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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

All Techno-Messiah Waiters Please Stand Up

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:11:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')eems kinda risky eh? A queasy feeling in the stomach?


Oh hell yes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') bet if all of those scientists and engineers and economists deliberately embarked on a qualitatively different strategy and people embarked on a qualitative change in assumptions and lifestyle, a large or very large fraction of the consequences of oil depletion could be mitigated.


Indeed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course, I haven't yet. I'm still paying people to kill and destroy for my industrial lifestyle.


Let's see, vegetarian, no heat no AC no driving to work (right now my injury means I can't ride my bike so I have to drive a couple of miles a day). I sent a lot of money relative to my low income to people fighting Bush in '04. You cleaner?

What do "I" have to do with the scenario we're discussing (at least, used to be discussing) before everyone started jumping all over me personally? If my numbers about oil replacements are wrong, or my theory about what corporations are going to do is wrong, then show me the money.

I hope you'll understand my frustration. I put together a good argument about why oil replacements are going to be used, and because no one has come with any reasons I'm wrong, you're jumping all over me because I didn't cure cancer before breakfast this morning.


Nobody doubts that they will be used. But to think they're going to keep the system humming along more or less for the next 20 years ignores everything that is going on in the real world.

If TDP is so great, if the companies are going to be investing in it so much, why did Changing World Technologies need a 10 million dollar grant from the DOE to keep it's head above water? If it's going to help solve or significantly delay the crash of civilization, I would think there would be plenty of profit seeking private parties willing to shell out hundreds of millions, billions, even trillions of dollars.

Why is there still only ONE plant, producing less than 200 barrels a day of number four heating oil if this is the technology that will help save the freaking world?!

Your vision of the future is simply not connecting to what is and is not taking place in the real world.

Take a look at the energy bill that just got passed. The war in Iraq. GM, Ford, Delta, United, the fuel riots breaking out in the third world, etc. . . investment banks saying we're going to see oil at possibly $200-$400/barrel inside of the next few years, the almost total lack of awareness on the part of the average person, steps being taken to institute martial law, blah, blah, blah, . . .

If what you say is going to happen, when is it going to start? Please tell us because most of us would love to stop worrying about this. I've been writing about this for two years now, and two years ago people were saying, "Thermal DepolyPazoooDrivinhybridsWindFromthePlanetPlutO" is here any day now. Here we are, oil prices have doubled, the war in Iraq is only getting worse, we've burned through 60 billion barrels of the stuff, and we are no closer to a discernable, verfiable system of alternatives that will allow the current system to keep humming than we were two years ago, or even five years ago.

Why is Chevron asking us to "join us" to help them? Surely they are as astute as you and have thought these things through? Yet I don't see them doing much outside of trademarking "Human Energy" (TM, property of Chevron Corporation) and basically saying, "Well, we don't know what to do. You guys got any ideas?"

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Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:16:27

Let me add this: "Nothing says 'we're fucked' more effectively than a multimillion dollar ad campaign that says 'don't worry, we're not fucked'"
Last edited by MattSavinar on Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:17:04, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:16:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ere's an example: People say we should colonize space and move the growing population to other worlds.


That's a really stupid idea. That would costs orders and orders of magnitude beyond these replacements, which won't cost much more than just pumping the oil out of the ground.


Of course it is a stupid idea, that's why it is so apropos to your scenario. And its not so much about cost, but scalability.

So, now you are saying that alternative energy conversions like coal to oil, tar sands to oil, oilshale to oil, etc, won't cost much more than conventional oil where, in the beggining all you have to do is stick a straw in the ground? :lol:

Look, I've been running these numbers for 30 years, and I never get the answers you do. Simple physics says this is not the case, not to mention common sense. You simply miss the big picture here, sorry.
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Unread postby Ghog » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:19:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cyrus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat will happen if we scale coal/shale/TD up and generally keep the current economic/cultural system running?

1. More farmland and forest land shall be permanently destroyed by urban development. Lots more. Well, depaving can happen, but that is very very unlikely beyond Jan Lundberg's driveway.

2. More groundwater shall be permanently depleted.

3. More topsoil shall be permanently destroyed.

4. More persistent toxins shall be released.

5. Global warming shall accelerate.

6. No urgent (but humane as possible) efforts at population control, many more people to feed. And we are already at peak grain from FAO data...

