[theluckycountry]

btc is still wandering well below it's last top, the 3-month chart quite a waterfall. Word on the subs is this "Bull run" is over and it's a 2~3 year wait for the next leg. That's as far as analysis goes with these coins. I've never believed the theory myself, simply because there is nothing fundamental behind it! More of a coincidence I'd say. Runups and peaks triggered by tech stock booms and the emigration of millions of wealthy Chinese sneaking money out of their country.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'O')h look!
Someone left the door open.

[theluckycountry]

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')img]https://avatars.mds.yandex.net/i?id=bd530d0bfbdd94250669195a6feedb2bfa622b3f-6160767-images-thumbs&n=13[/img]

[theluckycountry]

BTC continues it downward spiral, despite Trump's promises, despite Michael Saylor's bleating, despite the king of oozwhatastan saying he's all in bc. The usual hype triggers are not working anymore. Not that they ever did, they were just coincidental with the insane gambling habits of a nation of weary reprobates. Much like the "dog culture" that has eaten away the sanity of half the households in America and elsewhere btc has reached maximum saturation. Everyone who wanted one has one now and the rest are not interested.

Who would want to lay their head on a lounge a dog had been wiping it's arse all over? Obviously those that put fur baby emotions ahead of practical hygiene. Who would kiss a dog other than someone who wanted to kiss another dog's arse, because that's where that mouth has likely been. Bitcoin? The same emotions in a way, people following each other in a herd, caught up in a new culture and throwing rational thought to the wind. Of course it's not just these two, our modern culture is obsessed with all manner of insane practices. You could write a book on it and I assume some have. Our job though is to step back and take a good hard look in the light of day, make rational decisions for our future based on reality, not emotion.

It's one reason why many of us who have tried a few drugs in our youth drew the line at heroin. That's a drug that can easily destroy your future, so I'll stay clear we said. Likewise pouring good money after bad into a dubious investment scheme never ends well. I have bought Gold, and Silver, and as I wrote above, Platinum. I never bought the later in any serious way because I doubted it had a future return like the former two metals. It had no history, no reliable track record and that is very important when it comes to where you put your life savings. 20 odd years of subsequent history has proven that out! My original investment there has probably lost 50% or more in inflationary terms. But what the hell, at least I have a couple of coins made of pure Platinum, nice shiny rocks as some would say, a little amount of the rarest precious metal on Earth.

[theluckycountry]

keep posting Adam, I can't read what you say but all the visitors can, and it's ongoing proof of how screwed in the head the average EV owner is there days

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'k')eep posting Adam.....

[theluckycountry]

It seems Gold has done a big skyrocket, at least in $US terms. Of course it's just playing catchup with the teeth clenching inflation the poorer classes (the adam's family) have had to contend with. Anyone notice the Oil price? WTI, $60. Now that's getting cheap!

https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
From 1980 until 2004 the oil price was content to sit around $30 bbl. But as the peak of conventional oil approached it began to climb, and climb it did, right up to near $150. This was inflation driven too as the World's banks began an unprecedented money creation excursion to paper over the collapse of the IT bubble. A recession was in order, but instead they created a housing bubble, which was much greater than the money frittered in the IT bubble.

The Bank of England's Governor came out in the media and said just that, that they'd lowered interest rates precipitously to forestall a recession with the full knowledge they were creating the property bubble. He didn't care of course, nor did Greenspan or our own Governor Ian Mc Farlaine because they were all planning to retire from office before it blew up. The BOE Governor's comments were made around 2010, well after he had retired.

But going back to the oil chart we see it confirms what the prescient peak oiler Ken Deffeyes said back in the day. That the price of oil will rise markedly, but that we should expect high volatility, which the 25 years since 2005 has proved was true. That runup to $150 was blamed on "oil speculators" and naturally the idiots all believed it. As soon as the price dropped again the brainless crawled out of the woodwork and claimed peak oil was a myth, as they still do. Swallowing every new lie put forward some began to claim there have been "many peaks". But wisdom is justified by her children and the World's economy is indeed following the path predicted, it's getting poorer and poorer as the oil we used to build it becomes less and less each year. I'm talking about Real oil now, not Oil equivalents used to make plastic bags, but oil used to make gasoline and diesel and jet fuel etc. Much of which is currently being wasted in America to extract shale oil and Gas. Stupidity.

