[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', 'B')TW, this has nothing to do with white (as you seem to suggest).

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd then of course we sold them down the river with globalization rather than fixing the flaws in their labor organizations (not that it was everyone else's requirement to do that for them).

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'T')he USA could also have encouraged the rise of standards of living in other countries with foreign policy decisions, but in general everyone thought it would be just great to have poor people in other countries building stuff and just buy the stuff from them. The chickens have come home to roost, and it was a pretty predictable outcome, in fact.

[theluckycountry]

These issues of decline, wealth gaps and mass immigration causing discontent are nothing new, you can trace examples all the way back to ancient Rome. I hate bringing up the Roman Empire, it's like bringing up Hitler to make a point, but it is the best match, right down to the welfare system, the political system and the wealthy growing wealthier with the average Roman citizen being pushed onto the dole by local and offshore cheap labor. My point is, there is no solution to the decline of empire. It's not a problem, it's a common dilemma, and dilemmas don't have solutions only outcomes.

No political party or structure could prevent it, just look at Japan as an example. They were all set to take over the world in the 1990's, but then all the wheels fell off? And that was a nation with strict political control; a very united population, no immigration to speak of, and very little in the way of unionization or Green warriors fouling industry. If they couldn't consolidate and move on to greater highs what hope does a place like the US have? There is no point in analyzing Japans' fate, what the triggers were, blah blah blah, the fact is that it grew to global prominence without any native energy or mineral reserves to speak of, totally at odds with every other recent empire which grew fat on coal and oil. Yet it floundered and fell into obscurity even having ongoing access to all the inflows it needed.

Japan was a victim of it's own success, it's ever higher wages doomed it, as it doomed England before it, and the US as well. That's one of the major triggers for Rome's collapse as well. Hundreds of thousands of disillusioned 'former' workers pushed onto the scrap heap. And it's unavoidable too, it's a natural part of the progress of a nation and any attempt to stop it, by increasing wages or putting up tariffs will fail because all these nations I refer to grew fat by exporting to the world. Once another nation in the world leverages it's cheap labor, either willingly or by force from the reining Empire, they undercut the empires labor pool and you're off to the races. Millions of workers out of a job and all the product (and profit) made by offshore workers.

People don't like to see their living standards decline, they will fight back, rebel! The solution to that is to distract them from reality with bread and circuses, food stamps and football, and to divide them so they are fighting each other, Politics, race issues, vaccine compliance, anything that gets the job done. Even if they existed, which they don't! There is no way of people on this forum ever coming up with and agreeing on viable solutions to the problems we face because of these divisions.

The Alternate energy circus being a chief division I would suggest and the political and race issues following. Someone above suggested a switch to Hybrid cars will save the US lifestyle lol. No mention of the overall cost to do this of course, the trillions of barrels of oil needed now and in the future to replace the fleet and then replace them again when their batteries die. These schemes are all just smoke and mirrors by corporations fighting over the last profits of the oil age. The outcome for us on the street (not solution) is the same as Rome's was. poverty and dieoff for the masses, dissolution of the Empire of global energy gluttony with those that can fleeing to safe havens with their wealth.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'T')hese issues of decline, wealth gaps and mass immigration causing discontent are nothing new, you can trace examples all the way back to ancient Rome. I hate bringing up the Roman Empire.... but it is the best match, right down to the welfare system, the political system and the wealthy growing wealthier with the average Roman citizen being pushed onto the dole by local and offshore cheap labor. My point is, there is no solution to the decline of empire. It's not a problem, it's a common dilemma, and dilemmas don't have solutions only outcomes.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')A similar thing is going to happen to our modern civilization over the next few decades. Global warming is going to create climate chaos, and it will destroy those habitats that 7 billion humans currently depend on for our food supplies.
Cheers!

