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Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 28 Dec 2024, 12:10:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Well we've already covered that in the video above :lol: :lol: :lol:

Videos? You mean how children communicate because dem wordz be hardz?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 28 Dec 2024, 15:03:03

The collapse is inevitable. Only a fool would think otherwise


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We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 28 Dec 2024, 15:40:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')he collapse is inevitable. Only a fool would think otherwise


Yes. We know. Were you too busy digging ditches to notice that the world was supposed to end with Y2K? Or perhaps you missed peak oil claimed in 1990? That was a real hum dinger.

<yawn>

While lacking the ability to learn is exactly what is expected of a high school dropout, shouldn't even THOSE folks understand the entire boy who cried wolf routine? Sure...the wolf ends up coming...and the death of this planet is a given, as after all the Sun is getting lighter every day. But no reason to get all excited about the stuff that is far less certain, or final along the way.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 29 Dec 2024, 05:12:54

The last one to leave this forum please remember to put Adam_B out and turn off the lights.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 29 Dec 2024, 13:27:45

I think a lot of the issue of collapse, and "the end" of things is our extremely poor perception of time, lifespan individual and species wide... We've only been agriculturally civilized for a few hundred generations, and our species is a great deal younger than just a full million years. We worry, on the other hand, about things like peak oil only in the sense of whether or not they occur in our individual life span. Sure things may get harder in the "West" as food and fuel gradually become more dear; but the core of the US population is not going to go hungry, nor freeze to death en masse any time soon; not in my lifetime, and probably not even in the lifetime of my kid. That doesn't mean it is something irrelevant, especially considering that its dependent on long term capacity and utilization; as opposed to what might happen next year that might be interesting.

I'll miss forums like these when they finally go... I hate that everything's being sucked up into large accumulators such as reddit and twitter.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 29 Dec 2024, 18:02:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'I')'ll miss forums like these when they finally go... I hate that everything's being sucked up into large accumulators such as reddit and twitter.

It's an interesting dynamic isn't it AgentR. People rail about the big accumulators taking over but they wouldn't be if people weren't flocking to them. People have just been trained to do that, like this business of "Not being negative" about anything, that is unless the TV tells you to be negative. On a motorcycle forum I frequent you can't say anything negative about any motorcycles, like point out obvious reliability issues. Some apologist will chime in saying that "everything" has it's teething problems and others will come in and back them up. Even for tragic bikes like the KTM, the company now going bankrupt. Why did it go bankrupt? Because it made unreliable bikes naturally :roll:

This has been going on for decades, especially with the race issues. Some group loots inner city stores in broad daylight and it's all pushed under the rug because they were of a race that everyone is now afraid to point the finger at. No one calls a spade a spade anymore, unless they are playing poker. Frankly I'm sick of it! Sick of spineless men masquerading as real men while they take all their orders from their wife and children.

I know one modern man in his forties, that actually Gives the orders, and his family is happy, prosperous and content. He's no standoff dictator either, last week he dyed his teenage daughter's hair because the mother can't handle it. He'll do what it takes to keep the family happy but won't put up with any frivolous spending or behavior and tells the kids they can get credit cards if the want, after they move out of the family home.

I never signed up for facebook or X, or any of them. I was a redditor years ago but threw that in the bin after a while too. Mindless people following each other in a herd.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 30 Dec 2024, 03:46:47

Americans are dying from cold weather at more than twice the rate they did two decades ago.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he authors of the letter, affiliated with Boston’s Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School, and Brigham and Women’s Hospital, used data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to analyze death certificates.

The letter highlights a long-term trend of increase in the rate of cold-related deaths, more than doubling from 0.44 per 100,000 people in 1999 to 0.92 per 100,000 people in 2022.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/a ... 06%20years.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/co ... =ZeroHedge

It's a well recorded trend in Britain, now it's viral in the US. What's the cause? High energy costs of course, people simply can't afford to heat homes like they used to. Now imagine the populations of these northern countries with no fossil fuels at all, the death toll would be off the charts. It's not like they can simply go back to burning wood like in the days of old, the population is too great and the trees are simply not there in the numbers they used to be 300 years ago. Even in regions with lots of forests most people live either in cities or suburbs, they can't just go out the back door and start chopping down trees or collecting fallen wood. It's a dilemma alright.

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We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 30 Dec 2024, 06:35:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')b]Americans are dying from cold weather at more than twice the rate they did two decades ago.


