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Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 01 Jun 2025, 13:18:48

Not a BTC investor, but it still cracks me up that the crumbs left over in my phone wallet from the pizza days are worth more than the phone cost. I'll likely never do anything with them, but its funny to track.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Mon 02 Jun 2025, 05:10:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', ' ')Volatility is a feature, not a bug.
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Well that would seem to depend on the investor. If returns were all positive for both plus and minus volatility then that sounds good. But that doesn't tend to be the way returns work, unless we are discussing shorting type of instruments. Which would be the flip side to collecting returns on positive increases in value.


BTC volatility usually moves three standard deviations up followed by 1 1/2-2 standard deviation's down. So it's pretty simple to make money, just buy when it is going down and HODL. Traditionally, most of BTC gains are made 10-14 days a year so you half to stay in the game. This is why volatility is considered a feature. :)

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 02 Jun 2025, 16:29:10

Did you notice that severe dip in the Dow back on April 8th inke, it took BC all the way down to $74k, both bottoms within a day of each other of course. "US stock market futures fall" Was the news a few hours ago but the index continues to trade sideways, as does the crypto. I'd be very wary of the stock market if I was a crypto hodler right now, it's poised for a huge selloff, the tariffs being the trigger nominally but it'll really just be a normal repricing, the eradication of all the BS gains since Obama went money printing.

Sadly it will take trillions of pension dollars with it, all money that people like Musk have already milked from their corporations. That's how the system works though hey. But the crypto (if you look at the price chart) is due for it's big cyclical selloff anyway. Do you have any predictions on how low BC will go this time around? 10k, 20k? We're really in uncharted waters hey, there is no reason it won't exceed the last lows, that pattern could be broken by the super-cycle low (1933).

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Why is BC linked to the stock markets?

A few reasons, not definitive.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')itcoin futures ETFs have been around for a while, these ETFs do not hold any bitcoin and only hold futures contracts based on the future price of bitcoin. This makes them potentially even more volatile than bitcoin itself.
Bitcoin mining stocks. Bitcoin mining is a real business in which companies own and operate large data centers used for mining bitcoin. Some of these companies are publicly traded, allowing you to invest in the operation of mining bitcoin and the profit mining companies make in the process.


Then you have entities like microstrategy which hodls as a part of it's corporate aims.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 02 Jun 2025, 18:39:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Why is BC linked to the stock markets?

A few reasons, not definitive.


But not yours. That requires thinking.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')itcoin futures ETFs have been around for a while, these ETFs do not hold any bitcoin and only hold futures contracts based on the future price of bitcoin. This makes them potentially even more volatile than bitcoin itself.
Bitcoin mining stocks. Bitcoin mining is a real business in which companies own and operate large data centers used for mining bitcoin. Some of these companies are publicly traded, allowing you to invest in the operation of mining bitcoin and the profit mining companies make in the process.


There is the neoNazi parrot!

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 02 Jun 2025, 19:27:15

I know it's hard adam but just keep reading my posts, you'll pick up bits and pieces here and there, dribs and drabs of knowledge, one day you may even learn something that can pull you up out of the mire a ways. Imagine that :o
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 02 Jun 2025, 21:55:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I') know it's hard adam but just keep reading my posts, you'll pick up bits and pieces here and there,


Not your posts Polly. Your cherry picked information to support biased perspectives are sometimes interesting. What becomes obvious quickly though is you have no knowledge of anything contrary to your beliefs. This is invisible to your midget and uneducated mind. It marks you.

Your posts where you try and offer some sort of opinions are infantile drivel. That's what I pick up from you.
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Mon 02 Jun 2025, 22:08:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'D')id you notice that severe dip in the Dow back on April 8th inke, it took BC all the way down to $74k, both bottoms within a day of each other of course.


