Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

What Peak Oil Could Look Like

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
Post a reply

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 06 Jul 2024, 08:49:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')he world needs cheap oil and not just more oil, and what's offered via unconventional production and what remains of conventional involve higher depletion rates and/or more refining required.

In addition, oil has to be cheaper each time in order to deal with increasing demand for energy and material resources per person coupled with the effects of diminishing returns, i.e., more oil needed each time to get more oil that's deeper and/or requires more refining.

Plus the same applies to minerals.


Exactly. Cheap oil, and cheap minerals. There is still oceans of conventional oil out there, we are after all only at the halfway point. Russian reserves are Huge and then there is Venezuela.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'V')enezuela had the world's largest proven crude oil reserves in 2023 with approximately 303 billion barrels (Figure 5), accounting for approximately 17% of global reserves
https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/VEN

But that oil is currently off-line so to speak due to sanctions. They tried to do what Saudi Arabia did, kick out the colonialists, but it didn't work the same way. Personally I think this is simply deliberate rationing by the West. That oil is being kept in reserve, like a lot of Australian oil was left untapped decades ago.

We actually don't need more oil, that's the cornucopian solution, what we need is a lot less consumers and as we see all across the globe nations are curtailing their usage as general austerity/poverty takes hold. The world's population is ever growing but consumption is declining I would argue. Look at the US itself, the biggest consumer still?

A current chart (miles driven) running from 1970 to today, adjusted for population growth. The second chart is without the adjustment but still shows a decline.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/ima ... ddccb2.png
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/ima ... 697e48.png
The Webpage itself (America's driving habits) https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... april-2024

The turning point was June 2005. That was 'peak driving' so to speak and it declined sharply after that, then recovered a bit late in the decade only to be hammered by the covid lockdown measures. Currently it's back to 1995 levels, just what you would expect as we go down the other side of the bell curve of oil availability. It's why I believe Covid was a total scam! It was engineered (the response) to drastically reduce oil consumption across the globe and break people from the habit of driving frivolously. And it worked!

So now all we need is to keep up the impoverishment of the people to keep up with the curve, but that's all to much fine tuning, so just collapse the global economy in a debt crisis and you're there, years ahead of the curve in fact. It's the logical solution if you can stop thinking like a self-entitled believer in the democratic system, a system where supposedly people have a say in how their life is managed.

This is where the claims of conspiracy theories get put forward, people use that word like their governments do, to silence opposing views. But all the pieces of the puzzle fit neatly into the concept that the World's oil supply and consumption is not some random market based mechanism but is in fact being managed at the highest levels of authority on the Planet. And why not? It is the basis of life on the planet now, 5 Billion people wouldn't exist if we didn't use these fossil fuels in the food and medical industries.

It needs to be managed, I can see the logic in that. And it's easily done too when you have control of the banks, the capital flows on the Planet. You want to reduce consumption by 5%? Increase interest rates by 5% and the people will curtail driving in favor of paying their mortgages and streaming services. But interest rates are only one lever, you have pandemic responses now, Increases in registration costs etc. Of course we are just talking about cars so far, how about long haul trucks and ships? They need oil too, and then Electricity and the decline of Gas supplies. It all has to be managed in lockstep, especially the oil fractions. There is no point in curtailing Gasoline usage faster than Diesel when it still flows out of the refineries in the same proportion as the Diesel does. Both have to decline together, along with road asphalt and ship fuel etc.

Go back and look at the charts, they say it all.

Why are young people driving less? Evidence points to economics, not preferences
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why- ... eferences/
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
theluckycountry
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5254
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby jato0072 » Sat 06 Jul 2024, 16:30:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat Peak Oil Could Look Like


Shame oil and fossil fuel use under the false narrative of "climate change emergency" so the USA can consume the lion's share. Other countries will be weakened and the GAE can continue for many more decades.
"On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."
User avatar
jato0072
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 335
Joined: Wed 04 Aug 2021, 16:47:30
Location: NV
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 08 Jul 2024, 19:34:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato0072', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat Peak Oil Could Look Like


Shame oil and fossil fuel use under the false narrative of "climate change emergency" so the USA can consume the lion's share. Other countries will be weakened and the GAE can continue for many more decades.


Yes, but at an ever decreasing scale I assume. The poverty in america is... Oh, Sorry! I see what you mean by GAE, that doesn't apply to the people and nation as a whole, but to the fatcat politicians; the rich pharmaceutical owners and their paid for medical industry mouthpieces like Fauchi. For the Wall street insiders and Banking elites, for the major drug dealers and all the Generals retiring from service onto the boards of Boeing and Raytheon. For the overpaid sports stars and actors and rappers, for the top level youtube influencers, in other words, for all the parasites that add nothing to the wealth of the nation. Parasites, sucking the life out of their host like a tick infestation.