0.92 per 100k is still a very small number compared to what it would be in collapse. I'd expect a high percentage of that 0.92 is also from exposure from homelessness and substance abuse, though I couldn't begin to guess where to find that sort of statistic...

Collapse will have *lots* of people dying in their residence from being unable to afford the price of energy needed to heat their home. Heck, our little mini-event a few years ago with the cold in Texas killed several people in their homes as they lost power or decided to risk going without due to high prices; so the pattern exists, we just aren't particularly close to collapse just yet.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 30 Dec 2024, 11:21:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', ' ')collapse


collapse, collapse, collapse. That's all I hear all the time.
Can you define what "collapse" means? Is collapse nothing but change? Is it different from change? How?
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 30 Dec 2024, 13:50:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', ' ')collapse


collapse, collapse, collapse. That's all I hear all the time.
Can you define what "collapse" means? Is collapse nothing but change? Is it different from change? How?


Because the people claiming it NOW forgot all the times they claimed it BEFORE...selective memory and all.

I wonder what matt Savinar would say if you tracked him down nowadays, after his palm reading gig went belly up, and he took on substitute teaching jobs?

Would he say "collapse" has happened because he couldn't be bothered to use his law degree back when it would have been far more productive than leading his religious zealots headlong into oil and gas ignorance with such fervor?

At the end of the day, who can say, the value collapse or peak oil or whatever other hallucinated Planet X nonsense that was so popular 15 years ago. The Mayan Calendar!

In a land ruled by, and soon to be ruled again by, dementia addled geriatrics, and most of us not exactly being on the young side ourselves, strikes me that finishing out the great game in reasonable form and comfort is highly likely for all the "collapses" that have come and gone just since the most recent peak oil era (1990-2010).
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 30 Dec 2024, 20:26:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', ' ')collapse


collapse, collapse, collapse. That's all I hear all the time.
Can you define what "collapse" means? Is collapse nothing but change? Is it different from change? How?


Yes. Collapse, at least to me, is relatively simple. Food rots in the fields. When that happens large scale, then you have collapse.

So as long as they can keep the inflationary track running, and the Fed is good on liquidity (aka printing), we can keep that wolf at bay.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 30 Dec 2024, 20:39:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', ' ')collapse


collapse, collapse, collapse. That's all I hear all the time.
Can you define what "collapse" means? Is collapse nothing but change? Is it different from change? How?


Yes. Collapse, at least to me, is relatively simple. Food rots in the fields. When that happens large scale, then you have collapse.


That's a good one. I think it needs to go a little beyond riots in the fields though, we need rich folks being hauled out of their houses as they are looted for anything of value that can be sold for food, water, necessities.
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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 30 Dec 2024, 21:01:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')0.92 per 100k is still a very small number compared to what it would be in collapse... Collapse will have *lots* of people dying in their residence from being unable to afford the price of energy needed to heat their home... so the pattern exists, we just aren't particularly close to collapse just yet.

You are quite correct, but they don't ring a bell when collapse starts in earnest. And they certainly don't give you a couple of years warning. Just like the peak of conventional oil. That was thrashed out here decades ago and people had the choice to make preparations or await events and we are in the same position. Then your choice was to believe in business or usual and (they'll think of something) or make other plans. As the oil price rose business as usual was a housing crash and the global financial collapse.

What will be the consequences this time? Those in cold climes living with a state forest over their back fence will do quite well I suspect but there are not a lot of those properties on the market. If people wait until it's obvious they won't get those properties for love nor money. Like the home I bought up here in the hills, prices have doubled in 4 years! A bubble, in a rural town? Hardly. People are fleeing the cities of Australia for rural living because of the inconvenience of the Covid lockdowns and for many other issues. One day I fully believe a similar home on a similar block will be worth more here than in the city suburbs, once it becomes obvious we are running out of energy to power those suburbs.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 30 Dec 2024, 21:15:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', 'c')ollapse, collapse, collapse. That's all I hear all the time.
Can you define what "collapse" means? Is collapse nothing but change? Is it different from change? How?


It's nothing but change, change for the worse. It can happen slow, like we see now with crime escalating, roads degrading, people so in debt they can't afford nutritious foods and have to rely on cheap boxed foods. When was the last time you cooked steak at home? Many people there can never afford it.