What does this have to do with Bitcoin? Bitcoin was touted as a safe haven in times of war and economic distress, but it's proven to be neither. Most people bought it a high price, if they're lucky their up 100%, OR 400% IF THEY ARE REALLY LUCKY. But many are not and many are under water. No one that bought Gold is underwater, far from it.



BTC is a crap shoot, a bubble that's fate is tied to stocks, the correlation is almost identical. It's a fashion like pebble driveways and dogs that fit in a handbag. For all the rantings by the maximalists it has not been accepted by the general public nor by governments or institutions, aside from a tiny minority, always governments on the verge of bankruptcy. Like El Salvador, an absolute $hithole, a nothing nation but because they made it legal tender the BTC-heads all jumped on board as though it was the beginning of a trend and soon all governments would be following suit

Bitcoiners are quiet now, as they always are in a slump. Biding their time until the next big up leg when they'll be back with a fist full of I told You so's. But what if it doesn't come back? What if it's game over and it's just traded back and forward like currently? We know why it boomed before, because a lot of "New buyers" flooded the market and created bull runs. That is the only way it goes up from here, millions of cashed up people deciding to gamble.

The DOW had it's last low in Sep 2022 @ 28,700.
The last BTC low was back in Nov 2022 @ $15,700

In early December and then late January this year the DOW had two almost identical tops and it's been all downhill since then. Likewise BTC had two near identical tops, Dec and Jan, and likewise, it's been all downhill since then. You want to put your faith in BTC? Well you're putting it in the stock market by proxy so you better hope were not falling into a recession, or God forbid, a mirror of the 1930's depression. But this time with no abundant cheap oil to pull us out of it...

Now is not the time to be seeking returns on your investments, it's the time to be seeking "The Return of" your investments.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')But this time with no abundant cheap oil to pull us out of it...

[theluckycountry]

Much WOW! BTC Skyrockets from $75k to 85k. Is this the big Launch? Is this the next leg up???
Between April-3 and April-7 it dropped $13k, that wouldn't have felt nice for a hodler... especially those with margin loans. How does this sort of instability, and it clearly is just that. How does it effect the mental outlook of the hodlers? Imagine if your car got 35mpg one week and 25mpg the next, how would that make you feel. Or imagine your workmates were all friendly to you one week and the next they shunned you?

Personally I couldn't even imagine having a couple of hundred grand invested in something that was as volatile, that could collapse 70% and more on a regular basis as crypto has done since it's inception. It would be like owning a home that crashed in price for years on end then boomed, then crashed again. The first collapse lasted 3 years, that's a long time to wait if you want to access your savings. Hodlers will claim that the tokens always come back and will reach much much higher values. But three cycles during the end of a manic debt bubble, the greatest in history, is hardly what I would call conclusive proof. The conditions in the Global world of finance are actually near identical to those on the cusp of the Great Depression, the current tariff wars now beginning were one of the key factors in making the 1930's as disastrous as they were.

It's why Warren Buffett and many others have sold such large volumes of stocks and are sitting on cash. Cash is King! But only in times of economic collapse. Sell your shares and sit on cash in a time of high inflation? That's insane, unless you know something the average man doesn't. There was a Dow top a few months back 45,000. Stupid valuation considering. Today it's 40,000, and a week or two back it was 37.5. Any money Buffett lost due to currency devaluation has been more than made up for by these falls and the interest he has earned. I suppose he still has tax obligations but he'll be wise enough to minimize that before the bill comes due. He and Gates were big sellers leading up to the GFC as well but that was another era, that wasn't the end-game.

