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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 30 Aug 2020, 11:04:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'W')ith new data for the years 2014-2020 the HG diagram looks this way:

-- revised chart --

Remember: The HG price projection has been set up in 2014.

Congratulations -- with the revised chart you've shown that shorty's projections have COMPLETELY broken down from being anything approaching a smooth curve following ANYTHING he projected at all.

Which makes the whole ETP thing, same as it ever was, ABSOLUTE NONSENSE.

So since there IS no "curve" to follow, and only a wildly, random, oscillating price history based on things like news, technology, supply and demand, etc. -- WHAT ARE YOU PROJECTING NOW? And WHY should anyone listen to whatever your newly manufactured guess is NOW?

Oh, and only discussing and focusing on the 29% line, where shorty referenced only the 38% line in his bogus predictions / defense of the ETP form 2015 on, tries to buy you another decade. :roll: :lol:

Why not, say, get a life? The world and crude oil will go on after COVID-19. And WTI is doing JUST FINE even in the middle of COVID-19.

And currently, the WTI futures (WTI was the reference price ETP used in shorty's "paper") are projecting significantly higher prices as a trend, over the next decade. Not exactly forecasting global economic collapse. :idea:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy ... crude.html
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 31 Aug 2020, 13:34:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'W')ith new data for the years 2014-2020 the HG diagram looks this way:

Image

Remember: The HG price projection has been set up in 2014.


That is a scary chart.

The Etp Model is close to 100% perfect and the MAP is very close, but not perfect. I don't expect the MAP to be perfect. Things beyond the Energy Halfway Point is going to be chaotic.

Maybe shortonoil did right by not including human reaction to the Energy Halfway Point. The central banks have gone overdrive the last decade and a half. How do you predict that with precision?

I don't want the Etp Model to be correct. I'm not suicidal.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 31 Aug 2020, 14:22:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', '
') The Etp Model is close to 100% perfect and the MAP is very close


Get your eyes checked.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 31 Aug 2020, 17:06:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asg70', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', '
') The Etp Model is close to 100% perfect and the MAP is very close


Get your eyes checked.

+ 1

And more importantly, get enough of a clue to be able to understand what you're looking at, just a little.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 31 Aug 2020, 17:43:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', '
')That is a scary chart.


Did you soil yourself when it said oil was going to be $0/bbl aways back? Maybe you just scare easy? Maybe that is why Short is trying to remove all evidence of this kind of stuff from the net, folks are terrified of silly prognostications?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', '
')Maybe shortonoil did right by not including human reaction to the Energy Halfway Point.


Because of Short's cherry picked data and random line fitting, maybe he doesn't have any more clue as to what or where an energy halfway point is than he can get a paper through review?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', '
')I don't want the Etp Model to be correct.


It wasn't the last time folks thought it was, what makes you think it has improved?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Tue 01 Sep 2020, 13:51:10

@ Yoshua,

you make me happy, one person on this subblog with a functioning brain.
I have the impression, OS, asg and adam (three jesters) have lost all eye functions . They are not capable to recognize if a graph corresponds to a prediction or not. The simple truth is:
Shorty is right and they are wrong.

Sometimes i want to contradict their texts, but they write so much nonsense, that i do not know where to start or to finish. And the jesters do not have the education to understand physics, so each reply is a waste of time.

Have you understood the thermodynamic derivation of https://limitstogrowth.de/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Mar_2020_Thermo_EN_09.pdf ?

The oil price goes down exactly the same way as the HG has projected, maybe with some delay. I am always astonished, how accurate the projection is, despite the fact, that HG had to make a lot of assumptions about things like water cut, efficiency of energy conversion, use of non-oil energy and other.

We have to face the threat that the oil price goes down, and oil production follows. Only some years with oil are left. Cowards cry about doom and hide behind a „law of demand and support“, which is not a law at all (see Feynman on vagueness). I have at least 50 links pointing to wrong price predictions by economists, all speaking of a rising demand and rising prices. All are outdated and wrong.

What to do ? I set up my life in such a way that oil use is minimized. Up to now, i don’t miss anything.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 01 Sep 2020, 14:44:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '@') Yoshua,

you make me happy, one person on this subblog with a functioning brain.
I have the impression, OS, asg and adam (three jesters) have lost all eye functions . They are not capable to recognize if a graph corresponds to a prediction or not. The simple truth is:
Shorty is right and they are wrong.

If you can't do math or concepts or reality, do PURE BULLSHIT.

We'll see where we are in 20201, 2025, and 2029.

Of course, you'll still be prevaricating and MAKING SHIT UP. And I, for one, will continue to be completely unimpressed.