7. Western (or Chinese, or whoever) imperialism will continue killing people and blowing shit up to keep resources flowing and markets expanding. If not for oil or oil shale (China has suffered a terror attack! And the Chinese government says it was perpetrated by Americans living in the Green River Basin ), then for LNG or rare metals to make computers or coffee or whatever.

And then what happens from 2020 onwards? Repeat steps 1-7. Except faster. Always faster!!!!

But after 2020, maybe other things will happen like:

A. Drawdown of the Great Lakes to prop up agriculture after the Ogallala Aquifer runs out.

B. Massive quantities of radwaste to store and guard along with our 10000 theoretical breeder nukes. Don't let your guard down-ever.

C. More of the Earth is permanently contaminated by depleted uranium. I mean, this is truly insane-Iraq and Afghanistan and Kosovo are already covered with radioactive dust-many tons of it.

And then, Homo colossus will have a much larger demand to satisfy-with demand growth for energy, water, food, and suburban life likely to continue on an indefinite basis.

Seems kinda risky eh? A queasy feeling in the stomach?

I bet if all of those scientists and engineers and economists deliberately embarked on a qualitatively different strategy and people embarked on a qualitative change in assumptions and lifestyle, a large or very large fraction of the consequences of oil depletion could be mitigated.

Of course, I haven't yet. I'm still paying people to kill and destroy for my industrial lifestyle.

Wise man say "However far down the wrong path you have traveled, turn back."


BEAUTIFUL! Someone who gets it! Please, someone lock to topic before the trolls of the board begin spouting about alternatives which breach every one of the things dear honeylocust posted!


This is the debate he is avoiding. He wants someone to prove him wrong, yet there is no possible way to do so. Just like he cannot prove he is correct. Nothing has happened yet!! This is in PREPARATION for PO. It just ends up being your opinion against another.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here have been complaints that global warming or Bush will take us down. I agree with those problems. So people ask me why I haven't personally fixed them, though my hands are surely cleaner than many of them.


Cleaner? You propose relying on oil further, along with nuclear and coal. You wipe your hands of any responsibility because you don't use A/C and you drive your bike to work, yet you promote ideas that don't help the situation. (see above). And get off the high and mighty 'I'm not Jesus and can't fix it all kick'. YOU were the one that wants everyone else deal with global warming instead of PO, yet you have done NOTHING for that cause yourself. Hippocritical if you ask me. Try dealing with the above quoted post if you really want to debate. Points 1-7, A-C are waiting for you.

I see someone who is scared of PO and wishes to convince as many other people as possible to dismiss the notion. The more you convince, the more secure you feel about PO not becoming a reality. Makes it easier to go with life doesn't it? Here let me try it. There is no corruption, no crime, no drug problem, no racism, no political agenda and no environmental issues. WOW, I feel better already.
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Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:29:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', ' ')I find it more interesting that other than one substantive and lamentably brief debate about decline rates, we're 11 pages into the debate and no one has come up with one legitimate reason I'm wrong regarding what is going to happen with oil replacements.



You've just chosen to ignore them.
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Unread postby EnergySpin » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:33:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', ' ')I find it more interesting that other than one substantive and lamentably brief debate about decline rates, we're 11 pages into the debate and no one has come up with one legitimate reason I'm wrong regarding what is going to happen with oil replacements.



You've just chosen to ignore them.

Yes JT ... click here
and see why this extravaganza CANNOT be sustained ad infinitum at a large scale without irreversibly killing all terestrial life.
The link is from Stanford ... the cycle of emboddied energy on earth and why we cannot tap but a small amount.
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Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:34:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ghog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cyrus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat will happen if we scale coal/shale/TD up and generally keep the current economic/cultural system run

I see someone who is scared of PO and wishes to convince as many other people as possible to dismiss the notion. The more you convince, the more secure you feel about PO not becoming a reality. .


I can't think of any other logical reason why somebody who claims they believe peak oil "will not happen" would spend so much time attempting to prove "peak oil will not happen."

I don't go on the rapture ready board to convince people the rapture won't happen because I am fully confident it won't happen. Of course, somebody who does believe the rapture is on the way will try to prove it to me and then say, "Why can't you disprove that this is going to happen?"

TDP is sort of a techno-messiah, the long awaited second coming of cheap and abundant energy that will save us.

JT's mentality is similiar to those who believe in the rapture. The idea that something is going to come from on high, be it God or Corporate America, to save us from a very complex problem(s).

