PeakOil is You
What Peak Oil Could Look Like
Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like
by Plantagenet » Wed 29 Jun 2022, 16:30:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', ' ')It's the roller coaster that makes the recession, not the high [oil] price.
You are welcome to blame the upcoming recession on a roller coaster if you like. That explanation is a lot more fun then my explanation, which is pretty much a conventional mainstream economics explanation.
Personally, I'm going to stick with what I see happening right now in the USA ....I see high oil prices and high inflation that took off on Biden's watch .....I see these things have all kinds of bad effects on the economy. For instance, the inflation in gas prices and other things is triggering the FED into raising interest rates in an attempt to force inflation back down.....which is collapsing the stock market and hurting other parts of the economy......which almost always leads to a recession. Some say the FED actually WANTS to trigger off a recession in order to cool down inflation. And thats all going on right now out in the real world ...... YOU can watch it happening step by step every day if you follow the news.
And I see these things fit Colin Campbell's model for peak oil which is multiple boom and bust cycles in the economy, with the busts caused by spikes in oil prices when the supply gets tight, followed by recession when oil demand drops, followed by another cycle of growth followed by another bust...etc. etc. until there isn't enough oil to keep it all going. Hopefully we'll have switched over to nuclear energy or something when we get to that point, but I don't really see that happening anywhere in the world.
But if only it was really was a roller coaster......that would be so cool!!
Recession.....Wheeeeee!........down DOWN D O W N ..... here we COME!!!!!
Cheers!
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama
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Keep running between the raindrops.
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Keep running between the raindrops.
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like
by AdamB » Wed 29 Jun 2022, 17:43:03
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')And I see these things fit Colin Campbell's model for peak oil which is multiple boom and bust cycles in the economy, with the busts caused by spikes in oil prices when the supply gets tight, followed by recession when oil demand drops, followed by another cycle of growth followed by another bust...etc. etc.
')And I see these things fit Colin Campbell's model for peak oil which is multiple boom and bust cycles in the economy, with the busts caused by spikes in oil prices when the supply gets tight, followed by recession when oil demand drops, followed by another cycle of growth followed by another bust...etc. etc.
and that was all happening back in 1990 at 60 mmbbl/d global supply when Colin claimed global peak oil? Wow...must have missed it........
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like
by C8 » Thu 30 Jun 2022, 02:18:02
My guess is that if oil supply declines, the government is most likely going to step in with some form of rationing scheme. This will produce a situation where gas stations will have some periods of time where they are out of gas. People will probably keep personal storage containers at their homes to cover the outages.
It seems like whenever there is a crisis, there is a call for the government to step in and take more control over the markets. I'm not saying that this necessarily will happen soon, but if it does happen, I think the price mechanism will be muted by government control over supply- this will be presented as a way of helping the underprivileged.
High prices would produce more investment and more oil production- but climate change activists would not want that to happen. I am, of course, assuming Democratic Party control of the govt. The traditional views about how Peak Oil will play out could be altered substantially by govt. control.
It seems like whenever there is a crisis, there is a call for the government to step in and take more control over the markets. I'm not saying that this necessarily will happen soon, but if it does happen, I think the price mechanism will be muted by government control over supply- this will be presented as a way of helping the underprivileged.
High prices would produce more investment and more oil production- but climate change activists would not want that to happen. I am, of course, assuming Democratic Party control of the govt. The traditional views about how Peak Oil will play out could be altered substantially by govt. control.
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like
by Pops » Thu 30 Jun 2022, 09:52:14
What Peak Oil Could Look Like?
Right now?
Clues:
High energy price drives inflation.
High energy price crimps JIT (or what's left)
People become more violent, spiteful and deluded.
People look for politicians and political opponents to punish.
Authoritarian politicians and wannabe push the envelope, to cheers.
Countries line up for resource war. (Look up peter zeihan on youtube or the library)
Increasingly energy inefficient stopgaps are attempted (LNG, food-as-fuel, CTL, SAGD, fracking, etc)
Nationalism erupts behind mass migration, economic stagnation and plutocracy.
Labor participation falls (now lowest since Mom went to work in '74)
Money bet on a Jetson's future evaporates (NFTs? LOL).
Globalisation reverses.
Democracy withers.
The End.
PO probably isn't past, too much on the sidelines to say that, but it is obviously close. The world is set for a “turbulent period” because spare energy production capacity is running “very low,” says Shell CEO. Russian oil minister said they past peak in 2019, MBZ is rumored to have said KSA is nearly maxed out now along with 8 OPEC states in obvious decline, Permian DUCs are what has brought the US back this far but they're going fast — drilling there is all that will grow our total.
