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US Jobs

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

US Jobs

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 15 Apr 2025, 15:58:29

Make America great again by bringing manufacturing jobs back home. I'd like to think it could work, it did work once, Australia once made Washing machines and large electric generators for hydro, nuts and bolts and power tools and cement mixers. Anything you could name (pre-computer-age) We exported a bit too, South Africa loved our cars and new Zealand bought a lot of stuff as well, but most of the production was simply satisfying internal demand. In the 1970's it all began to change, inflation of the money supply due to the abandonment of the Gold standard pushed house prices and much else up. Wages began to climb in response with aggressive unions demanding more and more.

So it was rational to close factories here where the product could be bought for less overseas, where cheap labor was. The consumers were happy too because they could have more appliances in their homes for the same cost. No more was an electric drill and saw the preserve of carpenters, we could all buy a cheap Taiwanese one. It was a marriage made in heaven, but a marriage doomed to end in dramas. Turn back the clock? If you want to pay $500 for a battery drill. But a bigger issue cited is the labor itself. How many millennials would be willing to do 9-to-5 in a noisy dirty factory, where they actually had to use their muscles. No room for upward mobility there either, you might make foreman one day but that's a crap job that doesn't pay a lot more than the floor workers get. Manufacturing is a humble job, you are a cog in a machine, nothing more. It got people off the farm and guaranteed them a weekly wage, that was it.

Image

Can The Work Ethic Make A Return?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I’m as excited as anyone about the prospect of a return of American manufacturing. But there are huge barriers, among which is the profitability metrics of accounting. Will it make sense from an economic point of view? Without that piece in place, political wishes and national determination will not be enough.

The United States has outsourced vast amounts of its once-mighty manufacturing power to China, Mexico, and elsewhere. It seemed mutually beneficial for decades until we took note of how strange it all is that America should have so few industries it can call its own... There are other issues besides, among which is something more fundamental: the American work ethic. This is a cultural problem emerging from decades of easy money and a loss of enterprising drive.

Tim Cook of Apple has made clear that the real reason iPhones and other Apple products are made in China rather than the United States is not wages. It is technical skill and precision. These products require extreme discipline, knowledge, and deep experience. The number of workers who can do this in China is large; in the United States it is tiny.

I think about all the “white collar” workers I’ve known who would blow a mental gasket if ever asked to do anything remotely this complicated. Forget assembling an iPhone. They couldn’t possibly shop for five households simultaneously, bag the groceries, and deliver them.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/c ... rn-5841642

The article discusses mundane sit on your bum jobs but opens with this picture. This sort of work is best done by people who grew up working, who are familiar with hard work so to speak. These jobs don't exactly jibe with the Cheetos and Instagram culture of today.

Image
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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 15 Apr 2025, 16:09:16

And this is what you are competing with.

Chinese workers found in 'slave-like conditions' at BYD's Brazil facility
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Brazilian authorities have uncovered 163 Chinese workers employed in ‘slavery-like conditions’ at a construction site for an electric vehicle (EV) factory owned by Chinese automaker BYD in Bahia state, the South China Morning Post reported on Tuesday. Officials said the workers were hired in China and brought to Brazil irregularly by another firm, violating labour laws.

The workers endured excessive hours, often labouring seven days a week in dangerous conditions, and lived in degrading accommodations, Brazil’s labour prosecutor's office said. Many had their passports confiscated, and some required permission to leave their lodgings. Even the minimum safety conditions were allegedly not being met in the work environment, violating Brazilian laws designed to safeguard human dignity and protect against forced labour and debt bondage.
https://www.business-standard.com/world ... 361_1.html

Violating Brazilian standards :lol: That's rich. But the Chinese are going there for one simple reason no doubt, cheaper labor.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')razilian wages are generally considered low compared to developed countries and even some other middle-income economies. While the average salary in Brazil is about USD 7,025 per year, this is significantly lower than, for example, the US, which has a per-capita income roughly six times higher,


What else are they planning to manufacture there? And do really believe manufacturing will come back to American shores in any volume that it makes a difference?
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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby careinke » Wed 16 Apr 2025, 16:35:17

Lucky,

I don't think you are taking Robotics and AI into your calculations. Within three years, no human will be doing any manual labor manufacturing, (except as a hobby). It's all about economics, isn't everything???

Let's look at the numbers with a human style robot in a manufacturing plant. Each robot will cost around 30K, and the price will continually drop every year just like TV's. Each robot can replace 2-3 workers permanently for any job in the plant. Cost of operation is limited to energy costs and replacement/repair costs. Robot don't care what job they are doing; they don't take vacations; you don't have to pay/house and tax them. Training and retraining take minutes as their job assignment changes. Basically, labor costs are quickly going to zero. So bottom line, no one will have to do the dirty jobs.