Image
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
theluckycountry
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5254
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 08 Jul 2024, 19:46:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')he world needs cheap oil and not just more oil, and what's offered via unconventional production and what remains of conventional involve higher depletion rates and/or more refining required.

In addition, oil has to be cheaper each time in order to deal with increasing demand for energy and material resources per person coupled with the effects of diminishing returns, i.e., more oil needed each time to get more oil that's deeper and/or requires more refining.

Plus the same applies to minerals.


Exactly. Cheap oil, and cheap minerals. There is still oceans of conventional oil out there, we are after all only at the halfway point. Russian reserves are Huge and then there is Venezuela.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'V')enezuela had the world's largest proven crude oil reserves in 2023 with approximately 303 billion barrels (Figure 5), accounting for approximately 17% of global reserves
https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/VEN

But that oil is currently off-line so to speak due to sanctions. They tried to do what Saudi Arabia did, kick out the colonialists, but it didn't work the same way. Personally I think this is simply deliberate rationing by the West. That oil is being kept in reserve, like a lot of Australian oil was left untapped decades ago.

We actually don't need more oil, that's the cornucopian solution, what we need is a lot less consumers and as we see all across the globe nations are curtailing their usage as general austerity/poverty takes hold. The world's population is ever growing but consumption is declining I would argue. Look at the US itself, the biggest consumer still?

A current chart (miles driven) running from 1970 to today, adjusted for population growth. The second chart is without the adjustment but still shows a decline.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/ima ... ddccb2.png
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/ima ... 697e48.png
The Webpage itself (America's driving habits) https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... april-2024

The turning point was June 2005. That was 'peak driving' so to speak and it declined sharply after that, then recovered a bit late in the decade only to be hammered by the covid lockdown measures. Currently it's back to 1995 levels, just what you would expect as we go down the other side of the bell curve of oil availability. It's why I believe Covid was a total scam! It was engineered (the response) to drastically reduce oil consumption across the globe and break people from the habit of driving frivolously. And it worked!

So now all we need is to keep up the impoverishment of the people to keep up with the curve, but that's all to much fine tuning, so just collapse the global economy in a debt crisis and you're there, years ahead of the curve in fact. It's the logical solution if you can stop thinking like a self-entitled believer in the democratic system, a system where supposedly people have a say in how their life is managed.

This is where the claims of conspiracy theories get put forward, people use that word like their governments do, to silence opposing views. But all the pieces of the puzzle fit neatly into the concept that the World's oil supply and consumption is not some random market based mechanism but is in fact being managed at the highest levels of authority on the Planet. And why not? It is the basis of life on the planet now, 5 Billion people wouldn't exist if we didn't use these fossil fuels in the food and medical industries.

It needs to be managed, I can see the logic in that. And it's easily done too when you have control of the banks, the capital flows on the Planet. You want to reduce consumption by 5%? Increase interest rates by 5% and the people will curtail driving in favor of paying their mortgages and streaming services. But interest rates are only one lever, you have pandemic responses now, Increases in registration costs etc. Of course we are just talking about cars so far, how about long haul trucks and ships? They need oil too, and then Electricity and the decline of Gas supplies. It all has to be managed in lockstep, especially the oil fractions. There is no point in curtailing Gasoline usage faster than Diesel when it still flows out of the refineries in the same proportion as the Diesel does. Both have to decline together, along with road asphalt and ship fuel etc.

Go back and look at the charts, they say it all.

Why are young people driving less? Evidence points to economics, not preferences
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why- ... eferences/


That's what the IEA said after 2005: there's no peak oil, only above-ground problems involving politics. There are around 400 years' worth of oil underground.

Three years later, they conducted a global survey, and then released a report in 2010 stating that they were wrong: there is peak oil, and they have to mitigate it through better technology. That's why they came up with that chart showing conventional production flattening out while unconventional production soaring.

Apparently, the problem isn't reserves but gravity and diminishing returns, similar to what's been happening to minerals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFyTSiCXWEE

That is, no matter how much oil is underground, if it's too deep and/or requires processing, the cost of getting it goes up, which means the energy return goes down. (Others mitigate it by arguing for oil prices, which have been swinging wildly regardless of supply and demand due to speculation.)

