[TonyPrep]

So far, the peak of all liquids production was November 2018 (though I haven't seen the last few months). Conventional oil continues its steady decline.

Whenever the overall peak comes, I very much doubt the downslope will be a mirror image of the upslope. A declining supply will likely precipitate the collapse of societies, especially those who don't have their own oil and refining capabilities.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '
')Whenever the overall peak comes, I very much doubt the downslope will be a mirror image of the upslope. A declining supply will likely precipitate the collapse of societies, especially those who don't have their own oil and refining capabilities.

[Makati1]

Total oil independence is impossible in this age. Even natural gas will not substitute for some oil products. Yes, things will change drastically negative for the US but for multiple reasons. No reasonable amount of "renewables" are possible in the next decades, to replace FFs. Resources in needed amounts do not exist to do so. But, dream if you want. That is free...for now.

[theluckycountry]

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'S')o far, the peak of all liquids production was November 2018 (though I haven't seen the last few months). Conventional oil continues its steady decline.

[TonyPrep]

There is a definition of conventional oil in this article which seems reasonable:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ight or medium density oil occurring in discrete oil fields, usually having an oil–water contact, produced by primary (own pressure, or pumping) or secondary (natural gas or water injection) recovery techniques. Currently this class of oil supplies about 70% of global ‘all-liquids’, and has constituted the vast majority of oil produced to-date.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'T')here is a definition of conventional oil in this article which seems reasonable:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ight or medium density oil occurring in discrete oil fields, usually having an oil–water contact, produced by primary (own pressure, or pumping) or secondary (natural gas or water injection) recovery techniques. Currently this class of oil supplies about 70% of global ‘all-liquids’, and has constituted the vast majority of oil produced to-date.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'N')ot impossible. Difficult.

[Newfie]

Plant,

To add to your 2 paths scenario, there exists a 3rd possibility. Both are wrong.

There is an idea that we must be able to produce the equivalent amount of energy that we do now either by fossil fuels or alternatives. From my view fossils will eventually deplete, they are not a finite resource. But renewables also have restrictions: they don't work the same every where, high latitude winter sun and non-maritime winds, and then there is the cost of repair and maintain.

Nuclear holds some hope as a electrical generation stop gap, but there still exist areas where the power to weight ratios strongly favor fossils.

What is hopeful is that human population may he reaching a natural peak, God bless Africa, they will need it. Fewer people means less power requirements, so that is hopeful. But it is rolling out too slow.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'N')ot impossible. Difficult.

[TonyPrep]

I don't think it matters what the downward curve looks like and it's something we'll only know in hindsight (if at all). What matters more is when supply will turn down, permanently. If it wasn't for tight oil, we'd be well on the downslope now and the world would look very different. No-one knows when the actual peak will be and there could still be surprises, in terms of supply. One thing is guaranteed; oil companies will do their best to delay the downslope for as long as possible.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') don't think it matters what the downward curve looks like and it's something we'll only know in hindsight (if at all).

[TonyPrep]

Four large resource volumes waiting in the wings? Do tell. Likely to be profitable?

Of course the oil companies are in it for the money, that's why they will do anything to ensure their money flow continue and even increases. That's all I meant by their doing their best to delay the downslope.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'F')our large resource volumes waiting in the wings? Do tell. Likely to be profitable?

[Newfie]

Adam wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I can name 4 other large resource volumes just waiting in the wings

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'A')dam wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I can name 4 other large resource volumes just waiting in the wings

[TonyPrep]

Thanks. Personally, I doubt any of those can be profitable and affordable at the volumes required, but you're the expert so maybe you're right. I hope not because that leads to just as much of a problem as peak oil. Even if one discounts environmental issues, perhaps thinking that humans are clever enough to comfortably inhabit an even more degraded biosphere than the one we have, continuing to expand an unsustainable civilisation with a fuel that will ultimately decline, possibly quite rapidly, is decidedly not clever.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'T')hanks. Personally, I doubt any of those can be profitable and affordable at the volumes required, but you're the expert so maybe you're right.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')The US oil shales of the Green River formation (muy caro!), the Texas ROZ (not near as expensive), the Canadian tar sands (currently underestimated in reserve size by 3x), the extra heavy of the Orinoco (the resource to reserve conversion rate there could be monstrous with more oil resources than all known oil in Saudi Arabia, its cheap, easy to get, but needs a functioning government and capital markets or outside investment), the Bazhenov of Russia (better than the Wolfcamp in the Permian),the Junggar and Songliao basins in China. You could throw in reserve growth on the North Slope if you want and are American and feel left out, that's probably as big as all the currently producing US shale formation ultimate recoveries combined, but pretty pipsqueak in the greater scheme of things. I was thinking significant, rather than just another "large enough to make the US the world's largest oil and gas producer...again"...no big whoop in the resource game.

Those are the known and are affordable (might want to exclude US Green River formation stuff if "affordable" consists of <$150/bbl prices) that the US has prototyped all the technology for already, including drill-baby-drill. Just a matter of folks wanting or needing to, for some reasonable price or another. Achieving that itself is an issue with the recent acceleration into alternatives.

Peak oil has never been about the reserves, but rather resources.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')Peak oil has never been about the reserves, but rather resources.