Or collapse can be fast, like Cuba when the USSR collapsed. It can start of slow, then get fast. You don't need a crystal ball either because there are literally hundred of civilizations in the history books that no longer exist. They didn't transcend their humanity to live out among the stars either, they simply collapsed, ran out of food, fresh water, slaves or Gold and Silver to pay their way. Among there ruins many people lived on but hand to mouth, no clean canals to drink from, no markets to shop at, no bazaars with herbs and spices and wares from the lands over beyond the sun rise. No more silk roads, no more merchant fleets.

Interestingly in many historical accounts you can read about the wealth elite fleeing the cities for defended rural estates lol. Just like Zuckerberg and many others are setting up right now. Do you think Elon Muck will be driving around Texas if the Southern peoples invade it in mass? Hell no, he'll be on a Caribbean Island with Donald Trump and Sir Richard Branson. Will it be soon? Ask Zuckerberg what he thinks.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 30 Dec 2024, 21:27:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'S')o as long as they can keep the inflationary track running, and the Fed is good on liquidity (aka printing), we can keep that wolf at bay.

No. As long as they can keep selling the debt to the world in exchange for the food and energy and appliances you need, the wolf will kept at bay. But as we see, that shell game is coming to an end. And the tariffs won't bring in Canadian and Saudi oil, they won't bring in the food. There is obviously a correlation between Debt and Collapse, the US began it's collapse in the 1970's, right when your conventional oil peaked and you had to start buying oil from overseas. A nation is either growing or collapsing economically and it all has to do with energy.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 30 Dec 2024, 21:39:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'b')ecause there are literally hundred of civilizations in the history books that no longer exist.


so collapse is kind of normal. Why are you making such a big deal about it then? Each time something collapses, it's an opportunity for the swift, clever, resilient and ruthless to take over and bloom. Collapse happens on all levels with people going bankrupt, with businesses being swallowed, towns and cities being deserted, and civilizations being overrun by opportunistic 3rd world invaders and/or armies. And sometimes collapse is so slow, it's a multi-generational change. Arguably the West peaked in the late 1800's and it has been downhill ever since. Slow and steady. It's almost not worth holding your breath over it.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 31 Dec 2024, 08:59:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'b')ecause there are literally hundred of civilizations in the history books that no longer exist.

so collapse is kind of normal. Why are you making such a big deal about it then? Each time something collapses, it's an opportunity for the swift, clever, resilient and ruthless to take over and bloom. Collapse happens on all levels with people going bankrupt... Slow and steady. It's almost not worth holding your breath over it.

For someone who asked bewilderingly "what is collapse" you suddenly have a strong opinion on what it's all about. I suggest that perhaps you are afraid of the concept, you seem to be telling yourself little stories about how it can't possibly happen to you. We call that whistling past the graveyard. As for it being a time of opportunity, well yes, if you're a violent criminal or dictator, or a church that wants to run an inquisition and murder a few million people. But for the average person the collapse of civilization is a tragic affair.

You could say collapse takes a while to play out but that's not strictly speaking the actual "collapse" itself. As many authors point out, civilizations go through a long period of "Decline" and then collapse, the collapse typically occurring over the space of 10 years or less. With your timeline of the West peaking in the late 1800's that puts us at the end of 140 odd years of decline. Sounds about right to me. The only people who are truly afraid of collapse are those unprepared. But that's most people today, they are oblivious of anything of importance, they will find out when they wake up to the silence of their electrical devices and a tumult in the street outside.

The whole premise of this thread "Collapse won't happen" is an exercise in whistling past the graveyard. It's like saying the Earth will never be struck by another large Asteroid. Some people prepare for the "Big One" along the San Andreas Fault, others get the hell out and live someplace far away, but the vast majority in cities like San Francisco simply ignore the threat. They go to work day by day in multi-story buildings and think nothing of it. They simply can't face reality, they are sheep, lemmings running in a pack towards a cliff. Will that fault rupture again? Nothing surer and it's long overdue. Will American civilization collapse? Nothing surer and we're a lot closer than we were 50 years ago.

What is collapse? The loss of political control over a nation basically. Syria collapsed, Mexico collapsed, and when it happens life on the ground is very dangerous.