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Unread postby honeylocust » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:37:41

Just straying from systemic issues here-

TD could be useful for increasing EROI of biomass.
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Unread postby EnergySpin » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:41:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('honeylocust', 'J')ust straying from systemic issues here-

TD could be useful for increasing EROI of biomass.

Correct :-D
It can also help with reclaiming minerals and other scarce materials from waste. Technologies such as this could also help a civilization achieve "immortality". Biological organisms who do not have access to high pressure high temperature reactions eventually die :-D
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Unread postby honeylocust » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:46:08

Huh?
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Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:47:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('honeylocust', 'H')uh?


Ditto
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Unread postby EnergySpin » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:55:40

Oh something really simple: complex biological systems eventually age and die because they cannot fully recycle their infrastructure. You need chemical reactions of high temperature and pressure and nuclear reactions that are incompatible with life inside a cell to do that .
One of the premises of far-from-equlibrium thermodynamical systems is that if there exists a system which can control reactions that allow for complete recyclability of the materials it is composed of, then such system can "live" (almost) for ever.
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Unread postby ubercynicmeister » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 22:44:54

Hi Raxozanne; Hi EnergySpin, hi everyone.

Oil Pipelines are gonna be a problem in the near future, Peak Oil or NO Peak Oil.

Most of 'em in the US were built in a vast hurry in the Second World War, when the Nazi's U-Boats were torpedoing oil-tankers off the East Coast of the United States. They haven't had too much maintenance since then - and then either corrupt or IDIOTIC local councils have allowed people to build entire TOWNS over the top of 'em.

Problem - how does one do maintenance on an Oil Pipeline when there's an entire town sitting on top of it?

Answer: you don't.

A few years back, the "authorities" began to worry about the problem when one of the gas pipelines ruptured and literally destroyed an ENTIRE town. So, we're at the same place with the Oil Pipelines as we are with the Very Large Crude Carrier oil tankers - they are all old, all in dire need of replacement and all working at top capacity, so they cannot actually be retired. Thats' without thinking about Peak Oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan', ' ')...come up with one legitimate reason I'm wrong regarding what is going to happen with oil replacements.


I suppose no-one will thank me for adding fuel to an already firey debate, but -here goes.

Given the way that corporations like Enron & Worldcom have been deliberately run into the ground in the very recent past, why should we expect the corrupt idiots who are madly profiting from doing this to want to do something that :

a) requires thinking about and thus distracting them from what they beleive is their God-Given Right To Get Rich Quick At The Expense Of Their Investors / Shareholders ;

and

b) requires effort on their part

????????

They won't.

Not "can't"...WON'T.

What do I mean?

Simple: All of the schemes to "prevent" Peak Oil are going to be ignored, not because of some psychological condition known as "De Nile" (spelling intentional) but because the corrupt ones in charge are having such a great time right now, and cannot see why they should bring this system to an end. This is because of the training they got at "Bizznuss" College - Get Rid Of Ethics, thus thereby getting rid of thinking about the future, especially one that might require the average Corporate Executive to do some "self sacrifice " (gasp!).

I, personally, beleive that there is most DEFINITELY the technology to "avert" Peak Oil and I include things like "bicycles" , and "local farming", and reducing air-conditioning use as "technology". BTW, I'd like to see steam locomotives make a return, but then I'm steam-train mad, so I suppose I'll be dismissed as a harmless crank, LOL!

I don't think that Uranium or Plutonium will play any part in our future, Peak Oil or No Peak Oil, because the Nuclear Industry is just a super INefficient way of converting oil into electricity - think about how much diesel fuel it takes to mine, refine & transport the "fuel" + build and run and decommission the plants to process and use the stuff.

But that technology (bicycles, etc) won't be bothered with, and given the present stuff is being deliberately run into the ground anyway, thanks to Economic Rationalism and "downsizing", it won't form much of a "problem" for too much longer. Heck, it' producing quite a nice profit (thank you) as it dies, so why spend money on it? AND as the Price of a Barrel of Crude goes up, weeeelll that will make the Oil Companies even richer - so why change a system that works evidently so well?

HECK, no, if it's making corrupt Corporate Executives even MORE money than ever, why do anything about it? And if you ask questions, one might get uncomfortable answers, so don't do that either.