Why are you asking me questions after you put me on your enemies list? I don't know if you will see this, but the answer is of course I saw it. I also bought more.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 03 Jun 2025, 03:18:56

So you think BC is poised for another big collapse inke. #MeToo
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Tue 03 Jun 2025, 06:39:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'S')o you think BC is poised for another big collapse inke. #MeToo


How in the hell did you come to that conclusion unlucky? Not that it really means much your knowledge of Finance is severely lacking, I read your posts mostly for the humor in them. If you think BTC is poised for a "big collapse" take up my bet.

I did find your post in the Pensions and Unemployment Benefits thread particularly humorous:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Q')uite! I wonder what the fee is on a partial BC transaction, like $200? It's just another failure of BC to deliver, it was supposed to be better in this regard but a direct online bank to bank transfer between two people is free, instantaneous, and much more secure since you have the backing of major banks. Again though, no one uses BC for buying or selling stuff anyway. As a community currency it's a total failure.


Here are your errors:

1. There is no such thing as a partial BC transaction, it is either a full transaction or no transaction.

2. The cost of the transaction is determined by the buyers, in a free market system, that would waste my time to explain to you.

3. It does not matter how much BTC you are buying, the cost will be the same at the time of purchase, $2.00 of fiat or $2,000,000,000.00 the cost will be the same at the time of purchase. The trick is to buy when the volume is low.

4. A direct person to person transfer using banks is; not instantaneous, nor free, nor permanent. I can give you my bank routing number if you want to try it out. Or you could accept my Bet and try it when I win.

5. Banks are run by people who routinely rip their customer's off, get sued, and consider it just the cost of business which they pass on to their customers. Bitcoin is trustless, and no company owns it therefore it is WAY more secure than a bank, banks fail all the time, BTC has NEVER failed even once since Pizza day.

6. Most people who have BTC, use it as currency (around 65%), primarily the unbanked and outside of the US. You do not need a bank to use BTC, just a phone with SMS capability. Most of the BTC wealth (also around 65%) is held in the U.S.

You need to start thinking in SATs not Bitcoin. Eventually, you will be using SAT's routinely after all the FIAT dies a well deserved death. Don't worry about Bitcoin, you will never own one, simple math.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 03 Jun 2025, 21:32:22

Freedom, Decentralization, & Unity: Stay True To These Principles & The Future Is Ours, Says Ross Ulbricht
Whose Ulbricht? He's the guy who just out of prison for running a website based on bitcoin transactions. Yes people actually do exchange BC peer to peer; drug dealers, pedofiles, arms dealers. All the offscouring of society. I suppose he's working on a new way to enable these criminals while keeping himself out of the Big house. Time will tell. Where was this BC conference held? Las Vegas of course, home all the hopeless gamblers :lol:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')“Bitcoin’s power comes from the fact that any one of us can mine if we choose to, and any one of us can generate addresses if we choose to,” stated Ross. “Any one of us can send bitcoin to anyone else. We are all on equal footing with Bitcoin. With Bitcoin, we are all free.”

Of course you can facilitate transactions a lot faster, easier, and cheaper with a bank transfer, but if it's sex with someones 9 year old child you are buying you might be exposing yourself to the FBI. That's where the Freedom of BC comes in.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')oss Ulbricht became a controversial figure after launching Silk Road in 2011, an online marketplace that used Bitcoin for anonymous transactions. While the site was unfortunately used for selling illegal drugs, it also served as Bitcoin’s first real-world use case, showcasing the power of decentralized, censorship-resistant money.


The first real life case of extended peer to peer use and the last. It's the unit of account for the lowest criminal scum on the planet and a lotto ticket for the rest.

You can read the BS and Lies here: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/freedo ... s-ulbricht
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 03 Jun 2025, 22:05:16

Some lies just take longer to expose than others. look at the Iraq war for example. Everyone knows it and Afghanistan had nothing to do with "Enduring Freedom" Iraq was a police station to pressure Saudi Arabia and Iraq and that aspect failed. It was also about stealing oceans of oil, and that sort of paid off. Afghanistan was about cheap opium for Big Pharma and that was a success, so successful in fact that it led to an Opioid epidemic in the United States.

