Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
Topic locked

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby vtsnowedin » Sat 25 Jun 2022, 18:42:24

The idea that central banks can control oil prices is amusing!
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby Doly » Mon 27 Jun 2022, 15:04:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he idea that central banks can control oil prices is amusing!


I got it from somebody who was giving a talk at an event organised by the Financial Times. I don't think they invite people that they don't think are knowledgeable on finance issues.
User avatar
Doly
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4370
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby AdamB » Mon 27 Jun 2022, 15:17:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he idea that central banks can control oil prices is amusing!


I got it from somebody who was giving a talk at an event organised by the Financial Times. I don't think they invite people that they don't think are knowledgeable on finance issues.


That is true, but there is no guarentee that "some people" know any more about the topic than peak oilers do geology. You yourself gave a good example of his engineers focus on their specialty, and engineer stuff. It wouldn't be a surprise that some analyst at an event doesn't know a refinery from a well, but being economically oriented, they sure can speculate in an ignorant fashion on oil prices. I agree with VT, central banks are full of economists, and work around them along enough and you realize they do the same thing the engineers you describe do. Everything is dependent upon X. "X" of course being whatever they were trained in.

The world needs more polymaths, and fewer folks wielding a hammer, and using it regardless of whether or not it is to a nail.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby Doly » Wed 29 Jun 2022, 15:10:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I agree with VT, central banks are full of economists, and work around them along enough and you realize they do the same thing the engineers you describe do. Everything is dependent upon X. "X" of course being whatever they were trained in.


I never said that central banks were correct. I just said they probably have the power to target stable oil prices. That doesn't mean it would be a good idea to do so.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world needs more polymaths, and fewer folks wielding a hammer, and using it regardless of whether or not it is to a nail.


You don't seem to like me much, and I happen to be one of those polymaths.

And also, there are some mathematical ideas that are rather powerful and can be used in a lot of different situations.
User avatar
Doly
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4370
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby AdamB » Wed 29 Jun 2022, 18:53:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')I never said that central banks were correct. I just said they probably have the power to target stable oil prices. That doesn't mean it would be a good idea to do so.


Banks can target whatever they'd like. It'll have nothing to do with the oil markets, unless banks want to get involved directly in the business of producing and controlling volumes. Sure they can short the financing, that simply means any given project goes up in cost, but doesn't target production in the now. The best thing that has happened to oil prices over the last decade is that the marginal barrel has arrived in the US, where volumes aren't dictated by anyone other than some decent number of US E&P's doing whatever it is they want to, for themselves, and their shareholders. That is good when they are borrowing to grow, or not so good when they are happily making a mint off the surge out of Covid and the supply chain problems.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world needs more polymaths, and fewer folks wielding a hammer, and using it regardless of whether or not it is to a nail.

You don't seem to like me much, and I happen to be one of those polymaths.


Doly, I apologize if I come across that way with you. I think you are one of the most interesting, and open minded, people on this site. You don't offend easily, you at least try to think the point through, you aren't a natural peak oiler in the sense that you rabidly repeat bad ideas hoping for a different result, and you've done some actual modeling on the topic!! Makes you quite interesting.

As far as being a polymath, I don't know that you are, or are not, one any more than I am. You certainly think clearly, don't tend to get involved in the silly chatter that often permeates the place, but you also appear to avoid integrating economic thinking in terms of future modeling and ideas related to oil and gas production. And that is a fatal flaw when dealing with resource economics. Not that your energy-centric modeling requires it, but you've been around long enough to know that energy-centric modeling hasn't worked out any better than logistic curves on this topic. Charlie has been happy to prove that one for us.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', ' ')
And also, there are some mathematical ideas that are rather powerful and can be used in a lot of different situations.


Sure. And how might they be applied to economic concepts in play when it comes to causal factors of oil and natural gas production? Solving peak oil doesn't require advanced mathematics. But oh boy does it require an understanding of how oil and gas resources become production, and under what economic conditions.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby theluckycountry » Thu 30 Jun 2022, 20:06:06

Well the seven sisters controlled oil prices via their cartel for long enough. It can be done, even on a small scale like what happened after the eViL PuTiN invasion of the peace loving democratic state of...

There are no 'free' markets anymore, everything is controlled by someone and most everything by the $US and other nations response to it. Bu this is the Bitcoin thread, and the latest there is that's it dived well below 20k again, one day soon it will stay below too no doubt and start looking for the next support. Though who is buying it and why is the mystery? Perhaps it's just people terrified of another GFC on the stock market and hedging, but they should have realized by now the folly in hedging into crypto in troubled times.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
theluckycountry
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5254
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby AdamB » Thu 30 Jun 2022, 20:22:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'W')ell the seven sisters controlled oil prices via their cartel for long enough.


Such is the definition and purpose of a cartel. But they aren't the central banks cartels are the owners of the commodity acting in collusion to get the price they want.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby Doly » Fri 01 Jul 2022, 15:02:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hough who is buying it and why is the mystery?


