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THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Tue 28 Oct 2025, 09:37:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'W')hen you see Putin in military fatigues you know your time is running out.


Maybe the perspective from gutless Third World countries that can't defend themselves unless their King decides to help. In America we know it is just posturing from pipsqueaks time.

Now be a good toadie and back on your knees to service your King.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Tue 28 Oct 2025, 09:46:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', '
')“Think about that.”


Those who can, have.

And YOU, as opposed to some talking head on TV, defines "crash" how, exactly? Or are they as ignorant as you when it comes to, you know, the meaning of WORDS?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Tue 28 Oct 2025, 16:48:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'w')e can confirm tonight that millions of Joe Biden, illegal aliens, people who crossed the border when Joe was president, are now collecting food stamps from a program funded by hardworking American taxpayers.”


It's a hard equation to balance. The Growth model, that goes back hundreds of years, includes a certain intake of new people into a country to maintain itself. Sometimes the equation gets tipped too far and causes real problems in society. I should say, real problems in capitalistic-industrial societies because forced growth in population in the natural world is not needed at all. Nature finds the correct balance, we see it all around us. This natural balance only gets skewed when man is involved, like when he builds grain silos and barns that lead to a mouse plague. Like when he inadvertently (or overtly) imports a species into a region and upsets the natural balance (fire ants; foxes, rabbits).

All you can really say with any confidence is that womankind fucks it up every time and their empires of greed and subjugation collapse in a heap and they scatter like cockroaches when the light is turned on. This current industrial/financial empire began over 400 years ago in Portugal probably. The Western Christian empire of conquest over the Moslem empire and over the "new worlds". 400 years is about the average too, and when the current head of the snake, the US, loses control the empire will fade into obscurity. I find it interesting that the US has now withdrawn from the world stage as enforcer and is focusing on the Venezuelan oil rich lands. That's a classic sign of Empires' end when they begin to retreat to their core region. The problem for them is Russia and China are down there too. It's no longer their sole preserve.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Tue 28 Oct 2025, 16:54:02

China, Venezuela and the US: The Coming Confrontation in the Caribbean

October 5, 2025
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he United States appears to be on a mission to blow up alleged “narco-boats” in Venezuelan waters. In the last two weeks alone, two such vessels have been destroyed by the US navy with some fourteen casualties...

However, the ongoing naval adventure is aimed at addressing a larger geostrategic deficit that the United States faces vis a vis Venezuela. The current operations against the drug cartels and “narco-terrorists” in the region, is an indirect attempt at reducing the growing influence of China in Venezuela.

All weather allies

China is Venezuela’s biggest trading partner. Owing to the decade-long US economic blockade and diplomatic sanctions, Venezuela, over the years, has become increasingly dependent on Chinese trade and investment. As part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Venezuela has received tens of billions of dollars in loans, trade, and investments.

In fact, it would not be an exaggeration to suggest that Venezuela has become China’s number one client state in Latin America. Ever since the coming to power of the left-leaning regime of Hugo Chavez, some three decades back, Beijing has extended as much as $62.5 billion in loans to Venezuela. In the current context, China remains Venezuela’s biggest creditor.
https://thegeopolitics.com/china-venezu ... caribbean/

And for those ignorant of the fact.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is well known that Venezuela sits over the highest known oil reserves. Oil is Venezuela’s main and almost sole export. An increasingly energy reliant China has invested heavily in this sector. Needless to add, currently its firms have deep stakes in Venezuelan oil, power grids and infrastructure.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Sat 01 Nov 2025, 03:47:01

While Americans stock up on shares in overinflated companies, Russian citizens are quietly accumulating a vast reserve of gold that now rivals the official holdings of mid-sized European nations. $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n a story by Bloomberg, retail gold purchases in Russia are projected to reach 62.2 tons in 2025, bringing total household accumulation since 2022 to 282 tons. The study, published by Al Banyan Tree Research, highlights how Russian savers have increasingly turned to gold bars, coins, and jewelry as alternatives to foreign currencies.
https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/p/russi ... uying-gold

It's the future. The rejection of the $US and it's replacing with Gold. Happens every 100 years. Those that fail to remember history are doomed to repeat it.