Lots of other things going on but such is exactly how I've always expected PO to present initially, lots of happy/angry hand-waving rather than facing the situation head on. Everyone will be tending to their own priorities and "selling their own book" sorta speak—and those will be the smart ones. It is more apparent than ever that a good portion of the human race has really not checked in to reality in some time so expecting or predicting any rational reaction is bound to be disappointing.
I'm much less optimistic than I've been in the past and I was pretty much a doomer on odd numbered days and weekends even then. Not that there won't be any survivors, merely that the odds of picking a good route are falling rapidly
.
Right now?
Clues:
High energy price drives inflation.
High energy price crimps JIT (or what's left)
People become more violent, spiteful and deluded.
People look for politicians and political opponents to punish.
Authoritarian politicians and wannabe push the envelope, to cheers.
Countries line up for resource war. (Look up peter zeihan on youtube or the library)
Increasingly energy inefficient stopgaps are attempted (LNG, food-as-fuel, CTL, SAGD, fracking, etc)
Nationalism erupts behind mass migration, economic stagnation and plutocracy.
Labor participation falls (now lowest since Mom went to work in '74)
Money bet on a Jetson's future evaporates (NFTs? LOL).
Globalisation reverses.
Democracy withers.
The End.
PO probably isn't past, too much on the sidelines to say that, but it is obviously close. The world is set for a “turbulent period” because spare energy production capacity is running “very low,” says Shell CEO. Russian oil minister said they past peak in 2019, MBZ is rumored to have said KSA is nearly maxed out now along with 8 OPEC states in obvious decline, Permian DUCs are what has brought the US back this far but they're going fast — drilling there is all that will grow our total.
Lots of other things going on but such is exactly how I've always expected PO to present initially, lots of happy/angry hand-waving rather than facing the situation head on. Everyone will be tending to their own priorities and "selling their own book" sorta speak—and those will be the smart ones. It is more apparent than ever that a good portion of the human race has really not checked in to reality in some time so expecting or predicting any rational reaction is bound to be disappointing.
I'm much less optimistic than I've been in the past and I was pretty much a doomer on odd numbered days and weekends even then. Not that there won't be any survivors, merely that the odds of picking a good route are falling rapidly
.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Pops - Elite
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like
by JuanP » Thu 30 Jun 2022, 10:44:05
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '[')b]It is more apparent than ever that a good portion of the human race has really not checked in to reality in some time so expecting or predicting any rational reaction is bound to be disappointing.
I'm much less optimistic than I've been in the past and I was pretty much a doomer on odd numbered days and weekends even then. Not that there won't be any survivors, merely that the odds of picking a good route are falling rapidly.
I'm much less optimistic than I've been in the past and I was pretty much a doomer on odd numbered days and weekends even then. Not that there won't be any survivors, merely that the odds of picking a good route are falling rapidly.
You got that right!
"Human stupidity has no limits" JuanP
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Re: What Peak Oil Could Look Like
by AdamB » Thu 30 Jun 2022, 11:59:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')hat Peak Oil Could Look Like?
Right now?
Right now?
More like "what 4 years after peak oil looks like".
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Clues:
High energy price drives inflation.
High energy price crimps JIT (or what's left)
People become more violent, spiteful and deluded.
People look for politicians and political opponents to punish.
Authoritarian politicians and wannabe push the envelope, to cheers.
Countries line up for resource war. (Look up peter zeihan on youtube or the library)
Increasingly energy inefficient stopgaps are attempted (LNG, food-as-fuel, CTL, SAGD, fracking, etc)
Nationalism erupts behind mass migration, economic stagnation and plutocracy.
Labor participation falls (now lowest since Mom went to work in '74)
Money bet on a Jetson's future evaporates (NFTs? LOL).
Globalisation reverses.
Democracy withers.
The End.
No clues are necessary, and all of your clues have happened before, so peak oil isn't any more a requirement of them happening than the other times they did.
Peak oil isn't hard, and is defined. There has been a maximum rate of world oil production. Done. That was sometime in 2018. Everything since then, current events wise, has been happening in a peak oil world. Happiness prior to Covid, Covid, resulting Covid effects and wars, sedition at the highest levels of the US government and authoritarian rulers doing what they have always done (like crappy economics or idiot leaders) have always been around. No need to make up fantasy land origin stories for them.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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