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Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby mousepad » Sun 16 Feb 2025, 09:42:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'A')nother depression is coming and you had better be out of debt when it arrives or you'll have a millstone around your neck.

Not sure if that is true. The tool the feds use to fight depression is lower interest rates. If need be, to sub zero. If that doesn't help they pull the quantitative easing trick and if that doesn't help it's helicopter money to the peons.

All potentially causing severe inflation. And the winners are? The debtors, as their debt is inflated away.
As the US slowly corners itself into a debt nightmare, I expect very high inflation to be a real possibility.

Debt is not a problem in a depression. The problem is if you lose your income and can't service your debt no more. You want to make sure to have a recession proof job. Take on a big mortgage at super low interest rate, buy a big house, you can make a killing in a depression.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 16 Feb 2025, 16:34:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '.')..All potentially causing severe inflation. And the winners are? The debtors, as their debt is inflated away.
Debt is not a problem in a depression. The problem is if you lose your income and can't service your debt no more. You want to make sure to have a recession proof job. Take on a big mortgage at super low interest rate, buy a big house, you can make a killing in a depression.


I'm not talking about a "Recession" which is what we have seen repeated over and over since 1940, and which your plan addresses. I'm talking about an economic depression. In a recession all the actions you cited above are employed to bring things back to normal. It can only be achieved if there is still room to maneuver. If people can take on more debt and if the real economy is able to keep making and selling all the stuff that it has been. But at some point that becomes impossible, too much debt basically, and the elites running the banks and corporations know this. At that point it becomes more profitable for them to simply let the system collapse in a heap -Deflation- and then buy up land and mines and whatever they want at depressed prices. That's what happened in the last depression.

Hyper inflations where debt is inflated away are very very rare. And there are very few winners. What you are proposing is a situation where you have a good job and lock in a cheap interest rate and then the house goes way up in value. That was the German depression, a fluke, a one off. The rest of the world saw house prices fall, for up to 20 years. So even if you managed to pay off your house it was worth less than when you bought it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')arvard Business School
Using new data on market-based transactions we construct real estate price indexes for Manhattan between 1920 and 1939. During the 1920s prices reached their highest level in the third quarter of 1929 before falling by 67% at the end of 1932 and hovering around that value for most of the Great Depression. The value of high-end properties strongly co-moved with the stock market between 1929 and 1932. A typical property bought in 1920 would have retained only 56% of its initial value in nominal terms two decades later.
https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=41283

And it wasn't much better for the rest of the Nation (or Australia) Just think about it, tens of millions of people unemployed and losing their homes, what are the homes going to sell for? Less obviously, basic supply and demand. Own your own home outright and have savings enough to maintain it and a decent lifestyle for a decade and you're 100% safe. Plan your life around a "Job" and you may be very disappointed. Most jobs today are bullshit jobs, this is especially true of the higher paying white collar mouse pusher jobs. They will vanish like dew on a summer's morning. They are Oil Jobs, jobs that only exist because of the abundance of energy that underpins them. Go to india and see how much a datarat makes.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby mousepad » Sun 16 Feb 2025, 17:12:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')That's what happened in the last depression.

And it wasn't much better for the rest of the Nation (or Australia) Just think about it, tens of millions of people unemployed and losing their homes, what are the homes going to sell for.


EXACTLY !!!!

And that's why gov and the feds are scared shitless of deflations and they do ANYTHING, including distributing helicopter money to make sure there's no deflation. And that's why I think inflation is the name of the game, you ought to be prepared for.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby careinke » Sun 16 Feb 2025, 17:16:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'I')'m here giving you the Heads Up. Another GFC is coming, one that won't be papered over in six months. Another depression is coming and you had better be out of debt when it arrives or you'll have a millstone around your neck. Just put a couple of hundred thousand away in safe monetary instruments, Not the stock market, where most of your Superannuation is. Remember the GFC.


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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 16 Feb 2025, 20:18:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'A')nother depression is coming and you had better be out of debt when it arrives or you'll have a millstone around your neck.

Not sure if that is true. The tool the feds use to fight depression is lower interest rates. If need be, to sub zero. If that doesn't help they pull the quantitative easing trick and if that doesn't help it's helicopter money to the peons.

All potentially causing severe inflation.


I don't think we get "severe" inflation, the FED's tools are so very fast now compared to what they had in the Great Depression. Allows fine tuning between the deflationary pressure of the depression, with the inflationary pressure of printing/easing. Its just so very easy to put digital money on SNAP/EBT cards, and heck, even directly into IRS known checking accounts that have received or paid taxes from in previous years. They can print "just enough" to balance that deflation, so that everything is kept at a nice, neat 0-3% inflation rate.