This is why your schemes won't work, jtmorgan:

It's not OIL that's the problem - it's the IDIOTS in charge , who can (quite correctly) point out that they are making more and more money from less & less, therefore downsizing is the obvious way to go, viz:

Downsize all research to the point where it's non-existant (they've done that);

Downsize all forward projections to the point where they are obvious generalities with NO apparent value & fill them with cliches and "buzz-words" that you won't find in any dictionary - to blind one's critics with meaningless vebiage (they've done that);

Downsize one's workforce, ESPECIALLY the skilled people, all of whom cost too much anyway, then complain BITTERLY about the artificial "skills shortage" while not undertaking any training programs to provide the next generation of trained people. This gives the added satisfaction of firing all of the malcontents, critics, and independant thinkers - HELL, why not go the whole hog & downsize ANYONE who thinks at all? The result will be to "cow" the rest of one's workforce with the heady atmosphere of fear and loathing; (they've done that)

Downsize the "accounting" and "legal" departments to the point where they are so snowed under with trivialities they'll never be able to spot how much you're robbing the company of or where you're stashing the loot (they've done that);

Encourage government to follow suit with all of the above (they've done that);

Given that downsizing has lead to more & more obscenely large profits, thus more and more obscenely large bonuses, payouts, gratuities, honorariums and Golden Handshakes for the corrupt or inept Executives whilst letting said Corporate Executives away with less & less regulatory oversight
- why would they want to do the OPPOSITE?

jtmorgan, such a suggestion would cause the the average Corporate Executive to start FOAMING AT THE MOUTH!

The "die off" is also something they would want - think about the way that most rich Americans want all Unemployed people (and BOY is there gonna be a heap of unemployed shortly) to be forced off all forms of "welfare" so that the rich can have the Socialist Welfare of lotsa roads - d'you think that this is likely to change, somehow?

The unemployed will shortly be (once again) talked about as "surplus population". There are people here who do that right now and seem to welcome the Die-Off, and that's from those who LIKE the rest of us.

Once the Die Off starts, those who will be most affected (it is said) will be the much-despised poor. Thus the Unemployed will be affected because they are "those who deserve it", because they OBVIOUSLY "don't want to work". Thus the real, tangible feeling of angry superiority, the arrogant hate-filled elitist attitude of "getting the bludgers off our backs" - mostly from those who have never had to do an honest day's work in their entire lives.

The Die Off will thus (foolishly) be welcomed by the "left" - "we already have exceeded the carrying capacity of our Planet";

And the Right: "Get rid of the surplus population of dole-bludgers and unemployables and keep only the right sorta people".

Myself? I don't welcome the idea of mass near-extinction for anything, possibly because I'm soft-hearted. But so what? Does having a hard heart provide infallable protection against having a soft head?

I think that casual acceptance of a huge Die Off by those who think that supporting "welfare" is interfering with their blatant lust to continue their "rich and infamous" lifestyle is especially reprehensable.

But worst of all is the idea that such a die off should be welcomed in order to give some philosopher a good feeling, because it proves her right on the philosophical point that she felt we have too many humans.

Even Adolf Hitler wasn't THAT depraved.

I re-interate what I said above: Oil (or it's lack) isn't the PROBLEM; nor is there an evident lack of technology - what's the "problem" is the utter corruption (ethical and mental) of "those in charge" who don't wanna change what they have worked so hard to achieve: corrupt depraved elitism based on exclusion

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '
')Sex Slavery as well Raxozanne, do not forget that. Although in our modern times both regular slavery (basic wage at Walmarts) and sex slavery is so common that it will not be a cultural shock. People even accept that , but instead they call their slavemaster "free economy".


Sooo true :(
Maybe I should go and look for some lycra gear now while its still going cheap :lol: [smilie=3some.gif] [smilie=5censored.gif]
P.S: You can call me Roxy

Brothels were legalised in Australia just so the the government could collect tax!


LOL, no, it was so the top lawyers who OWNED the brothels could go on doing so without being hauled up in front of the Judge, most of whom are usually their best clients, especially for "boys", but I won't go there.

In any case, the modern Freemarket Economy is MUCH more efficient than any form of SLAVERY.

