[Plantagenet]

The US government estimates that there are about 363 BILLION barrels of recoverable unconventional oil left on the planet.

Let's put that number into perspective......let's do a thought experiment.


let's do a thought experiment.

The world consumes about roughly 100 million bbls of oil per day, or about 36 billion bbls per year.

That means that if the world was totally relying on unconventional oil then all the recoverable unconventional oil would all be consumed in only 10 years. AND it means that, for the purposes of this thought experiment, if the consumption rate of unconventional oil corresponded to a bell curve, the peak of unconventional oil production would be reached in only five years.

Thats not the real situation, of course, but the thought experiment is useful because it allows us to put these huge numbers into perspective. 363 billion bbls of unconventional oil sounds like a huge amount, but because the the world is consuming so much oil all the time, even this huge resource could be totally consumed in only 10 years if it was the exclusive source for global petroleum consumption. This suggests that the rate of oil consumption in the world is so great that even in the real world the huge amount of unconventional oil will almost inevitably peak and then be totally consumed in the next few decades......and thats assuming it all gets developed. If much of it is never developed, then it will peak all that much sooner.

Cheers!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he US government estimates that there are about 363 BILLION barrels of recoverable unconventional oil left on the planet.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he US government estimates that there are about 363 BILLION barrels of recoverable unconventional oil left on the planet.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')I find it hilarious that you are now arguing with Rockman over what unconventional oil is and Rockman ---a lifelong scientist in the Petroleum industry--- has now demonstrated once again, as I did somewhat earlier in this thread, that you don't even know what unconventional oil is.

[Plantagenet]

Oil production from the Permian in Texas remains about 10% below levels reached in 2020, in spite of the fact that for the last two years oil prices have risen to levels ca. 200-300% greater then they were in 2020.



rrc.texas.gov/oil-and-gas/major-oil-and-gas-formations/permian-basin

Normally increasing the price tends to increase the supply of a commodity.

However, so far this isn't happening with oil production from the Permian basin.

The lack of growth in oil production from the Permian is part of a larger overall trend towards lower US oil production over the last couple of years, even as oil prices go much higher.

Cheers!

[ROCKMAN]

"I was making fun of what the AAPG..." Very convenient to be able to make fun of what 38,000 petroleum geologists believe in one swipe. The vast majority in the oil capital of the world...Houston. A very scientific approach. LOL

[jawagord]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ')

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')The fact that unconventional oil production hasn't gone up in spite of a dramatic price increase demonstrates that the oil producers can't easily increase the amount of unconventional oil being produced right now even though there has been a large increase in the price of oil.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '&')quot;I was making fun of what the AAPG..." Very convenient to be able to make fun of what 38,000 petroleum geologists believe in one swipe.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jawagord', '
')Canadians have been doing their part to increase oil production. Of course if we did not have the political impediments of Obama, Biden, Trudeau blocking export pipelines and creating onerous new regulations we would be doing a lot more. When the TMX pipeline expansion is complete in 2024 and assuming the climate crazy Trudeau Liberal government is replaced there should be a sustained increase in Canadian production until 2030. Canadian production has always been limited by politics not geology.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '.')..maybe the AAPG are just slow learners?

[yellowcanoe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '.')..maybe the AAPG are just slow learners?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')No offense----but could it be that you are dyslexic? You don't seem to be able to learn some basic things.....

[Plantagenet]

THANKS to the MODS for correcting the title of this thread.



Cheers!

[Plantagenet]

China is opening up again and they are expected to need a lot more oil.

How much more oil? China just raised its import quotas for oil by 20%



china-signals-surge-oil-demand-20-increase-oil-import-quotas

Presumably this will lead to higher oil prices, allowing us to test whether even higher oil prices will finally lead to higher oil production in the Permian, or whether the Permian has now peaked.

Of course even if the Permian has peaked, there are still other sources of oil to be tapped.....for instance Joe Biden hasn't used up all the Strategic Petroleum Reserve yet!

