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PeakOil is You

THE US Economy (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Printing paper money bad for economy?

Postby nth » Wed 08 Jun 2005, 18:15:34

There are quite a few people who believe US is going to fall into a hyper inflation trap because it is no longer on the gold standard, so printing paper money beyond what the money is worth.

First, why does linking the money to gold actually substantiates the money's worth?

I know the answer to this, but the real answer is simply gold is valuable because people like the it and that it is rare metal, thus people can be sure its value will not drop from too much supply. Unlike diamonds which is not very rare and has its value artificially inflated by a diamond cartel DeBeer.

Second, if money is tied to gold, then it just means US cannot print too much. If money is scarce, but productivity is high and goods are plentiful, what actually will happen? Deflation will occur?

Third, how do you combat hyper inflation?
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Postby ubercrap » Wed 08 Jun 2005, 19:04:02

I don't know, but from what I understand, hyper-inflation in the past may have been done on at least partially on purpose? What is worrisome is the amount of dollars the rest of the world is holding- both governments as well as foreign banking. If everyone started dumping dollars for some reason, I'm thinking that alone would be enough to create incredible inflation. As for the ultimate logic of fiat currency, I'm not sure. Seems in the long run it must fail at some point.
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Postby nth » Wed 08 Jun 2005, 19:11:49

hrm... US can issue new currency... forcing all those foreign holders to cash in. By restricting buying power of USD, inflation can be mitigated, but comes with significant costs.
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Postby ubercrap » Wed 08 Jun 2005, 19:37:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'h')rm... US can issue new currency... forcing all those foreign holders to cash in. By restricting buying power of USD, inflation can be mitigated, but comes with significant costs.


You mean like printing/creating and entirely new precious metals backed currency ahead of time and basically invalidating the dollar? Interesting.
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Postby aldente » Wed 08 Jun 2005, 22:17:36

I posted these excerps in the past and do so again now since they fit perfectly in this thread:

By May 1971 the drain of U.S. Federal Reserve gold had become alarming, and even the Bank of England joined the French in demanding U.S. gold for their dollars. That was the point where rather than risk a collapse of the gold reserves of the United States, the Nixon Administration opted to abandon gold entirely, going to a system of floating currencies in August 1971. The break with gold opened the door to an entirely new phase of the American Century. In this new phase, control over monetary policy was, in effect, privatized, with large international banks such as Citibank, Chase Manhattan or Barclays Bank assuming the role that central banks had in a gold system, but entirely without gold. ‘Market forces’ now could determine the dollar. And they did with a vengeance.

Beginning the mid-1970’s the American Century system of global economic dominance underwent a dramatic change. An Anglo-American oil shock suddenly created enormous demand for the floating dollar. Oil importing countries from Germany to Argentina to Japan, all were faced with how to export in dollars to pay their expensive new oil import bills. OPEC oil countries were flooded with new oil dollars. A major share of these oil dollars came to London and New York banks where a new process was instituted. Henry Kissinger termed it, ‘recycling petrodollars’. The recycling strategy was discussed already in May 1971 at the Bilderberger meeting in Saltsjoebaden, Sweden. It was presented by American members of Bilderberg, as detailed in the book "A Century of War.

Here the full article:
William Engdahl


And here the book which I can highly recommend:
A Century of WarImage
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Postby nth » Thu 09 Jun 2005, 13:14:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercrap', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'h')rm... US can issue new currency... forcing all those foreign holders to cash in. By restricting buying power of USD, inflation can be mitigated, but comes with significant costs.


You mean like printing/creating and entirely new precious metals backed currency ahead of time and basically invalidating the dollar? Interesting.


That has been done in the 20th century when currencies went into hyper inflation.
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Postby ubercrap » Thu 09 Jun 2005, 16:35:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercrap', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'h')rm... US can issue new currency... forcing all those foreign holders to cash in. By restricting buying power of USD, inflation can be mitigated, but comes with significant costs.


You mean like printing/creating and entirely new precious metals backed currency ahead of time and basically invalidating the dollar? Interesting.


That has been done in the 20th century when currencies went into hyper inflation.


I thought they created a new currency after hyperinflation.
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Postby nth » Thu 09 Jun 2005, 20:53:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercrap', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercrap', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'h')rm... US can issue new currency... forcing all those foreign holders to cash in. By restricting buying power of USD, inflation can be mitigated, but comes with significant costs.


You mean like printing/creating and entirely new precious metals backed currency ahead of time and basically invalidating the dollar? Interesting.


That has been done in the 20th century when currencies went into hyper inflation.


I thought they created a new currency after hyperinflation.


Nope, they use new currency to battle inflation. Once you start using the new currency, there will be reduced inflation. You get a fresh start, so depending on how much new money you print- inflation will go up or down.
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Postby sklump » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 07:57:31

Whether the currency is gold-backed has little to do with it: it's scarcity that matters. Backing it against gold protects against human frailty and the desire to create ever more of it.

Here's a shot off the top of my head: match up against decreasing energy input, we should go to a PLUTONIUM-backed currency, or something that decays about 3% per year ...
As Canadian as ... possible, under the circumstances
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Postby nth » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 13:46:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sklump', 'W')hether the currency is gold-backed has little to do with it: it's scarcity that matters. Backing it against gold protects against human frailty and the desire to create ever more of it.

Here's a shot off the top of my head: match up against decreasing energy input, we should go to a PLUTONIUM-backed currency, or something that decays about 3% per year ...