Think about this- if you;re a slave-owner, you have to:

1. Feed the slaves (or they die);

2. Clothe the slaves (sometimes);

3. House the slaves (sometimes);

4. Provide some form of health-care, even if it's only collecting the dead bodies;

5. Sell the slaves and thus compete to BUY slaves on a open market.


The Modern Freemarket works the other way around:

You are an employer, so you do NOT have to:

Provide Food (the "employees" pay for THAT themselves);

Provide Clothing (the "employees" pay for THAT themselves);

Provide Housing (the "employees" pay for THAT themselves);

Provide Healthcare (the "employees" pay for THAT themselves - heck they even pay for their own funerals);

AND the really good thing is that the slaves, erm, sorry, EMPLOYEES, sell THEMSELVES.


What a good system...and it's gotten to the point where the slaves, sorry, EMPLOYEES, (my mistake) actually DEFEND the system!!!
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Unread postby EnergySpin » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 23:07:20

Hi ubercynicmeister ... excellent post.
I think that downsizing (actually demolishing of infrastructure) will play another role. Affirmation of social status in an energy scarce/materially scarce world. Think about it, just driving a Prius when everyone else has to rely on walking, eating a decent meal when everyone else goes for dumpster diving, receiving a shot of antibiotics when everyone else dies out in the cold will be the ultimate way of re-affirming one's "superior" position in the world.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')red Hirsch (1976), in his book “Social Limits to Growth”, emphasizes the role of relative social status by calling attention to “positional goods” which, by definition, cannot be
augmented because they solely rely on not being available to others.
This theme was taken up by Frank (1985, 1999) who argues that the production of positional goods in the form of luxuries, such as exceedingly expensive watches or yachts, is a waste of productive resources, as overall happiness is thereby decreased rather than increased.
(from Bruno S. Frey and Alois Stutzer WHAT CAN ECONOMISTS LEARN FROM HAPPINESS RESEARCH? Journal of Economic Literature, Volume 40, Number 2, 1 June 2002, pp. 402-435(34) )
The system has the technical capability to mitigate many but not all off the effects of PO and even maintain a rich quality of life for most of us, even without cars, airplanes and reality TV shows but it will not.
And the very real danger of ecocide will be given as an excuse to justify the planned die-off. When everything is said and done, they will sell this as the new agent of prosperity for humanity.
"Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
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Unread postby ubercynicmeister » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 23:40:19

Hi Energyspin

Thanks for your kind words, I actually expected to be shot down in flames.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', 'H')i ubercynicmeister ... excellent post.
I think that downsizing (actually demolishing of infrastructure) will play another role. Affirmation of social status in an energy scarce/materially scarce world.


YUP, as it's doing just now , as in: "I have it & I can destroy yours, so you CAN'T have it..." petulant 5 year olds say that sort of thing. Before Political Correctness, we'd give 'em a whupping and make 'em apologise. Now we promote them to top corporate positions & high governmental posts. This is said to be "progressive".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Think about it, just driving a Prius when everyone else has to rely on walking, eating a decent meal when everyone else goes for dumpster diving, receiving a shot of antibiotics when everyone else dies out in the cold will be the ultimate way of re-affirming one's "superior" position in the world.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')red Hirsch (1976), in his book “Social Limits to Growth”, emphasizes the role of relative social status by calling attention to “positional goods” which, by definition, cannot be
augmented because they solely rely on not being available to others.
This theme was taken up by Frank (1985, 1999) who argues that the production of positional goods in the form of luxuries, such as exceedingly expensive watches or yachts, is a waste of productive resources, as overall happiness is thereby decreased rather than increased.
(from Bruno S. Frey and Alois Stutzer WHAT CAN ECONOMISTS LEARN FROM HAPPINESS RESEARCH? Journal of Economic Literature, Volume 40, Number 2, 1 June 2002, pp. 402-435(34) )
The system has the technical capability to mitigate many but not all off the effects of PO and even maintain a rich quality of life for most of us, even without cars, airplanes and reality TV shows but it will not.


I cannot imagine ANYONE "missing" the supposed Reality TV shows like Big Bother (spelling intentional).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd the very real danger of ecocide will be given as an excuse to justify the planned die-off. When everything is said and done, they will sell this as the new agent of prosperity for humanity.


Unfortunately, you are right.

I really and truly and honestly wish that I could say "you're wrong" and it gives me no pleasure whatsoever to agree with you.

But you;re right.

Sorry.

