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PeakOil is You

All Techno-Messiah Waiters Please Stand Up

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Unread postby jtmorgan61 » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 17:46:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou can see why proving the severe ramifications of peak oil as described on my site and countless others "will not happen" is so important to JT.


Yep. You're lowering my inclusive fitness. You're probably lowering your inclusive fitness too.

I'm in favor of nobody dying.

I can't tell if we're in complete agreement of if you're still somehow trying to cast me as the bad guy.
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Unread postby jtmorgan61 » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 17:47:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy do you say you see no problem? Don't you think there might be a problem if oil hit $200


Yes, but see my explanations a) why it won't and b)why it won't stay there if it does
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Unread postby jtmorgan61 » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 17:49:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy do we need to replace the current oil usage?
The idea is to scale down to prevent GW;


Right, but corporations aren't going to do that of their own free will. If they can profitably replace existing oil usage, and we don't stop them, they will do exactly that.
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Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 17:52:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou can see why proving the severe ramifications of peak oil as described on my site and countless others "will not happen" is so important to JT.


Yep. You're lowering my inclusive fitness. You're probably lowering your inclusive fitness too.

I'm in favor of nobody dying.

I can't tell if we're in complete agreement of if you're still somehow trying to cast me as the bad guy.


Not trying to cast you as a "bad guy" at all. I don't want anybody to die either, but I'm not going to delude myself that my lifestyle isn't at the heart of what is fueling the killing.

I value greatly the idea of "what you see/hear is what you get." (Which is why I admire the war tax protestor people.) So until I can become as least dependent on warfare as possible, I'm not going to claim I want to "end war." Right now, I'm only slightly less dependent on the petroleum economy (which depends on the military to secure the global petroleum supply) than the average American. So I would feel kind of like a jerk if I was protesting war while enjoying the fruits of the war.

Claiming to be against war while living a modern western lifestyle is like a longterm welfare recipient lobbying against the welfare system. There is some type of disconnect going on there.

Matt
Last edited by MattSavinar on Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:01:37, edited 2 times in total.
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Unread postby jtmorgan61 » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 17:52:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, but it requires huge economies scale. The point of the pipeline picture was to illustrate the scale of our energy system.


1. If these oil replacement technologies keep making oil, we can use existing pipelines.
2. If pipelines keep expanding, they won't do so any more rapidly than in the past.
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Unread postby jtmorgan61 » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 17:54:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')omparing pipelines to plug in hybrids is like comparing apples and oranges: In this case we have tons and tons of apples and in order to replace a declining apple supply, we need tons and tons of oranges.


And plug in hybrids gradually phase out ICE cars over 10-15 years.

I like oranges.
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Unread postby jtmorgan61 » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 17:59:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ook mate I suggest you move on.

www.peakoil.com isn't a site for people who don't think PO will occur.
go cheack out www.planetark.com or something and join up with some environmentalists.


Working on a number of climate change boards...

I think this site is about discussing issues related to the peak of conventional oil. Including about what will happen after the peak and what we should be doing about it right now. There's a big difference between preparations, which are another point of discussion, depending on whether you think there's a good chance of a mild recession or whether you think 2006 is the year of Olduvai theory.

There have been any number of threads that more or less amount to 100 people saying "we're doomed! doomed I tells ya! and all nodding their heads in agreement." And if that's your entertainment, that's fine. I've done my research, and since I've concluded there isn't much of a story here, I'll move on soon enough. But not before I make it clear the doomiest of doom scenarios doesn't hold.
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Unread postby Raxozanne » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:00:43

Ok so as far as I can tell you say we will be using coal-to-oil and oil shale and TD to make up for short falls between supply and demand until coal/economically recoverable oil shale is used up.

Then we use TD running on waste and hybrid battery technology after that for both electricity generation and transportation?
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Unread postby jtmorgan61 » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:02:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell for one thing, George Bush didn't invade Silicon Valley in 1990 in hopes of seizing control of a rapidly shrinking supply of bandwidth.


:lol:

I think that was just a joke, but I'd like more of an explanation of exactly how this disambiguates the two scenarios.
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Unread postby Ghog » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:02:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow I'm too busy using that money/time/energy to buy a spinning composter, a portable solar pv system, or maybe taking some cash out of the bank and putting it precious metals. I imagine my shift in priorities is not unusual amongst those on the board.


