by theluckycountry » Wed 26 Feb 2025, 18:24:38
Here is one engineer still willing to speak out
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..Problem is, that there will be no next time. The cheap and easy-to-get part of Earth’s vast resource base is running dangerously low in non-western states as well. You see, this entire modern civilization with its supermarkets, cars, planes, computers, solar panels, 24/7 electricity and running water was all built on the extraction of non-renewable resources. All mined, transported and processed with fossil fuels — another set of non-renewable resources. And now that crude oil extraction, the key source of liquid fuels powering it all, is on a bumpy plateau since 2015 (with an absolute peak in daily output reached in 2018 already), there is not much hope for a return to real economic growth either.
Considering that world population has increased by 540 million since that peak, and that the energy cost of getting the same amount of oil just keeps rising with every passing year, today’s crude oil production figures actually means much less petroleum products per capita than in 2018. Yes, there might be plenty more stuff underground… But who cares, when extracting all of it turns out to be totally uneconomic? Why? How could the world beset by a rapidly shrinking per capita consumption, increasing indebtedness and rising inflation be able to afford more fuel at a much higher cost?
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/ ... gs-to-comeNaturally the author references the peak of conventional and non-conventional oil, so be it, it hardly matters in the scheme of things. I stick with the conventional peak because that is when the wheels fell off the global economy, it was then (and before) that one really needed to be making the lifestyle changes in preparation for the collapse that we are now moving into. The $147 bbl price crippled nations and the subsequent money printing has simply pushed the problem off a few years into the future. But only for us in the wealthy West. If your an average citizen in the former developing World you're already screwed, diving is a distant memory and putting food on the table is your main concern today. Driving may not have declined all that much in the West, but I assure it has across much of South America, the sub-Asian continent and in Africa.
I'm forever grateful for this obfuscation around PeakOil though, as I am for the money printing and the delusions held by the masses. In 2018 when I made the move from the city, rural town prices were half what they are now. The large worthless bush block of undeveloped land I had in another region was still highly valued (for subdivision) and I was able to get a good price for it too. Likewise the price of Gold and silver was under half what it is now. Gold was aussie $1600, now it's $4600 and Silver was $22, now it's $50. Without the general ignorance of the public I would never have been able to buy as much as I did or get the home I now have debt free. My continuing hope is that these masses will continue to borrow and never wake up because they are the ones keeping the wheels turning. It is their continual borrowing that provides a lot the taxes that guarantee good services, smooth roads, reliable utilities.
My hat is off for the wage slave, for the debt slave, for they have built this amazing world we now enjoy.
Have a look at this line chart, average miles driven across european nations. Germany Austria and Spain maintained well over the past two decades, Spain a tourist mecca, Germany an industrial powerhouse, and Austria, who knows? But all the rest began a decline around 2004, in the face of rising Gas prices I'd say. After 2007~8 it becomes quite obvious.
https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/publication ... y-car.html
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.