The Great Depression era was actually America's coming out party, it was preparing to take over from the British empire, take the reserve currency status from them along with all the other functions of the dominant empire. But that was 100 years ago and America has run it's course. A new empire is sitting in the wings ready to back it's bid for global control of the currency the same way the US did. Massive Gold reserves. But before that happens we have to clear the books of a lot of this unpayable debt and that is what tariffs and depressions do. They collapse the business cycle, companies go broke and land prices plummet, ownership changes hands at firesales. And that is why you want cash, or tier-1 cash equivalents. Crytpo is not such, it's stocks basically, as proven by it's mirroring of the stock market ups and downs. Even it's first big top in Jan 2018 coincided with a Dow top.

Crypto owners are more likely to be psychopaths, narcissists, sadists
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you’ve ever suspected that your cryptocurrency-obsessed friend might be a psychopath, you may be on to something. Digital-asset holders tend to exhibit higher levels of “dark” personality traits such as narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism, according to a recent academic paper by researchers at the University of Toronto and the University of Miami published in the journal PLOS One.

[theluckycountry]

A forgotten train wreck.

RDDT. Ever heard of it? It's redditcoin, just one of the thousands that popped up to cash in on the crypto craze back in the day. It was around in 2015, selling at 0.000011. Then in January 2018 spiked to 0.03, the all time high! It's hard to get your head around these microscopic fractions, what I like do is multiply them by some huge number and that brings them into perspective. Multiplying the figures above by one hundred thousand gives a 2015 price of one cent. The 2018 top becomes $3000. Imagine that! One dollar became $300,000 overnight. Today it's back in the 0.0000's, and has a market cap of 1.5 million bucks. Nothing.

Of course you had to be quick back in 2018, you only had a week or two to get out with your gains.
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/reddcoin
Too bad if you were on a months' holiday in a remote place. Did a lot of people make a lot of money back in 2018? You betcha, but only the sellers, not the buyers. Those buyers are probably still hodling RDDT (Bad acronym that).

What does this show? It shows a recurring truth that in nearly all markets once an instrument has an insane runup top, it's the end. RDDT made another bubble top but nothing like the first. Microsoft shares participated in the dotcom bubble but never went hyperbolic. From January 1997 to January 2000 they rose from $10 to $57, now they are $370 odd and poised for a collapse no doubt, along with all else in the next market correction. I said nearly all markets because commodity markets, Uranium, Oil, etc, can have Big run-ups and still come back to make greater tops, though decades later typically.

Now counter to what the deranged Michael Saylor says, crypto is not a commodity. It's not even money, it's simply a form of currency, but one limited to those that believe in it. And that is the basis of all currencies, they have to be believed in, people need to have faith in them or else they wouldn't function as currencies of exchange in the first place. It's why the $US is such a good currency, everyone believes in it, and I mean everyone! Sure they may hate it, they may realize it's losing value, but no one is out burning piles of it are they. Everyone knows you can buy stuff with it, that's a 100% certainty and that is why everyone believes in it, for Today and for the near term future at least.

Those that believe in crypto believe the same thing, those that don't believe in it, don't because they have no confidence, no faith, that it will be worth much in the future. They have seen too many RDDT's come and go, and BTC, though it's held up well, is thrown out with the same bathwater as all the rest. I'm speaking of the general public here. Sure they may dabble in it, like as when one buys some lottery tickets, but the faith doesn't exist for a more substantial buying. And unfortunately for btc, that is what drives its runup in price, millions of new people (hodlers) rushing into the market and driving up the price. For that to change something fundamental would have to change, something like the US federal government making it legal tender. Not likely.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ashington, DC; March 20, 2025 - Total US retirement assets were $44.1 trillion as of December 31, 2024
Assets in (IRAs) $17.0 trillion
Defined contribution plan assets were $12.4 trillion
Government defined benefit plans $8.9 trillion

[theluckycountry]

Now where's inke? Should be coming out of the woodwork soon...

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'N')ow where's inke? Should be coming out of the woodwork soon...

