, ANYTHING, gets in the way of that profit (development of labor protections, environmental protections, higher standard of living, etc.), then you are most likely going to *clock out* of that country, leaving it worse off than you found it because of its newly found dependence on foreign investment. This is simply a 'race to the bottom', in order to find the cheapest labor pools possible. That you've found a way to wrap up your argument in the visage of "spreading freedom," you are doing your Neocon brothers in the White House proud.

Real economies develop from within.
Last edited by emersonbiggins on Mon 08 Aug 2005, 15:45:42, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby nth » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 15:45:03

There is a lot of misconceptions about China here that I want to clear up.

China does not have a peaceful history. Internal rebellions happen a lot! Only the successful ones led to dynastic changes. Almost everytime a drought occurrs- a rebellion occurrs. Success or not is another matter.

Even the past 10 years, China has seen many revolts and security personnels had to be sent to squashed the riots. They follow that up with increase security and increase aid- a carrot and a stick approach.

Chinese people do not accept low wages. Wage increases in China is growing faster than India. Companies in China had to relocate or they bus people from rural areas to keep wages down. This will only continue for so long before you runout of people who are willing to work for low wages. Business in China are having problems finding low wages. The last five years they had to resort to hiring single women in low wage areas. Men already priced out of the labor market. Chinese managers are already higher paid than India. Low wage jobs have high turnovers- making managing these businesses very difficult.

Chinese labor market is not a blackhole that sucks all the jobs of the world. China is competing well today not because of low wages- India and other third world countries can outcompete China, but China is winning by implementing the world's most advanced automation they are allowed to buy. They can built US equivalent factories if US allows them to. Other third world countries cannot afford to purchase these factories to compete against China. Why China has the money because Western businesses think they can sell it to Chinese market after saturating Western markets. This was proven true after the internet bubble where the Chinese domestic market took off.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

For people who want to protect US jobs, just remember what trigger Great Depression and WW2. Back then US foreign trade was such a small part of our economy, yet cutting off from trade caused the Depression. Now with more of our economy dependent on trade, cutting it off will cause a worse scenario. Isolation simply doesn't work. Since 1880's US industrialization needs foreign trade. You can see evidence of all the economic crashes US went through and see how foreign trade decline prior to the crashes.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

cube,

China already supplies US armforces.
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Unread postby emersonbiggins » Mon 08 Aug 2005, 16:04:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '
')
For people who want to protect US jobs, just remember what trigger Great Depression and WW2. Back then US foreign trade was such a small part of our economy, yet cutting off from trade caused the Depression. Now with more of our economy dependent on trade, cutting it off will cause a worse scenario. Isolation simply doesn't work. Since 1880's US industrialization needs foreign trade. You can see evidence of all the economic crashes US went through and see how foreign trade decline prior to the crashes.


You're absolutely right that isolationism won't work now, since the U.S. has offshored any meaningful contribution to the world economy and replaced it with the so called "orgy of suburbia/service economy" sham. It's unfortunate that we've done so, because PO is right around the corner and it absolutely hates globalisation. So much so, in fact, that the 'global' economy will be impossible to maintain...
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