[theluckycountry]

I didn't nail PeakSolar like I did PeakEV, I wasn't watching it, it was too convoluted and almost defied analysis. What with it's mishmash of residential commercial and government activity and the interaction of the utilities etc. It's happened though, sometime in the recent past. The collapse of the US retail market was a shock to me though because that's one end of the spectrum where it actually makes sense. They did something very very wrong over there...

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I') didn't nail PeakSolar like I did PeakEV, I wasn't watching it, it was too convoluted and almost defied analysis.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')odern economics is shrouded in idiosyncratic self-serving definitions, arcane mathematics, and circular arguments which make it very difficult to understand. But once one gets the scorecard straight, it can be seen that modern economics is nothing more than a social imitation of nineteenth-century physics. Economists are trained to believe that "money" is to the economy what "energy" is to the physical world. This leads them to believe that whatever is "economically" possible is "physically" possible too. What economists fail to realize is that the economy is a subsystem of the physical system, and thus constrained by universal physical laws that they have not studied.

Since economists study the prices of everything, they feel they are qualified to issue opinions about everything. But the reality is quite the opposite. Economists first abstract all commodities to money -- which of course, obliterates all physical differences between the commodities themselves. This leaves economists uniquely unqualified to know the physical relationships between the commodities they purport to study. Because of their total dependence on the measure of "money", today's leading economists do not know the difference between "libraries" and "oil":

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')odern economics is shrouded in idiosyncratic self-serving definitions, arcane mathematics, and circular arguments which make it very difficult to understand.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he recent Iberian blackout was not caused by a failure of solar power generation, but rather by a voltage spike and subsequent grid instability that cascaded into a major outage. While solar farms were involved in the initial generation loss events, the root cause was a breakdown in how the electricity system was managed, not a fundamental flaw in renewable energy sources

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Grid Collapse in Iberia: Analyzing the 2025 Power Outage from Solar to Cascade Failures

[theluckycountry]

Department of Energy Releases Report on Evaluating U.S. Grid Reliability and Security

And it's not good.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Department of Energy warns that blackouts could increase by 100 times in 2030 if the U.S. continues to shutter reliable power sources and fails to add additional firm capacity. The analysis reveals that existing generation retirements and delays in adding new firm capacity, driven by the radical green agenda of past administrations, will lead to a surge in power outages and a growing mismatch between electricity demand and supply...

[theluckycountry]

https://www.greenpowertalk.org/forumdisplay.php?f=3

Green Power Talk, go and have a look. No delusions there, just down to earth backyard systems, mostly based on old reliable designs. For a farm or a rural property small wind power generators are a good call. For powering cities they are a dead-end.

You'll notice the forum is as dead as this one, the solar section too. I think the minority of people engaged have just given up on such things and the younger generations haven't a clue as to how to start a lawnmower so the tech is no use to them. A planet of couch potatoes and phone junkies.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')b]Department of Energy Releases Report on Evaluating U.S. Grid Reliability and Security
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Department of Energy warns that blackouts could increase by 100 times in 2030 if the U.S. continues to shutter reliable power sources and fails to add additional firm capacity. The analysis reveals that existing generation retirements and delays in adding new firm capacity, driven by the radical green agenda of past administrations, will lead to a surge in power outages and a growing mismatch between electricity demand and supply...

[theluckycountry]

Power systems: It's a relief to know these "oil tankers" so to speak take a long time to slow down. It gives many of us time to prepare. Here in Australia we have been lucky but many other 1st world nations are right on the brink.

How New Zealand got through the power supply threat by a narrow margin
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')0 May 2024: National grid operator Transpower gave the industry less than 24 hours notice of the immediate risk of power cuts and blackouts, with a call for as much as power as possible and a warning to be ready to reduce demand. That was followed by the mid-afternoon public call for conservation or face the risk of power cuts.

In the end it got through with businesses and households delivering savings of about 260 megawatts (MW), equivalent to power that would have been consumed by Hamilton city. "It was colder than expected, so the response from Kiwis at home and our major industrial electricity users was essential to ensure that all New Zealanders had continuous access to power this morning," chief executive Alison Andrew said. But there were a few nervous moments as one plant went down on Thursday night, and a couple of the gas fired plants took time to get online.

[theluckycountry]

New Zealand's dilemma explained.

All-blackout
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')uest articles
9 Aug 2024

New Zealand has major problems with its power supply. There are three underlying reasons: the weather, a flawed electricity market and a drive for ‘net zero’. Sixty-five percent of New Zealand’s electricity is provided by hydropower, and the remainder by geothermal, gas, coal, wind and some solar. In a dry year, hydro’s ability to deliver falls away, and we lose about 10% of our generation. In the past, we always tried to have the reservoirs full by the end of summer to guard against this possibility. But, when we switched to an electricity market, this was forgotten.

