Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.
Post a reply

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby OutcastPhilosopher » Sat 10 Apr 2021, 10:51:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutcastPhilosopher', '
')The dollar is not worth the same...


Is this ultimately a theory about oil depletion or about fiat currency?

I sense grasping at straws.


You idiots don't even know what a "dollar" is......A constitutional dollar equals 371.25 grains of pure silver, which is the same as 77.344 percent of a troy ounce. Now how many federal reserve notes does it take to buy that much silver?

Go and try to buy an American Silver Eagle with FRN.

Go and try to buy a Peace Silver Dollar or Morgan Silver Dollar which are 77.344 percent silver with FRNs. The silver value today is just under $20. Of course, you will not be able to one for $20 and in fact you will most likely spend somewhere between $60-$100 for the regular year coins. But, if you were to just examine the silver content and realize that it has value for something that was used as a "dollar" what does that tell you?

Yet, the smooth brains state that there is no inflation or currency debasement.

The same is true of oil. We are scraping the bottom of the barrel for off-shore oils, shale oils, and tar sands. All of these are some of the most ecologically destructive also. This is because we need all the oil we can get. All of the information coming out about "reserves" from Saudi are completely false. The Giant oil fields are in terminal decline and it is being purposely obfuscated just like the debasement of currency.

This board is made up of smooth brains that cannot see the obvious or do a bit of cursory research that shows we are heading into collapse. I am not claiming that it is going to happen tomorrow but it is going to happen and it is going to take everyone by surprise.
The hand that gives is above the hand that takes
OutcastPhilosopher
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 258
Joined: Fri 06 Nov 2020, 17:39:05
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby aadbrd » Sat 10 Apr 2021, 11:34:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutcastPhilosopher', '
')I am not claiming that it is going to happen tomorrow but it is going to happen and it is going to take everyone by surprise.


Isn't all of the posting and reposting of charts supposed to offer a predictive model on when disaster is supposed to strike? I'm not seeing dots connect in a way that validates the ETP narrative in particular. I am only seeing a vague reassertion of peak-oil as an existential threat with some hand-waving about fiat currency.

Let's look at it another way. At what point down the road would you look at the world as it is and compare it about ETP's predictive model, note the disconnect, and abandon this attempt to defend it? If the answer is never, then you aren't really arguing in good faith and there's little sense for anyone to even engage as advocates are lost in closed-minded faith-based reasoning ala Q-anon.
User avatar
aadbrd
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 510
Joined: Sat 26 Dec 2020, 16:09:06
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 10 Apr 2021, 22:06:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutcastPhilosopher', '
')This board is made up of smooth brains that cannot see the obvious or do a bit of cursory research that shows we are heading into collapse. I am not claiming that it is going to happen tomorrow but it is going to happen and it is going to take everyone by surprise.

If your predictions are horrifically wrong in the short term, whatever you do, pretend your timeframe is infinite. :lol:

As if you do enough name calling and make up enough shiite in the face of reality and in the face of you and your ilk's BAD predictions for decades is must make you right THIS TIME.

And if you put an infinite timeframe on "something bad will happen", that gives it ANY value whatsoever. :roll:

What it does do is confirm that your posts may as well come from a 9 year old. Just like your instadoomer club of misfit toys.

And when a dollar can't buy groceries, medical care, pay utility bills, buy a gallon of gasoline, etc. be SURE and get back to us.

Meanwhile, your ilk's endless braying that hyperinflation is here and PM's will bring infinite riches real soon now are, as per usual, wrong. Not that I'd expect objective reality to dissuade you from your nonsense in any way whatsoever.

Congrats on being as intelligent as a virus or a bacteria, re the usefulness of your economic predictions -- even before you now grasp at straws and make the timeframe infinite. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 10142
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Sun 18 Apr 2021, 15:06:21

Image

Exactly what is expectable: Oil consuming infrastructure peaks earlier than oil.
Peak Car: 2017
Peak Oil: 2018
Image Take care of the second law.
Baduila
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 172
Joined: Fri 26 Jun 2015, 12:44:17
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 18 Apr 2021, 16:03:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')Exactly what is expectable: Oil consuming infrastructure peaks earlier than oil.