Hopefully I'll get to post this, it seems my error messages, have started to decrease.

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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 16 Apr 2025, 18:13:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'L')ucky,

I don't think you are taking Robotics and AI into your calculations. Within three years, no human will be doing any manual labor manufacturing, (except as a hobby). It's all about economics, isn't everything???

Let's look at the numbers...


Well even if that is possible, and it's not, since things like iphones will always be assembled by humans, because they are a lot cheaper. Either way that won't help you in the US will it. You have little to no manufacturing, and the manufacturing you do have is basically assembling components made in China or elsewhere.
Here is a few examples of people performing jobs in the West. Perhaps you can post up pictures of the robots that are going to replace some them. In 3 years.

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

PS. Manufacturing isn't coming back to the United States. That is an election promise, as valid as Biden's superCharger build out across America, or Obama's cheap healthcare for all. As for A.I. That's just a Wall Street bubble that is already collapsing. It's a BS dream like Fusion power stations and moon bases, like mass produced flying cars and under-sea cities. Why anyone would want to live under the sea I can't imagine but for a decade everyone believed it was coming and there were lines of people willing to go down there. Just like the millions who are signed up to go the Mars and live under domes. I wish they would, I really do.
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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby careinke » Wed 16 Apr 2025, 20:56:55

Lucky,

With maybe the exception of the priest, every one of those jobs will be replaced by robots/AI within five years. Now add in; surgeons, doctors, cashiers, stockbrokers, salesmen, ushers, most/all healthcare workers, most government employees, bankers, mechanics, psychiatrists, and basically anything else a human can do. Welcome to the future, you have a lot of catching up to do.

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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 17 Apr 2025, 09:52:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'W')ith maybe the exception of the priest, every one of those jobs will be replaced by robots/AI within five years. Now add in; surgeons, doctors, cashiers, stockbrokers, salesmen, ushers, most/all healthcare workers, most government employees, bankers, mechanics, psychiatrists, and basically anything else a human can do. Welcome to the future, you have a lot of catching up to do.


While I'll be retired by then anyway, I think you have your time horizon set too short. Ten though... It'll take ten years for congress to even consider granting AI prescribing privileges for instance. Not to mention solving the riddle of who holds liability for poor outcomes.

Lots of fabric needing to be woven before AI/robots go as far as you suggest... And MAGA folks aren't likely to be helpful in moving that forward.

At 5-10 years, I'm retired, so AI assistance would be nice (and CHEAP). Copilot has been pretty useful so far, and pretty accurate when I've asked it technical questions. I assume the other AI entities also have attained some degree of usefulness.
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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 19 Apr 2025, 18:38:35

Well if inke's right then there will be mass starvation lol. Because corporations don't pay people who don't work. But all the robotics dreams are based on SciFi. As it stands there are stuff all robots working outside of factories painting and welding cars. And the ones that are, well they are typically novelty robots, little machines serving coffee on flat floors. They cost 100k but the owners lease them and count on increased revenues from the curious coming in to be served by a bot.

Image

This isn't a real one in service, it's a million dollar unit set up in a lab doing trials. But people read these stories and believe that they will be everywhere one day? They don't realize that the companies are mostly just chasing research investment and funding, like all those American EV makers that are now defunct! what homeowner will pay for this? What cafe even. "Oh but they will get cheaper" Just because toasters and computers got a little cheaper (and crappier) doesn't mean a million dollar robot will be $5000 in a few years :roll: Are cars cheaper now? Are houses? Is food?

This is what's actually running around, humans make the coffee and the bot carts it out to the customer. No small feat either considering the LIDAR and all else needed so it doesn't run over grandma's foot.

Image

Every generation has it's dreams and as the cycle of economic disaster approaches they seem to retreat more and more into fantasy land. Pinning their hopes on an Amazing new technology to save them from the fallout of other Amazing technologies. The Amazing car and the amazing jet plane have done an Amazing job draining the world's oil fields. Amazing Air-conditioning and Amazing Bitcoin have done an Amazing job pushing our electricity grids to the brink of collapse. Now they believe we can have a George Jetson's future. Dear oh dear.

Image

It's an old story.

Image
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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 03 May 2025, 19:07:39

Mass AI would necessitate Guaranteed Basic Income so that people could eat and buy needless stuff to make the economy grow.