Yeah, you figure it out.
Advocating for reduce money supply is correct.
Arguing for gold back currency doesn't make sense. Gold is not a correct measurement of currency value.
Last edited by nth on Fri 10 Jun 2005, 15:20:55, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 10 Jun 2005, 14:02:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sklump', '
')we should go to a PLUTONIUM-backed currency, or something that decays about 3% per year ...
:lol: plutonium-laced currency anyone? Didn't the Europeans of the Medieval times discover the economic benefits of megadeath? Too many superfluous people? bump off a big fraction and presto! problem solved. Sklump, is that the meaning of those rays coming off of the skull of your avatar?
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Economic slowdown starting imho

Postby jimmydean » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 13:23:56

Is the unemployment numbers going down in the U.S. simply because more people are working part-time lower wage jobs? I'm really curious what the number would be for the average yearly salary across all jobs in the U.S. say over the past 5 years, then examine that same number for each percentile... I'm sure it's edged down significantly especially if we filter out the top 10%.

The past 3 weeks after meeting with friends in various professions the only thing that I can say is booming is trade areas (i.e. electrical,carpenter etc.).

Almost every other profession area seems flat and future growth/outlook is looking bleak. I can say for IT at least that with the outsourcing craze that real wages in IT have gone down steadily the past 5 years.

After attending a family BBQ yesterday I was quite shocked at how uninformed the average person is in terms of economy especially the fragility of said economy in terms of oil price affect.

Anyone else notice a slowdown trend or just me ? :)

Guess it's time for me to get certified as an electrician ;)
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Postby AmericanEmpire » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 13:29:36

Nope, its not just you noticing.

At the last quarterly meeting we had where I work they were talking about how growth of sales had been slowing down since 2000. The companies sales have grown but not at the rate they had been accustomed too.

I wonder why that is. :roll:
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Postby shady28 » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 13:34:45

I haven't noticed a slowing from direct observation. However, the retail sector got hit pretty hard last month. Sales didn't decline, but they missed forecast growth by a wide margin.

Meanwhile, Britain looks like its already started to implode. Business section headlines from The Guardian :

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/

"Bankruptcies hit highest level since 1960
Credit card companies under fire as new figures show record numbers of people going bankrupt as a result of the country's growing mountain of debt.
Barclaycard cuts credit limits as debts rise
More on credit and debt

House price growth at a nine-year low
House price growth fell to a nine-year low last month, said the Halifax, the latest proof that Britain's lengthy property boom is running out of steam.
Special report: house prices"


Last but definitely not least :
"
House prices will fall this year, says mortgage body

Rupert Jones
Thursday August 4, 2005
The Guardian

The body representing Britain's mortgage lenders has cut its forecasts for house price growth and now believes property values will fall 2% this year."

http://money.guardian.co.uk/houseprices ... 14,00.html
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Postby jimmydean » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 13:40:57

I wonder if that's about to happen in the U.S. with private debt at record levels due mainly to the housing boom and easy access to credit.

AmericanEmpire -- what industry is your company in if you don't mind me asking?

There has been a huge shift the past 10 years to predominantly a services based economy here in North America. I wonder what all those unionized factory workers have migrated to job wise as corporate america shifts factory production east? Walmart?
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Postby AmericanEmpire » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 13:52:08

One that doesn't have much future I'm afraid. But I'm not sure how many companies will survive the post peak collapse.

We make different kinds of electrical heaters and sensors for industrial, aviation, fast food, medical and those kinds of things.
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Postby AmericanEmpire » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 14:00:42

And they are going to be building a new factory over in China to make some of the products we are making here in the US.
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Postby americandream » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 17:57:00

What do you reckon's goin on...everyone's spendin like there's no tomorrow and the proverbial status ladder still seems intact.
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Postby shakespear1 » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 18:08:16

This building of plants overseas is accelerating!!!

What I like is looking at shirts that say made in China and seeing a price tag of $35 8)
Men argue, nature acts !
Voltaire

"...In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation."

Alan Greenspan
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Postby Blech » Sun 07 Aug 2005, 18:15:09

I think it's been slow ever since 2000. In my work, engineering related, it certainly has been.

Let's take a look at the rest of the economy. Retail sales have been kept up, as Americans have been doing their patriotic duty to shop at Wallmart. Durable goods, cars, they have been going strong too for the same reason. But if you look at corporate spending, it's been bad since 2000.

Look at the amount of cash corporations have been hoarding, it's huge. The job numbers have been poor, so instead of spending they are saving. For what? A clear turn around I believe, which certainly hasn't happened yet.

Real estate has obviously been hot, and has propped the numbers in the last year or two. The post 1995 revised CPI has shown moderate inflation, but ask yourself how that can make sense when the cost of a house has doubled, and the cost of energy (at least in my area) has nearly doubled. So what can we conclude?

Pre 1995 CPI calculation shows we are at around 8% inflation, corporations are hoarding cash (not spending or hiring in a big way), and consumers are spending like there's no tomorrow. If my big multinational company is any indication, wages haven't been keeping pace with inflation.

I'm convinced we have had mild stagflation for the last five years. It's been hidden by consumer spending, CPI foo, and excitement over the stock market floating back up (slowly), and real estate. I believe we'll have an oil shock in the next year, which will finally get it through the thick heads of your average consumer. Then recession will be obvious.
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