I don't think this is a surprise at all when it comes to peak oil demand. Are you claiming then that Amy Jaffe, DNL-GV, Rystad, CSIS were all right then? They've been discussing this since 2015. No cooling oil field claptrap involved in the least.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby aadbrd » Sun 18 Apr 2021, 16:17:27

Which year was this Mid-Year ETP MAP update originally about, BTW?

I'm not seeing much topicality in this thread anymore but a couple posters seem determined to try to keep the discussion moving by any means necessary.
User avatar
aadbrd
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 510
Joined: Sat 26 Dec 2020, 16:09:06
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sun 18 Apr 2021, 20:03:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', 'W')hich year was this Mid-Year ETP MAP update originally about, BTW?

I'm not seeing much topicality in this thread anymore but a couple posters seem determined to try to keep the discussion moving by any means necessary.


aadbrd is waiting for driverless Tesla idiocracy to put an end to all personal transportation because of battery fires like this one today:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla ... ls-two-men

Of the two occupants, one was seated in the passenger seat of the front of the car while the other was seated in the passenger seat of the back of the car.

NBC says it is "trying to determine whether the vehicle may have been in automatic driving mode due to the victims’ seating, but that information is not available yet."

While we will also wait for further information before passing judgement, it would seem to echo an influx of videos and Instagram posts showing Tesla owners sitting in various parts of their vehicles - anywhere but the drivers' seat - while the car barrels forward in Autopilot or FSD mode.

And stop us if you've heard this one before: A reported 23,000 gallons of water needed to be used to extinguish the flames because the Tesla's battery "kept reigniting".

Image
Outcast_Searcher is a fraud.
StarvingLion
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 2612
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 18:59:17
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Mon 19 Apr 2021, 10:06:12

https://peakoil.com/forums/mid-year-etp-map-update-pt-1-t77606-320.html#p1432689
Image Take care of the second law.
Baduila
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 172
Joined: Fri 26 Jun 2015, 12:44:17
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 19 Apr 2021, 10:13:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '[')url]https://peakoil.com/forums/mid-year-etp-map-update-pt-1-t77606-320.html#p1432689[/url]


That isn't the one that predicted $0/bbl oil back a year or three. Why isn't that one on your list of examples of what happens when oil fields get all COLD and everything? :)
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Sat 01 May 2021, 02:53:30

In the following diagram the price inflation is compensated (2,7% per year).

Image
Image Take care of the second law.
Baduila
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 172
Joined: Fri 26 Jun 2015, 12:44:17
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby aadbrd » Sat 01 May 2021, 08:43:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'I')n the following diagram the price inflation is compensated (2,7% per year).


Even cooking the books like that isn't enough to keep the data within the lines.

Given this time-slice, about half of it is spent outside the lines. So really, what value is ETP?

Image
User avatar
aadbrd
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 510
Joined: Sat 26 Dec 2020, 16:09:06
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Sat 01 May 2021, 12:41:27

Have you never heard of the difference between current $ and constant 2021 $ ?
Image Take care of the second law.
Baduila
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 172
Joined: Fri 26 Jun 2015, 12:44:17
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Sat 01 May 2021, 13:49:27

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perpetual_motion#Classification

A perpetual motion machine of the second kind is a machine that spontaneously converts thermal energy into mechanical work. When the thermal energy is equivalent to the work done, this does not violate the law of conservation of energy. However, it does violate the more subtle second law of thermodynamics (see also entropy). The signature of a perpetual motion machine of the second kind is that there is only one heat reservoir involved, which is being spontaneously cooled without involving a transfer of heat to a cooler reservoir. This conversion of heat into useful work, without any side effect, is impossible, according to the second law of thermodynamics.

Some people here believe the heat of the oil coming from the reservoir has no importance at all. But we know two things:
Heat from oil can be converted to mechanical work.
Earth is only one heat reservoir and is in thermal equilibrium, at least near most oil wells.

