[JohnDenver]

ASPO (the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas) is the pre-eminent world authority on peak oil, and is led by the world's top peak oil geologist, Colin Campbell.

In their most recent newsletter, ASPO went on the record stating that peak oil occurred in 2004 (link). So I think we need to get the word out, and get everybody on the same page. We don't need to talk anymore about when peak oil is going to happen, or waste time in any more discussions about what might happen to the world when PO occurs. We are already in the post-peak period, and need to start talking about peak oil in the past tense.

To this end, I think the "Event Countdown" feature on the front page needs to be revised to reflect the new facts. Deffeyes, WOCAP, ASPO and the USGS were all wrong. Peak oil already happened in 2004, so there is no longer any need to inform people of these erroneous forecasts.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'A')SPO (the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas) is the pre-eminent world authority on peak oil, and is led by the world's top peak oil geologist, Colin Campbell.

In their most recent newsletter, ASPO went on the record stating that peak oil occurred in 2004 (link). So I think we need to get the word out, and get everybody on the same page. We don't need to talk anymore about when peak oil is going to happen, or waste time in any more discussions about what might happen to the world when PO occurs. We are already in the post-peak period, and need to start talking about peak oil in the past tense.

To this end, I think the "Event Countdown" feature on the front page needs to be revised to reflect the new facts. Deffeyes, WOCAP, ASPO and the USGS were all wrong. Peak oil already happened in 2004, so there is no longer any need to inform people of these erroneous forecasts.

[khebab]

JD, do you know why it was revised downward, from 2006 to 2004?

[Sparaxis]

Nice tongue-in-cheek.

Peak liquids will be the turning point. Peak conventional just marks, finally and definitively, the end of cheap oil.

But I don't know why anyone here thinks there's some central database collecting production figures from every country and field around the world every day that we can make such calculations with decimal precision. For crissake, we count ships in the Persian Gulf to estimate ME OPEC production! I think it's going to be several years--post data-collection and post-data-revision, before such a claim can be made definitively.

[Heineken]

Since there is no way to be absolutely sure when PO happens, I use the gas price at the Exxon station in town as a proxy. When the price of the cheapest grade gets gets over, say, $3.50/gal and stays above it, I'll know it's time for panic mode. The price of gasoline per gallon in the United States is far more important than any other measure, and we're still a long way from $3.50, at least in this corner of Virginia.

[MicroHydro]

I told my friends and all the relatives I like. But I will not tell my hateful racist warmongering fundamentalist uncle, brother, or cousins. They will have to hear it from Jesus.

[erl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'I') told my friends and all the relatives I like. But I will not tell my hateful racist warmongering fundamentalist uncle, brother, or cousins. They will have to hear it from Jesus.

[Deleterius]

And the Silence from God and Jesus since nearly two millenaries is quite sPEAKing for itself ..... Deal with ur mistakes alone

[Doly]

I did a thread in 2004 with the title "Has peak oil happened in 2004?" or something like that, based on the fact that the symptoms of economy were exactly the ones expected for peak oil. The vast majority disagreed and went with the official forecast.

I feel

[clv101]

JD, what do you expect to happen with a peak in conventional oil? The UK's oil extraction peaked in 1999 - nothing special happened here. The peak in conventional oil has been compensated for by growth in non-conventional oil. Regional peaks or global peaks of individual types of oil are not that significant in themselves.

The peak oil scenario kicks in when the peak of all-oil extraction occurs.

[Antimatter]

I'm willing to bet he (Campbell) will end up backpedaling.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', 'J')D, what do you expect to happen with a peak in conventional oil?

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sparaxis', 'P')eak liquids will be the turning point.

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', 'J')D, what do you expect to happen with a peak in conventional oil?

[Licho]

Last year OPEC released statement, that it's producing at capacity and cannot increase production any more - I greeted it with "we peaked" style posts in these forums back then..
It still seems to me, that this might well have been a peak of oil, and we are living in post-peak "apocalypse" almost one year.
Price of oil is high, but somehow, predictions about rapid collapse, dieoff or economic crash didnt turn reality..
(Gas is now more expensive in dollars than few years ago, but not in euros

[Doly]

Like I always said, it's soft landing. But not quite a non-event. It will get worse.

[Permanently_Baffled]

Lets not get premature and tempt fate here guys! Oil production hasn't started to decline yet (we are on a plateau). This is when we will find out how messy it will get !

[khebab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Licho', 'L')ast year OPEC released statement, that it's producing at capacity and cannot increase production any more - I greeted it with "we peaked" style posts in these forums back then..
It still seems to me, that this might well have been a peak of oil, and we are living in post-peak "apocalypse" almost one year.
Price of oil is high, but somehow, predictions about rapid collapse, dieoff or economic crash didnt turn reality..
(Gas is now more expensive in dollars than few years ago, but not in euros