But don't worry. The fast crash doomer fanbois who continue to worship websites which have continually been wrongly spewing pure bullshit for decades will absolutely love you.

And I'm just crushed over your "success". :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 01 Sep 2020, 19:33:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '@') Yoshua,

The simple truth is:
Shorty is right and they are wrong.



Yeah...that is why he welshed on the bet he made where, as it turns out, he demonstrated that he was WRONG.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 03:26:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '@') Yoshua,

The simple truth is:
Shorty is right and they are wrong.



Halliburton going to zero.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhqAaQIXsAA ... name=large
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 03:52:12

The WTI is crashing.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhfNur-X0AI ... name=large
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 08:30:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '@') Yoshua,

The simple truth is:
Shorty is right and they are wrong.



Halliburton going to zero.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhqAaQIXsAA ... name=large


Oh, Haliburton has made it through worse.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 12:39:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yoshua', 'T')he WTI is crashing.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhfNur-X0AI ... name=large

You know, every time clowns like you call a little downward move a "crash", you just become less credible.

For a little perspective, what we had in March and April was a crash. This is a dip or a pullback. Not that I'd expect you to EVER learn, based on your posting history, especially about anything relating to economics.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-cr ... aily-chart
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 12 Sep 2020, 12:49:31

Halliburton going to zero.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhqAaQIXsAA ... name=large[/quote]

First, more useless cherry picking. Haliburton isn't the oil industry.

Second, in the real world, global oil demand has already recovered significantly. What do you think happens in a year or three when COVID-19 is much better understood, managed, etc. globally?

Oh, I know, ETP theory says dooooooooooooooooooooooooom. Luckily for us, economic reality, and its evidence re history and math, says something different, and actually has a good overall track record, unlike ETP nonsense.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

The charts clearly tell the tale, re global consumption reality and the trend, BTW. And, I'll go with the EIA forecasts, coupled with overall COVID-19 news before ETP Bozo chanting until economic doom making oil unaffordable at $2 by the end of 2021 proves I shouldn't. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Tue 22 Sep 2020, 12:05:03

The new data from OPEC MOMR confirm the trend of the previous months.

Image

It's the thermodynamics, stupid.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 22 Sep 2020, 12:33:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', 'T')he new data from OPEC MOMR confirm the trend of the previous months.

Image

It's the thermodynamics, stupid.

Re stupid, look hard in the mirror. NONE of the short term wiggles are about thermodynamics, no matter how many times your ilk bleats about it.

It's about economics, as it CLEARLY has been for quite a few decades now. Supply and demand drives oil economics overall, with a big assist from improving technology, as it has for quite a few decades now.

And for the umpteenth time, as long as our sun is pouring huge amounts of energy onto the earth each and every second, there IS NO short term winding down of energy on earth, re thermodynamics. In fact, since we're learning to use that energy better to create clean and efficient energy re things like solar and wind, short term thermodynamics, re having enough energy to produce the oil we need is becoming LESS of an issue.

Oh, and in case you're worried about having enough energy from the sun, if humans are around in a billion years or so, the problem will be TOO MUCH heat from the sun, the oceans boiling away, etc. Since you think you're so "wise in the ways of science", look at a little overall scientific data.

Not that I'd expect your ignorant ass to ever grasp the obvious, think, or learn.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 22 Sep 2020, 16:26:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')It's the thermodynamics, stupid.


Well now that the leading proponent of that idea has fled the field of battle, welshed on bets related to his thermodynamic ideas that he lost because it didn't work, and is now erasing all evidence of how his basic ignorance of same reflects on his technical understanding of the topic....I'd have to say...PROVE IT.

Image
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 24 Sep 2020, 10:11:01

Interestingly, Peak Car was about June 2018, slightly before Peak Oil in November 2018.

Image
This diagram shows the sum of car sales in the EU, USA, China and India.
After June 2028 the worldwide sales of cars began to decline. Covid 19 has accelerated the decline.

It's the thermodynamics, stupid.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby dirtyharry » Thu 24 Sep 2020, 11:10:10

Badiula , I follow your posts . Peak cars in 2028 ? You are wrong . Maybe you made an error typing and it should be peak cars 2018 . The world is on its way to bankruptcy . Affordability is the issue .
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby Baduila » Thu 24 Sep 2020, 11:41:12

Dirtyharry, yes it's a typing error. Peak car was in 2018. It's all a thing of the past.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 24 Sep 2020, 15:13:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baduila', '
')It's the thermodynamics, stupid.


Unless your thermodynamics are stupid. In which case you welsh on bets, hide the written evidence of your ignorance, basically crawl back under a rock and hope folks don't notice when you try and sneak back in.

Image
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