Is it possible to use the mechanical work derived from the heat of the oil heat to pump oil to the surface ?
Image Take care of the second law.
Baduila
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 172
Joined: Fri 26 Jun 2015, 12:44:17
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 01 May 2021, 14:39:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'H')ave you never heard of the difference between current $ and constant 2021 $ ?


Some of us have. When the originator of this silly thermodynamic idea (prior to attempting to scrub it from the internet in order to damp down the laughter that followed) was challenged on these lines, they manufactured a completely weird way of discussing real versus nominal dollars, and applied to their graphics in order to show the idea worked both ways. As time went on and it became obvious to even houseplants that the idea itself had been discredited by reality, that information was scrubbed from view as well.

Unfortunate that you didn't see or learn from that lesson....recalculating a bad idea to accommodate real or nominal dollars doesn't make a bad idea unrelated to either, better.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 01 May 2021, 14:55:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')Some people here believe the heat of the oil coming from the reservoir has no importance at all.


Some people here have more experience as reservoir engineers than you might years of life. What moron led you to believe we don't use reservoir temperatures in our calculation?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')But we know two things:
Heat from oil can be converted to mechanical work.
Earth is only one heat reservoir and is in thermal equilibrium, at least near most oil wells.


Who is "we"? Other fools who can't calculate thermodynamic equivalencies between rock matrix and the fluids they contain? I've asked you before, have you ever even looked at temperature logs for a given reservoir, or not? Pre-production, during production, later in a fields life? Or is your grand claim really based on just pure ignorance on this topic?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')Is it possible to use the mechanical work derived from the heat of the oil heat to pump oil to the surface ?


Current production techniques don't use work derived from the heat of the oil in-situ, no. Why would we? For nearly two centuries now hydrostatic pressure differentials or a surface installed lifting system has worked just fine.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Sat 01 May 2021, 17:10:17

Heat is not temperature. You don't even understand the question.
Image Take care of the second law.
Baduila
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 172
Joined: Fri 26 Jun 2015, 12:44:17
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 01 May 2021, 20:11:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'H')eat is not temperature. You don't even understand the question.


Seriously, you want to begin getting real definitionally correct when you've already provided a document showing you can't play that game in the least when it comes to oil field operations you want to pretend you know something about? You can't answer a single, easy, infantile level question directly related to your claimed oil field operation knowledge.

How many temperature logs (quite commonly run by oil field operators as part of their log suite) or other means of recording the thermal gradient have you used in forming your idea that removing hydrocarbons decreases the temperature (i.e. a reduction in heat) in the reservoir.

Or can you not discuss in the least the empirical data behind your claims? Perhaps because...there was none involved?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Mon 03 May 2021, 01:50:51

The price data support my model.
You are the redneck. Present a statistical relevant dat set to support your idea. Demonstrate that the temperatures in reservoirs increase.
Image Take care of the second law.
Baduila
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 172
Joined: Fri 26 Jun 2015, 12:44:17
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Pops » Mon 03 May 2021, 08:00:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'T')he price data support my model.
You are the redneck. Present a statistical relevant dat set to support your idea. Demonstrate that the temperatures in reservoirs increase.

The 'model' was originally conceived looking at a chart of nominal oil price.
Everything since is bullshit internet shilling of a 'report'.
You seem to be the last victim.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
Top

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 03 May 2021, 09:00:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'T')he price data support my model.


No they don't. There is a reason why you can't provide an r-squared to at least pretend you built something that follows the past price, let alone the future.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')You are the redneck.


True. But that doesn't mean that my reservoir engineering skills are any worse than some fine city slicker reservoir engineer. And either of us is light years ahead of you.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')Present a statistical relevant dat set to support your idea. Demonstrate that the temperatures in reservoirs increase.


Stop strawmanning. I made no such claim of reservoir temperatures increasing, as I know for a fact from data that they do not (without outside influence anyway, like me injecting warmer fluids into some section of the reservoir or a local magma upwelling). My statistical data set that your idea is bogus has been provided by you.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top
PreviousNext
Post a reply

Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests



cron