I get that Trump is trying to bring manufacturing back to the USA, but that would not make sense if it were only to create AI jobs. But then, if AI can do the work then it does not matter where it is done.

Idle hands do the Devil’s work.

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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 05 May 2025, 02:29:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'L')ucky,

I don't think you are taking Robotics and AI into your calculations...

Here's another flakey dreamscape to add to your portfolio inke
Mining Asteroids – Will Off-World Metals Collapse the Global Economy? – Robert Ian Reports
https://player.fm/series/financial-surv ... an-reports
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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 05 May 2025, 15:03:12

I don't think the math favors mining asteroids and then bringing the loot back down to the surface of the Earth. Heck, most of its value would be from being and remaining off-world. Its expensive to lift stuff, even to LEO, not to even guess at the value of some stuff if its in Lunar orbit. Still, I don't think it can make a cost recovery of having to lift extraction and smelting equipment from Earth.

How much would it cost to lower the orbit of measurable quantities of relatively rare materials, from the Asteroid belt down to Earth. Energy required is vast, and it certainly ain't free.

In the end, all kinds of sci-fi handwaving going on with this idea.
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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 05 May 2025, 15:06:13

How can universal basic income be sold to the right wing masses that dominate American politics? What kind of reward structure would have to be put in place to attract the ultra-lazy, ultra brilliant folks you want in command of the AI/bot armies of the world.
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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 06 May 2025, 02:37:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'I') don't think the math favors mining asteroids and then bringing the loot back down to the surface of the Earth.

Of course not, ergo, "flakey". I wouldn't seriously discuss it outside of the context of a SciFi movie script. But it's a good indicator of the desperation in the minds of some.
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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 20 May 2025, 19:16:21

Well here's one job vacancy that was made.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]NH's First Black Sheriff Jailed For Blowing Public Money On Travel With Women
A New Hampshire man who was heralded as the first black sheriff in the state's history was sentenced on Monday to 3 1/2 years in prison for squandering $19,000 of taxpayers' money on expensive getaways with multiple love interests -- and then lying to investigators about what he'd done. Tightly following the script we've seen so many times before, the disgraced "barrier-breaker" had previously said fellow Democrats who investigated his crimes were racists, and that his term in office was "rife with inequities." Despite repeatedly lying to the court and violating his bail conditions, his sentence was a fraction of what prosecutors sought.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/nhs ... avel-women

Thy just can't keep their fingers out of the honeypot.
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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 23 May 2025, 07:33:32

There are many ways to create jobs, you just have to be, creative.

A British merchant creating jobs for women in the Indian state of Sikkimm circa 1800's

Image

The point of this? It's the world of the Real as apposed to the world of the fantasy where everyone expects good jobs with good pay. There is little difference between the merchant above and Jeff Bezos with his slave wage warehouses, an environment where people are too afraid to go and take a piss for fear of a negative mark on the record. Bezos is a Billionaire because he has so many slaves working for him.
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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 23 May 2025, 19:33:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ') This sort of work is best done by people who grew up working, who are familiar with hard work so to speak. These jobs don't exactly jibe with the Cheetos and Instagram culture of today.
Image


Or prison colony descendants who can't do this OR then bolt it all together to create a car.

The Americans on the other hand?

Image
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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 25 May 2025, 23:16:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to anthropologist and historian Joseph A. Tainter, human societies became more complex in response to the problems they faced. Agrarian societies developed writing and math to keep track of debts, trade, laws and contracts; giving rise to a new class of non-productive workers (scribes). At first this and similar increments in social complexity provided a huge net benefit to the community at a relatively modest cost. Then as civilizations grew larger and larger, more and more non-productive roles had to be added to handle the exponentially increasing number of issues — up to the point where the appointment of the next batch of bureaucrats costed more than the benefits they provided (1). After a society had run into the issue of diminishing returns, however, experiencing a large bout of involuntary simplification was only a question of time.


Image

The Two Achilles Heels of Complex Systems

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')i]Tight coupling and limits to human comprehension
Interestingly enough, it’s no different with today’s modern societies and with the systems these societies operate. Perhaps the best example is the electric grid itself. With millions of users, thousands of nodes (substations) and power plants on top of continent wide distribution networks, electric grids are one of the most complex systems a civilization can possibly come up with (strictly after tax laws, of course). The question thus poses itself: is there a limit to the grid’s complexity? What can be done to avoid “a large bout of involuntary simplification”...
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/ ... dium=email

A good article about the system including a section on oil and oil shocks, but for the present moment just consider the millions of useless bullshit jobs that have grown up around this system. Millions of retail employees who can't even do simple math. legions of lawyers whose sole job it is to disrupt the system and re-distribute the wealth it creates. Hoards of brainless traffic controllers holding stop and go signs, and innumerable people cleaning other people's homes, mowing their lawns, cutting their hair, and washing their dogs. How much intelligence does it take to wash a dog? How much value does this add to the Globe?