Welcome Home to the American Dream

Rural Home.

Image

Suburban Home.

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High density living.

Image
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Sat 01 Nov 2025, 11:36:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Welcome Home to the American Dream


Your incessant posting about America sure seems like it is related to some psychological dysfunction, jealousy, a desire to find a place where you aren't subservient to a King or living in a country of no significance. And picking the place at the top of the pile in terms of political, military, technological and economic sway.

Yup, America has homeless folks. And real rocket scientists. Take the good with the bad I suppose...the only sure thing being...America can DO stuff....Australia can only DO what it is told.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Sat 01 Nov 2025, 20:05:46

Some Americans come on these forums and try and brag about owning Gold, but we know it's just BS. Serious Gold holders don't encumber their private finances with Debt. The don't buy overpriced Battcars with debt just to satisfy their wives. She who must be obeyed :lol:
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Sun 02 Nov 2025, 17:30:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'S')ome Americans come on these forums and try and brag about owning Gold......

Most posters on this forum over the years have been Americans, and I don't brag about owning gold, I admit it as a poor investment decision compared to my market tracking investments. Even you as a parrot should remember this.

Grow a brain, or a memory, or SOMETHING already and stop pretending everyone is as uneducated and ignorant as you are.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Sun 02 Nov 2025, 22:39:08

Gold as The Currency of Last Resort
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')By nearly every known valuation metric for gold prices – inverse of real rates, the US dollar and marginal costs – gold and precious metals have disconnected from fundamentals to the upside. Yet most analysts, including us, continue to recommend an overweight allocation in gold and precious metals. Why? Gold is a direct alternative to fiat currencies in times of policy-induced currency debasement and systemic risk; hence, we call it the currency of last resort. A position it has held for three millennia versus 16 years for cryptocurrencies. Gold can survive nearly anything and its position on the periodic table gives it an infinite half-life, making it the ultimate monetary refuge in times of distress.

We believe gold is being driven by three factors – Debasement concerns, De-dollarization and portfolio Diversification. Each is becoming increasingly important for investors to consider when making asset allocation decisions. For example, gold reversed a sell off last week on news of fresh, yet more aggressive sanctions on Russia that threatened secondary sanctions on anyone dealing with Russian oil companies. Such secondary sanctions could be very disruptive to global payment systems, reinforcing further de-dollarization demand for gold.

Currency Debasement Is Not Only the Result of Price Inflation

During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) confusion peaked over what was driving gold prices. Commentators attributed gold’s rise to inflationary and deflationary concerns. Clearly, it can’t be both at the same time, so was gold really an inflation hedge which was the prevailing view at the time? No. Debasement can occur with or without CPI-style inflation; what matters is the decline in real rates. Before the GFC, falling real rates were invariably associated with CPI-style, or what we like to call physical inflation. What we now know is that the dollar was being debased against inflation in financial assets like stock and bond prices, not physical inflation...
https://www.carlyle.com/carlyle-compass ... ast-resort
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Sun 02 Nov 2025, 23:17:24

[quote="theluckycountry"]Gold as The Currency of Last Resort
[quote]

Alternatively, just let it keep doing what its been doing for some 4 decades now. Becoming less valuable than the market investments.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Mon 03 Nov 2025, 22:30:41

Would be good if someone who "Actually owned Gold" came and commented on the thread.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Tue 04 Nov 2025, 10:37:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'W')ould be good if someone who "Actually owned Gold" came and commented on the thread.


Like me. Mine is in a box in a closet. I once used a safe deposit box, but it cost money every month and after a decade it wasn't like anyone knew I had it. So then I kept it in a foot locker where I lived, and for most of this century it just sits in a cardboard box, among other cardboard boxes, at the bottom of a closet where I keep suits and clothes I don't wear often anymore.

