by theluckycountry » Wed 02 Oct 2024, 17:07:15
Back to Basics
Unlike Gold, Bitcoin is Not a Safe-Haven
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hough its supporters call it "digital gold," Bitcoin keeps proving that it is not a true safe-haven asset like real gold.
Today was yet another day marked by geopolitical turmoil, much like many others over the past year. This time, the turmoil was triggered by Iran launching at least 180 ballistic missiles toward Israel, marking the largest missile strike against Israel in history. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that Iran has made a grave mistake and will face consequences as the world inches closer to all-out war with each passing hour. I hope for a peaceful resolution to this crisis, however unlikely that may seem. In this article, I’d like to share my observations on two assets often touted as safe havens—gold and Bitcoin—and how they perform during times of geopolitical crisis.
The chart below shows a tale of two assets: gold and Bitcoin. At approximately 9:32 AM EST, reports began circulating that Iran was imminently preparing to launch ballistic missiles at Israel. Interestingly, gold and Bitcoin responded in starkly opposite ways—gold surged while Bitcoin plummeted. This price action confirmed a long-standing frustration I have with Bitcoin: it behaves more like a risk asset than a true safe-haven. If Bitcoin were truly "digital gold," I would expect it to rise during periods of geopolitical turmoil, not decline.
I have long maintained that Bitcoin behaves more like a speculative risk asset, similar to hot tech stocks, rather than a safe-haven asset. This is evident in how closely Bitcoin's price movement tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index. The data reveals a striking correlation coefficient of 0.88 (out of 1) between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 over the past five years, confirming their strong relationship and closely aligned movements. As the Twitter user “The Great Martis” frequently points out, “Bitcoin is merely a Nasdaq ETF,” and I couldn’t agree more.
https://thebubblebubble.substack.com/p/ ... not-a-safe
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y goal for this article isn't to present a full thesis proving that U.S. technology stocks are in a bubble (though I plan to address that in detail soon). I simply want the investing community to recognize the reality: Bitcoin shouldn’t be labeled “digital gold” if it doesn’t behave like a true safe-haven asset. I hope to raise greater awareness that Bitcoin is a risk asset, better suited for "good times" rather than times of crisis.
But this is 2024, the Decade of ever greater lies and marketing swindles so what could one expect? At some level nearly everyone sees this. When they get their car serviced, or look at their retirement portfolio, or even simply go shopping. The Marketing Hype engulfs them and invariably proves to be false. But then they go back to their TV set and it tells them all is well. They go to their favorite bubble forum and there the faithful tell them all is well. BC had it's halving and this is all normal, just Hodl and you'll be rich one day.
No mention is ever made of the correlation with techie stocks, that's studiously ignored because it doesn't fit the BC narrative. BC is Marketed as separate from all other assets, Superior to all other assets. If it fails to live up to one of it's founding principles, like being a medium of everyday exchange, that principle is simply ignored, tossed out the window because BC is Amazing and fast and unlimited and... The marketers of BC don't want hodlers to think too deeply, "this is all complex algorithms and market variations, it's beyond you, just have Diamond hands and stay the course." But what happens in a general market
Crash! When you may need some liquidity to pay bills etc?
Well that's where the Basics come in doesn't it. Evil Fiat money and the selling of pet rocks. Last time I bought a motorcycle the options were Bank transfer or cash, or
Finance. My insurance policies were cash or transfer, same with my utilities. Now Gold and silver are readily sold here for cash. And so is BC. But if my Gold was 10% or 30% underwater from the purchase price I'd have to be desperate to sell it wouldn't I. Thankfully it's not. Even my last purchases of 2 years ago are up 37%. That's inline with Gold's annual gains of around 20% dating back to around 2005 when I "awoke".
But Gold hodlers typically have large stores of cash as well. Sure we know it depreciates, that bank interest rarely even keeps pace with inflation, but cash is security, short term security. Typically we hate paying interest as well. I couldn't tell you the last time I carried debt, decades ago it was. In your private life you should never take on debt except for an appreciating asset like a Home. Cars? Holidays? Home renovations? Never! Stupid people do that and in the process eat away at their earnings year by year assuring that come retirement they will have a lot less to live on. No one buys Gold on finance but many bought BC on finance, even on CC Debt. How stupid is that!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oes anyone still use Bittylicious? : r/BitcoinUK
I used them back in late 2017, in to 2018 when I first bought Bitcoin (on credit card lol) but I soon figured out their fees were brutal so ...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ryptocurrency is trending again—as Bitcoin has surpassed all-time high prices and the entire crypto market once again approaches nearly $3 trillion in market capitalization. As millions of people start pouring money into the crypto industry, you might be considering purchasing crypto directly with a credit card. After all—you use your credit card for everything else—why not crypto?