Note: I hope others forgive the length of my posting (above) - I am afraid that I have to admire ole Mark Twain when he said that he "had to write a long letter, because he didn;'t have the time to write a short one". I know what he means.
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Unread postby EnergySpin » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 23:49:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') cannot imagine ANYONE "missing" the supposed Reality TV shows like Big Bother (spelling intentional).

My "next floor" neighboors ... they have satellite and watch this kind of crap from all over the world. And they pretend to be multicultural, defined as the ability to watch porn films in 5 different languages :razz:
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Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 23:50:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey're going to put a gun to our heads and tell us to get out and push.


Why take the risk we get the gun out of their hands when right now (as a society) we're happily sitting in the backseat, going wherever they want us to go? There's enough gas in the tank for 20 years or more.

These aren't some soap-opera villians. They're smart, greedy, self-interested people who want the boat to rock as little as possible as long as they're on top. These replacements will allow them to stay on top and avoid rocking the boat. Are they going to risk their position for the sheer power rush? Their shareholders will fire their asses if they do anything to hurt the company. Instability is bad for business.


I bet there were some low-to mid level Enron employees were saying to each other in March 2000 when rumors started circulating around the water cooler hat things were maybe not as rosy as they seemed. "Hey, once we get that pipeline through Afghanistan, the boondoggle of a project Lay/Fastow have going in India will keep this ship afloat."
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Unread postby Jaymax » Sun 31 Jul 2005, 00:00:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il Pipelines are gonna be a problem in the near future, Peak Oil or NO Peak Oil. Most of 'em in the US were built in a vast hurry in the Second World War


Which is why the infrastructure engineering related peak oil problems seem to me to be so often wildly overstated. History proves over and over that we're easily capable of performing gargantuan engineering projects in short order when necessity dictates.

And there's nothing like a bit of global economic depression to provide lots of cheap labour for govenment directed make-work infrastructure projects.

---

Tend to agree with the bulk of your post, although it seems to me that idiocy, corruption, and denial are all part and parcel of the human condition that somehow puts these people effectivly in charge.

Despite all the glowing 'brave-new-world' posts on here, I'm not convinced that underlying aspect of humanity will ever change, dieoff or no dieoff.

--J
Doomerosity now at 2 (occasionaly 3, was 4)

Currently (mostly) taking a break from posting at po.com. Don't trust the false prophets of doom - keep reading, keep learning, keep challenging your assum
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Unread postby Jaymax » Sun 31 Jul 2005, 00:09:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', 'L')ook mate I suggest you move on. www.peakoil.com isn't a site for people who don't think PO will occur. go cheack out www.planetark.com or something and join up with some environmentalists.


Group-think gooooood...
Challenging ideas baaaad...


--J

And the wiki wrote the following .... (typical of doomers and optimists and industry alike)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Janis cited a number of antecedent conditions that would be likely to encourage groupthink. These include:<snip>

Janis listed eight symptoms that he said were indicative of groupthink: <snip>
8. Self-appointed "mindguards" protect the group from negative information

Finally, the seven symptoms of decision affected by groupthink are:<snip>

Maybe we should start a thread on this ....


Maybe we should - what's a good starter?
Then again, maybe it's too late already... My very first peakoil.com private message <yay>

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', 'F')eck off

:roll:

--J
Doomerosity now at 2 (occasionaly 3, was 4)

Currently (mostly) taking a break from posting at po.com. Don't trust the false prophets of doom - keep reading, keep learning, keep challenging your assum
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Unread postby EnergySpin » Sun 31 Jul 2005, 00:26:54

But you did survive Jaymax right?
With certain exceptions ... a sizeable majority (?minority) of the people here do not believe that solutions are not out there; they believe that the current cultural inertia will not allow them to be implemented OR that it will be easier for the system to murder people (read the proposal of your co-patrior Mr W Stanton)
There is also an element of groupthink, but this is not confined to PO.com; it can be found everywhere i.e. for example in free markeeters, New Agers, supporters of Greenpeace, UFO followers, Evangelican Christians , Muslims etc. I'd like for example to discuss solutions from FEASTA on sustainable forms of societal organization but unfortunately they fall outside the scope of hunter-gatherers, local farmers or free markeeters as they require a significant investment in organization and no, after oil is gone there will never be anything but local communities or fascism (I wonder whether the Chinese, The Romans, The Athenians knew that their extensive states were not possible :P) .
"Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
The genetic code is commaless and so are my posts.
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