This brings us to control by the elite, as you pointed out, and it's a contradictory stance: they're in power financially, but they are forced to set up controls which also curtails their financial power.

But it's also raised by the IEA in the form of peak demand. That is, the world population is exhaused with spending too much, and would now like to consume less.

The catch is that they often refer to industrialized countries, like the U.S. What is happening worldwide?

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-22956470

They may be driving less, but are their energy and resource demands going up per capita as they receive more disposable income? Are they opting for ride-sharing, while demanding a nice, small apartment, with lots of gadgets, and spend obscene amounts of money, by working hard and then playing hard, to travel to places like Singapore and watch Taylor Swift or to Bangkok for to fawn on their "boy love" idols? (In terms of ecological footprint, one trip by air is said to be equivalent to a chunk of the energy and material resource demands of one poor family, which characterizes much of the same world population.)
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5651
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 09 Jul 2024, 18:49:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')
That's what the IEA said after 2005: there's no peak oil, only above-ground problems involving politics. There are around 400 years' worth of oil underground.

Three years later, they conducted a global survey, and then released a report in 2010 stating that they were wrong: there is peak oil, and they have to mitigate it through better technology. ...Apparently, the problem isn't reserves but gravity and diminishing returns, similar to what's been happening to minerals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFyTSiCXWEE


They may be driving less, but are their energy and resource demands going up per capita as they receive more disposable income? Are they opting for ride-sharing, while demanding a nice, small apartment, with lots of gadgets...


I don't think there was a shortage of forests and metal to make chariots 2000 years ago but only the wealthy had them. Like stated above, there isn't enough oil left at current rates of consumption to last 30 years but there is enough to last 10,000 years if all the plebeians are denied it. So it's a resource management issue, and a complex one. How do you tell 99.9% of the population they can't drive or fly anymore? And how do you, with all your wealth, safely drive around when there are hundreds of thousands of angry people watching you?

So the solution is exactly what we see isn't it. Slow impoverishment, and soon I suspect, rapid mass impoverishment. I don't think one in 10,000 has any idea how this is going to play out but I assume the last vehicles off the roads will be the trucks bringing food into the cities. Twenty years ago a small minority twigged to this problem and gathered on forums like this to discuss the ways the wealthy corporations and their government stooges were going to mitigate it, How they were going to give everyone a 20th century lifestyle as the fossil energy depleted.

They assumed that "Government" would one day wake up and rescue them with the necessary changes. And they never considered for a moment that "Government" would just throw them under a bus, because after all, it's a democracy! If they don't do what we say we'll vote them out. So when government got behind these solar schemes and EV schemes they were all happy, they didn't look to deep into it they just assumed that one day soon they would be making the solar panels with solar energy and we'd have the bright future. We'd buy a cheap renewable EV and go tooling off into the sunset like it was 1970.

These forums are empty now, or simply gone! The posters realized I think that the hope of a cornucopian future was impossible and simply went off to do "whatever"? It was a case of "You can fool all of the people some of the time" And with Brain-deaders like Adam and kub it's a case of "You can fool some of the people all of the time". If we are in this much financial trouble and so much debt now, while we're still near the top of the depletion curve, what's it going to be like in 10 or 20 years when we are well down the other side? Those people you mention above, the ones with Bullshit jobs living in nice apartments with lots of toys will probably be out of work and probably out on the street!

All Bullshits jobs will go. Nail buffers, dog walkers, millions of office workers and retail sales people. Probably 90% of the universities with their Bullshit negro studies and social justice studies. All the malls will go because they are a shopping fiesta phenomena and very few people will be buying new handbags and high heel shoes, expensive running shoes and their fashion derivatives. Ice cream parlors and boutique gift shops and jewelry stores by the dozen. Malls and their huge parking spaces will be redundant, old fashioned mainstreet will be back but alas they don't exist in the Burbs do they? Only in the older inner city suburbs.

