[MonteQuest]

Wind and solar are also lagging players. In its latest market forecast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts modern bioenergy will represent the biggest growth in renewable energy sources between now and 2023. According to the IEA, bioenergy will remain the largest source of renewable energy over the next five years due to its widespread use in heat and transportation, sectors in which wind and solar currently play a much smaller role. The IEA shows that modern bioenergy, excluding the traditional use of wood, dung, etc, was responsible for half of all renewable energy consumed last year, providing four times the contribution of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind combined. Bioenergy in the form of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels will account for 30 percent of the growth in renewable consumption through 2023. “We expect modern bioenergy will continue to lead the field, and has huge prospects for further growth’—IEA

Feeding our food and other animals' food to our machines is not the right path, either. We already appropriate 40% of NPP to human use.

[MonteQuest]

As to renewables displacing coal, that’s going to be a heavy lift going forward. While hundreds of coal-fired power plants are being canceled, there are still many being built or planned. With renewables only meeting 25% of new energy demand, something has to fill the gap. Coal is one, along with NG, and biofuels.

According to Global Coal Plant Tracker there are currently 1,035 coal-fired power plants under construction, permitted, in pre-permit, or announced. Most will be built in countries like China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam.

385 under construction
190 permitted
248 in pre-permit
212 announced.

Global Coal Plant Tracker

With the Covid-19 demand destruction, no one knows where this goes. But with modern renewables growing their share of the overall energy pie just .3%/yr, and the demand for energy projected to double by 2050, it begs the question—just where will this new energy supply will come from?

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I')RENA and REN21 both claim that Hydro is around 47% of all renewable capacity.

[REAL Green]

I really don't think hydro should be considered renewable except in rare cases. Much of the time beautiful water sources are destroyed to supply man with power to waste on his petty mind games. Not to mention how drenched these huge projects are in their buildout phase.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '2')6.2% is the measure of actual generation renewables produce, relative to the entire amount of electricity generated on the planet. This means that roughly 1/4th of all electricity generated in the world comes from renewables.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', 'I') really don't think hydro should be considered renewable except in rare cases. Much of the time beautiful water sources are destroyed to supply man with power to waste on his petty mind games. Not to mention how drenched these huge projects are in their buildout phase.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'R')EN21 says fossil fuels provided 79.5% in 2017 and 79.7% in 2018. Renewables decreased their share of the pie .2%.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')es, and the ecological damage is huge. I was a National Park Ranger at both Glen Canyon and Lake Mead NRA's. The energy we robbed from the water was already being used by other downstream consumers--and I don't mean humans. There are no free lunches.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'R')EN21 says fossil fuels provided 79.5% in 2017 and 79.7% in 2018. Renewables decreased their share of the pie .2%.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')es, and the ecological damage is huge. I was a National Park Ranger at both Glen Canyon and Lake Mead NRA's. The energy we robbed from the water was already being used by other downstream consumers--and I don't mean humans. There are no free lunches.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')f course, it happens almost every year as renewables have gained more market share. In 2018, it was 73.8% and in 2015 76.3%, 78.4% in 2012.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')f course, it happens almost every year as renewables have gained more market share. In 2018, it was 73.8% and in 2015 76.3%, 78.4% in 2012.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')ost of the gains were the result of hydro projects, wind and biomass.

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')ost of the gains were the result of hydro projects, wind and biomass.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'M')ost of the gains were the result of hydro projects, wind and biomass.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')n that point, I don't recall it ever happening. If FF's share of the generation pie shrank in 2019, was it entirely from a growth in renewable capacity? Or were there other factors at play that declined FF use and allowed renewables a leg up? Something to look at.

[REAL Green]

"Care to elaborate? Not sure I am following you." this would not take on the thread for some reason:

My point is a speculation that growth will not return to pre-pandemic levels. This means excess capacity but also lack of capacity depending on the economic sector. Demand shocks affecting manufactures and gluts affecting commodities. Energy will likely initially suffer a glut that will damage future supply but a glut nonetheless. This is not supportive of renewable growth. If this is the case, nobody really knows at this point, then a growth of 30% of renewables that are growing is different than 30% of negative renewable growth. It is just an observation of what is possible. There is a lag effect people are trying to ignore that is surely coming kind of like the side effects people have after recovery from a grave illness. Growth may not materialize as many feel. We are habituated to growth and this is natural to feel there is a recovery over the horizon. If growth is over then renewable growth is likely over too. In this case biomass may dominate the renewable mix with solar and wind value chains diminished.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nd again, wind and solar are really only addressing about 25% of energy demand via electricity. REN21 says it's just 17%. 83% of demand is for transportation, heating and cooling, which renewable electricity has barely penetrated. This is why the IEA sees biomass, rather than wind/solar being 30% of new renewable energy's growth. That will be an ecological disaster.

[REAL Green]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', 'I')f growth is over then renewable growth is likely over too. In this case biomass may dominate the renewable mix with solar and wind value chains diminished.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('REAL Green', '&')quot;Care to elaborate? Not sure I am following you." this would not take on the thread for some reason:

My point is a speculation that growth will not return to pre-pandemic levels. This means excess capacity but also lack of capacity depending on the economic sector. Demand shocks affecting manufactures and gluts affecting commodities. Energy will likely initially suffer a glut that will damage future supply but a glut nonetheless. This is not supportive of renewable growth. If this is the case, nobody really knows at this point, then a growth of 30% of renewables that are growing is different than 30% of negative renewable growth. It is just an observation of what is possible. There is a lag effect people are trying to ignore that is surely coming kind of like the side effects people have after recovery from a grave illness. Growth may not materialize as many feel. We are habituated to growth and this is natural to feel there is a recovery over the horizon. If growth is over then renewable growth is likely over too. In this case biomass may dominate the renewable mix with solar and wind value chains diminished.