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The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 06 Sep 2021, 18:59:39

The central valley of California is not far from LA. Plenty of food production there.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 1

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 06 Sep 2021, 23:58:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')Now we have suburbia, hundreds, and in some places approaching thousands of square miles of houses, with NO farming. No Food. Los Angeles has a population of about 4 million, but Greater Los Angeles, 19 million.

In the real world, oil, and fossil fuels in general, will NOT suddenly "go away". If there is a problem with insufficient supply over time, it will be reflected in higher prices. Gasoline CAN be produced from natural gas and coal, for example. We're not running out of either of those things anytime soon, even if crude oil does become relatively scarce in coming decades.

If the price of fuel becomes a serious problem, then the common practice today of importing food from all over the world in all seasons so people in wealthy countries can have what they're used to virtually every week, year round will slow or stop, because eventually, it will cost too much to, say, have various varieties of fresh fruit every week

But in the first world with LOTS of food of MANY types available, me not having the fresh and tasty blueberries, blackberries, raspberries and strawberries I like every week all winter (for example) does NOT mean everyone is going to suddenly be starving to death. And of course, even if it isn't as fresh, there is such a thing as canned fruit, canned veggies, etc.

Get just a TINY grip on reality.

There are countries with a giant net food deficit, re production vs. consumption of overall food. If there is a big global food / transport issue, they will have a serious problem. The US isn't one of them.

https://www.vox.com/a/explain-food-america

The above story, re the link is dated, but the idea that except for desert areas, vast areas of the US lacks food production is clearly absurd.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agricultu ... ted_States

And re overall trends, clearly the US is producing more food over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 1

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 07 Sep 2021, 09:59:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')https://www.vox.com/a/explain-food-america


this is a great page.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 1

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 07 Sep 2021, 12:55:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mousepad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')https://www.vox.com/a/explain-food-america


this is a great page.

Glad you liked it. Stumbled upon it after a bit searching re US food production.

Vox is often too far left for me, but I always appreciate good fact based articles from any source if it focuses on the material vs. the politics.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 07 Sep 2021, 18:44:48

That was a fun read
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 09 Sep 2021, 18:13:30

From 70% farm workers in 1840 to 3% in 2000, lots of job opportunities there in in the decades to come no doubt.
They could have omitted the "Farm output in Billions of dollars" since this has a weak relation to how much food is produced given recent monetary inflation. Interestingly, not in the article, there was a 100 year period, from roughly 1800 to 1900 when there was mild deflation across consumer prices. That was the gold currency era. Innovation brought falling prices and un-inflatable gold kept them low.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 19 Sep 2021, 08:55:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', 'F')rom 70% farm workers in 1840 to 3% in 2000, lots of job opportunities there in in the decades to come no doubt.
They could have omitted the "Farm output in Billions of dollars" since this has a weak relation to how much food is produced given recent monetary inflation. Interestingly, not in the article, there was a 100 year period, from roughly 1800 to 1900 when there was mild deflation across consumer prices. That was the gold currency era. Innovation brought falling prices and un-inflatable gold kept them low.

I think you point out pretty well a danger that the world economy always faces: deflation. When the perception of any market is that prices will continue falling rather than that prices could go in any direction, then assets lose value relative to cash. Eventually, this could produce a hoarding of cash, even in a data driven economy. The rate of borrowing would likely suffer, at least temporarily, below some imaginary refresh rate or other. The built in disincentive to borrow might even cause those who desperately need to borrow to think twice. The money supply would shrink. Cash would increase in value due to its lower supply relative to demand. The last thing you need in that situation, though, is to stop the bargain hunters from coming in. Doing that would prevent the market from setting a floor.

After that, you need something inflatable. The currency you use will have to expand and contract according to the needs of the people. With fractional reserve banking and fiat currency, the money supply reacts to the people's activity through the means of their level of borrowing. It expands or contracts to meet their needs. The whole thing is based upon people giving their word. What deflation tends to be is when more people renege on their word than the reserve capacity of the system can handle. That usually causes a short term shock to the size of the money supply. When this happens, government input tends to make all the difference. Just inventing money would normally be inflationary. You need that built in structure to help policy, if it gets that bad.

Switching to something like bitcoin, which is just alt gold, is anti-democratic. It puts the power of who gets the money into the hands of the king. It doesn't matter if the people are the government, and the government is the king. The people have a hard time resisting operating as the tyranny of the majority. Imagine being shit on in real life like those narcissistic reality show TV contestants are, all because you don't match up well to the norm. That's what it's like to experience the tyranny of the majority. Bitcoin, just like a gold standard, gives "them" that power. All of the gold always belongs to the king. He can take it at will from any individual. Never forget that. And, I don't think it is possible either to escape the effect on your soul of having to ingratiate yourself to the largess of the king.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 19 Sep 2021, 12:53:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')I think you point out pretty well a danger that the world economy always faces: deflation. When the perception of any market is that prices will continue falling rather than that prices could go in any direction, then assets lose value relative to cash. Eventually, this could produce a hoarding of cash, even in a data driven economy.