Doesn't imply there won't be financial suffering of course, but the errors of the Great Depression will not be repeated. We'll have heretofore unknown errors!
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 17 Feb 2025, 04:21:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')
I don't think we get "severe" inflation, the FED's tools are so very fast now compared to what they had in the Great Depression. Allows fine tuning between the deflationary pressure of the depression,


There was nothing wrong with the Fed's tools in 1929, they just chose not to use them. They could have reflated the economy, by backing the banks and printing vast sums but they chose not to. They are a closed corporation, and their shares are owned by the major banks. What they do in the future will be dictated by what the banks want.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 17 Feb 2025, 12:49:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')
I don't think we get "severe" inflation, the FED's tools are so very fast now compared to what they had in the Great Depression.


Yeah, in normal circumstance I might agree with you. But once we enter energy constrained territory with the resulting shrinking economy my bets are on super inflation. Add in the wars that need to be fought once the gloves are off, and a populace trained to be dependent on wellfare with increasing budget deficits.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 17 Feb 2025, 14:21:54

At the moment if we throw $1 note every quarter of mile then combined American debt would take you to Alpha Centauri.
If a T. Rex which was alive 65 millions years ago got all American government debt in cash and decided to pay $1 for every minute of additional life, he would still be alive and much richer than Elon Musk.
So I think, there will be really BIG inflation in not very distant future.
Attempts to balance money supply to prevent some nasty outcome already resembles balancing pencil on its tip but soon enough will resemble balancing 2...5...8...20... pencils standing in tip on top manner one on another.
Good luck with that.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 17 Feb 2025, 14:38:00

It is interesting how the information stage has shifted. PeakOil used to have a lot of peppers. Now I see a pretty active pepper community over on redditt.

Lots of the same discussions we used to have, but a much younger group.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 17 Feb 2025, 14:52:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I')t is interesting how the information stage has shifted. PeakOil used to have a lot of peppers. Now I see a pretty active pepper community over on redditt.

Lots of the same discussions we used to have, but a much younger group.

Easy to explain.
We are getting older, hence our odds to die in comfort before collapse and without much of prepping are growing.
Members here are also rather wealthy - and more confident by the same.
On the West prepping is for kids from better off families.
Those poorer kids from countries like Somalia or Nepal are natural born preppers and survivalists in one and in case of TEOTWAWKI they will outdo 99,99% of Americans or Europeans.
Mexicans will also do reasonably well.

It is sad to say but prepping on West is a mixture of marketing unnecessary items (gadgetry scams), buying guns and ammo, and building survival dungeons.
There are also rather unsuccessful community building projects based either on ultra-left or ultra-right ideology.
I an afraid, that is not a way forward.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 18 Feb 2025, 19:47:24

Unfortunately the prepper lifestyle was just as prone to BS projections as the PeakOil debate was. Gold was roundly rejected by the community, still is! And the end goal, if you could achieve it, was a 40 acre plot of vegetables 200 km from the nearest town. Thankfully I ignored the ignorant Gold naysayers "You can't eat it" and am now sitting pretty as far as retirement goes.

But I did try the rural doomstead sitch, which sort of made sense, but thankfully got out of that dead-end after only 4 years of downside. How many old preppers are now sitting out in the back of nowhere with no mojo to fix their fences or plant another crop of Zucchini? How many are craving a decent internet connection, or a supermarket nearby where they can get the other 50% of their diet? So many delusions about mutant zombie hoards and the utter collapse of modern life. As it turns out remote rural properties are a lot more prone to attack than homes in small towns, Who would have thought? Anyone who did a little research on such things as it turns out.

So for all those suckers, it's a miserable life, why would they stay here and bemoan it? People's egos don't typically allow them to admit they were wrong. Just look at all the EVidiots that have fled the forum since the collapse of that dream. AdamB pops back from time to time to growl and spit but that's about it.

People get bewitched by the loudest voices. They put reason and common sense aside and follow each other in a herd like cattle.

Image

Now ask yourself, can you look at this picture without your brain linking it to all the modern rhetoric and politics? Can you see it in the context of the paragraphs above, an example of how a rational modern nation of people were suckered into following a disastrous path, simply because a handful of nutters shouted Lies long and hard at them. That is the measure of your detachment, of your open-mindedness.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 19 Feb 2025, 14:09:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'U')nfortunately the prepper lifestyle was just as prone to BS projections as the PeakOil debate was. Gold was roundly rejected by the community, still is! And the end goal, if you could achieve it, was a 40 acre plot of vegetables 200 km from the nearest town. Thankfully I ignored the ignorant Gold naysayers "You can't eat it" and am now sitting pretty as far as retirement goes.