I can't even imagine what it will be like living in a city in the decades to come. Sort of like Juarez down in Mexico, or the Port-au-Prince, the capital of Haiti. Only with a lot less cars and trucks on the road lol.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
theluckycountry
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5254
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 09 Jul 2024, 19:11:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')hese forums are empty now, or simply gone! The posters realized I think that the hope of a cornucopian future was impossible and simply went off to do "whatever"? It was a case of "You can fool all of the people some of the time" And with Brain-deaders like Adam and kub it's a case of "You can fool some of the people all of the time".
The forum died because nobody cares about peak oil anymore. Back when oil was $150 a barrel interest in peak oil was skyrocketing. People were flooding the forum talking about the end of the world as we know it, the coming zombie hordes, the future of stripped supermarket shelves, etc. But then oil prices fell, there were no zombie hordes, supermarkets are full, and everyone went back to BAU and forgot all about peak oil. It was not people having some existential crisis about their hopium turning out to be a mirage, it was just plain old lack of interest. I'm not saying peak oil should be dismissed as a giant nothing event. I'm saying people have the attention span of flies. Unless their immediate interests are threatened, then I think people will continue to be dismissive of peak oil and show a lack of interest.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ewer people than ever are searching Google for the phrase “peak oil”.
Nobody Cares About ‘Peak Oil’ Anymore

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen oil was flirting with the $150 per barrel mark, people were flocking to Google to search for the term "peak oil." Today, Google searches for "peak oil" are all but nonexistent.

Oswald Clint and Mark Tabrett, analysts at Bernstein, were quoted by Bloomberg as saying in a research report that a lack of concern over peak oil based on search trends is a useful indicator of how tens of millions of people are thinking.

In fact, the analysts noted that Google search trends have picked up a series of "supply searches," including terms such as "oil inventories," "oil demand" and "oil supply."

In addition, Google search for the term "too much oil" now outranks searches for "peak oil," marking a notable reverse in trends when searches for "peak oil" outnumbered "too much oil" by nearly 100 to 1 in 2005–2006.

Interest in the old concern of 'Peak Oil' has all but disappeared after the surge in focus on this during the mid-2000s.
Google Search Trends For Peak Oil Have 'All But Disappeared'
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 5064
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Illinois
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 12 Jul 2024, 22:24:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')
That's what the IEA said after 2005: there's no peak oil, only above-ground problems involving politics. There are around 400 years' worth of oil underground.

Three years later, they conducted a global survey, and then released a report in 2010 stating that they were wrong: there is peak oil, and they have to mitigate it through better technology. ...Apparently, the problem isn't reserves but gravity and diminishing returns, similar to what's been happening to minerals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFyTSiCXWEE


They may be driving less, but are their energy and resource demands going up per capita as they receive more disposable income? Are they opting for ride-sharing, while demanding a nice, small apartment, with lots of gadgets...


I don't think there was a shortage of forests and metal to make chariots 2000 years ago but only the wealthy had them. Like stated above, there isn't enough oil left at current rates of consumption to last 30 years but there is enough to last 10,000 years if all the plebeians are denied it. So it's a resource management issue, and a complex one. How do you tell 99.9% of the population they can't drive or fly anymore? And how do you, with all your wealth, safely drive around when there are hundreds of thousands of angry people watching you?

So the solution is exactly what we see isn't it. Slow impoverishment, and soon I suspect, rapid mass impoverishment. I don't think one in 10,000 has any idea how this is going to play out but I assume the last vehicles off the roads will be the trucks bringing food into the cities. Twenty years ago a small minority twigged to this problem and gathered on forums like this to discuss the ways the wealthy corporations and their government stooges were going to mitigate it, How they were going to give everyone a 20th century lifestyle as the fossil energy depleted.

They assumed that "Government" would one day wake up and rescue them with the necessary changes. And they never considered for a moment that "Government" would just throw them under a bus, because after all, it's a democracy! If they don't do what we say we'll vote them out. So when government got behind these solar schemes and EV schemes they were all happy, they didn't look to deep into it they just assumed that one day soon they would be making the solar panels with solar energy and we'd have the bright future. We'd buy a cheap renewable EV and go tooling off into the sunset like it was 1970.

These forums are empty now, or simply gone! The posters realized I think that the hope of a cornucopian future was impossible and simply went off to do "whatever"? It was a case of "You can fool all of the people some of the time" And with Brain-deaders like Adam and kub it's a case of "You can fool some of the people all of the time". If we are in this much financial trouble and so much debt now, while we're still near the top of the depletion curve, what's it going to be like in 10 or 20 years when we are well down the other side? Those people you mention above, the ones with Bullshit jobs living in nice apartments with lots of toys will probably be out of work and probably out on the street!

All Bullshits jobs will go. Nail buffers, dog walkers, millions of office workers and retail sales people. Probably 90% of the universities with their Bullshit negro studies and social justice studies. All the malls will go because they are a shopping fiesta phenomena and very few people will be buying new handbags and high heel shoes, expensive running shoes and their fashion derivatives. Ice cream parlors and boutique gift shops and jewelry stores by the dozen. Malls and their huge parking spaces will be redundant, old fashioned mainstreet will be back but alas they don't exist in the Burbs do they? Only in the older inner city suburbs.