Since it is generally useless other than a conversation piece, and I don't talk about it much because you hardly want to tell folks they could just rob you and set themselves up pretty well, it remains less useful in the greater scheme of life than the motor oil I keep in the garage for when the kids car needs a quart. You know about kids Lucky, you've got one you are embarassed about, mine has a job with a decent sized, Denver based, international company at their global headquarters. He's young though, and has plenty of time to do better. The wife gets the gold when I croak. Let her figure out what to do with the useless stuff.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby theluckycountry » Tue 04 Nov 2025, 20:07:24

Drivers, central bank buying and a weakening dollar.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNyt4SDhG3U
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Thu 06 Nov 2025, 13:49:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'D')rivers, central bank buying and a weakening dollar.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNyt4SDhG3U


Sounds bad. Quick thinking man question....how many times in the past has this happened, and what were the economic consequences? Once you've got that figured out, here is the 2nd thinking man question. Does the current event stand out as exceptional in such a way, good or bad, as to NOT have similar consequences as the other times? 3rd thinking man question, in reference to question 2, if not, then WHO GIVES A SHIT, otherwise, enumerate the differences in order to...wait for it....STOP LOOKING LIKE AN UNEDUCATED PARROT WHO ONLY FINDS CONCLUSIONS THEY LIKE BECAUSE THEY CAN'T THINK THIER WAY OUT OF A WET PAPER BAG.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby Armageddon » Thu 06 Nov 2025, 18:46:50

The U.S. Now Has:

1. Record $18.6 trillion in household debt

2. Record $13.1 trillion in mortgages

3. Record $1.7 trillion in auto loans

4. Record $1.7 trillion in student loans

5. Record $1.2 trillion in credit card debt

Total household debt is now up +60% over the last 10 years and total credit card debt is up +50% since 2020.

Meanwhile, delinquency rates on subprime auto borrowers are at a record 6.1%.

Americans are drowning in debt.
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Thu 06 Nov 2025, 20:36:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he U.S. Now Has:

1. Record $18.6 trillion in household debt

2. Record $13.1 trillion in mortgages

3. Record $1.7 trillion in auto loans

4. Record $1.7 trillion in student loans

5. Record $1.2 trillion in credit card debt

Total household debt is now up +60% over the last 10 years and total credit card debt is up +50% since 2020.

Meanwhile, delinquency rates on subprime auto borrowers are at a record 6.1%.

Americans are drowning in debt.


Wow. And here is a thinking man's question. As the economy and population have grown, as have incomes able to service more debt, some of these metrics have generally moved upwards with both, others vary on the general condition of the economy.

So now, as the current dementia addled geriatric in the White House happily plays dice with the health of the American economy and credibility, these metrics might go higher just because. Generating the records you appear to be so afraid of, as an elephant is of a mouse as it were.

And, as we know from your posting history Armie, you ALWAYS use these metrics to predict the end. Have been for decades.

So can you explain why all these and other records you claimed mattered over 20 years now....but obviously didn't....are different this time? How are they different NOW, then all the other times where they didn't mean anything in the greater scheme of collapse and whatnot.

I'm willing to stick to just economic things, but you and most posters on this website claimed the same thing about peak oil.

And here we are, 7 years after THAT happened, and here we are whistling in a graveyard because of the embarassment involved.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby careinke » Thu 06 Nov 2025, 22:48:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he U.S. Now Has:

1. Record $18.6 trillion in household debt

2. Record $13.1 trillion in mortgages

3. Record $1.7 trillion in auto loans

4. Record $1.7 trillion in student loans

5. Record $1.2 trillion in credit card debt

Total household debt is now up +60% over the last 10 years and total credit card debt is up +50% since 2020.

Meanwhile, delinquency rates on subprime auto borrowers are at a record 6.1%.

Americans are drowning in debt.


Along with the rest of the world. Government FIAT Currencies are Dead Men Walking, they will be replaced soon, hopefully NOT with a CBDC.

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Thu 06 Nov 2025, 23:09:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Along with the rest of the world. Government FIAT Currencies are Dead Men Walking, they will be replaced soon, hopefully NOT with a CBDC.
Peace


Careinke! Just the poster I was looking for. Was reading some news this evening, and a BTC article caught my eye. As you know I don't use, worry about or plan on using BTC....but the article mentioned it has fallen some 20% over the past few months or so?

