[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Peter Zeihan presented this idea in one of his recent Geopolitical youtube videos. As I understand it Peter Zeihan presented this idea in one of his recent Geopolitical youtube videos. As I understand it Zeihan isn't sayingisn't saying... AND Zeihan... I don't know if Zeihan's right or not

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Zeihan Zeihan Zeihan.

[Newfie]

I don’t agree with everything he says but on average he is far better than most.

As far as Russia phobe his perspective remains that; from a Russian perspective this war was necessary to block certain strategic weak points and this is the last generation when Russia would have the ability to do so. He has surly presented Russia’s motives in a more favorable light than Putin.

Further he has been saying all along “this is Russias war to loose” all along. I have not heard him repeat that in the last 6 weeks or so, but that may he because he sees the balance changing.

He is not a supporter of Putin or his measures.

[theluckycountry]

He's a rabid supporter of a dying empire is what he is. I read his latest analysis about America Ruling the world in the decades to come due solely on demographics. Demographics? If billions of people was all it took then Africa india and china would have been leading the world decades ago.

It takes either abundant cheap labor or abundant cheap energy, which are essentially the same thing. So for him to be correct in his analysis either the shale oil fields will have to miraculously go from 2:1 to 50:1 or the majority of the US public will need to begin working for slave labor rates like what built China and India's economies. Can you imagine either of those occurring? He's grasping at straws. I think you would agree that what he thinks of the state of the rest of the world is irrelevant when compared to the home nation collapsing into poverty.

I know it's hard to imagine that happening but it's happened hundreds of times throughout history and the triggers are basically always the same. Enormous debts and vast military overstretch.

[jato0072]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') read his latest analysis about America Ruling the world

[Newfie]

I fear this response is too long for a close reading, my apologies. I di try to keep it concise but it is a large topic.

If you are to follow only the brief daily videos then you may get that impression, that is inaccurate. He is predicting increased regionalization worldwide due to the USA stepping back from Breton Woods guarantees and shipping becoming more uncertain and also increasing competition for oil/energy. Demographics is only a part of the analysis.

Yes Peter is selling to an audience which is mostly corporate America but which includes to global elite, repeat gigs speaking to Indian audiences. He compartmentalizes his desires from his reports, so what he reports is what he thinks will happen not what he wants.

His predictions are all rather short term. He is looking at 20 year timelines. He makes the odd reference out further but these have little detail. Listen to him with that constraint.

His analysis is not rosey for anyone, it is just that he sees the USA sinking slower than others. His analysis is seldom about the USA alone. He looks at the NAFTA block (US, Medico, Canada) as a functioning unit. And he believes that these 3 working together are large enough and diverse enough to be more or less self supporting.

He is fairly positive on India itself being sufficiently large to create its own economy.

Africa is a hot mess because while it has much population growth it lacks the means to stabilize let alone develop.

He is pretty high in parts of SE Asia and some if SA. Japan has adapted by off shoring production to low labor cost countries in SE Asia but their labor costs are rising which will pinch Japan.

He sees great troubles ahead for Europe and China.

Regarding China Peter’s message has 2 major thrusts. The first is that their economy is really messed up due to Xi’s ham handed management. If you think debt is a problem for the USA know China’s debt problem is far worse. Second is that China has politicized theirs data gathering process, their statistics are horrid. That means they themselves do not have adequate means to monitor and manage the situation, inadequate feedback, driving in the dark without headlights. Witness the recent adjustment in population numbers, which are closer to but still far off independent analysis. They have missed their own population count by about 130 million people.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')e is predicting increased regionalization worldwide due to the USA stepping back from Breton Woods

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')George Bush Says There is No Social security problem.

[theluckycountry]

Well at the rate they are printing money, Trillions by the year, it's quite possible I suppose.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'W')ell at the rate they are printing money, Trillions by the year, it's quite possible I suppose.

[theluckycountry]

Did you read the next verse plant?
Ecc 10:20 Curse not the king, no not in thy thought; and curse not the rich in thy bedchamber: for a bird of the air shall carry the voice, and that which hath wings shall tell the matter.