[theluckycountry]

I'll buy it when i have a personal robot that washes my car and cleans the shower.
Never in other words.

[theluckycountry]

ooo, they're jumping up and down on the dogecoin sub, 25-cents now but they are a lot more sanguine than the coinbugs over on the BC sub. There they are Bear bashing, a bit soon for that I would suggest. Here's my favorite meme

People who bought at $108k last year


One thing of note though is the comment count, even on the very Bullish threads they mass only 40 or 140 comments (a 3 day old one) not much activity for a sub with 8 million members?

the comments themselves are pretty infantile too, like you'd expect from a bunch of kids in a schoolyard, or a bunch of Millennials on a reddit sub...
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/commen ... last_year/

But as goes the stock market, so goes the crypto market, why these "investors" never broach that aspect is interesting? Are they afraid to connect those dots, are they just so caught up in the memes they can't think clearly? I think it's more fundamental than that myself. Crypto aficionados have always been from the tech-head community, very smart people, in their field. But not necessarily smart in unrelated fields like finance and investment. I think they just disregard anything they don't understand, no matter how basic it is.

I have drawn the parallels between the stock and crypto marks here on numerous occasions but no one has ever commented on it. It's like it doesn't exist, and all that exists is Rockets to the moon and dreams of owning Lambos. Even at today's prices the cryptos (which all follow each other up and Down) are way behind in inflation adjusted terms from former peaks. To compare the current price of Ethereum say to it's 2022 price where it was 50% lower is stupid without factoring in the rabid inflation of those intervening years. This inflation is hard to numerically quantify given the government measures to hide it but we have all experienced it in food and autos and houses, electricity too! Any boasting about increases in asset prices must take this into account.

Highest inflation rates since the 1980's https://www.pgpf.org/article/what-is-in ... it-matter/

Here is a thread from a year ago cataloguing some of the food hikes
https://www.reddit.com/r/povertyfinance ... m_2022_to/

Now here is an example of an inflation tracking asset. No mucking around, no reliance of stockmarket booms, no reliance on hopium and lame memes to quieten the nerves of the hodlers. You're either a serious investor or you a gambler on a roller-coaster. I wouldn't want the mental stress myself...

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I')'ll buy it when i have a personal robot that washes my car and cleans the shower.
Never in other words.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')b]A forgotten train wreck.
BTC rests on faith, the faith of the faithful that it will rise yet again, going up in price by hundreds of thousands, into the millions eventually, because... it always goes up. But everything that goes up, eventually comes down, sometimes sooner, sometimes later. Even staunch old Gold proves this, it's 1980 bubble blew out and it took 20 years before it began to rise again. But that was ok from a historical perspective since it settled out at US$200, far above the price of $35 from 1970. Now Gold is way way up again but it's been 45 years since it settled at $200 and we have seen a Hell of a lot of inflation since then. How much does it cost to buy a quality tailored suit and a pair of good shoes today? That is a comparative measure of the cost of an ounce of Gold with records going back to Rome 2000 years ago.

Today
Quality Suit: $2000~$3000
Quality Shoes and belt: $400~$1000

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I')'ll buy it when i have a personal robot that washes my car and cleans the shower.
Never in other words.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Now here is an example of an inflation tracking asset.

[theluckycountry]

When was the BC low of 75k? It was April 8
When was the Dow low of 38k? It was April 21

Same ol story, over and over. Dow is 42k now, still below it's two peaks of Dec-24 and Jan-25
Same with BitDow, two peaks in Dec and January. Too bad inke's on the ignore list now, I could ask him/her/them/they to explain it, but I've asked that before and never got an answer.

It's the only fundamental of crypto. It's the only think you can count on. Know what it reminds me of? CDOs from before the GFC (global financial Collapse) I know in the US they call it something else, the US always has to go another way from the rest of the World. Warren Buffett's Berkshire is well out of the markets now and sitting on 350 odd Billion in cash. I assume his private holding are even more liquid. He knows what's coming, so do I. I could be wrong but he never is


Going your own way...