I can't even imagine what it will be like living in a city in the decades to come. Sort of like Juarez down in Mexico, or the Port-au-Prince, the capital of Haiti. Only with a lot less cars and trucks on the road lol.


I think they had feudal systems in the past, and in those cases power from the wealthy can in the form of physical force; hence, chariots.

In contrast, present systems use competitive capitalism. That means the wealthy maintain power using numbers in hard drives, and those numbers go up only if more goods and services are sold. And more are sold if more are made or provided, which means more oil's needed.

That also means economies need to grow continuously, and given competition, grow faster each time. Otherwise, the value of those numbers vaporize.

The implication with that is that if given peak oil, the 99.9 percent can't fly or drive, then neither will the 0.01 percent. That's because the ability to fly and drive are ultimately based on mass industrialization, which in turn is driven by increasing production needed to support increasing consumption.

That's why first the IEA stated that there's no peak oil because there are only above-ground problems. After that, they admitted that there are limits, but they can be resolved through increasing technology. Last, they said that there's peak demand, so there won't be peak oil.

Given that, why are few talking about it? It's because they believe one of the three things mentioned by the IEA or have acknowledged that it's a predicament, which means there's no solution, so just enjoy what you have as long as you can.
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5651
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 12 Jul 2024, 22:28:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')hese forums are empty now, or simply gone! The posters realized I think that the hope of a cornucopian future was impossible and simply went off to do "whatever"? It was a case of "You can fool all of the people some of the time" And with Brain-deaders like Adam and kub it's a case of "You can fool some of the people all of the time".
The forum died because nobody cares about peak oil anymore. Back when oil was $150 a barrel interest in peak oil was skyrocketing. People were flooding the forum talking about the end of the world as we know it, the coming zombie hordes, the future of stripped supermarket shelves, etc. But then oil prices fell, there were no zombie hordes, supermarkets are full, and everyone went back to BAU and forgot all about peak oil. It was not people having some existential crisis about their hopium turning out to be a mirage, it was just plain old lack of interest. I'm not saying peak oil should be dismissed as a giant nothing event. I'm saying people have the attention span of flies. Unless their immediate interests are threatened, then I think people will continue to be dismissive of peak oil and show a lack of interest.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ewer people than ever are searching Google for the phrase “peak oil”.
Nobody Cares About ‘Peak Oil’ Anymore

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen oil was flirting with the $150 per barrel mark, people were flocking to Google to search for the term "peak oil." Today, Google searches for "peak oil" are all but nonexistent.

Oswald Clint and Mark Tabrett, analysts at Bernstein, were quoted by Bloomberg as saying in a research report that a lack of concern over peak oil based on search trends is a useful indicator of how tens of millions of people are thinking.

In fact, the analysts noted that Google search trends have picked up a series of "supply searches," including terms such as "oil inventories," "oil demand" and "oil supply."

In addition, Google search for the term "too much oil" now outranks searches for "peak oil," marking a notable reverse in trends when searches for "peak oil" outnumbered "too much oil" by nearly 100 to 1 in 2005–2006.

Interest in the old concern of 'Peak Oil' has all but disappeared after the surge in focus on this during the mid-2000s.
Google Search Trends For Peak Oil Have 'All But Disappeared'


Peak oil for them is based on price, not energy return. That's why they can't explain how prices plummeted while demand didn't soar, and why demand slowly rose even as prices went up, and then demand didn't soar as prices dropped to zero during the early period of the pandemic, and then still slowly crept up even as prices increased again.

It's like seeing climate change in terms of weather, where there's no climate change because of incredible cold, and then forgetting about climate change during the next heat wave.

Meanwhile, both government and business have to assure them that there's peak demand anyway, "green" energy will solve both peak oil and climate change, and so on.
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5651
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 13 Jul 2024, 11:24:16

The religion of peak oil as was preached in the early half of the 2000's said that once we reached peak the global system would collapse, it would be horse and cart again. I don't know how they arrived at that conclusion? Perhaps it was the innate human desire to see disasters and then the most bellicose got on the front pages of the movement. Like "From the wilderness" etc. It's like the people pre-1970 who said that once the US couldn't afford to settle it's accounts in Gold there would be a financial collapse on untold proportions.

What we are seeing instead is this oil auction where the poorest nations can't afford the $80 price because their Wheat or Tea or whatever else is their major export is still at low last century prices. They are turning back into total 3rd world impoverishment and the oil they are not using is basically what's Not available anymore due to depletion. This is what's stopping the first world collapsing like it did in 2008 at $150/bbl.

