$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')More to the point, I think that there are a lot of activists around here who are working on this problem rather than other problems that I think are real problems. I would prefer they move over to those problems.
quote]
PeakOil is You
All Techno-Messiah Waiters Please Stand Up
by MattSavinar » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 17:02:30
Translation: my strategy to increase my inclusive fitness involved a particular set or problems. People seem to be focusing on Peak Oil. The more people who focus on Peak Oil, the less effective my strategy to increase my inclusive fitness. Thus, I must dissuade people from preparing for Peak Oil.
BTW, I'm here to increase my inclusive fitness also. It's just part of being human. We're better off in the end if we acknowledge that rather than deluding oursevles about how we're here to help "end war" while we are entirely dependent on a war machine for the most basic necessities of life.
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MattSavinar - Elite
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by entropyfails » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 17:07:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', '
')I pretty much feel this way. I think we need another 20 years before we have the technology in place. I'm arguing with those people who think we can't get 20 more years with oil replacements. Secondarily, I'm arguing with people who think there need to be huge preparations for an oil crash right now, rather than continuing the focus of the left-wing community over the last 20 years on things like ending war, preventing environmental degradation and famine, and lowering the class gap.
I felt like your original post construed me as someone saying "business as usual forever, hooray! Everything will be great!" That's not true at all.
')I pretty much feel this way. I think we need another 20 years before we have the technology in place. I'm arguing with those people who think we can't get 20 more years with oil replacements. Secondarily, I'm arguing with people who think there need to be huge preparations for an oil crash right now, rather than continuing the focus of the left-wing community over the last 20 years on things like ending war, preventing environmental degradation and famine, and lowering the class gap.
I felt like your original post construed me as someone saying "business as usual forever, hooray! Everything will be great!" That's not true at all.
On what depletion rates? If we have a worldwide 3% depletion rate, maybe. It still feels like it would make for a large drag on the world economy to build to make up for a 6% gap in the supply/demand. Even at those rates, alternatives would have to make up 50% of production in 12 years time!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
Oil Demand Alternative
85.00 85.00 0.00
82.45 87.55 5.10
79.98 90.18 10.20
77.58 92.88 15.30
75.25 95.67 20.42
72.99 98.54 25.55
70.80 101.49 30.69
68.68 104.54 35.86
66.62 107.68 41.06
64.62 110.91 46.29
62.68 114.23 51.55
60.80 117.66 56.86
58.98 121.19 62.21
')
If maximum extraction methods have damaged wells beyond repair and we see North Sea like declines in world production we will have 6 years to make up for 50% of production.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
Oil Demand Alternative
85.00 85.00 0.00
76.50 87.55 11.05
68.85 90.18 21.33
61.97 92.88 30.92
55.77 95.67 39.90
50.19 98.54 48.35
45.17 101.49 56.32
')
Rate and magnitude make a big difference here and we have many unknowns. I don't feel certain of any particular prediction, good or bad. However I do note a trend downward.
EntropyFails
"Little prigs and three-quarter madmen may have the conceit that the laws of nature are constantly broken for their sakes." -- Friedrich Nietzsche
"Little prigs and three-quarter madmen may have the conceit that the laws of nature are constantly broken for their sakes." -- Friedrich Nietzsche
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by jtmorgan61 » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 17:07:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hen why are you wasting your time here? Even if each of your 101 posts only took a minute to compose, not accounting for the time it took you to log on, read the messages/news stories on the board, etc. .. you've wasted over an hour and a half debating people about something you think is never going to happen.
If you were really concerned about "ending war" wouldn't you be out finding ways to eliminate your dependence on the resources (financial capital, energy, raw materials) the wars are being fought over, not debating those of us who, by preparing for something that "isn't going to happen", are probably doing more to "end war" than anybody else?
As far as shortening the gap between rich and poor: simply lower your income to less than $1,000/year. With an income of $1,000/year, you would still be in the top 45% of the global population. See GlobalRichList.org What's the saying, "Be the change you wish to make."
If you were really concerned about "ending war" wouldn't you be out finding ways to eliminate your dependence on the resources (financial capital, energy, raw materials) the wars are being fought over, not debating those of us who, by preparing for something that "isn't going to happen", are probably doing more to "end war" than anybody else?
As far as shortening the gap between rich and poor: simply lower your income to less than $1,000/year. With an income of $1,000/year, you would still be in the top 45% of the global population. See GlobalRichList.org What's the saying, "Be the change you wish to make."
I can't do jack right now with a bad back, and if a couple weekends of posting when I can't do much else spares even one person from worrying about this for the next 5 years and instead they get involved with real change, or even take up a personally enriching hobby, then I feel like I spent my time well.
I remember this thread starting off as an argument about whether oil is going to crash or not, not whether I, personally, am the most holy person to ever walk amongst man. You wanted to know who had a scenario that was going avert the scenario laid out on your webpage. I put up a scenario and so far as I can tell, you've identified a lot of other problems that are unrelated to the oil crash and gone on the offensive. Let's talk about why my scenario is wrong, where the numbers don't add up.
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by MattSavinar » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 17:09:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you or anybody else on the left (or right) were truly concerned about these things, you would stop driving/riding in machines powered by the internal combustion engine, turn off your computer, and live on less than $5,000/year, which would still put in the top 15% of the world's population. (See globalrichlist.org).
I'm living on the low impact end of the scale. Live close to work, no heat or A/C, eat vegetarian, would ride my bike to work if I didn't have a back injury. You can't live on $5000/year in the U.S. You know that.
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Live under a bridge. You can eat for under $10 a day easily. It would be a crappy life (by early 21st century American standards) but you would be living your values rather than what you are doing now, which is living a lifestyle slightly less gluttonous than the average American.
The only people who claim to want to "end war" who I respect are the war-tax protestors, because they put their money where their mouth is. as they voluntarily reduce their incomes to the $5,000-$8,000 range so they don't have to pay income tax. This also means their consuming a lot less than the rest of us. It's certainly not a lifestyle I'm willing to live, but I do tip my cap to those who do.
Everybody else is full of it.
Matt
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MattSavinar - Elite
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