After learning about PO nearly a year ago (through LATOC :) ), I didn't go right to changing my priorities. Mostly it was a few months of "oh crap, what now". Now that I have settled on planning for PO, I am much happier overall. Funny how you would think it would be the other way around. No I am not a doomer. I just realized what my life was missing. PO preparation fulfills me. Not the worry, but the process. I am loving working in the yard, learning about new energy sources and just getting out of debt, which is a stressful, daily reminder of why I am not happy. I am tired of living someone elses' vision of my life. Having JT say what he "prefers" I do with MY time, rubs me the wrong way. Either he is trolling like Monte points out or he has his own agenda in mind. Whichever, I will live my own life thanks.

JT, doesn't this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ost of the TD or coal-to-oil is going to be relatively local. Since it's still oil we're making, we can just use existing pipelines. Pipeline infrastructure will have to continue growing with demand, just as it has in the past.


....and this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m in favor of nobody dying.


......go against your plans of attacking global warming and famine? You are still using more oil with an ever increasing population which you need to feed with depleted land using petroleum products. ????? It is not a perfect world and you can't have it all.

PS Thank you Matt for starting my PO education. :)
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Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:04:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ook mate I suggest you move on.

www.peakoil.com isn't a site for people who don't think PO will occur.
go cheack out www.planetark.com or something and join up with some environmentalists.


Working on a number of climate change boards...

I think this site is about discussing issues related to the peak of conventional oil. Including about what will happen after the peak and what we should be doing about it right now. There's a big difference between preparations, which are another point of discussion, depending on whether you think there's a good chance of a mild recession or whether you think 2006 is the year of Olduvai theory.

There have been any number of threads that more or less amount to 100 people saying "we're doomed! doomed I tells ya! and all nodding their heads in agreement." And if that's your entertainment, that's fine. I've done my research, and since I've concluded there isn't much of a story here, I'll move on soon enough. But not before I make it clear the doomiest of doom scenarios doesn't hold.


You've spent too much time in the General Discussion section and not enough time in the Preparation section. If miscasting those who frequent this board as nothing but "doommongers" provides you with some type of ancedotal evidence to support the idea that this issue is something "that will not happen", well I can't see how it hurts anybody but yourself.

Matt
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Unread postby jtmorgan61 » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:09:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')k so as far as I can tell you say we will be using coal-to-oil and oil shale and TD to make up for short falls between supply and demand until coal/economically recoverable oil shale is used up.

Then we use TD running on waste and hybrid battery technology after that for both electricity generation and transportation?


Sands look better than shale. Dunno if we'll ever use shale, or even significant sands. Part 1 is pretty much right, except that we're not going to run out of coal very soon at all, and I certainly hope we don't burn all of it!

Electricity (over the extremely long run): Efficient renewables with good storage, nuclear reactors (then w/reprocessing, then with breeders - that's 1000's of years with technology we already have). Hopefully fusion or solar power satellites eventually. (I hope) gradually declining use of coal as people develop an environmental consciousness, because we aren't running out of coal reserves anytime soon.

Transportation: Long-range plug in hybrids mean we use very little gas. Eventually battery technology. Perhaps methanol or hydrogen fuel cells way, way out into the future.

We continue to use TD and coal-to-oil to recycle and make plastics.

Population: caps below 9 billion in 2050.
Last edited by jtmorgan61 on Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:19:01, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby Ghog » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:11:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orking on a number of climate change boards...


Provides some links and if people are interested they can go there and assist in benefitting the cause. There are many environmentally conscious posters here who I am sure would be more than happy to help you in your fight.
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Unread postby jtmorgan61 » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:13:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou've spent too much time in the General Discussion section and not enough time in the Preparation section. If miscasting those who frequent this board as nothing but "doommongers" provides you with some type of ancedotal evidence to support the idea that this issue is something "that will not happen", well I can't see how it hurts anybody but yourself.


I've got one person telling me to move on because I'm not a doomer, and this board is for doomers. So I responded to that, and I'm not trying to miscast everyone on this site as a "doomer" (which many people do, in fact, call themselves here).

