All Techno-Messiah Waiters Please Stand Up

by **jtmorgan61** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:27:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.').....go against your plans of attacking global warming and famine? You are still using more oil with an ever increasing population which you need to feed with depleted land using petroleum products. ????? It is not a perfect world and you can't have it all.

by **EnergySpin** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:28:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', 'L')ook mate I suggest you move on.

www.peakoil.com isn't a site for people who don't think PO will occur.
go cheack out www.planetark.com or something and join up with some environmentalists.

by **Ludi** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:30:39

I think it's good to see peak oil assumptions challenged. Keep at it.

by **Ghog** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:35:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't know, would you trade a couple billion lives to avoid killing 100000 species and necessitating a century of cleanup and carbon sequestration? I mean, a couple BILLION people. Damn. That's an off the chart catastrophe

by **jtmorgan61** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:35:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow about some links to your direct involvement? People are now expecting you to be leading the way in these areas, because of your passion for promoting them on PO.com. Show us your work elsewhere. What have you been doing to further the cause on those sites?

by **jtmorgan61** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:38:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ook at it more like this, many on here realize pop reductions are a necessity (unfortunately) in order for the world and its species to survive.

by **Ludi** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:44:32

Aside...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', '
')
I'm not doing anything on those boards. I've been doing this for the last couple of months, because if peak oil is really going to crash us then global warming and runaway development are the least of our problems.

by **Ghog** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:46:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')s this argument about me or about whether we will have an oil crash? You're going to call me a hypocrite and accuse me of changing the subject, but we have drifted quite far afield from where we started

by **honeylocust** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 19:09:56

What will happen if we scale coal/shale/TD up and generally keep the current economic/cultural system running?

1. More farmland and forest land shall be permanently destroyed by urban development. Lots more. Well, depaving can happen, but that is very very unlikely beyond Jan Lundberg's driveway. :-D

2. More groundwater shall be permanently depleted.

3. More topsoil shall be permanently destroyed.

4. More persistent toxins shall be released.

5. Global warming shall accelerate.

6. No urgent (but humane as possible) efforts at population control, many more people to feed. And we are already at peak grain from FAO data...

7. Western (or Chinese, or whoever) imperialism will continue killing people and blowing shit up to keep resources flowing and markets expanding. If not for oil or oil shale (China has suffered a terror attack! And the Chinese government says it was perpetrated by Americans living in the Green River Basin :twisted:

), then for LNG or rare metals to make computers or coffee or whatever.

And then what happens from 2020 onwards? Repeat steps 1-7. Except faster. Always faster!!!! :twisted:

But after 2020, maybe other things will happen like:

A. Drawdown of the Great Lakes to prop up agriculture after the Ogallala Aquifer runs out.

B. Massive quantities of radwaste to store and guard along with our 10000 theoretical breeder nukes. Don't let your guard down-ever.

C. More of the Earth is permanently contaminated by depleted uranium. I mean, this is truly insane-Iraq and Afghanistan and Kosovo are already covered with radioactive dust-many tons of it.

And then, Homo colossus will have a much larger demand to satisfy-with demand growth for energy, water, food, and suburban life likely to continue on an indefinite basis.

Seems kinda risky eh? A queasy feeling in the stomach?

I bet if all of those scientists and engineers and economists deliberately embarked on a qualitatively different strategy and people embarked on a qualitative change in assumptions and lifestyle, a large or very large fraction of the consequences of oil depletion could be mitigated.

Of course, I haven't yet. I'm still paying people to kill and destroy for my industrial lifestyle.

Wise man say "However far down the wrong path you have traveled, turn back."

by **Cyrus** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 19:20:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat will happen if we scale coal/shale/TD up and generally keep the current economic/cultural system running?

1. More farmland and forest land shall be permanently destroyed by urban development. Lots more. Well, depaving can happen, but that is very very unlikely beyond Jan Lundberg's driveway.

2. More groundwater shall be permanently depleted.

3. More topsoil shall be permanently destroyed.

4. More persistent toxins shall be released.

5. Global warming shall accelerate.

6. No urgent (but humane as possible) efforts at population control, many more people to feed. And we are already at peak grain from FAO data...