Even so you only have to have an objective look at the UK, the USA, Germany France and a few others and you see the general standard of living collapsing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak oil for them is based on price, not energy return. That's why they can't explain how prices plummeted while demand didn't soar, and why demand slowly rose even as prices went up


Try https://yandex.com/search/?text=%22peak+oil%22&lr=10115
You'll see a whole different set of results. I don't know who is controlling Google but it's hopelessly censored now for issues like this. All Google hit's are like:
Why Peak-Oil Predictions Haven't Come True
M. King Hubbert and the rise and fall of peak oil theory
Axios: "The Case Against Imminent Peak Oil Demand"

The oil suppliers know that if price gets too high they will kill the golden goose so they have too keep it range bound. Even so the new price is killing the 20th century way of business slowly but surely. I can't understand why people can't look back at 2008 and not connect the dots? Shale oil revolution? It's meaningless as far as peakoil is concerned. Just more lies like the electric car transition
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
theluckycountry
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5254
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 13 Jul 2024, 22:14:11

Peak oil is based on physics; the "religion" part involves what happens given a peak.

For the first part, if you have a limited biosphere, then you automatically experience diminishing returns when extracting resources from it due to physical limitations and gravity. You can see the same thing happening with mining:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFyTSiCXWEE

The problem's the effects: if prices go up through speculation, diminishing returns, or both, then economies crash, leading to prices going down. That deals with the speculation but doesn't reverse diminishing returns because no matter what the costs and prices are in dollars, the amount of energy needed to extract oil remains the same and has a downward trend.

Thus, economies fall apart due to speculation, and then can recover if more funny money is made, with people thinking that there's no more peak oil, but the energy returns remain the same and still go on a downward trend, which is what peak oil's really about.

Technology can be developed to counter diminishing returns, but as demand goes up, necessitating increasing production, then that counter becomes temporary. It's like extracting more oil to come up with 1950s products, and thanks to lots of oil, thus allowing for 2000s products, in turn leading to more oil needed.

This allows us to see the other part of that religion: the desire for a space age. People aren't happy with just seeing their warlords having chariots, or themselves having chariots. They want Teslas, or maybe fly in craft like the Jetsons. In short, they want more stuff each time, and better, too.

This puts to question the belief that there won't be peak oil because there'll be peak demand. What's likely is that peak demand's a religious belief, based on the premise that the current world's a feudal one and that plebes won't demand and get more, or that people will be perfectly happily to follow the WEF and own nothing amidst and technological utopia.

In short, following the thread on EVs, car companies need to sell more EVs each time, the IEA will tell people that peak oil's solved because of EVs, environmentalists will argue that EVs will solve climate change, and the WEF will say that people will happily just rent EVs. Also, they'll all say that the world's not far away from what they wish because it's already industrialized thanks to technological "gamechangers". That's what they see when they look out their window in the U.S., Japan, and Norway, with the latter often used as an example for EV use.

If any, that's the religion part. The non-religion part is that EVs require a lot of fossil fuels, can't replace ICEVs, involve cheap labor and resources from most of the world, which isn't like Norway but want to be like the U.S., and probably Norway later, which means the opposite of peak demand, as most of the world isn't industrialized but want do so.

And the elite who control the world aren't feudal lords but capitalists, which means they maintain power by industrializing that world.

Which is why they keep saying that peak oil is a religion because the world's doing well, EVs will save us, climate change is fake like peak oil or easy to solve, that people will be happy in a world that is close to and will be like Norway, and that new technologies will help them along the way.

Finally, most people want that world, which is why they don't like participating in peak oil forums, and wouldn't concerning climate change as well if it were not for celebrities connected to that issue and the environment.

In which case, I leave it to the few who are still studying that matter and figure out the points I raised above, then look at it through the lens of realism rather than what the UN, the IEA, the WEF, large corporations, capitalists, and pundits say.
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5651
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 14 Jul 2024, 11:04:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'P')eak oil is based on physics; the "religion" part involves what happens given a peak.

I couldn't agree more. But from the public's perception it's all the same, being scietifically illiterate for the most part they just latch on to what's repeated to them over and over. It's why the movement lost it's way, everyone was focusing on that apocalypse. All religions have an apocalypse in their teaching don't they lol.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or the first part, if you have a limited biosphere, then you automatically experience diminishing returns when extracting resources from it due to physical limitations and gravity. You can see the same thing happening with mining:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFyTSiCXWEE

Finally, most people want that world, which is why they don't like participating in peak oil forums, and wouldn't concerning climate change as well if it were not for celebrities connected to that issue and the environment.