[Pops]

People in the US are more angry, spiteful, self-destructive these last 10 years than I can ever recall. Even during the protests and bombings of the 70s there wasn't this kind of hair-trigger animosity at every school board meeting, airline flight, yogurt shop showdown. Add in a couple of guns for every man, woman and child; and entire regions of the country in thrall to know-nothing politics and conspiracies and the prognosis isn't good.

And this is at the height, the peak if you will, of technological civilization. Hard to fathom how hard people look for an excuse to be unhappy in the midst of plenty. I guess it is the nature of monkeys to throw shit, vie for dominance, fool themselves into suspending disbelief to accept their own narrative. Society has always cycled through war and peace, feast and famine and we are too many now to peacefully transition to a lower energy lifestyle without making vast numbers of those people pay for our discomfort. We have gone about a lifetime without bringing down something really bad, of our own making, on ourselves.

Having said that, and regarding energy, I believe renewables are going to work fine, 20 years ago I wasn't so sure. EROI is a crappy indicatornot only because of the problem of setting boundaries but because it doesn't consider time. Time is important, after all we don't say "OMG we'll run out of oil completely in 312 years!" What we are concerned with is the rate of flow, the Barrels Per Day. A viable alternative source will pay back the energy needed to produce another unit quickly and we're getting there finally.

Currently the payback period for PV for example seems to be around 1 year plus or minus depending on conditions including controls but not counting storage. With a guaranteed panel life of 20 years and a practical life of double that at lower output, I think we can do fine. Current estimates of fracked LTO are 12:1 and everyone thinks they are a miracle — even though they've bankrupted innumerable companies.

I'll stipulate that we can do fine as individuals if a) we stay out of the way of the hoard, b) attempt some level of individual resilience. The possibility of an afford independent energy source is huge. Add in some water and spuds and there you go. Every story I see about remote work gives me hope.

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') believe renewables are going to work fine

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') believe renewables are going to work fine

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')We need a big buy in to move fast enough.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ') I agree 100% with you that there are lessons to be learned from ancient history.

However, there is one key difference now......the difference now is that when Rome fell....it was just a regional empire, and it was immediately followed by other regional empires..... such as the Byzantine, Seluicid, Ottoman, Austrian-Hungarian, British, etc. etc. etc.

But our global industrial civilization won't be followed by another global civilization....

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'P')eople in the US are more angry, spiteful, self-destructive these last 10 years than I can ever recall. Even during the protests and bombings of the 70s there wasn't this kind of hair-trigger animosity at every school board meeting, airline flight, yogurt shop showdown...... entire regions of the country in thrall to know-nothing politics and conspiracies and the prognosis isn't good.

[JuanP]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'P')eople in the US are more angry, spiteful, self-destructive these last 10 years than I can ever recall. Even during the protests and bombings of the 70s there wasn't this kind of hair-trigger animosity at every school board meeting, airline flight, yogurt shop showdown...... entire regions of the country in thrall to know-nothing politics and conspiracies and the prognosis isn't good.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')We need a big buy in to move fast enough.

[mousepad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')I do think a part of transition is power down, for the rich world anyway,

One definition of collapse is declining complexity.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', ' ')But then again, I have to ask the question. If power down means less complexity. The first thing that will go is the high tech, and high tech is required to maintain the renewables. Is it even possible to power down?

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is an ongoing juggle, supply falls > prices rise > more conservation (waste eliminated) ...
And repeat.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is an ongoing juggle, supply falls > prices rise > more conservation (waste eliminated) ...
And repeat.

[theluckycountry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '
')
Yes. But then again, I have to ask the question. If power down means less complexity. The first thing that will go is the high tech, and high tech is required to maintain the renewables. Is it even possible to power down?

For example. I bought a fancy heat pump water heater ...it requires specialized parts and electronics no local service man can repair. They can only replace modules, made possible by high tech and its high tech supply chain. I have my doubt, that once we power down, fancy water heaters are still possible.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'A')nd what are seeing? A breakdown of the complex international shipping system and of the national shipping system.