Inflation it seems comes into effect toward the end of an empires run. It, money printing, is a way of maintaining the armies and institutions that used to be funded by conventional means. There wasn't much inflation between 1030 and 1945, in fact there was deflation. Back in the 1800's America experienced (under the gold money standard) mild deflation for a hundred years abouts as innovation with railroads etc lowered costs. Once they went to paper currency though, that went out the window.

I'm not complaining, we have achieved a lot under the bullsh*t fiat inflation, I wouldn't have my cool cars and motorcycles without it I am sure. But the piper has to be paid! And I for one don't want to be the one paying. Thankfully there are enough people mired in debt and trapped in the stockmarkets by fear of capital gains tax that I can slip through the cracks.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Switching to something like bitcoin, which is just alt gold, is anti-democratic.


They say that about altcoins, and they are hoarded just like gold is, but they don't have enough history for me to trust them. And they are far too volatile for my tastes. If they had been around for 40 or 50 years I might go in but to me they look like any technology, they could be a segway, the ipod, the mini-CD. Sure they are great now, but what if they get superseded in 5 or 10 years? I like things with a few thousand years of proven utility behind them.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 19 Sep 2021, 15:24:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')I like things with a few thousand years of proven utility behind them.

That pretty much limits you to flint spear points, copper axes and a willing wife. :)
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 19 Sep 2021, 17:28:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')I like things with a few thousand years of proven utility behind them.

That pretty much limits you to flint spear points, copper axes and a willing wife. :)

Good point. Though if he'd not exaggerated and said, "hundreds of years", as I suspect might have accurately reflected where he was going, like for gold, I'd be right there with him.

I'd be the FIRST to admit I might end up being wrong, but I'm still FAR more comfortable with actual physical gold as an inflation hedge than I am with any cryptocurrency, and the hackers and back doors and potential fraud that come with them. REGARDLESS of how popular they might be with Youtube pumpers in the past 5 days or months or years.

And unlike a huge majority of the internet article commenters, if I end up very wrong, I have no problem admitting that. Despite, say, the huge number of stock holders of tech stock X on, say, "Seeking Alpaha", I don't frequently claim how vastly superior my returns are likely to be vs. historical returns, on internet article A on stock S.

Maybe it's perspective. Maybe it's honesty. Maybe history doesn't matter. But when the empty "I am the greatest" commenters, lacking substance, are proven right because they held stock S recently, I'll believe it -- just as I'll believe the constant insta-doomers are generally "right", despite their abysmal track record for at least the previous 50 years.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 06:50:58

Well I would certainly take gold over any of the rat poison crypto currencies. I just like the ability of stocks to generate dividends and price growth which happens on a more or less regular basis. Which stocks to buy and hold becomes the problem and holding through downturns takes discipline which many find they don't have at the time they need it.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 11:38:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'W')ell I would certainly take gold over any of the rat poison crypto currencies. I just like the ability of stocks to generate dividends and price growth which happens on a more or less regular basis. Which stocks to buy and hold becomes the problem and holding through downturns takes discipline which many find they don't have at the time they need it.

Yes. The world could fundamentally change re economics, but unless and until that is established -- the track record for broad stock indexes over a multi-decade time period is fantastic, including the dividends. And it's the most reliable broad asset class if held persistently for at least 3 decades, re providing solid positive real (inflation adjusted) returns.

And it takes NO skill and only a little money to open, say, a Vanguard S&P 500 index or Total US Market index or International Index fund, and DCA (dollar cost average) into it for X decades, say once a month, or once a paycheck, and reinvest the dividends. I just made it purely automatic. No muss, no fuss, no temptation to try to time things.

As you've pointed out on this site in stock market discussions, one doesn't have to do better than the overall market to do very well indeed, over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 20 Sep 2021, 12:32:21

Well I have the "no skill " qualification well covered.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 21 Sep 2021, 04:55:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')I like things with a few thousand years of proven utility behind them.

That pretty much limits you to flint spear points, copper axes and a willing wife. :)


You don't have much to offer here do you? Other than what we can see if we watch the TV set every night. You should turns your off for a couple of years and get all that programming out of your head.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Sep 2021, 15:07:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', ' ')I like things with a few thousand years of proven utility behind them.

That pretty much limits you to flint spear points, copper axes and a willing wife. :)


You don't have much to offer here do you?