Cheers!

[ROCKMAN]

As always predicting future (peak or otherwise) will hinge on oil prices. Increases in production will always depend on oil prices AS LONG AS THERE ARE ECONOMICLY VIABLE TARGETS TO DRILL FOR. Thus, PO in a trend, a state, a country or the world will happen when oil prices NEVER reach a level to justify developing the remaining reserves. That is not an easy dynamic to predict. Especially when it requires a prediction of the budgets of the oil companies. From: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/T ... -2022.html

"Total hydrocarbon production in the Permian Delaware Basin, the top-producing play in the Permian, will hit a record 5.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) average in 2022, according to Rystad Energy research. Spurred on by high oil prices and appealing well economics, total production is set to grow by around 990,000 boepd, almost half of which – 433,000 boepd – is new oil production. Investments in the basin are also expected to jump, surging more than 40% from 2021 levels to reach $25.7 billion this year. A significant contributor to this growth is the majors – ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP and ConocoPhillips – who last year cut Permian Delaware investments by 33% vs. 2020. This year, the majors are expected to raise investments in the basin by 60%, bringing their total to $7.4 billion. Private operators’ share is also set to balloon in 2022, rising 50% from $5.8 billion in 2021 to nearly $9 billion in 2022. Cost inflation on the services side, which is expected to range between 10% and 15% this year, is also a contributor to the higher spend levels.

The operator-specific findings are based on Rystad Energy’s research of a peer group of 61 operators in the basin. The forecasts are based on a scenario in which West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil futures averages $106 per barrel in 2022 before dropping to $70 per barrel next year and to $50 per barrel towards 2025.

“The Permian Delaware has emerged as the top oil-producing play in the US shale patch, outpacing growth in other oil-rich regions. With oil prices expected to remain elevated, 2022 promises to be another outstanding year for production growth in the region,” says Veronika Meyer, Rystad Energy vice president."

Of course, for some folks here, it's a very simple answer. I certainly wish I was that smart after working in the oil patch for 40+ years. A span during which I've witnessed a number of trends and basins reach PO. Trends and basins which will never see their former PO reached again no matter how high oil prices reach.

Always difficult to tell when a party is over and time to head for the door before you get stuck helping to clean up. LOL.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')s always predicting future (peak or otherwise) will hinge on oil prices. Increases in production will always depend on oil prices AS LONG AS THERE ARE ECONOMICLY VIABLE TARGETS TO DRILL FOR. Thus, PO in a trend, a state, a country or the world will happen when oil prices NEVER reach a level to justify developing the remaining reserves. That is not an easy dynamic to predict. Especially when it requires a prediction of the budgets of the oil companies. From: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/T ... -2022.html

[theluckycountry]

At the end of the day they can just start converting all the coal into oil, that works. And since oil is just made of Hydrogen and Carbon, two elements that are abundant on the planet, it should be a simple matter to combine them to form oil, with the aid of a few hundred Fusion Reactors.

Cheap oil, flowing or even pumped from the ground is what built the world we live in. Converting source rock into oil is an exercise in tail chasing and the Great Unconventional Oil boom of the last decade hasn't added one iota to the living standards of the Average American. In fact living standards, on average, have fallen since the conventional oil peak in 2007~2008.

Discussions about unconventional oil are of importance to the corporations gleaning off whatever profits there are there and the wall streeter types who made huge profits peddling the stock in the plays. For the man in the street this oil is meaningless though, in fact it is toxic! Just look at all the environmental degradation linked to it. The poisoning of water tables etc.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Cheap oil, flowing or even pumped from the ground is what built the world we live in.

[yellowcanoe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
Any country that has built nuke subs knows this, the Neanderthal ones running around using silly diesel/electrics might not, lacking previously mentioned talents necessary to understand the power of the atom.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yellowcanoe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')
Any country that has built nuke subs knows this, the Neanderthal ones running around using silly diesel/electrics might not, lacking previously mentioned talents necessary to understand the power of the atom.