Peak Oil as defined by this site:
Peak oil theory states: that any finite resource, (including oil), will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output as seen in the graph to the left.
PeakOil is You
Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
by Newfie » Tue 30 May 2023, 14:35:14
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
by theluckycountry » Tue 30 May 2023, 16:42:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'P')eak oil refers to diminishing returns, and also takes place for mining: increasing energy needed to obtain decreasing amounts of resources and of lower quality. The reason are a limited biosphere and gravity.
That's basically it. This issue is not debatable.
That's basically it. This issue is not debatable.
And once you fully embrace that reality you no longer look to the wizards of Tech to ensure your future. You take matters into your own hands and plan your future according to the realities of resource depletion. I have many plans for the future and they all involve physical tangible things rather than the digital based promises that the peoples' of the Western world seem to trust for their future happiness and security.
The Biosphere resources and the remaining resources in the ground are enormous, but they are not enough to satisfy the claims 7 billion+ people are counting on cashing in on in the future. Those resources will be repriced and we are seeing that today with food inflation and basic building material and manufacturing inflation.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
by AdamB » Tue 30 May 2023, 17:15:48
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'P')eak Oil as defined by this site:
Peak oil theory states: that any finite resource, (including oil), will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output as seen in the graph to the left.
Peak oil theory states: that any finite resource, (including oil), will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output as seen in the graph to the left.
Good thing there is no diminishing returns mentioned in our definition then either.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
by Newfie » Mon 03 Jul 2023, 19:06:33
I have mentioned before how China is on the verg of a devrowth spurt and that they have been hiding the problem, intentionally or not, in their official census data.
It seems that local governments get stipends based upon claimed population and that is easy to fudge. Others look at the the number of children entering school, and that is very different. It seems now the census numbers have been adjusted downward but not all the way. So there is some official recognition of the problem.
The below short video does a better explosion and shows 3 sets of demographic data.
Old data
New data
Adjusted by school population data
https://youtu.be/kBMSZ7v3KxQ
Japan has been at the forefront of population degrowth and have been adjusting by offshoreing manufacturing. Eventually that will run out and they will have bigger troubles ahead.
China has a multitude of problems; the inverted population pyramid, Zeno phobia (like Japan), no good places to off shore labor, HUGE debt, and a housing crisis.
They MAY try to solve some of their problems by territorial acquisition but only have a limited time to do so, like a decade.
Interesting times.
It seems that local governments get stipends based upon claimed population and that is easy to fudge. Others look at the the number of children entering school, and that is very different. It seems now the census numbers have been adjusted downward but not all the way. So there is some official recognition of the problem.
The below short video does a better explosion and shows 3 sets of demographic data.
Old data
New data
Adjusted by school population data
https://youtu.be/kBMSZ7v3KxQ
Japan has been at the forefront of population degrowth and have been adjusting by offshoreing manufacturing. Eventually that will run out and they will have bigger troubles ahead.
China has a multitude of problems; the inverted population pyramid, Zeno phobia (like Japan), no good places to off shore labor, HUGE debt, and a housing crisis.
They MAY try to solve some of their problems by territorial acquisition but only have a limited time to do so, like a decade.
Interesting times.
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
by jato0072 » Mon 03 Jul 2023, 20:31:42
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')nteresting times.
Indeed... and we are just getting warmed up.
"On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."
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Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
by theluckycountry » Tue 04 Jul 2023, 12:02:46
I came across an interesting site that "basically" discusses the collapse of civilization. It's based out of the "Olduvai theory", a data-based schema put forward around 2000 that states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal 100 years. The participants are clearly on the side of De-Growth, as is evidenced by this brief Contemplation off one of the pages.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')... it is fascinating to me how many people either ignore/deny these self-evident aspects of our predicament, or delve into magical thinking to bargain with or rationalise them away.
It also seems to me that resource depletion, especially of one of our most significantly important resources such as fossil fuels, is, as Erik Michaels argues, a symptom predicament of our overarching predicament of ecological overshoot.
And it is a lack of fully understanding this and appreciating what this overshoot entails and means, that has humanity in the crosshairs of the inevitable ‘collapse’ that accompanies it. No amount of denial, anger, and/or bargaining can change this. But homo sapiens being who they are will try.
I think that the ‘best’ we might accomplish is to create some mitigations that ‘soften’ the consequences for some.
Instead, however, we have a sociopathic elite (and a lot of snake oil salesmen) who are doubling/tripling down on the very processes that have put us in this bind: pursuit of the infinite growth chalice (i.e., economic and population growth) and encouraging widespread adoption of complex technologies (i.e., non-renewable, renewable energy-harvesting technologies).
And rather than safely decommissioning some of our most lethal and dangerous complexities (such as nuclear power plants and their radioactive wastes, chemical production and storage facilities, biosafety labs and their dangerous pathogens), whose control of we will lose as net surplus energy dwindles and eventually reaches zero, we are seeing a push to expand these. Rather than stop the degradation of our biosphere (particularly through our mineral extraction and production processes), and whose integrity is perhaps THE most important aspect of all species’ survival, we are witnessing a HUGE push to expand these in an attempt to ‘replace’ fossil fuels.
The vast majority of us just can’t seem to face up to the inconvenient idea that we are in it waist deep and sinking rather quickly. And instead of considering the notion that we stop digging out the bottom out of the hole we have fallen into, we flail and thrash against the inevitability of it all chasing processes that are making the predicament even worse and guaranteeing a future that is the opposite of the growth and expansion we have experienced the past number of centuries/millennia — that’s if any of us survive at all given the destruction we have wrought upon our world because of our overshoot.
It’s a mad, mad, mad world!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')... it is fascinating to me how many people either ignore/deny these self-evident aspects of our predicament, or delve into magical thinking to bargain with or rationalise them away.
It also seems to me that resource depletion, especially of one of our most significantly important resources such as fossil fuels, is, as Erik Michaels argues, a symptom predicament of our overarching predicament of ecological overshoot.
And it is a lack of fully understanding this and appreciating what this overshoot entails and means, that has humanity in the crosshairs of the inevitable ‘collapse’ that accompanies it. No amount of denial, anger, and/or bargaining can change this. But homo sapiens being who they are will try.
I think that the ‘best’ we might accomplish is to create some mitigations that ‘soften’ the consequences for some.
Instead, however, we have a sociopathic elite (and a lot of snake oil salesmen) who are doubling/tripling down on the very processes that have put us in this bind: pursuit of the infinite growth chalice (i.e., economic and population growth) and encouraging widespread adoption of complex technologies (i.e., non-renewable, renewable energy-harvesting technologies).
And rather than safely decommissioning some of our most lethal and dangerous complexities (such as nuclear power plants and their radioactive wastes, chemical production and storage facilities, biosafety labs and their dangerous pathogens), whose control of we will lose as net surplus energy dwindles and eventually reaches zero, we are seeing a push to expand these. Rather than stop the degradation of our biosphere (particularly through our mineral extraction and production processes), and whose integrity is perhaps THE most important aspect of all species’ survival, we are witnessing a HUGE push to expand these in an attempt to ‘replace’ fossil fuels.
The vast majority of us just can’t seem to face up to the inconvenient idea that we are in it waist deep and sinking rather quickly. And instead of considering the notion that we stop digging out the bottom out of the hole we have fallen into, we flail and thrash against the inevitability of it all chasing processes that are making the predicament even worse and guaranteeing a future that is the opposite of the growth and expansion we have experienced the past number of centuries/millennia — that’s if any of us survive at all given the destruction we have wrought upon our world because of our overshoot.
It’s a mad, mad, mad world!
https://olduvai.ca/
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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