This year, we failed to refill the reservoirs, and levels are now unusually low, and declining fast. They could bottom out if it does not rain heavily in the next month or so. The ability of our fossil fuel power stations to step into the gap has been severely restricted. We used to get 20% of our electricity from gas-fired power stations, but six years ago, as part of their decarbonisation policy, the previous government banned further exploration, and we are now desperately short of fuel. The new government is encouraging new exploration efforts, but it will be too little too late.

And the situation has been made worse by poor market design. New Zealand was one of the pioneers of electricity markets, and chose a risky model, which has proved to be seriously flawed – it has failed to deliver sufficient generating capacity to get us through a dry year.

As a result, the problems this year have led to wholesale market prices rising to ridiculous levels – as much as £1/kWh. This has already caused some factories to shut down; others are under threat. The politicians are beginning to realise that the energy crisis could have serious effects on consumers, and there is speculation that they will be forced to intervene. This could mean forcing our gas and coal-fired power stations to run flat out day and night – assuming they have got enough fuel, which is not at all certain. Failing this, the only solution in the short term may be rolling blackouts. That will cause major disruption all over the country.

How did we get here?
Firstly, the electricity market is simply not fit for purpose. The underlying propositions are that ‘electricity is a commodity like any other’ and that ‘when the price goes up, the demand goes down’. But electricity is not a commodity like any other, because it does not have an alternative good and it does not have significant price elasticity. So it isn't a market that Adam Smith would recognise. As two departing CEOs said, the way to make money in the market is to keep the system on the edge of a shortage. Which means that disaster is inevitable if a dry year occurs. An article I wrote that explains why the market is a failure can be found here. It recommends a single buyer market, a design which I believe would work because all it does is add genuine competition to the old integrated system, which did work quite well.

But another cause is the blind pursuit of ‘Net Zero’, which is what has driven the closing down of gas exploration and the desire to shut down our coal fired station, which, right now, is doing a vital job in keeping the lights on.

The long-term problem...

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')How New Zealand...otherwise known as those folks with IQs 50 points higher than the prison colony descendants nearby, obviously got through the power supply threat by a narrow margin that would have killed all of the dunderheads in Australia.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')he price of tomatoes are getting close to $10/kg, f onily we Aussies knew how to grew stuff, the prices we pay for things wouldn't be so awful.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/360744 ... bills-gone

[theluckycountry]

Stanwell exits Gladstone green hydrogen project

It was going to make hydrogen from Solar (electrolysis) but proved to be uneconomic, as anyone with an ounce of grey matter knew all along.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Central Queensland Hydrogen Project (CQ-H2) has been scrapped after lead partner Stanwell Corporation announced its withdrawal from the consortium of Australian and international partners developing the 2.88 GW green hydrogen production facility.

The CQ-H2 project, being developed near Gladstone in Central Queensland, was to initially involve the installation of up to 720 MW of electrolysers to produce up to 73,000 tonnes of green hydrogen per year for domestic use and export. It was proposed the project would ultimately scale up to 2.88 GW of electrolysis capacity to produce more than 1 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen per annum.

The project has however now been dumped with Queensland state-owned generator Stanwell confirming in a two-sentence statement that it has ended its involvement in the project, as well as other hydrogen development activities. Stanwell’s exit comes after Japanese company Kansai Electric Power, which was to be one of the project’s ­anchor customers, pulled out of the consortium in November, citing higher production expenses than initially projected in the feasibility study.

Fellow Japanese company Iwatani also exited the estimated $12.5 billion (USD 8.22 billion) venture in March.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')b]Stanwell exits Gladstone green hydrogen project, parrot says

[theluckycountry]

Oops! PeakSolar

China’s solar industry braces for slowdown as demand outlook dims
July 8, 2025 https://www.sunhub.com/blog/china-solar ... down-2025/
European solar sector issues yellow card as market data reveals 92% growth decline and investment slump https://www.solarpowereurope.org/press- ... ment-slump
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')pr 5, 2025 — Slovenia's solar market has experienced a slowdown in 2024

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')China’s solar industry braces for slowdown as demand outlook dims

[theluckycountry]

Smart money got there first!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The Climate Short: Hedge Funds Pile Up Huge Bets Against Green Future

The $5 trillion industry's move against clean energy and green technology may prove more damaging than political pushback over "woke" capitalism. 21 October 2024 at 5:00 am AEST

The fast money on Wall Street has taken a close look at key sectors in the green economy and decided to bet against them. Despite vast green stimulus packages in the US, Europe and China, more hedge funds are on average net short batteries, solar, electric vehicles and hydrogen than are long those sectors; and more funds are net long fossil fuels than are shorting oil, gas and coal,

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'p')arrot says...parrots....something....

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')And what has the EV, solar and wind achieved?