For me who is buying bitcoin and why has always been a mystery. And I know somebody who got into bitcoin, but he was just repeating the usual points that it's independent from all national currencies and that makes it good. He didn't seem to be putting much, if any, critical thinking into it. I don't think bitcoin would have any traction if it only had buyers like him.
User avatar
Doly
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4370
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby JuanP » Fri 01 Jul 2022, 15:49:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'F')or me who is buying bitcoin and why has always been a mystery.


:lol:
I consider it gambling. It is okay to do, if you don't mind potentially losing every penny you put in. I will never, ever buy cryptocurrencies.
"Human stupidity has no limits" JuanP
JuanP
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1957
Joined: Sat 16 Aug 2014, 15:06:32
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby vtsnowedin » Fri 01 Jul 2022, 19:33:17

What gets me is the number of banks , hedge funds and institutions including retirement funds that bought into one crypto currency or an other for fear of missing out. Especially the ones that used borrowed or leveraged money to do it. Can any of these say they met their fiduciary requirements while betting their clients money?
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby theluckycountry » Fri 08 Jul 2022, 07:41:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'W')hat gets me is the number of banks , hedge funds and institutions including retirement funds that bought into one crypto currency

Can any of these say they met their fiduciary requirements while betting their clients money?


Well it's not like they care, the Pig men up top in all these institutions only care about their own futures, not ours, they will commit the money to anything that is 'recommended' to them. The GFC proved to them that they will suffer no consequences for maleficence or simple stupidity, they walk, and with pockets full.

I have none of my life savings with these dogs aside from deposits in four banks ,which I can, and will, transfer into hard assets as soon as I perceive the wheels are falling off. Banking collapses don't happen overnight but market crashes do and the rules with pension funds, here at least, make it impossible to move your money fast. Here it takes two weeks minimum for any re-allocation to be processed.

Anyone with half a brain would be out of the markets now, we've had the big gains and now it's time for the big losses. So why do most people stay in? They don't want to pay the taxes on their gains. It's a trap by design.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
theluckycountry
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5254
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby vtsnowedin » Fri 08 Jul 2022, 12:18:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'W')hat gets me is the number of banks , hedge funds and institutions including retirement funds that bought into one crypto currency

Can any of these say they met their fiduciary requirements while betting their clients money?


Well it's not like they care, the Pig men up top in all these institutions only care about their own futures, not ours, they will commit the money to anything that is 'recommended' to them. The GFC proved to them that they will suffer no consequences for maleficence or simple stupidity, they walk, and with pockets full.

I have none of my life savings with these dogs aside from deposits in four banks ,which I can, and will, transfer into hard assets as soon as I perceive the wheels are falling off. Banking collapses don't happen overnight but market crashes do and the rules with pension funds, here at least, make it impossible to move your money fast. Here it takes two weeks minimum for any re-allocation to be processed.

Anyone with half a brain would be out of the markets now, we've had the big gains and now it's time for the big losses. So why do most people stay in? They don't want to pay the taxes on their gains. It's a trap by design.

With a two week transfer time frame can you afford to wait to secure your hard assets?
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby AdamB » Fri 08 Jul 2022, 12:59:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'H')e didn't seem to be putting much, if any, critical thinking into it.


Be honest, from your perspective as someone who is technically oriented. Do you know many who DO put critical thinking into..."it"? Whatever "it" might be?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby AdamB » Fri 08 Jul 2022, 13:01:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'W')hat gets me is the number of banks , hedge funds and institutions including retirement funds that bought into one crypto currency or an other for fear of missing out. Especially the ones that used borrowed or leveraged money to do it. Can any of these say they met their fiduciary requirements while betting their clients money?


Of course they can. As long as they correctly quantified the risk/reward of the investment, up to and including the entire investment vanishing in a scam, crash, theft or folks realizing that you only make money at the front end of a ponzi scheme.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby theluckycountry » Mon 11 Jul 2022, 15:21:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')With a two week transfer time frame can you afford to wait to secure your hard assets?


That's for pension funds, or as they are called here, superannuation funds. I have no money to speak of there but I do in bank accounts and that money can be transferred into government bonds or allocated gold bullion in the WA government mint with the click of a mouse.

My nephew asked me why I thought Aussie bonds were safe but not the banks and I explained to him the bonds are Aussie government debt and to default on that the Australian government would have to declare bankrupt. Not likely given our position as one of the best economies in the world. Banks on the other hand are just corporations and they can go bankrupt at the drop of a hat, I said.

He struggled to grasp the concept, a testament to a life of being programed that banks are the pillar of society. I explained about the new legislation, rushed through Parliament in 2021 that allows his deposits to be seized. He was unconvinced.

After the call I wondered how many people had had similar conversations with the 'unconvinced' back in 1933 just before the collapse of the banks? Back then millions lost their life savings because they thought "The banks could never do that" Ahhh, simple souls, simple minded people...

https://www.newcastleherald.com.au/stor ... -deposits/
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
theluckycountry
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5254
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2021, 18:08:48
Location: Australia
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby AdamB » Mon 11 Jul 2022, 16:21:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')My nephew asked me why I thought Aussie bonds were safe but not the banks and I explained to him the bonds are Aussie government debt and to default on that the Australian government would have to declare bankrupt. Not likely given our position as one of the best economies in the world.


