by AdamB » Thu 11 Mar 2021, 22:29:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')The oil price has been switched from WTI to Brent, because of the high volatibility of WTI. The dotted lines both moved a little bit.
When you change a price metric and your thermodynamically based model delivers a different answer, you know this indicates that the answer isn't based on thermodynamics, right? Try using the oil price of Maya or Shengli, Sokoi perhaps, and see how that changes the answer.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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AdamB
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by StarvingLion » Wed 07 Apr 2021, 09:03:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '[')img]https://assets.wallstreet-online.de/_media/1591/board/20210309191336-price-brent-210309-f.png[/img]
Changing the rules and moving the goal posts doesn't make you more credible.
The oil price has been switched from WTI to Brent, because of the high volatibility of WTI. The dotted lines both moved a little bit.
In the real world, each day crude sets new highs makes the claims of ETP for 2020-2022 look sillier. Not that your ilk would ever acknowledge it. Per CNBC, WTI at $65.91, up $1.47, as I type, BTW.
Hey Charlatan, what is WTI at today?
$60, as I type.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA....your ilk.
Outcast_Searcher is a fraud.
by AdamB » Wed 07 Apr 2021, 10:59:17
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')Peak oil is now two and a half year behind us.
And peak oil was 15 years behind us in 1994. Call us back when anyone besides the thermodynamically ignorant notice.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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AdamB
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by AdamB » Wed 07 Apr 2021, 11:01:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')The oil price slowly goes down and down
This thread doesn't make sense on many levels.
Indeed. Welcome to the fantasyland of ETP. A world in which the price of oil was supposed to hit $0/bbl a year or two back, and when it didn't, the folks who missed Thermodynamics 101 in college just changed the date, proving they don't know any more than the peak oilers who have been pulling the same stunt since Colin Campbell declared global peak in 1990.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
by AdamB » Thu 08 Apr 2021, 09:08:22
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '@')aadbrd
Gasoline is not the same as oil.
And producing oil doesn't cool the planet.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')I refer to facts, not to ideas of half-educated economists.
You refer to nonsense, and began with an idea so badly formed it's author has attempted to scrub it from the internet in order not to be a global laughingstock. He failed. Repeating discredited nonsense doesn't make it a fact, or a good idea, or anything other than discredited nonsense.
Oh yeah...and what might the R squared be on those fits?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
by OutcastPhilosopher » Fri 09 Apr 2021, 15:21:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')Gasoline is not the same as oil. The gasoline price includes refining, transport, distribution, tax etc. The probability is high, that oil gets cheap, but gasoline gets too expensive for your income. See Lebanon or India.
The raw feedstock of gasoline will be worthless but the finished product will become too expensive for my income thanks to refining, transport, distribution, tax, etc...? With all due respect, unlikely.
Try to buy something when your currency is worthless.....see Lebanon
The hand that gives is above the hand that takes
by Outcast_Searcher » Fri 09 Apr 2021, 16:27:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutcastPhilosopher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')Gasoline is not the same as oil. The gasoline price includes refining, transport, distribution, tax etc. The probability is high, that oil gets cheap, but gasoline gets too expensive for your income. See Lebanon or India.
The raw feedstock of gasoline will be worthless but the finished product will become too expensive for my income thanks to refining, transport, distribution, tax, etc...? With all due respect, unlikely.
Try to by something when your currency is worthless.....see Lebanon
The Dollar is worth JUST AS MUCH as it was 30_ years ago, re the DXY, vs. your empty, fact free, pathetic blabbering.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/(Click on the "All" link to get the 30+ year perspective, vs. short term cherry picking and whining.)
And just as shorty (who I think might be you in anther BS incarnation) was wrong re people not being able to afford gasoline, and thus it falling to roughly $2 by 12/2021 re the failed ETP theory, you persist in pursuing absolute nonsense, re absence of credible facts. Like WTI hanging around $60 (ie THIRTY TIMES the claimed value re ETP), while folks wait and see what economic growth and job growth looks like (forecast to be strong) vs. real world demand for oil (which the middle classs can CLEARLY afford, despite all the whining from your ilk). And this in the face of a serious GLOBAL PENDEMIC, as well. Imagine that.