In which case, I leave it to the few who are still studying that matter and figure out the points I raised above, then look at it through the lens of realism rather than what the UN, the IEA, the WEF, large corporations, capitalists, and pundits say.


Yes well no one is here to study the matter now. No one is listening to the message, the Science or the religion. It's been successfully buried by the mass media and politicians and will remain buried just like the looming monetary crisis is buried. Both will be resolved though by a massive collapse of the capitalistic financial system like in 1929 and it's subsequent reboot, the new poverty system. 37 Trillion in Federal debt will be wiped out, the SS system will be eradicated like was done in the USSR and China and the lack of money in people's pockets will solve the peak oil dilemma.

Then we can talk about other things like growing vegetables and servicing old bicycles, just like a lot of the early peakoilers did.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
theluckycountry
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5254
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby mousepad » Sun 14 Jul 2024, 14:36:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')
The problem's the effects: if prices go up through speculation,

speculation has limited effect on price, since hording of oil is difficult to do.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Technology can be developed to counter diminishing returns,

or simply more drilling using existing technology will do the trick

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')It's like extracting more oil to come up with 1950s products, and thanks to lots of oil, thus allowing for 2000s products, in turn leading to more oil needed.

yes, for how long can this go on? 10 years? 100 years? 1000 years? Should I care?
mousepad
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 980
Joined: Thu 26 Sep 2019, 09:07:56
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 14 Jul 2024, 18:08:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')hese forums are empty now, or simply gone! The posters realized I think that the hope of a cornucopian future was impossible and simply went off to do "whatever"? It was a case of "You can fool all of the people some of the time" And with Brain-deaders like Adam and kub it's a case of "You can fool some of the people all of the time".
The forum died because nobody cares about peak oil anymore. Back when oil was $150 a barrel interest in peak oil was skyrocketing. People were flooding the forum talking about the end of the world as we know it, the coming zombie hordes, the future of stripped supermarket shelves, etc. But then oil prices fell, there were no zombie hordes, supermarkets are full, and everyone went back to BAU and forgot all about peak oil. It was not people having some existential crisis about their hopium turning out to be a mirage, it was just plain old lack of interest. I'm not saying peak oil should be dismissed as a giant nothing event. I'm saying people have the attention span of flies. Unless their immediate interests are threatened, then I think people will continue to be dismissive of peak oil and show a lack of interest.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ewer people than ever are searching Google for the phrase “peak oil”.
Nobody Cares About ‘Peak Oil’ Anymore

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen oil was flirting with the $150 per barrel mark, people were flocking to Google to search for the term "peak oil." Today, Google searches for "peak oil" are all but nonexistent.

Oswald Clint and Mark Tabrett, analysts at Bernstein, were quoted by Bloomberg as saying in a research report that a lack of concern over peak oil based on search trends is a useful indicator of how tens of millions of people are thinking.

In fact, the analysts noted that Google search trends have picked up a series of "supply searches," including terms such as "oil inventories," "oil demand" and "oil supply."

In addition, Google search for the term "too much oil" now outranks searches for "peak oil," marking a notable reverse in trends when searches for "peak oil" outnumbered "too much oil" by nearly 100 to 1 in 2005–2006.

Interest in the old concern of 'Peak Oil' has all but disappeared after the surge in focus on this during the mid-2000s.
Google Search Trends For Peak Oil Have 'All But Disappeared'


Kub,

You make a very good point about our attention span which relates to our inability to take purselves out of the present moment and step into the future. Or even just look at ourselves from another viewpoint. Worse, our inbility to see others from their own view point.

On average we are simply stuck in the here and now, happy to survive for the moment.

It is how we are programmed, we have the worldview of a gazzel on the Savanah. Eat (and procreate) until I am eaten.

Our recent high survival rates are an anomaly we
have not adjusted to.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 18651
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Between Canada and Carribean
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 20 Jul 2024, 15:03:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I')t is how we are programmed, we have the worldview of a gazzel on the Savanah. Eat (and procreate) until I am eaten.

Our recent high survival rates are an anomaly we
have not adjusted to.


There are other animals on the Savannah besides Gazelle, but I agree with you in aggregate. Our recent high survival rates are certainly the issue but all its done has make us weaker I feel. It's 4:41am here, 50 deg-f outside and 61 inside. Midwinter, a mild night for that but I just turned on the A/C rather than feel any static discomfort.