As long as "best" equals 13th largest behind other pipsqueaks like Canada and South Korea. And Italy and Russia. I mean really, like maybe 6% of the size of the US economy? BRAZIL is bigger than you Chinese mining slaves. Germany, Japan and India. And properly, your GDP should just be assigned to the UK, seriously when are you folks going to grow a pair and dump the Monarchy? Let me guess, your wonderful government took your guns away, or your insignificance in the world makes you a bunch of cowards when the Queen shows up requiring someone to kiss the ring while bending the knee? Are you first in line for that duty Lucky? :)
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby vtsnowedin » Mon 11 Jul 2022, 19:36:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')My nephew asked me why I thought Aussie bonds were safe but not the banks and I explained to him the bonds are Aussie government debt and to default on that the Australian government would have to declare bankrupt. Not likely given our position as one of the best economies in the world.


As long as "best" equals 13th largest behind other pipsqueaks like Canada and South Korea. And Italy and Russia. I mean really, like maybe 6% of the size of the US economy? BRAZIL is bigger than you Chinese mining slaves. Germany, Japan and India. And properly, your GDP should just be assigned to the UK, seriously when are you folks going to grow a pair and dump the Monarchy? Let me guess, your wonderful government took your guns away, or your insignificance in the world makes you a bunch of cowards when the Queen shows up requiring someone to kiss the ring while bending the knee? Are you first in line for that duty Lucky? :)

Best and biggest are two very different things. When you get it down to GDP per person OZ ranks 21 out of 198. Not bad, and then consider that some of those ranked above them get there by large oil revenues that are in the hands of a few and do not trickle down to the average citizen. A young person in Australia looking at other counties that have better opportunities for his or her advancement is looking at a very short list.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby AdamB » Mon 11 Jul 2022, 21:14:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')Best and biggest are two very different things.


Indeed. But residents of a Chinese mining operation aren't the kind to spot small meanings in words. :)

They don't call the denizens of where Lucky lives banana benders because of their intellectual acumen. Dem wordz stuf be hards.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') When you get it down to GDP per person OZ ranks 21 out of 198. Not bad, and then consider that some of those ranked above them get there by large oil revenues that are in the hands of a few and do not trickle down to the average citizen.


Pretty pathetic when it is 6% or so of the US of A's. Their entire mining colony has an economy the likes of...FLORIDA. I would have loved to compare their economy to Vermonts, but that state of yours is pretty meager in the GDP department VT.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') A young person in Australia looking at other counties that have better opportunities for his or her advancement is looking at a very short list.


Sure. All little league players look up and hope to be MLB players one day. They can't build their own CARS Vt. Cars! You and I could probably do that, give us enough to fire up a factory and we could get it done. Banana benders can't.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby vtsnowedin » Mon 11 Jul 2022, 22:03:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') A young person in Australia looking at other counties that have better opportunities for his or her advancement is looking at a very short list.


Sure. All little league players look up and hope to be MLB players one day. They can't build their own CARS Vt. Cars! You and I could probably do that, give us enough to fire up a factory and we could get it done. Banana benders can't.

OK so can you give us an example of a country an Australian young person with say a BS in engineering, or some other professional field, could immigrate to where they would be better off then just staying in OZ and working there. Keep in mind the the other countries immigration laws and language barriers do matter. If they won't let you in or you can't speak the required language a heaven on earth is of no use to you.
I'll give you that a few singers and actors/actresses have done well moving to the USA and Hollywood but that is the exception to the rule.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: Bitcoin & crypto? Pt. 2

Postby AdamB » Mon 11 Jul 2022, 23:10:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') A young person in Australia looking at other counties that have better opportunities for his or her advancement is looking at a very short list.


Sure. All little league players look up and hope to be MLB players one day. They can't build their own CARS Vt. Cars! You and I could probably do that, give us enough to fire up a factory and we could get it done. Banana benders can't.

OK so can you give us an example of a country an Australian young person with say a BS in engineering, or some other professional field, could immigrate to where they would be better off then just staying in OZ and working there.


I have no idea. I'm American, there wasn't any other place I've ever thought was worth running off to. Although I am partial to Canada. If a young person gets that BS in engineering I'd think the first thing on their mind would be fleeing the Chinese mining colony for anywhere the Queen might allow them. Certainly New Zealand should be a step up, and they can just about swim from the mining camps to their if they had any gumption.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')Keep in mind the the other countries immigration laws and language barriers do matter. If they won't let you in or you can't speak the required language a heaven on earth is of no use to you.


Sure. And I can't imagine any other country on the planet needing immigrants worthy only of banana bending. Maybe some of those banana republics in Central and South America?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top
PreviousNext
Topic locked

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests



cron