So what causes changes in BTC compared to, for example the market? Market watcher types are always talking about interest rates of deficits or slow down in the economy or consumer spending, but as BTC isn't tied to much other than what people believe it is worth....why has it value dropped? What real world effect is causing it to drift downwards as of late?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby careinke » Fri 07 Nov 2025, 04:34:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Along with the rest of the world. Government FIAT Currencies are Dead Men Walking, they will be replaced soon, hopefully NOT with a CBDC.
Peace


Careinke! Just the poster I was looking for. Was reading some news this evening, and a BTC article caught my eye. As you know I don't use, worry about or plan on using BTC....but the article mentioned it has fallen some 20% over the past few months or so?

So what causes changes in BTC compared to, for example the market? Market watcher types are always talking about interest rates of deficits or slow down in the economy or consumer spending, but as BTC isn't tied to much other than what people believe it is worth....why has it value dropped? What real world effect is causing it to drift downwards as of late?


Historically, This has been the least volatile BTC cycle in history. Normally the Bullish phase contains 5-7 35% pullbacks or greater. So historically, we should be expecting even more pullbacks to come, with each one recovering to new highs before a blow off top marking the end of the Bull run. Every cycle, people claim "this time is different", and every time they have been proven wrong. This time, they may be right.

The biggest difference is BTC finally got noticed by Large Financial Institutions, who finally figured out they could make a lot more money using BTC than fighting it. ETF's legitimized BTC's for retirement funds. Some companies will even give loans using BTC as collateral like when you use the property you are buying as collateral. Loans are not taxable events. The rich use this loophole all the time. It's a great example for us proles.

My guess is the current downturn is due to a lack of liquidity, caused by the Government Shutdown, which in turn was/is a deliberate Deathocratic strategy. Lots of federal employees have been denied their salaries over the past month while Congress get's a pay raise. This will become a significant milestone in many lives.

I'm glad I get to observe and record it. Right now, our passive incomes provide me and my wife a pretty comfortable lifestyle, including extra money to invest. Presently my TESLA bags are smaller than I want, so most of our investment money is going to that, but it's NOT coming out of my BTC holdings.

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Re: THE Silver & Gold Thread (merged)

Postby AdamB » Fri 07 Nov 2025, 11:26:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', ' ')Some companies will even give loans using BTC as collateral like when you use the property you are buying as collateral. Loans are not taxable events. The rich use this loophole all the time. It's a great example for us proles.


So when the value of collateral falls below loan value, can't there be nasty repercussions? Suddenly it makes more sense to let the loan institution keep the collateral and walk away. With houses it was "jiggle mail" in 2008. What is it in BTC world?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')My guess is the current downturn is due to a lack of liquidity, caused by the Government Shutdown, which in turn was/is a deliberate Deathocratic strategy.

Yes...seeing as how they aren't in charge of anything related to running the government right now....it makes perfect sense to pin things on them. Like THEY voted for the dementia addled geriatric and company.

And whats with the Deathocratic strategy? You've mentioned it more than once now, but I am unfamiliar with what they did that might trigger such a nickname. Flouride in water? Birth control for whomever wants it? Where did this angle originate? Women allowed to have control over their bodies?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', '
')Lots of federal employees have been denied their salaries over the past month while Congress get's a pay raise. This will become a significant milestone in many lives.

Undoubtedly. Probably was during some of the others as well. They'll get reimbursed after the fact as they always have. The damage to the economy and whatnot, people dependent on government services would seem to be just as much a milestone. Like some poor person is going to not eat for a month because of the duly elected corporate controlled chowder heads in Washington and not remember THAT.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', ' ')
I'm glad I get to observe and record it. Right now, our passive incomes provide me and my wife a pretty comfortable lifestyle, including extra money to invest. Presently my TESLA bags are smaller than I want, so most of our investment money is going to that, but it's NOT coming out of my BTC holdings.

Peace @ Sustainable Abundance


Hey, no one (except Australia parrots maybe) would begrudge us old farts from living off of mailbox money. Well...maybe those who get to retirement age and can't live off mailbox money. But my parents made it some 20 years in the mailbox money phase of their lives, no BTC needed just the usual investment type stuff, so enjoy!

Hope the kids are doing well, and next time you see big fish while out in a boat post some pictures!
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