120 years ago people were living out here in small drafty wooden huts probably, a kerosene lantern, a horse and dirt track outside. I'm sure we could adjust to that but the average age of death then was probably 60 and I wouldn't be here drinking my coffee imported from South America and posting on a forum in America with a Laptop made in Japan. I wonder how many other people stop to consider these things?

I need to bring up more wood for the fire, not lit tonight because it wasn't cold enough, I think I'll do it right at dawn and get a feel for what it was like 120 years ago. At least for 15 minutes. The wood was delivered by truck, already split into the optimum size for my slow combustion heater. $150 a load, two loads per winter typically. That's about 2 hours labor when I was working. How much labor would that have been 120 years ago, cutting and splitting by hand? Doesn't bear thinking about does it.

I'll be glad to be dead before we have to go back to that [smilie=icon_confused.gif]

Image
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
theluckycountry
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5254
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 20 Sep 2024, 13:08:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'P')eak oil is based on physics; the "religion" part involves what happens given a peak.

Peak oil isn't physics. Reservoir engineering is physics, discovery processing modeling is mathematics and geostatistics, oil is created by principles understood within petroleum geology, which is doses of physics and chemistry. choosing to develop oil is all about economics.

Peak oil is a cult like belief, usually adhered to by people lacking familiarity with some, or all, of the aforementioned sciences. Boiled down to a basic level, the three main components involve geology, engineering or technology, and economics.

The religious part is when you were at LATOC pretending their religious perspective was true. Because some newby LAWYER told you so, and made money off the ignorant he collected by having them use his Amazon code so he could pay his rent off of the same suckers he sold the idea of peak oil too.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 22 Sep 2024, 00:55:01

What Peak Oil Could Look Like?

Basically what we are seeing now. The slow destruction of industrial manufacturing across the globe, the failure of supply chains. The consolidation of automakers, Big problems in the food industry, luxuries first, coco, coffee then rice wheat and all else. Rampant inflation as the value of real things go up and up. And Oil Wars, as was predicted. The middle east and africa, and now one against Russia to try and get control of those reserves. Of course all this is blamed on other factors, like Covid, WMD, Evil Putler who needs to be stopped. But it was spelt out long long ago by the founding fathers of Peak oil so I disregard the BS media spin that's designed to keep fools in EV's and the stock market.

Some people on here, I won't name usernames, are completely befuddled by PeakOil. They think there have been many peaks and each one is as important as the others. They have confused themselves and in so doing have missed the point and the opportunity. They needed to prepare for this historical event, and they haven't. It was like the Apollo 12 Lunar landing. That was the only one that really counted, it defined the end of the Space race and everything after has just been a hollow echo as NASA wound down with budgetary cuts. The same applies to PeakOil. 2008 was the only date that mattered, after that the global economy collapsed and we entered the terminal money printing bubble phase of the industrial revolution.

All revolutions come to an end eventually, and shale oil bubbles and pretend A.I. and solar bubbles, EV bubbles won't change that fact.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
theluckycountry
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5254
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 22 Sep 2024, 14:32:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'W')hat Peak Oil Could Look Like?

Basically what we are seeing now.


Learn definitions, and you won't look like a fool. Yet again.

Peak oil is the theorized point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production will occur, after which oil production will begin an irreversible decline.Link

Your entire post was speculation, hopes and dreams, etc etc. The most recent peak oil was 6 years ago. You are just spinning the same nebulous faux economic wet dreams that existed on this site 20 years ago. Polly want a cracker?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 22 Sep 2024, 19:47:50

Image
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
theluckycountry
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5254
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 23 Sep 2024, 17:16:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '[')img]https://i.pinimg.com/originals/0e/a2/cd/0ea2cd5c0e36759f19a825fef8bff9f3.gif[/img]


Yeah, I didn't think you be able to say anything about my response this time either.

Learn stuff. Don't be so stupid. Understand what it means to support Nazis. Try and stop. And leave peak oil alone because it can be difficult to understand the nuance of, requires some thinking, and you seem to lack the ability to do either.

For the record...you notice that when you do something expectedly stupid, you can't respond when I correct you and insult you at the same time...and all you can do is cartoons and memes?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 24 Sep 2024, 03:17:22

America passed it's peak oil date with history in 1970 and they got a little taste of what was to come. You can't escape the consequences of PeakOil

Image

Image

California, it's seen better days...

Image
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
theluckycountry
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5254
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia
Top
PreviousNext
Post a reply

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests



cron