Depends. Folks have been selling the death of suburbia through all the real and claimed peak oils spanning the entire existence of this website, and look what happened to suburbia. (Hint...it didn't die)

And VT was spot on, he certainly didn't pick the time frame. It was an amusing comment coming from someone reveling in fast motorcycles. You take it for a spin after an evening of fixing the buggy and feeding the horse getting ready to commute to work on them the next morning?
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 23 Sep 2021, 06:01:01

https://news.yahoo.com/tucker-carlson-f ... 50714.html
Tucker Carlson flames Gov. Gavin Newsom on the 'death of suburbs'

As the quality of the homes in the suburbs have declined over the past decades they are ripe for such demolition and replacement by small unit blocks, as portrayed in the video. While this trend continues, and the number of rental homes in burbs increases in proportion of owner occupiers, we will see a general degradation of lifestyle there as indeed we see now. Ultimately of course the loss of cheap oil which feeds them will make them all but untenable as places to exist. It would be akin to living in a ghost town, which many do before the final abandonment phase.

Rapid Urban Abandonment in 6th Century Rome
At its height, the City of Rome numbered just over a million inhabitants. By the late 6th century C.E., the population was perhaps 30,000. According to Pope Gregory the Great, at one time after the Gothic Wars, the City was almost completely abandoned. What would it be like to live in an urban hull, with so many large imperial constructions falling to pieces?
https://www.unrv.com/forum/topic/11353- ... tury-rome/
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 24 Sep 2021, 22:40:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '
')
Rapid Urban Abandonment in 6th Century Rome
At its height, the City of Rome numbered just over a million inhabitants. By the late 6th century C.E., the population was perhaps 30,000. According to Pope Gregory the Great, at one time after the Gothic Wars, the City was almost completely abandoned. What would it be like to live in an urban hull, with so many large imperial constructions falling to pieces?
https://www.unrv.com/forum/topic/11353- ... tury-rome/


We've got something like that going on in Detroit right now.

The population of Detroit has dropped by about 2/3 over the last 70 years. Its gone from 1.85 million to 630,000 and its still going down.

census-detroit-population-decline-u-s

The city is filled with the rusting hulks of abandoned factories and stores. While not as grand as the ruins of Rome, the ruins of Detroit are nonetheless startling..

Image
Like a new Rome, thousands of abandoned buildings are rotting and collapsing right now in Detroit.

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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 25 Sep 2021, 04:33:12

Rome ran out of fire wood within ox cart distance and stored wine in jars made of lead. Detroit was driven down by union activity and Democratic politicians.
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 25 Sep 2021, 11:58:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theluckycountry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')I think you point out pretty well a danger that the world economy always faces: deflation. When the perception of any market is that prices will continue falling rather than that prices could go in any direction, then assets lose value relative to cash. Eventually, this could produce a hoarding of cash, even in a data driven economy.


Inflation it seems comes into effect toward the end of an empires run. It, money printing, is a way of maintaining the armies and institutions that used to be funded by conventional means. There wasn't much inflation between 1030 and 1945, in fact there was deflation. Back in the 1800's America experienced (under the gold money standard) mild deflation for a hundred years abouts as innovation with railroads etc lowered costs. Once they went to paper currency though, that went out the window.

I'm not complaining, we have achieved a lot under the bullsh*t fiat inflation, I wouldn't have my cool cars and motorcycles without it I am sure. But the piper has to be paid! And I for one don't want to be the one paying. Thankfully there are enough people mired in debt and trapped in the stockmarkets by fear of capital gains tax that I can slip through the cracks.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Switching to something like bitcoin, which is just alt gold, is anti-democratic.


They say that about altcoins, and they are hoarded just like gold is, but they don't have enough history for me to trust them. And they are far too volatile for my tastes. If they had been around for 40 or 50 years I might go in but to me they look like any technology, they could be a segway, the ipod, the mini-CD. Sure they are great now, but what if they get superseded in 5 or 10 years? I like things with a few thousand years of proven utility behind them.

Yes, but aren't we talking about a time like no other in human history. The economy ran like in no other time in history, on a broad measure toward everyone, only post WWII. That's when too many individuals had met too many other individuals from too many far flung other places, for anything to ever go back to the way it was. There was discrimination in finance, but, also, the introduction of those things which work against discrimination. Finance started to become about numbers, not someone's opinion. All of this in a still union strong economic environment. The actual fighting had been done before the war. Now, the influences of the labor movement were felt in things like the weekend becoming a thing. 40 hours a week became a standard. The idea that people had lives outside of work took root. It became fuel for a consumer driven economy. And that is just us recognizing, democratically, the importance of each other in our economic reality. There is such new opportunity. Unless some aren't telling the truth, it is all about opportunity, isn't it?
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Re: The Death of Suburbia Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 25 Sep 2021, 12:50:58

Evil,

I dont think it is about opportunity but something more primitive like tribal affiliations.
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