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THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 07 Nov 2025, 20:39:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he U.S. Now Has:

1. Record $18.6 trillion in household debt

2. Record $13.1 trillion in mortgages

3. Record $1.7 trillion in auto loans

4. Record $1.7 trillion in student loans

5. Record $1.2 trillion in credit card debt

Total household debt is now up +60% over the last 10 years and total credit card debt is up +50% since 2020.

Meanwhile, delinquency rates on subprime auto borrowers are at a record 6.1%.

Americans are drowning in debt.


I get your point. The last 3 lines are what really make it, not raw numbers but proportionality.

Beyond this I have elsewhere read that AI stocks make up the vast majority of perceived growth, without which the USA would be in depression.

We have seen these bubbles 3 or 4 times in the past 30ish years.

Interesting times.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 07 Nov 2025, 20:51:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')We have seen these bubbles 3 or 4 times in the past 30ish years.

Interesting times.


Of course we have. And they always are. But Armie and Co. generally don't angle towards just bubbles bursting, but rather the cooler consequences that folks have thought would happen since this website was born.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 08 Nov 2025, 00:15:18

Adam thinks we can print trillions of dollars forever. He thinks because nothing has happened that nothing will happen. He’s going to find out sooner than late what’s coming, and it’s not going to be pretty. There’s a reason the governments and central banks are flocking to gold and why it’s $4000 per oz. It knows
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 08 Nov 2025, 10:46:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'A')dam thinks we can print trillions of dollars forever.

Adam doesn't print money. Adam speculates, like you,as an amateur when it comes to professional level macro economics. The difference between our speculations being that I do work with such professionals on a regular basis, and you can't define THE MEANING OF THE WORDS YOU USE.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')He thinks because nothing has happened that nothing will happen.

Adam is well aware of American history at large, with occasional other macro level events elsewhere in the world on an irregular basis. BECAUSE I WASN'T EDUCATED IN A MISSOURI MADRASA.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')He’s going to find out sooner than late what’s coming, and it’s not going to be pretty.

You mean...like when you claimed the US was collapsing? The other dozen times over the past 2 decades? Two dozen maybe? Do you even remember the number of times you've done your sky is falling routine? I'm not about to read your entire posting history to get that number, but a thinking person might know themselves? So do you? Or are you what you appear?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')There’s a reason the governments and central banks are flocking to gold and why it’s $4000 per oz. It knows


And how many times have you said that before? A thinking person would know.

Just like they would know the definition of the words they use.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 18 Nov 2025, 22:45:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'A')dam thinks we can print trillions of dollars forever. He thinks because nothing has happened that nothing will happen.

That's what the thousands of Italians living in Longarone below the Vajont dam believed. Of course that disaster wasn't a given like the collapse of the US economy is a given.

Scoured to bedrock

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We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 18 Nov 2025, 22:54:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'A')dam thinks we can print trillions of dollars forever. He thinks because nothing has happened that nothing will happen.

That's what the thousands of Italians living in Longarone below the Vajont dam believed.


Good thing I never thought anything like that! As far as Italians....they have a history to be proud of, just not of late. Australia...well.....you've got some nice beaches I hear. And a big rock.

And how bout those Olympians!

I'm guessing if Raygun met your boy in a bar she'd drink him under the table.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 18 Nov 2025, 23:08:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')We have seen these bubbles 3 or 4 times in the past 30ish years.
The EV bubble,
the SPAC bubble with Wework door dash zoom etc etc.
The Shale oil stockmarket bubble,
the housing bubble.
They were all after the IT bubble of 2000.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. shale industry peaked without ever making money. Over the past decade and a half, the shale industry totaled $300 billion in net negative cash flow, wrote down another $450 billion in invested capital, and saw more than 190 bankruptcies since 2010, according to a new report from Deloitte.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... Years.html

And people don't even realized it happened? Amazing. You can bet a lot of mom and pops lost money in that fiasco, even through things like pension fund investments. Let's face it, the man in the street is the ultimate bag holder for all this stuff.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 18 Nov 2025, 23:13:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')We have seen these bubbles 3 or 4 times in the past 30ish years.
The EV bubble,
the SPAC bubble with Wework door dash zoom etc etc.
The Shale oil stockmarket bubble,
the housing bubble.
They were all after the IT bubble of 2000.


So...your point is...Australia is such a shitty King directed economy that it can't even generate a BUBBLE?

Pretty pathetic place to live sounds like. At least you got that big rock and some nice beaches.

Oh..and it wasn't just shale oil, known as "the most oil produced by any country in the histroy of the world...ever", but also gas...also known as "the most natural gas produced in the history of the world....ever".