I think most people understand all this now, and if thy don't, then there is no hope for them whatsoever. Be careful of the word freedom. When anyone uses it what they are actually referring to is Enslavement.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 03 Jun 2025, 23:10:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')“Bitcoin’s power comes from the fact that any one of....


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')oss Ulbricht became a controversial figure after launching Silk Road in 2011, an online marketplace that used Bitcoin for anonymous transactions. While the site was unfortunately used for selling illegal drugs, it also served as Bitcoin’s first real-world use case, showcasing the power of decentralized, censorship-resistant money.


You can read the BS and Lies here: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/freedo ... s-ulbricht


<yawn> No thought here....just the usual.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 04 Jun 2025, 07:56:55

The Dow has been range bound for 5 days @ 42,000
And BTC has been range bound for 5 days around 105,000

When are you going to admit it inke, that the fortunes of BC are inextricably linked to the fate of the US stock market? I've posted on the correlation going all the way back to the first significant rise and fall of the token. BT is not independent of the blob as claimed, it's owned bought and paid for by the money shufflers. All the claims of financial independence are Lies based on false assumptions. Your entire crypto portfolio is based on a LIE.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Wed 04 Jun 2025, 13:47:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')he Dow has been range bound for 5 days @ 42,000
And BTC has been range bound for 5 days around 105,000

When are you going to admit it inke, that the fortunes of BC are inextricably linked to the fate of the US stock market? I've posted on the correlation going all the way back to the first significant rise and fall of the token. BT is not independent of the blob as claimed, it's owned bought and paid for by the money shufflers. All the claims of financial independence are Lies based on false assumptions. Your entire crypto portfolio is based on a LIE.


Yet, I still make money. Oh look gold is down again.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 05 Jun 2025, 15:06:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')un 05, 2025
Warren Buffett shifts gears, pours billions into Consumer Staples... Berkshire Hathaway has significantly reduced its stakes in several major financial institutions... Contrasting its divestments, the fund has initiated a substantial investment in Constellation Brands, known for its portfolio of alcoholic beverages, including popular beer brands like Modelo and Corona.


Beer, the poor man's drink. Such products sell well in bad economic times as people drown their sorrows. A classic recession/depression investment.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 05 Jun 2025, 20:27:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')un 05, 2025
Warren Buffett shifts gears, pours billions into Consumer Staples... Berkshire Hathaway has significantly reduced its stakes in several major financial institutions... Contrasting its divestments, the fund has initiated a substantial investment in Constellation Brands, known for its portfolio of alcoholic beverages, including popular beer brands like Modelo and Corona.


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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 05 Jun 2025, 21:27:24

$101,857. Where's this big leg up inke keeps telling me about?
Perhaps it's in the silver market? $55.1/oz aussie, new all time high I think. I grabbed 30 extra kg 2 years back, good move.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Thu 05 Jun 2025, 21:51:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '$')101,857. Where's this big leg up inke keeps telling me about?
Perhaps it's in the silver market? $55.1/oz aussie, new all time high I think. I grabbed 30 extra kg 2 years back, good move.


OMG!! I managed to pick up some more at $100,420. Check out the Coinbase 1Hr chart, if this continues to play out it will be my closest to the bottom buy ever.

Of course a lot of "guessers" are calling for a $92,000 bottom, and they could be right. We will see.

I missed the Tesla fall today, (out gardening), and I neglected to put in a limit buy order, maybe tomorrow.

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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 05 Jun 2025, 21:54:24

Be double digits by tomorrow. Perhaps a shot of Viagra's needed :shock:
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 09 Jun 2025, 17:01:26

After June 6 the Dow Jones turned up again, dragging BC along, as we now see. This "pop up" and sideways shift in stocks is still continuing with modest gains daily.
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ftsa&q=dow+jones+chart&ia=web
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