7. Western (or Chinese, or whoever) imperialism will continue killing people and blowing shit up to keep resources flowing and markets expanding. If not for oil or oil shale (China has suffered a terror attack! And the Chinese government says it was perpetrated by Americans living in the Green River Basin ), then for LNG or rare metals to make computers or coffee or whatever.

And then what happens from 2020 onwards? Repeat steps 1-7. Except faster. Always faster!!!!

But after 2020, maybe other things will happen like:

A. Drawdown of the Great Lakes to prop up agriculture after the Ogallala Aquifer runs out.

B. Massive quantities of radwaste to store and guard along with our 10000 theoretical breeder nukes. Don't let your guard down-ever.

C. More of the Earth is permanently contaminated by depleted uranium. I mean, this is truly insane-Iraq and Afghanistan and Kosovo are already covered with radioactive dust-many tons of it.

And then, Homo colossus will have a much larger demand to satisfy-with demand growth for energy, water, food, and suburban life likely to continue on an indefinite basis.

Seems kinda risky eh? A queasy feeling in the stomach?

I bet if all of those scientists and engineers and economists deliberately embarked on a qualitatively different strategy and people embarked on a qualitative change in assumptions and lifestyle, a large or very large fraction of the consequences of oil depletion could be mitigated.

Of course, I haven't yet. I'm still paying people to kill and destroy for my industrial lifestyle.

Wise man say "However far down the wrong path you have traveled, turn back."

by **EnergySpin** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 19:27:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') bet if all of those scientists and engineers and economists deliberately embarked on a qualitatively different strategy and people embarked on a qualitative change in assumptions and lifestyle, a large or very large fraction of the consequences of oil depletion could be mitigated.

Of course, I haven't yet. I'm still paying people to kill and destroy for my industrial lifestyle.

by **jtmorgan61** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 19:35:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')eems kinda risky eh? A queasy feeling in the stomach?

by **MattSavinar** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 19:37:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.').....go against your plans of attacking global warming and famine? You are still using more oil with an ever increasing population which you need to feed with depleted land using petroleum products. ????? It is not a perfect world and you can't have it all.

by **MattSavinar** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 19:40:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ook at it more like this, many on here realize pop reductions are a necessity (unfortunately) in order for the world and its species to survive.

by **jtmorgan61** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 19:45:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')EAUTIFUL! Someone who gets it! Please, someone lock to topic before the trolls of the board begin spouting about alternatives which breach every one of the things dear honeylocust posted!

by **jtmorgan61** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 19:49:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey're going to put a gun to our heads and tell us to get out and push.

by **EnergySpin** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 19:58:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') hope you'll understand my frustration. I put together a good argument about why oil replacements are going to be used, and because no one has come with any reasons I'm wrong, you're jumping all over me because I didn't cure cancer before breakfast this morning.

by **khebab** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 19:59:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', 'I') find it more interesting that other than one substantive and lamentably brief debate about decline rates, we're 11 pages into the debate and no one has come up with one legitimate reason I'm wrong regarding what is going to happen with oil replacements.

by **honeylocust** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:00:53

My point is not personal criticism on what a person has done/not done in their personal life.

My point is that under the oil scenario of increasing output of coal/shale/TD to continue the current economic/cultural system will produce grave consequences that are much worse than the consequences we currently face, especially if we take "powerdown" oriented actions to mitigate them. Therefore we should not undergo the path of building out coal/shale/TD infrastructure and continuing our generally way of doing things, even if it is possible. Furthermore I contend that it is at least theoretically possible to avoid dieoff/collapse if we pursue powerdown. Thus, the choice between an exponentially ever more risky coal/shale/breeder future and Mad Max style dieoff is a false choice. Sorry about the sarcasm, but those little emoticons are so fun...

by **honeylocust** » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 20:07:25

On the other hand, if some coal/shale/TD was used as part of cushion in the context of deliberate powerdown, then that could make sense, at least from where I stand.

Or, what if an engineer correctly calculated how much gas a super strong car with snow tires would need to drive to the center of Nepal, and no farther. He makes the calculations because all of the other engineers in his family did so (they are all gone to Nepal and never returned). Then his friend says, "but when you get there, you are going to freeze! That won't be fun."

So the engineers calculations, while correct, don't matter in a practical sense-because his friend showed him that there is no point in putting them to use.

All Techno-Messiah Waiters Please Stand Up

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