Seems like a bubble can ONLY happen when it occurs in a country of means that generates all time skyscraper results....as opposed to nearly flat islands full of parrots and folks who can't get vegemite off the ground with millions of dollars and rockets involved.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 18 Nov 2025, 23:21:22

I've tried for years to wake up these morons. Gold, just buy Gold! But they wouldn't listen, dumb sheep following Elon Musk and Joe Biden to their financial doom. I told them to get out of debt! But no, they piled it on buying new cars for their wives, thinking they were *smart* because they got a good interest rate. But it's not the interest rate that matters now, it's the repayment of the capital. Brainless sheep.


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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 19 Nov 2025, 00:45:26

3 signs that show an incoming recession…or worse

Trucking
Lumber demand
Cardboard box sales

All 3 are cratering
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 19 Nov 2025, 05:50:07

Once this AI bubble pops that will be it! There is no other bubble in the wings to maintain debt creation. I think there is a chance it might pop soon too. The leading figures are getting nervous in the media and talking about bailouts.

This article sums up the dilemma nicely.

Mises Wire
The Road to De-Civilization: Inflation and the Moral Erosion of Society

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')very major economic illusion begins with the corruption of a word. Inflation once meant popularly what it still means in truth—the artificial expansion of money and credit. But, over time, it has been redefined to describe its consequence rather than its cause. This deliberate inversion of language serves a political purpose: it shifts blame from those who create money to those who merely spend it, transforming an act of monetary fraud into a mere statistical “phenomenon.” The result is profound. By redefining inflation, governments have obscured its nature, economists have lost its meaning, and citizens have come to accept their gradual impoverishment as an unavoidable fact of life.
https://mises.org/mises-wire/road-de-ci ... on-society
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 19 Nov 2025, 18:41:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I')'ve tried for years to wake up these morons.

Well, in your world who would that be? Your children?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 23 Nov 2025, 12:06:16

UBS Raises Gold’s Roof Once Again

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nion Bank of Switzerland analysts Wayne Gordon, Giovanni Staunovo, and Dominic Schnider report that gold has held above 4000 dollars per ounce following a dramatic appreciation in 2025. They reiterate their claims of less than a month ago when they said in Gold’s Pause Before the Next Advance “The recent pullback has not altered the long-term narrative”. But in this update, they raise their price targets for both 2026 and 2027. The metal has risen nearly sixty percent year to date, making it the strongest performing global asset. The team expects further strength through 2026 and has raised its mid-year price target to 4500 dollars per ounce, previously 4200 dollars.
https://www.scottsdalemint.com/articles ... nce-again/

Shhhh, that's not on the TV set, it's a secret for the insiders who believed in PeakOil. Everyone else, just stick with Tesla and AI stocks ok. Endless energy, robots, flying cars, Mar's bases.

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 23 Nov 2025, 15:36:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Shhhh, that's not on the TV set, it's a secret for the insiders who believed in PeakOil.


Which one? Let me guess....just like you don't know what oils are involved in any peak oil, you don't even know how many times it has happened before because....well....it would require KNOWING stuff.

From "The Sydney Morning Herald"....in other words....Australians.

Australia nanny state: Have we become a nation of idiots?

Nothing like hearing the value of our local Australians blubbering oil nonsense from Australians themselves.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 12 Dec 2025, 08:45:49

Diversity, that's the key to investments, and that means the 50/50 rule. 50% Silver and 50% Gold. Well Silver has certainly been the investment of the decade, $96+ per ounce now in Aussie dollar terms. A 750% increase in price over the past 20 years :o

Time to plan a vacation I suppose, and with no wife, that means SE Asia :twisted:
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 12 Dec 2025, 20:09:25

Onward to $100 my beautiful silver
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 12 Dec 2025, 22:25:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'D')iversity, that's the key to investments, and that means the 50/50 rule. 50% Silver and 50% Gold.


No wonder you can't afford to buy a high school diploma to at least PRETEND to be educated. I'll take diversity for sure, if only because my market funds sure make the gold look....lesser. But hey, for those who don't understand investment stuff, sure, gold is better than nothing.
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 12 Dec 2025, 22:28:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'O')nward to $100 my beautiful silver


Have you figured out to do with yours yet, or still just watching it for fun because Sugar Momma has you covered?

Does your will break up who gets the good PMs versus the crappy ones?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 13 Dec 2025, 21:47:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'O')nward to $100 my beautiful silver


Good for you.

I don’t hold precious metals, does not fit with my mobile life style. But Incan see the allure.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 13 Dec 2025, 21:54:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'O')nward to $100 my beautiful silver


Good for you.

I don’t hold precious metals, does not fit with my mobile life style. But Incan see the allure.


I saw the allure. Once. But at the end of the day, at best I consider it maybe an inflation hedge? And that only works if you sell it. Never have myself, not even sure how if I wanted to. As Armie has said, he owns it and doesn't plan on doing anything with it, just enjoys watch its changing value with time. I've done about the same thing. It just isn't....interesting. It just....sits.

The stuff is heavy as well, maybe on a boat you could use it for ballast?
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