Acapulco 1950's

Image


Acapulco 2000's

Image
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 31 Dec 2024, 09:43:29

250 Years, 10 human generations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hUS0Q_lzNA
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 31 Dec 2024, 16:19:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')For someone who asked bewilderingly "what is collapse" you suddenly have a strong opinion on what it's all about.


actually not. I know that collapse is just normal part of life. But what is it exactly? I'm not so sure. And I'm even less sure if it's always negative. Some are to lose, some are to gain.

Eastern germany collapsed practically overnight. While the communist party drones lost, the majority of the populace gained.

What about the collapse of the english empire? The english enjoyed a rather good life even after the collapse. Arguably most of the newly independent colonies were better off, too.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') I suggest that perhaps you are afraid of the concept, you seem to be telling yourself little stories about how it can't possibly happen to you.

I'm longing for collapse of the rotten western woke shit. Yet, year after year I'm disappointed. I was promised collapse so many times by now, it ain't funny anymore. Do you know when collapse will finally show?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s for it being a time of opportunity, well yes, if you're a violent criminal or dictator, or a church that wants to run an inquisition and murder a few million people. But for the average person the collapse of civilization is a tragic affair.

What about all them eager types of eastern germany who finally freed from kommunism could start a successful business? The collapse wasn't so tragic for them, was it?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The only people who are truly afraid of collapse are those unprepared.

The ones afraid are the ones who have something to lose.
And the preppers, me seems. Or why are you prepping if not for being afraid?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') Will American civilization collapse? Nothing surer and we're a lot closer than we were 50 years ago.

Yes, but time matterss Are we 1 day, 1 year, 10 years, 100 years removed from collapse?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')What is collapse? The loss of political control over a nation basically. Syria collapsed, Mexico collapsed, and when it happens life on the ground is very dangerous.

But what if there's no loss of control? Just a change of system with a transition time of disturbance. Is that collapse, too?
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 31 Dec 2024, 17:16:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')For someone who asked bewilderingly "what is collapse" you suddenly have a strong opinion on what it's all about.


actually not. I know that collapse is just normal part of life. But what is it exactly? I'm not so sure. And I'm even less sure if it's always negative. Some are to lose, some are to gain.
Eastern germany collapsed practically overnight. While the communist party drones lost, the majority of the populace gained.
What about the collapse of the english empire? The english enjoyed a rather good life even after the collapse. Arguably most of the newly independent colonies were better off, too.


What you are looking at are the collapse of individual countries within the greater Christian Empire. The empire still remains though and those within it bounce back, or are carried back up lets say by the rest. England is such a case, so was East Germany. If you struggle with this concept of empire just look at the sanctions against Russia, all those participating are in this empire, all are allied. Russia is actually in this empire too but it's estranged, like the English and Spanish were estranged during that transition of power. Cuba is not nor is Mexico or Honduras therefore their collapses have been permanent. The only thing that has prevented them from collapsing into total anarchy is their ongoing connections with the greater world. In other words the Empire is exerting some control over them. Like it tried with Haiti, using it as a manufacturing base. Then trying to help when the earthquake hit. Now it's gone to hell in a hand-basket and I doubt the West does much business there. When a nation decides it's time to collapse there seems to be nothing to stop the process.

It's interesting how Empires can be defined by their religious beliefs, the Egyptians worshiped their Pharaohs, the Roman's a plethora of Greek gods, the Ottoman's allah and then the Roman catholic Empire of Spain and Portugal with it's dogma. The distinction between Catholic and Protestant was extreme but since it was the same God, the same basic belief concept, the Catholics were able to merge into what became the British and then American iterations of this Judaeo Christian Empire. Think of it as being like the Western and Eastern Roman Empires. Same roots but decidedly different cultures.

Here, when I talk of collapse, I talk of America and Australia and Europe and Canada etc all collapsing at once, which they are heading for if you open your eyes and look around. Some are more advanced in the decline stages but all share the common fate. We will collapse just as the Ottoman Empire did at the end of it's long decline, as Rome collapsed at the end of it's long decline. Often it just takes a tiny push, like when 100 Spanish conquistadors marched across South America and wrapped up that entire Empire, an Empire that was decadent, based on human sacrifice. It's easy at the end because the people of the empire are decadent and useless. It's all in the video I posted above.

Average shoppers 1950

Image

Image


Average shoppers 2020

Image

Image

Decadence is the last stage of decline, after that comes Collapse. Believe it of not but Australian supermarkets don't look like this, we are 20 or 30 years behind the US as far as decline is concerned.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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