[TonyPrep]

The last chart I saw of oil production showed a peak in November 2018. Has it increased beyond that yet?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'T')he last chart I saw of oil production showed a peak in November 2018. Has it increased beyond that yet?

[TonyPrep]

Covid, in 2020, depressed demand which has only just started to get back to where it was. Oil storage may have helped boost supply (e.g. the US released quite a lot from its strategic reserve (making a mockery of "strategic", perhaps). Yup, consequences aren't yet too apparent but give it time. There may be temporary factors which have masked the reduced supply but that has been trending up recently, from IEA reports.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'C')ovid, in 2020, depressed demand which has only just started to get back to where it was.

[Outcast_Searcher]

As always, unless there is ACTUALLY a FUNDAMENTAL problem with there being "enough oil", then when a long enough and strong enough price signal indicates more global demand, over time, more oil should be PRODUCED to meet that demand at those higher prices (presumably for fat profits).

So there should be no surprise to the figures this time around, except for the usual all-doom-all-the-time crowd which endlessly bleats "peak oil has been reached" sans meaningful evidence. (Since they apparently NEVER learn, how could they not be endlessly surprised?)

Of course, at some point, when enough ICE demand is shifting to EV's, there will be less total global demand for crude oil (even if petrochemical and, say, asphalt demand keeps rising globally, which it might well if we keep growing the global population and much of it aspires to the middle class level of consumption). At that point, prices should moderate or even fall quite a bit, which will put the lie (over time) to the idea that THIS TIME, we're into "peak oil doom", but of course, it won't for the usual suspects.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')Of course, at some point, when enough ICE demand is shifting to EV's, there will be less total global demand for crude oil

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')
Of course, at some point, when enough ICE demand is shifting to EV's, there will be less total global demand for crude oil
(even if petrochemical and, say, asphalt demand keeps rising globally, which it might well if we keep growing the global population and much of it aspires to the middle class level of consumption).

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')It's exactly this sort of shallow thinking that has put the American project into the quagmire it's in today. A nation run on Hopium and delusions.

[theluckycountry]

Saudi Arabia says new oil cuts show teamwork with Russia is strong

July 6, 2023
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')VIENNA, July 5 (Reuters) - Russia-Saudi oil cooperation is still going strong as part of the OPEC+ alliance, which will do "whatever necessary" to support the market, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')
U.S. Shale’s Dirty Secret
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ighter shale oil is perfectly fine for making gasoline, but not the best for making diesel and jet fuel. Medium and heavy oil is needed for that.

[theluckycountry]

Russia is producing a fairly constant 10 million barrels of oil per day.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/130 ... roduction/

According to the Bank of Russia's estimate, external debt of the Russian Federation as of June 30, 2023 totaled $347.7 billion. LOL, that's a third the debt Australia carries, but equal to what we carried before the government paid every one to stay home and every business to shut down because of the Magic Virus. It is also a figure approximating the amount stolen when Russia was kicked out of SWIFT.

Now the US mines 13 million barrels a day, and it's debt... Well we don't need to go there do we
The total is off with the fairies, but the yearly addition I believe is now 2 Trillion. A lot of which btw simply goes to pay the interest on the old debt (ponzi). This alone proves that the US oil bonanza is and always was a fraud that never made a red cent! What made America Great, what promoted the 'Dream' was the abundance of conventional oil, which peaked in production in 1970 odd, and at which point American began it's inexorable decline from status as a first world nation. Mining millions of barrels of uneconomic oil hasn't changed that.



Russia it would appear is shepherding it's oil reserves, and that 10 million a day it now produces, year after year, actually exceeds the peak of US production back in 1970



Is it any wonder the US tried to take over Russia by stealth economic means after the USSR collapsed? Is it any wonder they are trying to demonize them now? It's a case of sour grapes, America blew it's fortune 50 years ago while Russia is still booming. Stalin is dead! The meme that Russia is still the evil empire is nothing more than finger pointing in the school yard by a bully who has finally been called.

[theluckycountry]

As for western analysis of Russian decline, well that's some of the worst fortune telling ever contrived as they relentlessly predict a peak only to see the Russian's surpass it.

Oxford Institute https://seekingalpha.com/article/451349 ... ere-on-out


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ast year, against all odds, Russia managed to grow its oil output despite being hit with tough sanctions, a plethora of oilfield service companies exiting the country as well as the refusal by western countries to buy its crude for the most part.

[Plantagenet]

Peter Zeihan just had an interesting take on Russian oil production.

He was discussing the recent success Ukraine has had in sinking Russian naval vessels. And a couple of days ago Ukraine sank a Russian oil tanker, and then threatened to destroy Russia's entire fleet in the Black Sea and close Russian Black Sea ports to shipping. This would be in response to Russia's attacks on Ukrainians ports and vessels.

You'd think the loss of their naval vessels would be bad news for Russia, but Zeihan thinks the loss of their oil tankers and the potential closure of the Russian Black Sea ports to all shipping could be even worse news for Russia.

According to Zeihan if Russian oil can't be exported through the Black Sea this winter then they will have to shut in their oil wells.....and those wells will freeze up in the Russian winters. And once frozen up they'll be useless. Russian would have to redrill all frozen wells to regain access to their oil field, and that could take years!!


If Russian can't export oil through the Black Sea due to Ukrainian attacks on their tankers, Russian oil wells will freeze up and then they would have to re-drill all frozen wells to regain access to their oil field, and that could take years!!

Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'A')s for western analysis of Russian decline, well that's some of the worst fortune telling ever contrived as they relentlessly predict a peak only to see the Russian's surpass it.

Oxford Institute https://seekingalpha.com/article/451349 ... ere-on-out


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ast year, against all odds, Russia managed to grow its oil output despite being hit with tough sanctions, a plethora of oilfield service companies exiting the country as well as the refusal by western countries to buy its crude for the most part.

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
') potential closure of the Russian Black Sea ports to all shipping could be even worse news for Russia.

[theluckycountry]

The problems for a nation don't start when their domestic production peaks, they start when they begin imports and domestic wealth declines accordingly. Typically these two events occur at the same time as the nation in question is continuing to grow. I don't of a single case where a nation has not followed this pattern. It's like a drug addict, they can't go back to a lower usage.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
') potential closure of the Russian Black Sea ports to all shipping could be even worse news for Russia.

[Newfie]

Tanada,

I came across this article this am.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arcti ... le-sea-ice

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')023
Regarding crude oil, China's crude oil imports from Russia surged to a record high of 2.01 million B/D in February, a roughly 20% share of the market, the data showed. Russian crude deliveries surged 42% year on year and were 33.1% higher than shipments from second-largest supplier Saudi Arabia which supplied 1.51 million B/D

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
') potential closure of the Russian Black Sea ports to all shipping could be even worse news for Russia.