I'm not trying to back my argument up by casting aspersions. I think it's completely rigorous. General discussion is the place to start because likely scenarios affect preparations.
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Unread postby jtmorgan61 » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:17:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')rovides some links and if people are interested they can go there and assist in benefitting the cause. There are many environmentally conscious posters here who I am sure would be more than happy to help you in your fight.


thanks for the soapbox.

www.climateark.org
www.worldchanging.com (great site, very positive attitude and discussion of pro-environment energy technologies and development)
www.greenpeace.org
www.sierraclub.org
www.vrg.org/nutshell/nutshell.htm
www.evworld.com
www.changingworldtech.com (ok, so that's a TD site, so sue me)
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Unread postby Ghog » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:19:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')lectricity (over the extremely long run): Efficient renewables with good storage, nuclear reactors (then w/reprocessing, then with breeders - that's 1000's of years with technology we already have). Hopefully fusion or solar power satellites eventually. (I hope) gradually declining use of coal as people develop an environmental consciousness, because we aren't running out of coal reserves anytime soon


What am I missing here? You speak of the environment and fighting for it's cause, yet you advocate more oil (through TD), nuclear and coal (which you HOPE people stop using quickly?). And this is long-term? You know TD cannot destroy radioactive wastes right? <cough> climate change <cough>. Someone help me out.
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Unread postby Raxozanne » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:20:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', '
')Electricity (over the extremely long run): Efficient renewables with good storage, nuclear reactors (then w/reprocessing, then with breeders - that's 1000's of years with technology we already have). Hopefully fusion or solar power satellites eventually. (I hope) gradually declining use of coal as people develop an environmental consciousness, because we aren't running out of coal reserves anytime soon.

Transportation: Long-range plug in hybrids mean we use very little gas. Eventually battery technology. Perhaps methanol or hydrogen fuel cells way, way out into the future.

We continue to use TD and coal-to-oil to recycle and make plastics.

Population: caps below 9 billion in 2050.


This is what I don't agree on I'm afraid.

Firstly I won't place any bets on fusion because it has never been done.

Nucleur breeders I don't know much about,. I've read confliction reports that they don't actually produce much energy and they still need plutonium or uranmium?

Hybrids: I don't believe that hydrogen will ever be practical and methanol would be suicidal.

And coal will probably last less than 25 years once it has completely replaced oil so I couldn't count on it in the long run.

Solar satillietes would need be costly both in terms of price and resources to put into space.
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Unread postby honeylocust » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:21:41

Here is an interesting question.

Let us assume that it is possible to scale up coal to oil, tar sands, TD, etc. to produce 120 mbpd by 2020 after conventional depletion is accounted for.

Let us also assume that it is possible to scale up bicycles, trains, permaculture, redistribution of wealth, family planning, etc. to avoid dieoff, collapse, etc. BUT, people lose a significant portion of their modern comforts in the process.

Both shaky assumptions, perhaps. But, which one should we do?

That's what I thought. :twisted:
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Unread postby Jaymax » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:23:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', 'L')ook mate I suggest you move on.

www.peakoil.com isn't a site for people who don't think PO will occur.
go cheack out www.planetark.com or something and join up with some environmentalists.


Group-think gooooood...
Challenging ideas baaaad...


--J
Doomerosity now at 2 (occasionaly 3, was 4)

Currently (mostly) taking a break from posting at po.com. Don't trust the false prophets of doom - keep reading, keep learning, keep challenging your assum
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Unread postby Ghog » Sat 30 Jul 2005, 18:27:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')rovides some links and if people are interested they can go there and assist in benefitting the cause. There are many environmentally conscious posters here who I am sure would be more than happy to help you in your fight.


thanks for the soapbox.

www.climateark.org
www.worldchanging.com (great site, very positive attitude and discussion of pro-environment energy technologies and development)
www.greenpeace.org
www.sierraclub.org
www.vrg.org/nutshell/nutshell.htm
www.evworld.com
www.changingworldtech.com (ok, so that's a TD site, so sue me)


How about some links to your direct involvement? People are now expecting you to be leading the way in these areas, because of your passion for promoting them on PO.com. Show us your work elsewhere. What have you been doing to further the cause on those sites?
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