Saying that it is now IMO time to go short with gold.
Very likely to dip and if Ukraine is dismembered at the end it will be a big dip for longer.
Yet, it will recover but those who are buying now may end up underwater for few years.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust look at all the EVidiots that have fled the forum since the collapse of that dream. AdamB pops back from time to time to growl and spit but that's about it.

Again - go visit China and note how many EV-s are there...
I many places MOST...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow ask yourself, can you look at this picture without your brain linking it to all the modern rhetoric and politics? Can you see it in the context of the paragraphs above, an example of how a rational modern nation of people were suckered into following a disastrous path, simply because a handful of nutters shouted Lies long and hard at them. That is the measure of your detachment, of your open-mindedness.

I tend to be individualistic in this respect.
I don't care where people go and whom they are listening to.
I care where I go - and I tend to listen only to myself unless proven otherwise.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Wed 19 Feb 2025, 19:40:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Image

Now ask yourself, can you look at this picture without your brain linking it to all the modern rhetoric and politics? Can you see it in the context of the paragraphs above, an example of how a rational modern nation of people were suckered into following a disastrous path, simply because a handful of nutters shouted Lies long and hard at them. That is the measure of your detachment, of your open-mindedness.


When the poor got punished for the failings of the rich, people can be easily manipulated into a solution.
Banks get bailed out but there was no investment in production, because austerity on the poor left no spare cash for shopping beyond the necessities.
The bailed out banks and corporations invest in their own stocks and give themselves pay rises....socialism for the rich,austerity for the poor.
We are seeing the same thing repeated everywhere.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Wed 19 Feb 2025, 21:37:30

We have had a very stable world since WW11 because of freeish trade.

Japan and Germany didnt need to invade anyone to get some resources to make stuff and we bought their stuff.
The US concentrated on its domestic markets and military exports.
There was room for China to make us all feel richer as middle class white people through cheap clothes and white goods.

Then when it looked like China was getting to big too quick....things changed free trade got replaced by protectionism.

Obviously first step is re tool look for new markets second step is way worse.

The US bought US cars as well as Japanese German and English
English bought UK and EU cars
Germans bought German mainly
Japanese mainly Japanese
EU mainly EU
Australia mainly Aus made (in the past) then Japanese and UK and EU

Then China stepped in with cheap batteries in time for PO

Brands that sold cars arent as important in the EV world those brands were attached to the ICE
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 20 Feb 2025, 17:45:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')hankfully I ignored the ignorant Gold naysayers "You can't eat it" and am now sitting pretty as far as retirement goes.


Saying that it is now IMO time to go short with gold.
Very likely to dip and if Ukraine is dismembered at the end it will be a big dip for longer.
Yet, it will recover but those who are buying now may end up underwater for few years.


Well perhaps, but only if they bought in the last year I'll wager. Gold has a good track record of increasing value in times of economic turmoil, like the 1970's. At the end of that era we had a stable World and Gold fell a lot, from $850 down to $200, but look at the chart

Image

All the losses were those from the "Obvious" bubble top, the last Year. Only an idiot buys into an exponential bubble top. The gains from $35~$200 were the inflation gains and Gold didn't give those up.

Here is the last 5 years, sure it's gone up, with inflation, but it's linear, not exponential.
Image

I hold physical Gold. And you don't "short" with physical, I'll leave that to the paper day traders. I bought my last gold over two years ago so I have a good buffer in any case. I don't project into the future based on political statements, but having said that, there is a lot of chatter now about the US revaluing it's Gold, upward, and using it, borrowing against it to buy back bonds. If this turns out to be so it's just a logical move against the BRICS who have been buying Gold en-mass for well over a decade and are clearly positioned for a Gold backed BRICS currency unit. Like the Gold backed $US that took over from the British Sterling at Brenton Woods. Historically Nations always go back to precious metals in the transition of the World's Reserve currency.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')gain - go visit China and note how many EV-s are there...

Why the Hell would I go there? Only the TV tourist set go there, they all follow each other in a herd, 15 years ago it was India, they were all going to India then. In the rest of the world EV sales have been falling and rightly so, certainly all across Western Europe and down here. Norway is still going all in, but the government there is very generous, since it makes a fortune selling oil and gas and their population is only 5.5 million.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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