You know, continuing to bray absolutely fact free STUPIDITY, in the face of the fact that the internet exists and facts can be checked, isn't helping your credibility for people who can read and care just a bit about facts.
But keep braying. Maybe someday, you'll get lucky and manage to be right for a year or three, doubtful as that appears in the face of economic reality.
A high GDP growth rate in 2021 and 2022 in the US and Western Europe appears likely, re the news. Not exactly the backdrop for oil being unafforable at $2 a barrel, now is it?
So what now? More name calling, at a level to challenge the typical 5 year old?
Well, while you're trying that, in the real world, both the S&P 500 and the Dow are hitting new highs again. And even the NASDAQ composite is nearing new highs.
And those interest rates you were recently claiming implied insta-doom? Well, the Dollar was up today, and the 10 year note rate (the source of so much of your doom claiming recently) was only up a little, well off recent highs. When real world, US inflation becomes a significant problem, much less a serious one, be sure and get back to us with all your "infinite wisdom" on the topic (re bad calls).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
by OutcastPhilosopher » Fri 09 Apr 2021, 18:49:11
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutcastPhilosopher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')Gasoline is not the same as oil. The gasoline price includes refining, transport, distribution, tax etc. The probability is high, that oil gets cheap, but gasoline gets too expensive for your income. See Lebanon or India.
The raw feedstock of gasoline will be worthless but the finished product will become too expensive for my income thanks to refining, transport, distribution, tax, etc...? With all due respect, unlikely.
Try to by something when your currency is worthless.....see Lebanon
The Dollar is worth JUST AS MUCH as it was 30_ years ago, re the DXY, vs. your empty, fact free, pathetic blabbering.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/(Click on the "All" link to get the 30+ year perspective, vs. short term cherry picking and whining.)
And just as shorty (who I think might be you in anther BS incarnation) was wrong re people not being able to afford gasoline, and thus it falling to roughly $2 by 12/2021 re the failed ETP theory, you persist in pursuing absolute nonsense, re absence of credible facts. Like WTI hanging around $60 (ie THIRTY TIMES the claimed value re ETP), while folks wait and see what economic growth and job growth looks like (forecast to be strong) vs. real world demand for oil (which the middle classs can CLEARLY afford, despite all the whining from your ilk). And this in the face of a serious GLOBAL PENDEMIC, as well. Imagine that.
You know, continuing to bray absolutely fact free STUPIDITY, in the face of the fact that the internet exists and facts can be checked, isn't helping your credibility for people who can read and care just a bit about facts.
But keep braying. Maybe someday, you'll get lucky and manage to be right for a year or three, doubtful as that appears in the face of economic reality.
A high GDP growth rate in 2021 and 2022 in the US and Western Europe appears likely, re the news. Not exactly the backdrop for oil being unafforable at $2 a barrel, now is it?
So what now? More name calling, at a level to challenge the typical 5 year old?
Well, while you're trying that, in the real world, both the S&P 500 and the Dow are hitting new highs again. And even the NASDAQ composite is nearing new highs.
And those interest rates you were recently claiming implied insta-doom? Well, the Dollar was up today, and the 10 year note rate (the source of so much of your doom claiming recently) was only up a little, well off recent highs. When real world, US inflation becomes a significant problem, much less a serious one, be sure and get back to us with all your "infinite wisdom" on the topic (re bad calls).
by AdamB » Sat 10 Apr 2021, 10:11:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aadbrd', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OutcastPhilosopher', '
')The dollar is not worth the same...
Is this ultimately a theory about oil depletion or about fiat currency?
I sense grasping at straws.
ETP is an attempt to use thermodynamics in a way to create a doom scenario, one that looks all scientific-ee. Similar to the EROEI angle that came out after it turned out that peak oilers couldn't predict oil volumes. The idea being to generate the same result (doom) but find another mechanism that doesn't keep getting discredited by reality in real time. Grasping at straws is a good way of thinking about ETP, EROEI and whatever nonsense Outcast Philosopher/StarvingPuutyTat/ShortOnOil says.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Take care of the second law.
