PeakOil is You
Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2
Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2
by asg70 » Sat 14 Nov 2020, 18:17:58
This dead horse has been beaten so much I doubt anyone would even recognize the pulverized remains anymore.
BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)
HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2
by Baduila » Tue 15 Dec 2020, 06:01:32
In November Peak Oil has celebrated its second birthday.
The projection for the oil price is now about two years old and valid.
My projection for oil production is only 7 months old, but still valid.
It's the thermodynamics, stupid !
( https://limitstogrowth.de/wp-content/up ... _EN_09.pdf )
Oil is bought in a world economy only if a profit can be generated with it. No profit, no oil consumption. So, based on thermodynamics, a second statement can be made:
It's the economy, stupid !
The projection for the oil price is now about two years old and valid.
My projection for oil production is only 7 months old, but still valid.
It's the thermodynamics, stupid !
( https://limitstogrowth.de/wp-content/up ... _EN_09.pdf )
Oil is bought in a world economy only if a profit can be generated with it. No profit, no oil consumption. So, based on thermodynamics, a second statement can be made:
It's the economy, stupid !
Take care of the second law.- Baduila
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2
by AdamB » Tue 15 Dec 2020, 09:57:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'I')n November Peak Oil has celebrated its second birthday.
You mean the most recent peak oil. As we know, ETP doesn't know any more about oil than it does thermodynamics, after having forced its author right off the internet in embarrassment when the price of oil didn't go to $0/bbl a year or two back as this method predicted.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2
by Pops » Tue 15 Dec 2020, 11:52:26
Funny that the oil price is falling in tandem with increasing surplus oil from high intensity extraction.
Coincidence surely.
Coincidence surely.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2
by Outcast_Searcher » Tue 15 Dec 2020, 13:42:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'F')unny that the oil price is falling in tandem with increasing surplus oil from high intensity extraction.
Coincidence surely.
Coincidence surely.
Helped along of course, by a significant pandemic-induced drop in global demand.
But of course, 2022 and beyond are on the way, and we'll see whether the global demand has peaked or not. I see a race over the next decade or so between more light fleet electrification reducing potential transpo crude oil demand growth, and overall global growth in things like roads and petrochemicals making net global crude demand an interesting horse race, overall.
Now, once EV's and especially BEV's seriously ramp up in light vehicle fleet competition (in the 2030's, IMO), then I think the overall demand for crude drops globally, but slowly. In a world that deals better with slow vs. rapid and stressful transitions (re economic stability), and in a world that badly needs to deal with AGW instead of just ignoring it and has finite crude oil supplies -- on balance, I'd call the overall news re likely global crude demand as a trend fairly positive.
Of course, I'm not looking for daily excuses to claim rapid doom is at hand, unlike the usual suspects, so there's that.
Oh, and re the ETP thing, I believe 2021 was the year WTI was supposed to descend to like two bucks as the global economy completely collapses, unable to "afford" to produce crude, and so unable to function. But in the REAL world, despite a nasty pandemic that may well kill a million or more globally (on top of the 1.6 million so far) before we're done, and a large proportion of that by late spring -- the prospects for the overall economy for the next few years look rather solid indeed. Especially given all the stress and shutdown and reduced economic activity that's caused in 2020, and will continue to cause until the vaccines can do their work in spite of anti-vaxxer resistance slowing that down. Again, good news overall, NOT remotely like total collapse.
Resiliency is a thing that the fast crash doomers miss CONSTANTLY, and fail to learn from decade after decade after decade.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2
by Baduila » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 12:41:07
Some images need an update. First The original HillsGroup Price diagram with a 2020 data point.
Take care of the second law.- Baduila
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2
by Baduila » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 12:45:08
An ETP diagram with more details, showing the difference between theory and reality. The current delay between theoretical price decay and reality has increased to three years.
We have to expect a DD point in the next days.
We have to expect a DD point in the next days.
Take care of the second law.- Baduila
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2
by Baduila » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 12:47:43
The last one contains the price projection together with production projection.
Both projections are full on track.
Both projections are full on track.
Take care of the second law.- Baduila
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2
by Tanada » Thu 14 Jan 2021, 14:43:35
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'S')ome images need an update. First The original HillsGroup Price diagram with a 2020 data point.
That is a LONG way from the original graph of projections from Hills Group. I am too distracted to dig it out right now, but this graph is definitely time shifted so that the original disproven projection is not shown. By now on the original graph oil was worth less than $10/bbl and by next year they would be paying us to take it off their hands.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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