These and more constitute the bulk of US jobs. Even the Engineer class, half of them transition into sales and within a decade can't even repair a lawn mower let alone perform in the profession they were trained for. Add all the lower management, middle management and 95% of government employees. Even the cops are a drain on the system, have been throughout all time. But in past times their numbers were few, now they are legion. Add in most of the military expenditures too. Nearly all these jobs are supported by oil and without it they go like dew on a summer's day. many have calculated the real unemployment rate currently at over 25% and I'd believe it too.

Free handouts of food have kept 40 million or so quiet in their poverty, a big change from the last major depression. But what happens as the oil goes, what real jobs are there for people in a nation deconstructing? Farming comes to mind, slaving on corporate farms, a far cry from the little owner operated farms that employed 30% of the nation a century ago.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n 1790, 90% of the U.S. workforce was farmers. Today, only 1% of our population grows food for the other 99%... Perhaps one of the greatest turning points in American agriculture, was the invention of the horse-drawn reaper in 1831 by Cyrus McCormick, the Father of Modern Agriculture. This piece of equipment allowed for more land to be worked by one person, ultimately increasing farm income and increasing the standard of living for farming families... Come 1920, farmers made up 27% of the labor force, there were 6.4 million farms, and they averaged 148 acres apiece. At this time, agricultural exports made up $1.94 billion per year and were 42% of all exports.
https://m.farms.com/news/the-history-of ... 81954.aspx

So by the 1920's technology had increased yields and allowed many to go off and get jobs elsewhere, but that basic mechanical technology had reached it's limits as all tech does. What is not mentioned, and what was also happening here, was the introduction of coal powered trains and ships that allowed the produce to be moved vast distances at low cost. The industrial revolution. Then once oil and nat gas came into play huge diesel powered plows and harvesters and semi-trailer trucks combined with powerful fertilizers and pesticides, and powered irrigation, freed up nearly all the labor off farms. The descendants of these are they that now wash our dogs and serve us burgers and litigate our divorces. Useless BS jobs basically.

So the big Q is, what will all their descendants be doing in 40 or 50 years? Back grubbing in the dirt I expect. That is if they want to eat.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 29 May 2025, 11:49:14

Agree with you on the unemployment rate, its BS the way they calculate it. That's why I'm a follower of the EMRATIO chart instead; what percentage of the population is working, and it sure as heck isn't 95% or whatever one might assume from this fiction they call an unemployment rate.

Currently:
EMRATIO shows 60% working,
EMRATIO for 25-54 yr olds shows 80%.

So, yeah, a 25% or a bit higher actual unemployment rate is perfectly realistic for the condition our kids are running into.
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Re: US Jobs

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 29 May 2025, 19:20:23

It's getting bad AgenR, here too but we paper it over it with lavish social security payments for all, like the US in the 1960's. there is another side of the story though.

The Middle Class Is Collapsing: Nearly 1 In 4 Americans Is Now "Functionally Unemployed"

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o you ever feel like you are “functionally unemployed”? If so, you are definitely not alone. There are lots of people out there that cannot pay the bills each month even though they have jobs. In fact, there are lots of people out there that literally cannot afford to put a roof over their heads even though they are employed. Yes, there are many hard working Americans that are now living in their vehicles or in “tent communities” because that is all they can afford. In recent years, the cost of living has been rising much faster than paychecks have, and so now a substantial percentage of the population is living in a state of constant financial stress. The middle class has been collapsing all around us, and we are witnessing an extraordinary amount of economic suffering all over the country right now.
https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/the ... nemployed/

it's a doom n Gloom story I saw on my news aggregator, all the alternate media is now doomish, but it's not like they are projecting BS, they are just reporting the facts on the ground. The mainstream media's lies just get bolder and bolder every year as they seek to cover up the collapse of living standards. You know there was a time when a lot of people bought cars for cash, if they withdrew credit (Debt) now they wouldn't sell hardly a single car. it's the only thing keeping the remaining middle class in the game. A friend of mine called last night, hadn't heard from him in 2 years. He's retired now from a good executive job and loving it, but he still carries hundreds of thousands in debt, most of it on the home mortgage. When he wants a new car or boat he just adds it too the mortgage and the banks are only too happy. It will end in tears I've no doubt.
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