The bible is a wise book. Glad I use a vpn

[Newfie]

I thought this was interesting, Russia having internal fuel shortage. Especially curbing exports.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
Summary

Oil plants repairs, weaker rouble spark fuel crunch
Fuel wholesale prices jump, retail prices are capped
Government works to solve crisis by trying to curb exports

[AgentR11]

Will be interesting to see how OPEC upcoming production cuts will play into Russia's internal fuel issue; market distortions such as retail price caps, always lead to disruption.

[Newfie]

Yes, there are so many ways to make ipulate the markets it is hard to know what the true situation is.

And the green revolution is beginning to make a dent, how big I have no idea.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '
')
And the green revolution is beginning to make a dent, how big I have no idea.

[Tuike]

Russia's Gas Production Collapses to Late-Stage USSR Levels -newsweek
The country's state energy giant Gazprom said in its latest report that gas production in the first half of 2023 was 179.45 billion cubic meters (bcm). Gazprom added that this represents a year-on-year decrease of nearly a quarter (24.7 percent), and a 26.5 percent drop in gas supplies to the domestic and foreign markets.

Independent Russian-language news outlet Agentstvo reported that Gazprom "has never had such a low production rate in its entire history" and that "the last time there was similar figure was in the Soviet Union in 1978," a year when 372.1 bcm were produced.

[theluckycountry]

Well that's good news for Russia, cause the gas is like money in the bank. Bad news for Western Europe though with their collapsing industries. A lot of that Gas used to go into fertilizer production, but who needs food hey?

2019: China is using the Lion's share, China, a BRICS member, that gets cheap gas from the world's leading supplier, Russia.



Yara International ASA is a Norwegian chemical company. It's an octupus and led the world in fertilizer production.

November 11, 2022
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ara – the world’s largest producer of AdBlue – calls on the European Union and national governments to act urgently and decisively to ensure Europe reinforces its strategic autonomy. Produced in the same plants that make fertilizers, AdBlue is essential for a functioning transport sector and for cleaning the air we breathe... The manufacture of AdBlue is an integrated part of the production of nitrogen for fertilizers. This vital industry uses natural gas as feedstock.

Weaponized by Putin, this critical resource is now at risk. Skyrocketing natural gas prices have already led to widespread production curtailments. But an outright stop of gas supplies would hit more than just the production of fertilizers. The European food chain relies on nitrogen industry outputs essential also for the meat, food processing and beverage industries. And most critically, for the unbroken low temperature-controlled network necessary for preserving food as it travels through the supply chain.

[theluckycountry]

Time for European's to connect some dots.

Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe down 56% in 2023 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 024-01-02/

White House’s Pausing Of Giant LNG Export Projects Is Just What Russia Wants

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')erhaps the single most important factor in NATO’s united stand against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the quick substitution of the cheap and plentiful Russian gas that had fueled economic expansion in Germany for decades with emergency liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from the U.S. and Qatar. Without these new supplies...

[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'H')e's a rabid supporter of a dying empire is what he is. I read his latest analysis about America Ruling the world in the decades to come due solely on demographics. Demographics? If billions of people was all it took then Africa india and china would have been leading the world decades ago.

It takes either abundant cheap labor or abundant cheap energy, which are essentially the same thing. So for him to be correct in his analysis either the shale oil fields will have to miraculously go from 2:1 to 50:1 or the majority of the US public will need to begin working for slave labor rates like what built China and India's economies. Can you imagine either of those occurring? He's grasping at straws. I think you would agree that what he thinks of the state of the rest of the world is irrelevant when compared to the home nation collapsing into poverty.

I know it's hard to imagine that happening but it's happened hundreds of times throughout history and the triggers are basically always the same. Enormous debts and vast military overstretch.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')As to why world conventional crude didn't peak until 2005, when Hubbert's curve indicated 2000 should have been the date, can be explained as a simple mathematical oversight.